Oregon/Washington Rematch for Pac-12 Title, College Football Playoff Berth
Beating the same team twice in a season is no easy feat, and the Washington Huskies are about to attempt just that this week as they’ll rematch against the Oregon Ducks, whom the Huskies already thwarted once earlier this season in an instant classic that came down to the wire.
What will happen in the rematch?
Odds as of 11/27, 8:40 a.m. PT
Obviously, you’d rather have the win in hand and be sitting undefeated as Washington is, but teams that play with fire end up getting burned at some point and the argument could be made that UW has been playing with fire since mid-October. Over the Huskies’ last 8 games (all Pac 12 games), Kalen DeBoer’s team is only winning by six points per game.
Now, there is certainly an argument to be made that they should get the credit for being able to gut out close games and find a way to win; however, the counter to that would be that variance has been on their side throughout this run, and variance has a way of regressing to the mean. So what does that mean for this highly-anticipated rematch?
The line is currently sitting with the Ducks as a 9.5 point favorite, with an O/U of 66.5. How is the team that lost the first go around favored by almost double digits, you ask? Well, in addition to the aforementioned lackluster performances by the Huskies since then, Oregon has gone 6-0 in its last six games (all Pac 12 games), winning by an average of 26 points per game.
From a power rating perspective, Oregon sits at No. 2 in my T Shoe Index, while Washington is merely No. 14. Oregon has a top five unit on both sides of the ball by numbers – No. 4 on offense and No. 5 on defense – while Washington sits at No. 13 on offense and No. 30 on defense. All of that nets out to a projection of Oregon -10, with a projected total of 56, so there would seem to be some betting value on the under.
This will be an epic clash of two great, playoff-worthy teams; however, a storyline nearly as impactful in this game is the QB battle of Washington’s Michael Penix, who was at one time the odds-on favorite to win the Heisman, vs Oregon’s Bo Nix, who has had a stellar season and is currently the -180 favorite to win the award. It’s tough to see either of these candidates winning the award with a loss to the other in this game, which only amplifies the stakes even more.
From a betting perspective, if you think Washington is going to win again in the rematch, your best bet would be to buy a Michael Penix Heisman ticket at +1600 rather than a Washington ML ticket at +255 (assuming you agree the winner of this game is the Heisman frontrunner), or at the very least, split your unit and buy both.
A championship in a conference’s last year, a College Football Playoff berth, and a Heisman trophy are all on the line Friday night in Las Vegas. This is what college football is all about.
Lean: Under 56