Ohio State vs. Oregon

It is amazing what one good performance can do for a team.

Two weeks ago, the conversations around Ohio State were about the pressure the Buckeyes faced playing at home after an embarrassing loss to Michigan. Would the fans boo the home team in a playoff game? Would Ryan Day be fired if Ohio State lost to Tennessee?

 

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Well, the Buckeyes quelled the haters with a dominant win over the Volunteers. Now, not only has the noise ceased, but Ohio State is favored over the top-seeded Oregon Ducks despite having lost to them in Eugene back in October.

Let’s break it all down and see if there’s a good bet to be made.

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Rose Bowl: Ohio State Buckeyes (-2.5, 55) vs. Oregon Ducks

How To Watch The Rose Bowl

When: Wednesday, January 1st, 5:00 p.m. ET

How: ESPN

Where: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA

Not much separated these two teams when they met in the regular season. Ohio State lost by just a point, but had the ball and a chance to take the lead in the waning seconds. In fact, the Buckeyes probably feel like they let an opportunity slip away at Autzen Stadium that evening.

The Ducks stole quite a few possessions in the first meeting. A fumble from Quinshon Judkins set up a 28-yard touchdown drive for Oregon, and after allowing a touchdown drive Ohio State then failed to recover an onside kick which led to a field goal drive. In totality, the Buckeyes were just 4-of-12 on third downs and turned the ball over twice in a one-score game.

Both teams were very successful on offense in the first meeting, and that likely occurs once again in Pasadena, where the weather sets up nicely for a high-scoring affair. Oregon averaged 7.3 yards per play in the first meeting. That is an extremely high mark against a defense which comes into this game as the best unit in the country in EPA per play allowed. Ohio State averaged 6.8 yards per play the first time around as well, and it should be expected that it can replicate what it did once again. 

If Oregon has a weakness, it would be its defense. The Ducks are very good on that side of the ball, but they are not elite. Oregon is ninth in EPA per play allowed, but it ranks 39th in opponent ECKEL rate – a statistic that measures how often a team creates a “quality possession” during a game – and 47th in opponent early downs EPA. In terms of success rate, the Ducks are 60th against the run.

Considering everything that has transpired between the first contest between these two programs in the regular season and now, one might be surprised that the Buckeyes are favored on a neutral field. However, the market has made a significant adjustment here.

Remember, Oregon closed as a 3.5-point underdog at home against Ohio State. If you use just a routine three points for homefield advantage that would give you a 6.5-point spread in favor of the Buckeyes on that day. Today, Ohio State is laying under a field goal.

That adjustment ultimately gets me to the favorite here. Oregon has had a tremendous season, but the number and the clear deficiencies on defense have me on the other side. Ohio State is an extremely sound team that was downgraded due to one bad performance against Michigan.

The truth is that the Buckeyes are arguably the best defense in the CFP right now. They have one of the best offenses in the field, and a quarterback which finished 12th in the country in passing by PFF standards, not too far behind Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel. With this line under a key number, it is worth laying it with Ohio State in the Rose Bowl.

Pick: Ohio State (-2.5)

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