Home College Football Seven Motivational Factors for College Football Bowl Games

Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt, college football — Sep 27, 2025; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores quarterback Diego Pavia (2) awaits the snap against the Utah State Aggies at FirstBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

College Football

Seven Motivational Factors for College Football Bowl Games

Steve Makinen reveals his motivational factor checklist for college football bowl teams.

December 11, 2025

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Seven Motivational Factors for College Football Bowl Games:

If you’ve been with VSiN in any bowl season since our initial Bowl Guide back in 2017, you’re probably well familiar with my annual piece detailing my Motivational Factors Checklist that I incorporate for handicapping each and every bowl game. This checklist is essentially the foundation for my bowl handicapping. I personally believe that you have to have a handle on these variables for each game, or you won’t be successful. Sure, you may win some games by going against the logic, but over the course of the season, it’s unlikely. This past year, it worked fairly well for me on VSiN, as in picking all 44 bowl/playoff game sides and totals, I wound up 46-41-1, following up a solid 47-39 record in 2023-24. These weren’t my best bowl seasons, and in fact, the win percentages were actually down from the 2022-23 season in which I went 58.3%, but remember, all of these records came in games I picked two days after the bowls were announced. I had an even better record on my best bets in all three years. To say the work that I put into this motivational factor checklist is worth it is an understatement.

To me, there is absolutely nothing more important in bowl games nowadays than each team’s motivation for competing, and unfortunately, as we’ve witnessed in recent years, the disparity in the motivation levels of teams in any given game can reach levels not seen before. If you’re on the wrong side of that argument, perhaps by betting too early, or from overlooking a massive factor, your bet can be done by the end of the first quarter. When you’re right, these bowl games can be very fun to sit back and enjoy.

As much as the bowl season has changed over the years, from a betting standpoint, many fundamentals remain the same and will continue to do so as long as there are bowl games. Specifically, bowl games are a reward for a winning season (or .500 in many cases). This year, of course, we have some 5-7 teams, who were given the chance to compete for another game and a few weeks of practice after some better teams elected not to play in postseason games for various reasons. They are a chance for a team to go through a special process and grow together on an extension of their season. Bowl games can also be very defining in terms of which teams prepared best and took the game most seriously, a surefire indicator of program culture and discipline.

Studying bowl games for the last 30 years or so, I have developed a checklist of key things to consider outside the norm of every day, every game football handicapping. I have always believed that the bowl games offer the bettor the best chance at success, since the time to prepare is unmatched on the yearly schedule, especially considering the knowledge you have of the teams after 12 or 13 games. It’s not like the beginning of the season when each team’s prospects are defined by question marks at so many positions. Handicapping the fundamentals at this time of the year is as straightforward as analyzing one team’s stats against another and sprinkling in adjustments for schedule strengths. That part of it is relatively easy. However, oddsmakers have this down as a part of their routine for setting the lines, too. Therefore, to be better than them and to achieve the success level that the professional bettors do, you have to go further. In my opinion, my seven-factor checklist for bowl games does just that.

Keep in mind that, as you see the list of factors, I have found that the numerical order of the factors is unimportant, but each factor is important individually. There will also naturally be conflicts in different points of analysis. In cases like this, I recommend using your own discernment as to what factor you feel is more important. That said, the IMPORTANCE OF COACHING factor is gaining more and more significance each year, and the 2024-25 bowl season saw a banner return for that philosophy.

If you’re wondering why I chose to name this article as I have, not all of these factors would be considered by definition “motivational.” The way I see it, anything that goes into a team’s mindset or physical readiness can affect its motivational level. Over the next few weeks, be sure to stay on top of the news wires for stories that can affect each team. Believe me, there is always unexpected news stories that affect these games.

1) Personnel Disruptions

Before I dive into the actual “personnel disruptions” that are already affecting this year’s bowl games, understand that this section can develop all the way up until game time. I am only going to share some of what we know to this point. Unfortunately, there may be nothing more important for you to recognize before placing any wagers.

Many things can distract a team between the final game of the regular season and the bowl contest. Some of them come out of nowhere and can throw a team for a loop at the most inopportune time. The glaring examples include coaches leaving, players getting into trouble for grades or behavior, and, of course, the ever-growing number of players choosing to transfer or opt out of games to prepare for the NFL draft.

