This checklist is essentially the foundation for my bowl handicapping. I personally believe that you have to have a handle on these variables for each game or you won’t be successful. This past year it worked very well for me in the Guide, as in picking all 42 bowl game sides and totals, I wound up 49-35, a solid 58.3% result. It wasn’t my best bowl season, but I will take 58.3% anytime, especially with the increasing volatility of the lines in these games each year.
There is absolutely nothing more important in bowl games nowadays than each team’s motivation for competing, and unfortunately, as we’ve witnessed in recent years, the disparity in the motivation levels of teams in any given game can reach levels not seen before. If you’re on the wrong side of that argument, perhaps by betting too early or by overlooking a massive factor, your bet can be done by the end of the first quarter. When you’re right, though, these bowl games can be very fun to sit back and enjoy.
Keep in mind that as you see the list of factors, I have found that the numerical order of them is unimportant, but all of them individually are important. There will also naturally be conflicts in different points of analysis. In cases like this, I recommend using your own discernment as to what factor you feel is more important.
If you’re wondering why I chose to name this article as I have, as not all of these factors would be considered by definition “motivational.” The way I see it, anything that goes into a team’s mindset or physical readiness can affect its motivational level. Over the next few weeks, be sure to stay on top of the news wires for stories that can affect each team. There is always unexpected news stories that affect these games. You’ll be thrilled to know that VSiN has come up with its own page for tracking key bowl news this season, and it is manned by our own Adam Burke. You can find it here in the opt-out tracker.
Here are the seven motivational factors:
1) Personnel Disruptions
Many things can cause distractions for a team between the final game of the regular season and the bowl contest. The glaring examples include coaches leaving, players getting into trouble for grades or behavior, and of course, the ever-growing number of players choosing to transfer or opt-out of games to prepare for the NFL draft.
The player news can happen at any time and for any game. Case in point, in the 2021 Peach Bowl, a New Year’s 6-level game, Pittsburgh’s star quarterback Kenny Pickett chose to opt out of his program’s biggest bowl game in decades and the Panthers looked nothing like the team that earned that bowl bid.
A couple of days later, two of Ohio State’s top wide receivers watched the Rose Bowl from home as they prepped for the NFL draft, only to see teammate Jaxon Smith-Njigba put up a record performance in their absence. One of the biggest stories a year ago came in one of the last bowl games of the season, as Purdue was without its head coach, starting quarterback, top wide receivers, and several other starters as it prepared to take on LSU in the Citrus Bowl. The line moved from -6.5 to -15, and the line wasn’t anywhere near high enough. LSU rolled 63-7.
As usual, there has been a bevy of coaching activity in college football that will be affecting the bowl games. Here are the main changes to watch for.