Penn State Nittany Lions:
While there is no shame in being the Big Ten’s third-or fourth-best team, it’s time for coach James Franklin to start beating the heavyweights and stop talking about it. The Nittany Lions, who have dropped seven straight to Ohio State and three in a row to Michigan, were outclassed by their rivals last year. Franklin has a better team, especially offensively, and an easier schedule this season. Penn State hosts the Buckeyes in Happy Valley in early November.
Offense
The numbers say Drew Allar exceeded most expectations as a freshman by passing for 25 touchdowns with two interceptions. But those numbers are hiding a lie. In losses to the Buckeyes and Wolverines, Allar combined to go 28-for-64 with only 261 yards passing. Franklin wanted to shake up the offense and hired coordinator Andy Kotelnicki from Kansas. The creative Kotelnicki and a maturing Allar should be a nice combination. Expect a balanced and powerful attack that features big-time running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. Allar has a couple of reliable targets in wideout Julian Fleming, an Ohio State transfer, and veteran tight end Tyler Warren. The line will continue to be a strength despite losing left tackle Olu Fashanu, a first-round pick by the Jets.
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Defense
Manny Diaz, who coordinated one of the nation’s top defenses that pitched three shutouts last season, took the head-coaching job at Duke. Franklin hired former Indiana head coach Tom Allen, who’s an emotional basket case and a question mark until proven otherwise. Junior end Abdul Carter should be a first-team all-conference standout for a dominant line, but the Lions are inexperienced and appear to lack elite talent at some spots. If youngsters emerge around Carter, middle linebacker Kobe King and safety Kevin Winston, this will be a typically tough Penn State defense.
Outlook
Franklin, 21-5 the past two seasons, is a polarizing coach who recruits at a high level and has a strong track record as a favorite, yet he often mismanages games and can’t get over the hump against Ohio State. He gets a home date with the Buckeyes and misses Michigan, Oregon and Iowa on the schedule this season. The most difficult road tests (West Virginia, USC and Wisconsin) are hurdles the Lions are good enough to clear. Nine wins would be a disappointment. Franklin should go at least 10-2 with a favorable schedule, so expect a playoff appearance.
Pick: Over 10 Wins