The player news can happen at any time and for any game. I like to point back to one particularly glaring case in recent years, when, in the 2021 Peach Bowl, one of the bowl season’s crown jewels, Pittsburgh’s star quarterback Kenny Pickett chose to opt out of his program’s biggest bowl game in decades, and the Panthers looked nothing like the team that earned that bowl bid.

A year later, one of the biggest stories came in one of the last bowl games of the season, as Purdue was without its head coach, starting quarterback, its top wide receivers, and several other starters as it prepared to take on LSU in the Citrus Bowl. The line moved from -6.5 to -15, and the line wasn’t anywhere near high enough. LSU rolled 63-7.

The 2023 black eye in this regard came in what should have been one of the best games of the year, a battle between undefeated Florida State and 1-loss Georgia in the Orange Bowl. After the Seminoles were left out of the CFP in a rather controversial fashion because of a starting QB injury to star Jordan Travis, several of the other key members of the team also chose to opt out, leaving a shell of what was one of the country’s best teams all season to face the 2-time defending national champs. After the line ballooned from Georgia -13.5 to -21.5, the game wound up even uglier than the 63-3 score indicated.

Last year, the biggest impact came when Marshall decided late in the process to withdraw from its Independence Bowl game against Army due to mass program player defections when it was announced that HC Charles Huff couldn’t come to a contract agreement and left for Southern Miss. Bowl officials were left to scramble for a replacement to no avail. Army ended up playing against Louisiana Tech in a separate game. At the same time, Washington State was in a similar situation to Marshall but elected to play. After a 13.5-point line move left the Cougars as 19-point underdogs, they battled to a 52-35 defeat. The biggest beneficiaries of this were bettors who middled the 13.5-point move.

As usual, there has been a bevy of coaching activity in college football that will affect the bowl games. THERE COULD BE MORE, so it is usually beneficial to be patient before investing too heavily. Here are some of the main changes to watch for.

Head coaching situations

– Starting with the most recent, and perhaps biggest coaching story of them all, Michigan’s Head Coach Sherrone Moore was dismissed four days into the bowl season after it was alleged that he had an inappropriate relationship with a staff member of the program. The fallout from this particular situation could be dramatic, as the Michigan post will be a coveted one. Some of the biggest names in college football are already being thrown around as potential candidates.

– Ohio’s Head Coach Brian Smith was placed on leave for “undisclosed reasons.” Taking over on an interim basis is Defensive Coordinator John Hauser.

– Memphis has named the aforementioned Charles Huff as its new Head Coach, replacing Ryan Silverfield. Defensive Backs Coach Reggie Howard will coach the Tigers on an interim basis in the Gasparilla Bowl versus NC State.

– Neal Brown is taking over the North Texas program in 2026, but for now, Associate Head Coach Drew Svoboda will guide the high-scoring Mean Green in the New Mexico Bowl.

– South Florida’s Alex Golesh was lured away by Auburn after three solid seasons in Tampa. The Bulls turn to Brian Hartline on a permanent basis starting in 2026, but for the upcoming Cure Bowl, Defensive Line Coach Kevin Patrick assumes the top spot.

– Tulane’s Jon Sumrall became a hot commodity after leading the Green Wave to a CFP berth, and will be on his way to Florida. However, with his program achieving the monumental playoff goal, Sumrall has decided to stick around for the run, which starts at Ole Miss.

– Cal fired Justin Wilcox in late November, and taking over for the Hawaii Bowl game against host Hawaii is none other than former Warriors’ and Washington State coach Nick Rolovich.

– Penn State’s interim Head Coach Terry Smith guided the Nittany Lions to what at one time seemed to be an improbable bowl berth after James Franklin was fired. He will be retained on the new staff of recently hired Matt Campbell and has the responsibilities of guiding the team in a high-profile Pinstripe Bowl matchup with Clemson.

– James Madison, facing a brutally tough CFP matchup at Oregon, will be guided by Head Coach Bob Chesney, who has stayed on despite accepting the UCLA gig going forward. The Dukes made a splashy permanent hire by bringing in Billy Napier going forward.

