South Alabama Jaguars:

I’ve been wrong before and I’ll be wrong again, but South Alabama has gone from Kane Wommack to Major Applewhite and that feels like a huge step down. Wommack joined Kalen DeBoer on Alabama’s staff as the defensive coordinator and Applewhite was promoted from OC to HC. DC Corey Batoon also hopped to the SEC, leaving South Alabama with a big brain drain on the sidelines.

This is Applewhite’s second kick at the coaching can, as he was the head man at Houston in 2017-18 and, honestly, maybe he’s grown a bit, as he’s now a 45-year-old head coach instead of a guy rushed into the role when the Tom Herman hire failed miserably. In a conference where  few teams play defense, the Jaguars had one of the best. I’m not sure that’ll be the case now.

 

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Offense

Applewhite has spent time as the OC at both Alabama and Texas, so he’s a guy that should be able to keep up the standards of this offense. He’ll have to do it with a lot of new personnel, though, as star RB La’Damian Webb and future NFL standout Caullin Lacy both transferred out, taking over 2,300 yards worth of production with them. QBs Carter Bradley and Desmond Trotter are also gone.

That leaves undersized lefty Gio Lopez in charge of the offense. The 5-foot-11 and change QB was a three-star recruit that was pursued by Rob Ezell, who is now the OC. Lopez was 14-of-19 for 192 yards and three touchdowns in the 68 Ventures Bowl. The Jags do get back 2022 leading receiver Devin Voisin and 2023 runner-up Jamaal Pritchett is back after having 15.5 yards per catch and a team-high eight touchdown snags. Like I said, I’m not terribly worried about the offense.

Defense

The departures on defense are enormous. South Alabama finished 22nd in yards per play and 27th in scoring defense. This group was strong against both the pass and the run and gave up just a hair over five yards per play. The cupboard isn’t totally bare, with leaders Ricky Fletcher and Jaden Voisin back in the secondary after combining for 17 pass breakups.

However, a lot of sacks and tackles for loss are gone. This wasn’t a sack-happy defense with 27, but South Alabama was tied for 28th in tackles for loss. We’ll see how much linebackers coach Will Windham took from Wommack, a brilliant defensive mind in his own right, and Batoon, as he was elevated to DC.

Outlook

It is entirely possible that I am too low on Applewhite, whose work history is thoroughly impressive, and the coordinators were both in-house promotions, so the Jaguars may not drop off at all. I am concerned about the loss of impact talent on both sides of the ball, though. My projections put the Jaguars at 5.97 wins and the plus-money price on Under 6.5 is very attractive.

Pick: Under 6.5 Wins

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