Week 8 College Football: Oregon vs. Purdue

A Friday four-pack will set the stage for the weekend, as we have a very busy evening on October 18. Florida State vs. Duke, Oregon vs. Purdue, Oklahoma State vs. BYU, and Fresno State vs. Nevada gives us three Power Four games and one from the Mountain West with action running deep into the night, as the kickoffs in Provo and Reno are after the 10 p.m. hour ET.

I’ve got strong opinions on a couple of games and thoughts on the others, starting with Oregon vs. Purdue.

 

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Oregon Ducks (-27.5, 60.5) at Purdue Boilermakers

8 p.m. ET (FOX)

Oregon hits the Big Ten highway for a short-week tilt in West Lafayette against Purdue. A lot has been made this season of teams traveling a long way for conference games and the Ducks are outside the Pacific Time Zone for the first time this season. Big Ten teams going at least two time zones are 3-10 SU and 4-9 ATS per regular VSiN guest Brad Powers.

Oregon’s road games this season have been an easy flight to LAX to take on UCLA and a 45-minute drive to Corvallis to face rival Oregon State. They ultimately pummeled the Beavers, but that was a 7-7 game after a quarter and the UCLA game was 7-3. If nothing else, we could see a slow start from the Ducks and that should help the team catching nearly four touchdowns plus PATs.

What should also help is that Purdue may have found something in Ryan Browne. The redshirt freshman threw for 297 and ran for 118 last week in the 50-49 loss to Illinois. The Purdue defense is bad and that’s a bad look for former DC Ryan Walters, whose time as the head coach of the Boilermakers is coming to an end soon. But, Browne injected some life into an offense that already fired OC Graham Harrell and scored 44 points in four FBS games prior to the Illini effort.

Maybe I’m drinking too much of the Kool-Aid, as Purdue is still not a good football team and Oregon is elite, but the Ducks just beat Ohio State, are on a short week with their first real road trip, and have exceeded 37 points just once. Unless they plan to hold Purdue to single digits, they’ll need more than that to cover this one and I’m not so sure they get there given the circumstances.

Also, don’t expect Jordan Burch to be out there, as many reports suggested that his knee injury was worse than what was publicly stated last week. With a dual-threat QB in Browne, limited tape, and Oregon’s top pass rusher compromised at best and out at worst, I think Purdue can keep it close.

Pick: Purdue +27.5

Other Friday Games

Florida State Seminoles at Duke Blue Devils (-3, 42.5): The downfall of the Seminoles is no secret and here they are as a short underdog heading to Durham. FSU is 1-5. Duke is 5-1. Both teams are on 12 days worth of rest here and maybe that’s a bigger positive for a Duke team clearly invested in this season, whereas Florida State players are probably thinking about where to transfer.

Maybe the Seminoles just don’t care, but Mike Norvell’s team has played the sixth-ranked schedule in the country per Jeff Sagarin. Duke has played the 97th, the worst SOS in the ACC. Florida State made the switch from DJ Uiagalelei to Brock Glenn during the SMU game and Glenn played well, all things considered, against Clemson. With more first-team reps, I think he’s got a shot to play well here and I like Florida State against a paper tiger Duke team.

Pick: Florida State +3

Oklahoma State Cowboys at BYU Cougars (-9.5, 52.5): Such a fascinating game here. I keep hearing that BYU is a regression candidate and an overrated team. I don’t know. This is a top-10 defense by yards per play and an offense with over six yards per play. Oklahoma State has given up over 6.5 yards per play and the offense is lagging a bit.

Okie State is 0-3 in Big 12 play and has been outgained by nearly 1.5 yards per play. I understand why this line is climbing. BYU may get tripped up at some point, but I don’t think it’s this week and, honestly, they’re on a crash course with Texas Tech or Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship game, as they should be favored the rest of the way.

Fresno State Bulldogs (-2.5, 50.5) at Nevada Wolf Pack: The 10:30 p.m. ET kick in Reno is unlikely to get many eyes, but a mild upset here from Nevada and Jeff Choate’s team will be sitting very pretty for a shocking bowl game appearance this season. Last week’s win over Oregon State was a big one, as Nevada will play 13 games this season and has a legitimate shot at 7-6 with a win here.

The Wolf Pack scored 42 points with 69 passing yards last week. They had 353 rushing yards and 8.4 yards per carry. We’ll see if they can run it down Fresno’s throat, much like UNLV did, or if the Bulldogs can step on defense like they did last week. They lost to Washington State, but held the Cougs to just 4.3 yards per play. No bet from me here.

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