– The UConn staff took a hit for the Fenway Bowl after Head Coach Jim Mora, Jr. left for Colorado State, a move seen as a downgrade if you ask me, considering what the Huskies have accomplished the last two years. Offensive Coordinator Gordon Sammis will coach the bowl game versus Army.

– Co-Offensive Coordinator and Quarterbacks Coach Robert Weiner takes over Toledo on an interim basis for the Boca Raton Bowl, as Jason Candle took over the vacancy at UConn.

– Washington State is going with an interim coach for the second year in a row in its bowl game. This time, it’s Defensive Coordinator Jesse Bobbitt taking over for the departed Jimmy Rogers.

– LSU made the biggest hire of recent weeks, luring in Lane Kiffin from Ole Miss. The interim coach is RB’s Coach Frank Wilson, who has guided the team since Brian Kelly was fired.

– Coastal Carolina’s interim Head Coach for their upcoming Independence Bowl game is Jeremiah Johnson, the team’s Defensive Coordinator, following the firing of former Head Coach Tim Beck in late November 2025.

– Southern Miss’s interim bowl coach is OC Blake Anderson, who replaces former Head Coach Charles Huff, who used the USM post as a quick stepping stone for the job at Memphis. Anderson coached both Arkansas State and Utah State in prior bowl games and will lead the Golden Eagles in the New Orleans bowl versus Western Kentucky

Distractions don’t always turn out negatively for a team, however, so be careful not to assume that as you assess the specific situations. Some teams may take a coaching change, key injury(s), backups’ chance to step in for opt-outs, or a key player choosing to, in fact, play, and use it as a motivational source.

Without getting too deep into specific opt-outs for each game, there are several quarterback availability scenarios that will play out in the days leading up to each game. Everyone reading this knows how much value I place on that key position in college football. Here they are broken up into various categories. If you need more on these or on other key players at other positions, please Google “bowl game opt-outs” and you’ll get plenty of sources to choose from for news.

Injuries to starting quarterbacks?

– Penn State’s Drew Allar suffered a season-ending ankle injury in October and won’t be ready for the Pinstripe Bowl game versus Clemson. Backup Ethan Grunkemeyer, who served as the team’s starter in his place, will have the QB duties.

– Miami Ohio’s Dequan Finn opted out of the season’s final few games to get ready for the NFL draft. Backups Henry Hesson and Thomas Gotkowski had almost identical reps in relief duty. It’s unclear which of the two will get the call for the Arizona Bowl matchup versus Fresno State or if they will split the assignment.

– LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier has already been declared out of the Houston Bowl. Replacement Michael Van Buren Jr. has already served in his absence for multiple starts.

– Louisiana Tech’s Blake Baker suffered a season-ending torn ACL, so he won’t play in the Independence Bowl against Coastal Carolina; However, backup QBs Evan Bullock and Trey Kukuk have taken over in his absence.

– Arizona State’s Sam Leavitt and Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola are in similar situations, expected to miss their respective bowl games with injuries while also weighing jaunts into the transfer portal.

Quarterbacks opting out potentially

– Old Dominion’s QB Colton Joseph, who had a huge season throwing for 2,624 yards and rushing for 1,007, has entered the transfer portal and won’t play in the Cure Bowl versus South Florida.

– Appalachian State half-time starting QB AJ Swann has entered the transfer portal and won’t play in the Birmingham Bowl.

– There were some other names garnering attention as potential opt-outs for this year’s bowl games or headed to the transfer portal. Guys to watch include Byrum Brown (South Florida), CJ Bailey (NC State), Drew Mestemaker (North Texas), Brendan Sorsby (Cincinnati)

The players opting out/transferring situation is one we will have to continue to watch all the way up until kickoff. Thankfully, unlike the 2020 and 2021 seasons, we won’t have entire teams opt out even after committing weeks earlier. Of course, this bowl season presented an even crazier situation when programs like Kansas State, Iowa State, and Notre Dame elected to decline bowl bids right out of the gate. The Irish situation was particularly concerning and drew the ire of most college football talking heads.

