Oklahoma vs. Texas Predictions
The Oklahoma Sooners are undefeated heading into this year’s meeting with the Texas Longhorns in the Red River Rivalry. The two will clash at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas on Saturday, October 11. All year, we’re going to be diving into some of the biggest college football games of the season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds and picks for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 7 College Football Betting Hub for a look at all of our college football betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How to Watch Oklahoma vs. Texas
Where: Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas
When: Saturday, October 11 at 3:30 pm ET
Channel: ABC
Oklahoma vs. Texas Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Thursday, October 9. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Oklahoma -112, Texas -108
Spread: Oklahoma -1.5 (-102), Texas +1.5 (-118)
Total: Over 44.5 (-115), Under 44.5 (-105)
Oklahoma vs. Texas Analysis
John Mateer is back for Oklahoma. Before injuring his thumb against the Auburn Tigers, Mateer had thrown for 1,215 yards with six touchdowns and three picks on the season. He also had 190 rushing yards and another five scores on the ground. The dual-threat quarterback was the Heisman Trophy favorite when he went down, so there’s naturally plenty of excitement with him back on the field. However, it does feel like things are getting a little out of hand.
Before it was clear that Mateer was returning, the Longhorns were 2.5-point favorites in this game. There were also oddsmakers that suggested Texas would move to -5.5 if Mateer was completely ruled out. Well, all of a sudden, Oklahoma is favored beat Texas in Dallas, where the Longhorns should still have a small edge in crowd support. I’m not sure that makes much sense.
For as good as Mateer’s traditional numbers look, the team is just 48th in the nation in EPA per play (0.05). The Sooners are 48th in Dropback EPA per play (0.15) and 102nd in Rush EPA per play (-0.05). The latter has also been a major problem, with Oklahoma failing to get any of its running backs going. And I’m just not expecting things to get any easier now.
Texas is 20th in the nation in EPA per play allowed (-0.21), and the team is top-20 in both Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.21) and Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.22). That said, you shouldn’t read too much into the Longhorns not showing up against the Florida Gators last week. Florida was coming off a bye week, so the team was extra prepared. Plus, that was a trap spot for Texas, as the team probably expected to win before getting ready for this massive tilt.
Mateer should make some plays in this game — that’s what he does. I just wouldn’t be surprised if he’s largely kept in check, and the Longhorns should also do a good job of keeping everybody else down.
Of course, Texas is going to have to find a way to score. And given the way Arch Manning has played this season, there’s no guarantee that’ll happen against an Oklahoma defense that is No. 1 in college football in EPA per play allowed (-0.34). But we did see the Auburn Tigers move the ball against this Sooners defense, and there are similarities between the two offenses. Manning, like Jackson Arnold, is a big quarterback that can make plays with his legs. And the Longhorns have the ability to pick up chunk yardage between the tackles in this one. That said, if Manning can just avoid a disastrous game as a passer, there’s a chance Texas puts up more points than expected.
It’s also hard not to like Steve Sarkisian a little more than Brent Venables, even if this has been a poor start for Texas. The Sooners are just 2-6 both straight-up and against the spread in games with lines of +3 to -3 under Venables. They’re also 3-11 SU and 5-9 ATS when facing teams with winning percentages of 60% to 75% since Venables took over. If that’s not enough, they’re 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS when taking on teams that allow 4.5 or fewer yards per play. Meanwhile, under Sarkisian, Texas is 3-0 both SU and ATS when coming off an upset loss on the road.
Oklahoma vs. Texas Prediction
It isn’t very comforting backing the Texas offense right now, but this defense is still very good and I’m not sure the Oklahoma offense is as good as some of the highlight plays might suggest. This should be a game in which the Longhorns keep the Sooners from going wild, and I like Texas to ride a productive running game to a win.
I also briefly considered going Under, as the defenses are the best units on the field in this one. However, there’s a little too much offensive talent out there to play the Under on 44.5 comfortably.
Bet: Texas ML (-102)
