Old Dominion Monarchs:
Old Dominion’s sixth win of last season is still an absolute mystery, even to those who saw it happen live. The Monarchs scored 11 points in the final 1:37 against Georgia State, including a walk-off rushing TD on fourth down. They kicked a game-winning field goal at the buzzer the week prior to get to five wins. Say what you will about ODU, but this is a team that downright battles for head coach Ricky Rahne.
Thanks to some heavy losses via the portal, the Monarchs face an uphill battle to return to a bowl game. The schedule is also unkind to a rebuilding roster with only two home games prior to October 19.
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Offense
QB and leader Grant Wilson is back at the helm, but he won’t see a whole lot of familiar faces in the offensive meetings. Wilson wasn’t that great last season, as he had a 17/8 TD/INT ratio, but was sacked 52 times and only threw for 2,149 yards on 312 attempts. ODU relied heavily on the run with 474 carries. Leading rusher Kadarius Calloway hit the portal after ripping off 7.1 yards per carry. Keshawn Wicks and Obie Sanni are gone too, leaving Wilson, who had 2.2 yards per carry, as the leading returnee.
The wide receiver room had some losses as well. So did the offensive line, but after giving up a nation-high 62 sacks, that might not be a bad thing. Second-year OC Kevin Decker doesn’t really have a lot to work with here.
Defense
You actually have to give the defense a ton of credit. Last year’s group actually finished in the top 40 in yards per play allowed, despite facing the second-most plays against. Only Washington faced more and they played two more games. ODU’s defense faced 977 plays in 13 games, or an average of 75.2 snaps against. That would explain how Jason Henderson was able to rack up 170 tackles to lead the nation in tackles per game with over 14.
Wayne Matthews III wasn’t far behind with 135 tackles and over 10 per game, but he’s now at Michigan State. Terry Jones Jr. also had over 100 tackles, but he’s at Indiana. The entire secondary needs to be rebuilt for the Monarchs and the pass rush only generated 19 sacks last season, so those guys will be under fire.
Outlook
ODU has a puncher’s chance in the majority of their games this season, but I only have them favored in four games and by nothing bigger than 1.5 points. I have them down for 4.07 wins, as they are only higher than a touchdown dog three times. They’ll need some games to fall their way to have any hopes of getting back to a bowl and I don’t trust them, even in a weaker Sun Belt Conference this season.
Pick: Under 4.5 Wins