Nothing else considered, bettors have to realize how big of a deal this opting-out situation can be. In last year’s games alone, there were five games that saw their opening lines move 7 points or more due to these situations. Of course, the Washington State-Syracuse lien moved the most when it was determined that the Cougars would essentially be fielding a backup team for the Holiday Bowl. In the end, against all odds, WaSu delivered for the few remaining believers, losing 52-35 in a game that saw them move from +6 to +19.5 over the course of the 3-week leadup to the contest.

Brutally, this trend is has gained more steam, not less, in recent years. That said, the news wires over the first few days of post-bowl game matchup announcements were quieter than usual. We can only hope that it stays that way and we’re able to enjoy watching famailiar players over the next few weeks.

2) Big Line/Total Movements

I am convinced that players and coaches know the point spreads in their bowl games. I am not convinced however that they follow line moves like actual bettors do. As they say, things like this are best left for the pros. I also inferred earlier that it is impossible to quantify the distractions a team faces in its bowl preparations. Perhaps line movements are the best and only way to even think about doing it. Using only the 2021-2024 bowl seasons as evidence, odds makers essentially paved the road for bettors, as those that followed the action in the 77 games that saw 3-point or bigger line moves went 43-34 ATS (55.8%).

While I wouldn’t actually consider a line moving a lot in a bowl game a motivating factor for a team, the move itself should stand as a red flag for you when wondering if some unusual situation might be “distracting” a team. In general, oddsmakers are sharp enough at this point in the season to set lines that stay steady over the month-long period of bowl games. In fact, only 79 of 1037 bowl games over the last 33 years have seen line moves of 4.5-points or more from their opening number, and that includes an uptick lately in games where major player injury, opt out, or suspension announcements were made after opening. It happened 11 times in 2021, six times in 2022, 11 again in 2023, and went up to 13 last year. In fact, only 39 total games in that four-year span saw line moves of 1/2 -point or less, and 11 of those were in the playoff games where there is little or no personnel issues to deal with.

Recreational bettors should consider themselves “lucky” because the experts are basically paving the road to bowl winnings by telling you which team to bet on. As I just mentioned, 79 games over the last 33 bowl seasons have seen line movements of 4.5 or more points. Here is the trend:

In bowl games between 1992-2025 that had closing lines more than four points off of their opening line, the team that the line moved towards is 45-33-1 ATS (57.7%). However, these games were only 5-8 ATS last year.

Again, in most cases, line moves this big are typically caused by a distracting factor, such as a coaching change, QB or mass opt-out, suspension, or injury, and rarely by a “miss” by the oddsmakers. In short, with a 57.7% ATS success rate, let the experts interpret the impact that the distraction will have for you. Recognize, though, that you can only take advantage of these findings by waiting until as close to kickoff as possible.

For this season, of course, we will have some qualifying games, assuming there is no contraction back to the original line. As of Wednesday, 12/9, only two have moved a lot to one team. That team is in UPPER CASE:

MISSOURI STATE (+2.5 to -1.5) vs. Arkansas State
NAVY (+1.5 to -3) vs. Cincinnati

Though no other games officially qualified as of press time, I can assure you there will be more by the time the games start.

Regarding totals, there are always many more games that move 4.5 points or more off their opening number by game time, but this can often be due to game-day weather, in addition to all the other circumstances previously discussed. Regardless of the reason, here is the system for totals:

Bettors have been right at an 85-69-1 (55.2%) rate on totals moving 4.5 points or more since I first started studying bowl games in ‘92.

Again, keep an eye on the numbers as you approach game time, but as of this writing, no games currently show total moves meeting the criteria.

3) Excitement level for the game

It’s natural for athletes at different levels to gear up more for some games or opponents than others. This point is exacerbated in bowl games, as, quite frankly, some teams are happy to be there, and others are disappointed. Teams playing in a bowl game for the first time ever, or the first time in many years, are naturally going to be more excited than those who perhaps underperformed this season or are going to a bowl game locale that falls below their usual standards. While it is impossible to quantify this excitement level, let me assure you that if you don’t consider this factor, all the stats in the world are no good to you.

