Rice vs. Texas State
Technically, we still have two CFP semifinal games and the National Championship left, but for all intents and purposes, the last day of bowl season is January 2 and we have four matchups featuring teams that have waited a very long time to play. The Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl kicks off the day’s action with Rice vs. Texas State.
Lone Star State bragging rights are on the line in Fort Worth between the Owls (Houston) and Bobcats (San Marcos) as Rice snuck into the bowl season at 5-7 because some other teams with 6+ wins declined the opportunity to participate. While a winning season is not possible for Scott Abell in Year 1, making it to a bowl game on the strength of APR scores is a big accomplishment academically and athletically for Rice.
Odds from Circa Sports as of December 29, 4:45 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Rice vs. Texas State (-14, 57)
Friday, Jan. 2, 1 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Rice had two cracks to earn a bowl berth on their athletic merits and not their academic ones, but after picking up their fifth win against UAB, they lost by a combined 88-27 to North Texas and South Florida. But, it is kind of fitting that the strong APR (Academic Progress Rate) numbers got the Owls into a bowl because it is a very tough school to recruit for due to their academic requirements.
Mike Bloomgren got the Owls to a bowl in 2022 and 2023, but they lost 38-24 and 45-21, with the most recent game coming against Texas State in the First Responder Bowl. Those were Rice’s first two bowl appearances since 2014, which is also the last time that they won a bowl game.
After this game, Texas State will move to the Pac-12. Perhaps that’s why GJ Kinne has stuck around with the Bobcats, as jobs have opened left and right for the former Tulsa QB to consider. Back-to-back 8-5 seasons with wins in the First Responder Bowl have marked the only two bowl victories for the Bobcats, who joined FBS in 2012. Kinne’s crew needs a win here for another season over .500, as they started 3-1, but then lost five straight before rallying with three straight wins by 27, 17, and 23 points to go bowling.
Abell was hired from Davidson, where he ran a version of the triple-option. The Owls come into the bowl game sixth in rushing attempts as one of six teams with over 600. Two of the teams with more are service academies. Four of the five have played 13 or 14 games. The Bobcats have actually run the football a lot more this season than they had in Kinne’s previous two seasons and they were much more efficient than the Owls in that department.
Rice averaged just 4.25 yards per carry, which ranked below the national average. Texas State rushed for 5.11 yards and had 14 more rushing touchdowns during the regular season. They actually sit just outside the top 25 in rush attempts this season, a nod to how much more they did run it.
The run did open up the pass, as the Bobcats enter this game as one of seven teams in the nation with a completion rate over 70%. QB Brad Jackson didn’t create a ton of explosive plays, but completed over 71% of his passes with an 18/7 TD/INT ratio. He is also the team’s second-leading rusher with 692 yards and leading touchdown guy with 16. Fortunately for Texas State, 1,000-yard rusher Lincoln Pare and 1,100-yard receiver Beau Sparks will both play.
Rice didn’t have skill players with numbers like that, especially at the wide receiver position, but the biggest story here is that QB Chase Jenkins isn’t going to play. Jenkins is in the transfer portal after rushing for 351 yards and throwing for 1,025. He had a 9/2 TD/INT ratio and maybe the sophomore from Katy, TX wants to be able to throw the ball more.
Quarterbacks are in short supply for the Owls, as Patrick Crayton Jr. and Lucas Scheerhorn are the only options with primary backup Drew Devillier also in the portal. Collectively, those two have 10 pass attempts and 16 rush attempts this season. We’ll see a lot of Quinton Jackson here, as he led the team with 4.9 yards per carry.
Neither team played well defensively, as Texas State allowed 5.68 YPP and Rice allowed 6.28. Given that Texas State has mostly their full complement of players on offense and Rice does not, that’s how this line has gotten to where it is. Rice also only forced six takeaways this season, neutralizing how they only turned the ball over eight times themselves. Texas State has only forced nine takeaways.
Rice vs. Texas State Armed Forces Bowl Prediction
The quarterback is the most important player in any offense, but that gets magnified in an option offense. Rice will be forced to turn to two very inexperienced options here and Texas State has a mobile QB in Jackson with good passing numbers. There should be a noticeable talent gap between these two teams, even if Texas State underperformed during the regular season.
Pick: Texas State -14
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the college football games on our Pro Picks Page.
See our Bowl Game Betting Hub for more previews and predictions.
