Pitt vs. East Carolina
Football fans can post up on the couch all day on Saturday and catch up a bit from the holiday hustle and bustle. We have college football bowl games all day plus a couple of NFL games on December 27, making for a great day to just do nothing except bet sports, eat junk food, and gorge on your beverage of choice. It might be hard to do the last two with Pitt vs. East Carolina, as it will be an 11 a.m. ET start time in the Go Bowling Military Bowl, but this is the kind of day we can apply “airport rules”.
Bettors should always be on the lookout for big absences and one in this game has altered the line, as East Carolina QB Katin Houser is in the transfer portal. Pitt will be without their second-leading rusher and second-leading tackler. You can also mark two more spots on the bowl betting Bingo card, as both of ECU’s coordinators have left for new jobs.
Odds from Circa Sports as of December 23, 3:30 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
Go Bowling Military Bowl: Pitt (-10, 56) vs. East Carolina
Saturday, Dec. 27, 11 a.m. ET (ESPN)
The Military Bowl is the first of eight bowl games that will be played on Saturday and the only one with two 8-4 teams. The Pirates have won bowl games to get to 8-5 in 2024 and 2022, but they haven’t had nine wins in a season since 2013, so perhaps that is a bit of a talking point for head coach Blake Harrell, who was elevated from DC to HC last season when Mike Houston was fired.
Harrell will be without DC Josh Aldridge, who is now on Brian Hartline’s staff at American Conference rival UCF, and also without OC John David Baker, who has returned to Ole Miss. Jordan Davis, who was the OC at North Texas, is a fascinating hire, but one that won’t have any impact on this game, as he’s coaching the Mean Green in their New Mexico Bowl appearance. As far as the defense goes, Harrell’s fingerprints were all over it anyway, so not much should change.
We’ll see how Harrell and the offensive coaches handle the absence of Houser, who had 408 of the team’s 423 pass attempts, posting a 19/6 TD/INT ratio with a 65.9% completion rate and 3,300 yards. It would make sense to give the reps to Chaston Ditta, who was 4-of-7 for 38 yards and a TD in mop-up work, including the early-season blowout of Campbell. The freshman from Austin, TX was a three-star per 247Sports and had offers from North Texas and James Madison, among others, including Navy, where this bowl game will be played.
The other option is 12-time transfer Mike Wright, who has been playing college football since 2020. He’s played all over the place for the Pirates this season, including a few snaps at QB, which was his primary position at his previous stops. Either way, this spot looks like a weakness for ECU, especially with WR Yannick Smith (44-583-5) and TE Joyvontay Conner (23-333-3) not playing.
On the plus side, most of the defense remains intact and Harrell is a very sharp defensive mind. His Pirates finished the regular season in the top 40 in yards per play allowed. With the offensive side of the ball a big unknown, that unit will have to stop a Pitt offense that was pretty mid, but that was also at the Power Four level. Mason Heintschel took over for Eli Holstein and completed 63.8% of his passes with a 15/7 TD/INT ratio, but he was sacked 30 times. The Pirates averaged 2.5 sacks per game, so that’s what they’ll hope for and then some here.
Ja’Kyrian Turner averaged 5.3 yards per carry, but the Panthers only had 3.6 YPC on average. They were able to create explosives in the passing game, though, and their top three WR all averaged at least 14 yards per reception during the campaign.
Pat Narduzzi also got what he wanted from the defense, as they allowed fewer than five yards per play and really only got gashed by Miami and Notre Dame after setting into the season following a 2-2 start. It was the first time since the 2020 COVID season that the Panthers allowed fewer than five yards per play.
Pitt vs. East Carolina Military Bowl Prediction
Harrell and the Pirates upset NC State last season 26-21 in the Military Bowl, so they do have recent history with knocking off an ACC opponent. Despite Narduzzi’s defensive reputation and acumen, their bowl games have been on the higher-scoring side, though last year’s 48-46 game was decided in the sixth overtime. It was still 30-30 at the end of regulation, so Pitt’s last four bowl games under Narduzzi have had 94, 72, 52, and 64 points. Just some food for thought. A chance of rain and temps in the low 40s make up a damp forecast.
We’re giving a pick on every bowl game and some will be stronger than others. I do think Harrell is a good coach and the Pirates should have a good gameplan, but with an unproven, unknown QB and a Pitt defense that allowed just 2.83 yards per carry, I’d rather lay it than take it.
Pick: Pitt -10
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