Over the last seven years, I have listed games in this exact location where I thought there was a clear difference in excitement level. I was 35-33 ATS in these, including 5-7 ATS last year. This is not overwhelming success by any means, but better than losing. Remember, this is just MY opinion; it is not the gospel, and it’s quite possible you see things differently from me. Here is a list of potential games that could be defined by one team’s mindset, as I analyze the games from the outside. Again, whether a team really “shows up” to play is usually the difference between winning and covering.

By the way, I typically never include any playoff-level games or the much higher-profile bowl games, as unless there is a glaring situation like Florida State last year for the Orange Bowl, it is assumed that the teams playing are excited about the opportunity they’ve been given.

For this season, for this particular factor, I am going to give myself more time to get a feel for this, rather than the couple of days I have been pushing it out over the last few years. With that in mind, be sure to stay tuned to my College Football Best Bet writeups over the next few weeks to get a feel for which teams I think are more excited about their bowl chance. I think this will help me get the record of this factor back up. For now, I will recite some of the reasons I have used recently for determining the teams I put in:

– Teams that play in Group of 5 conferences typically relish the chance to take on Power 4 teams, especially in bowl games when there are more eyes on them.

– Teams that haven’t won a bowl game in many years tend to cherish the opportunity more.

– Teams to the FBS level getting to bowl games early for their programs are usually very excited for the stage.

– Teams that beat their preseason expectations by a significant margin tend to be more galvanized than teams that perhaps underachieved.

– Playing in consecutive bowl games in the same locale or the same region can often be a disappointment for teams.

– I look for bowl situations in which it seems like one of the teams is trying hard to establish a new culture, and has the talent to do so.

– Do players on teams that are transitioning to new coaches and are interested in staying with the program produce extra effort in what amounts to an early tryout-like situation?

– I believe there are certain “ultimate bowl destinations” for teams from Power 4 conferences, such as Florida, Pasadena, Texas, and the like. Cold-weather destinations or cities not known for their nightlife or social settings are not often preferred.

– When star players elect to play in a bowl game unexpectedly, this can also have a motivating effect on the rest of the program. And of course, vice versa.

– Teams getting back to former elite standards after long droughts are usually motivated to finish the job in bowl games as opposed to packing it in.

– Superior teams being threatened by rising underdogs in their own state or region usually play well when taking the threat seriously. Sometimes these games wind up being the biggest blowouts.

I’m sure you can come up with some other examples of reasons to question a team’s motivation, but these are some of the ones I have used in recent bowl seasons.

4) Motivation of the Point Spread

They may say otherwise, but don’t let the coaches and players fool you. They know the point spreads of these bowl games they are playing in, especially in this day of expanded sports betting regulation across the country. That said, athletes take a lot out of the respect they are getting heading into a bowl game. Nowhere is this respect level more clearly illustrated than in the point spread. Teams that feel slighted by this number tend to work harder to prepare and “prove everyone wrong” than those on the opposite side of the line. Those teams may perhaps take it easier in their preparation, or even worse, discount their opponent altogether. Be careful, it’s not always the motivation of being an underdog that drives a team. Sometimes, favorites feel they aren’t getting enough respect. That can be just as powerful. Looking back at the last three bowl seasons, here are some examples of some of the logic I have put into building this factor.

Unlike factor #3 above, I feel like I can get a good feel for the motivation of point spreads right out of the gate. In fact, any shortened time window for me has not really affected my performance in factor #4 recently. The recent history tells the tale.

In 2020, I was 3-1 in this factor #4, with one of my five calls getting canceled. The highlight game was Ohio State, who seemed to be fueled by the disrespect it was receiving from oddsmakers as it got ready for its playoff semifinal matchup vs. Clemson.

In 2021, I picked a record high 11 games in this section and went 7-4 ATS. Perhaps the showcase game is the Peach Bowl matchup between Michigan State and Pitt. Both teams earned New Year’s Six bowl bids, but apparently only the Spartans valued the spot, with some of Pitt’s best players opting out. Even still, oddsmakers made Sparty only a 1.5-point favorite at the time of picking. MSU played the disrespected role well and eventually won 31-21 as a 3.5-point closing line favorite.

In 2022, I picked 10 games in this spot, and those teams went 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS, highlighted by big upset wins from teams like Tennessee and Middle Tennessee State, teams I figured should have been favored.

The 2023 bowl season was my worst I’ve had in several years with factor #4, going 4-6 SU and ATS, missing horribly on teams like Tulane, Oklahoma, and Florida State. That said, on the FSU nightmare, which I changed dramatically as the bowl season played out, by the time the Orange Bowl actually came around, I had a Best Bet on Georgia versus the Seminoles.

In last year’s five writeups for factor #4, I was 3-2 SU and ATS, winning with teams like Army, Louisville, and Ole Miss, and losing on bowl host Coastal Carolina and NC State.

Thus, for the last five seasons, I now own a record of 25-15 ATS (60%) for Motivational Factor #4.

With that in mind, here are some pointspread scenarios that catch my eye for 2025-26. It’s a bit shorter list than the last couple of years, as I think oddsmakers have finally made the proper pre-release adjustments to account for the transfers & opt-outs:

– TULANE was a far lesser team when it met up with a Lane Kiffin-led Ole Miss team back in September. Even though they had already recorded Power 4 wins over Duke and Northwestern at that point, they were still working in late transfer addition QB Jake Retzlaff. Now, with Kiffin off to LSU, and the teams set for a rematch in a first-round CFP game, the Green Wave are 5-point bigger underdogs than they were in the earlier meeting. This is a playoff game, and I have to believe Tulane believes it is much better than it was then. I can’t say the same for the Rebels. Tulane also has a rich history of being a gritty underdog to big conference teams.

– Is the right team favored in the WASHINGTON STATE-Utah StatePotato Bowl matchup? Both teams are 6-6, and while the Cougars have another interim coach stepping in, last year, they played better than expected in that scenario. They owned outright wins over a pair of bowl teams, almost beat ACC runner-up Virginia, and were very competitive against CFP teams James Madison and Ole Miss. The Aggies only win over a bowl team came against Fresno State, and they were beaten by 20 at Vanderbilt versus the only true power team they faced. Why is USU a 3.5-point favorite?

– UNLV’s reward for what has been significant back-to-back seasons is a Frisco Bowl matchup with a team out of the MAC that wasn’t even in its league title game. Oh, and by the way, Ohio is also dealing with a head coach being put on leave situation. Meanwhile, Head Coach Dan Mullen didn’t come to Las Vegas to mess around at the $2 tables. He is a former high-roller in from the SEC looking to get the Runnin’ Rebels on the big stage. You have to think he, along with his highly rated incoming class this year, has to be taken aback by being just a 4.5-point favorite in this matchup.

– HAWAII is making obvious strides as a program and is one of the best home underdog pointspread covering teams in the country. The Warriors have the better record, the better offense, and the motivation of continuing to rebuild their brand under Head Coach Timmy Chang. Cal may have a pretty good freshman quarterback making his return to his homeland for this game, but they also have an interim coach and little to play for other than the chance to spend a Christmas Eve in Hawaii.

– Don’t confuse this year’s Army team with last year’s. That team was transcendent; this team is closer to what we had become accustomed to from the Knights in the prior half-decade. I must ask then, how are they favored over a UCONN team that won nine games for a second straight season? Yes, I know the Huskies are turning to a new coach here, but the interim is the OC, so they shouldn’t really miss a beat. My Power Ratings say the Huskies are 3 points better, the odds say the exact opposite.

– Part of its success this season was VIRGINIA’s ability to thrive in the underdog role. In their 10-3 season, the Cavaliers went 3-1 SU and ATS when getting points. For their bowl game, they find themselves as +7-point dogs to a Missouri team that underachieved this season, going just 3-5-1 ATS in the last nine games. This line feels like it is just a standard SEC is the better league versus the ACC. The thing is, the latter is usually motivated in the dog role in the matchup, and Virginia comes off a pretty special season.

– VANDERBILT’s program has grown by leaps and bounds over the last two seasons, and so much of it has been due to the addition of QB Diego Pavia prior to the 2024 season. This year, the Commodores were in the playoff discussion after going 10-2, losing to just Texas & Alabama. Now they find themselves as just 4-point favorites against an Iowa team that was its usual self in 2025, 8-4 and nothing special. Head Coach Clark Lea of Vandy offered no excuses or anger for missing out on the playoffs, only acknowledging that they could have done more. I think they WILL do much more as an underpriced favorite in the ReliaQuest Bowl.

– Some teams would probably fret about covering a massive 14.5-point line in a bowl game. I don’t think UTAH is one of those, as the Utes have historically been a solid bowl team under Head Coach Kyle Whittingham and take all comers. This year’s matchup has to be a disappointment as they face an injury-riddled, late stumbling Nebraska team that lost four of its final six games and was just 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine. The only satisfaction for Utah here will probably come in pummeling a team that is truly much better than.

– At the outset of the season, I had Mississippi State on my list of potential surprise teams for 2025, and while I won a season win total Over wager with the Bulldogs, to me, they were still a disappointment. After a 4-0 start, they went just 1-7 in the rest and weren’t even competitive in the last three. In the Duke’s Mayo Bowl, they face an 8-4 WAKE FOREST team that had a quick revival this season under Head Coach Jake Dickert and should be thrilled to be back in a bowl game after consecutive 4-8 seasons. What’s more, the Demon Deacons are playing in their home state and are an underdog to a 5-7 team that is only getting line respect because of the league it comes from.

5) Head coach experience is of utmost importance

It’s not hard to understand: some coaches just fare better than others in using the extra preparation time in bowl games to cement their game plans and get their teams physically and mentally ready to play. After all, these are the key ingredients to being a successful coach, almost as important as navigating the transfer portal nowadays, unfortunately. With all of the extras involved with bowl games, the importance of coaching is magnified. In preparation for the 2022-23 bowl season, I dedicated myself to examining the coaching situations in bowl games. I was ecstatic to uncover some truly golden betting nuggets about first-time bowl coaches and differences in bowl-game experience among coaches. I continued relying on it over the last two seasons. Regarding the latter:

Since 2015, or the last 10 bowl seasons, head coaches with an experience advantage in terms of number of bowl games coached over the opponent have gone 203-156 SU and 201-155-4 ATS (56.5%)! These coaches were 27-16 SU and 28-14-1 ATS last season, including the CFP Quarterfinal, Semifinal, and Championship games, which were not predetermined when I released this piece at this time last year.

These are the bowl games for 2025-26 in which there are edges, and the number of bowl games experience for each coach. They are listed in order of experience disparity. There are 36 games so far in which there is a bowl game coaching experience difference. There will be seven more games based on the playoff results. If the game IS NOT listed, the bowl game coaching experience is EVEN.

BOISE STATE – SPENCER DANIELSON (1) vs. WASHINGTON – JEDD FISCH (2), Edge WASHINGTON by 1

OLD DOMINION – RICKY RAHNE (2) vs. SOUTH FLORIDA – KEVIN PATRICK (0), Edge OLD DOMINION by 2

LA LAFAYETTE – MICHAEL DESORMEAUX (3) vs. DELAWARE – RYAN CARTY (0), Edge LA LAFAYETTE by 3

MISSOURI STATE – RYAN BEARD (0) vs. ARKANSAS STATE – BUTCH JONES (8), Edge ARKANSAS STATE by 8

KENNESAW STATE – JERRY MACK (0) vs. W MICHIGAN – LANCE TAYLOR (1), Edge W MICHIGAN by 1

MEMPHIS – REGGIE HOWARD (0) vs. NC STATE – DAVE DOEREN (9), Edge NC STATE by 9

JAMES MADISON – BOB CHESNEY (1) vs. OREGON – DAN LANNING (3), Edge JAMES MADISON by 2

TULANE -JON SUMRALL (2) vs. OLE MISS – PETE GOLDING (0), Edge TULANE by 2

ALABAMA – KALEN DEBOER (4) vs. OKLAHOMA – BRENT VENABLES (3), Edge ALABAMA by 1

MIAMI (FL) – MARIO CRISTOBAL (8) vs. TEXAS A&M – MIKE ELKO (2), Edge MIAMI (FL) by 6

WASHINGTON STATE – JESSE BOBBITT (0) vs. UTAH STATE – BRONCO MENDENHALL (14), Edge UTAH STATE by 14

TOLEDO – ROBERT WEINER (0) vs. LOUISVILLE – JEFF BROHM (8), Edge LOUISVILLE by 8

W KENTUCKY – TYSON HELTON (6) vs. SOUTHERN MISS – BLAKE ANDERSON (9), Edge SOUTHERN MISS by 3

UNLV – DAN MULLEN (11) vs. OHIO U – JOHN HAUSER (0), Edge UNLV by 11

CALIFORNIA – NICK ROLOVICH (3) vs. HAWAII – TIMMY CHANG (0), Edge CALIFORNIA by 3

C MICHIGAN – MATT DRINKALL (0) vs. NORTHWESTERN – DAVID BRAUN (1), Edge NORTHWESTERN by 1

NEW MEXICO – JASON ECK (0) vs. MINNESOTA – PJ FLECK (9), Edge MINNESOTA by 9

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL – WILLIE SIMMONS (0) vs. TX-SAN ANTONIO – JEFF TRAYLOR (5), Edge TX-SAN ANTONIO by 5

PITTSBURGH – PAT NARDUZZI (7) vs. EAST CAROLINA – BLAKE HARRELL (1), Edge PITTSBURGH by 6

PENN STATE – TERRY SMITH (0) vs. CLEMSON – DABO SWINNEY (20), Edge CLEMSON by 20

CONNECTICUT – GORDON SAMMIS (0) vs. ARMY – JEFF MONKEN (6), Edge ARMY by 6

GEORGIA TECH – BRENT KEY (2) vs. BYU – KALANI SITAKE (7), Edge BYU by 5

MIAMI (OH) – CHUCK MARTIN (6) vs. FRESNO STATE – MATT ENTZ (0), Edge MIAMI (OH) by 6

NORTH TEXAS – DREW SVOBODA (0) vs. SAN DIEGO STATE – SEAN LEWIS (2), Edge SAN DIEGO STATE by 2

VIRGINIA – TONY ELLIOTT (0) vs. MISSOURI – ELIAH DRINKWITZ (4), Edge MISSOURI by 4

LSU – FRANK WILSON (1) vs. HOUSTON – WILLIE FRITZ (5), Edge HOUSTON by 4

GA SOUTHERN – CLAY HELTON (8) vs. APPALACHIAN STATE – DOWELL LOGGAINS (0), Edge GA SOUTHERN by 8

COASTAL CAROLINA – JEREMIAH JOHNSON (0) vs. LOUISIANA TECH – SONNY CUMBIE (2), Edge LOUISIANA TECH by 2

TENNESSEE – JOSH HEUPEL (7) vs. ILLINOIS – BRET BIELEMA (11), Edge ILLINOIS by 4

USC – LINCOLN RILEY (7) vs. TCU – SONNY DYKES (6), Edge USC by 1

IOWA – KIRK FERENTZ (21) vs. VANDERBILT – CLARK LEA (1), Edge IOWA by 20

ARIZONA STATE – KENNY DILLINGHAM (1) vs. DUKE – MANNY DIAZ (3), Edge DUKE by 2

MICHIGAN – BIFF POGGI (0) vs. TEXAS – STEVE SARKISIAN (9), Edge TEXAS by 9

NEBRASKA – MATT RHULE (5) vs. UTAH – KYLE WHITTINGHAM (16), Edge UTAH by 11

RICE – SCOTT ABELL (0) vs. TEXAS STATE – GJ KINNE (2), Edge TEXAS STATE by 2

NAVY – BRIAN NEWBERRY (1) vs. CINCINNATI – SCOTT SATTERFIELD (5), Edge CINCINNATI by 4

WAKE FOREST – JAKE DICKERT (3) vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE – JEFF LEBBY (0), Edge WAKE FOREST by 3

Digging further on the general experience difference, in bowl games since 2016 that have a difference of at least 10 bowl games coached between the opposing head coaches, the more experienced one is 44-27 SU & 45-25-1 ATS (64.3%). This angle produced a 3-3 SU AND 4-2 ATS record last season. Looking at this year’s lineup, here are the five games that qualify so far, with only a potential Georgia edge in later playoff games:

WASHINGTON STATE – JESSE BOBBITT (0) vs. UTAH STATE – BRONCO MENDENHALL (14), Edge UTAH ST by 14