South Carolina vs. Illinois:

This season has been one of the most compelling in a long time for the South Carolina Gamecocks. They probably should have beaten Alabama in Tuscaloosa, absolutely should have beaten LSU in Columbia, and scored a late touchdown to upset Clemson in the Palmetto Bowl and seemingly keep their hated rivals out of the College Football Playoff.

Then Miami lost to Syracuse, Clemson beat SMU, and the Gamecocks, who had a head-to-head win and a better resume, accepted a bid to the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl while the rival that they beat got to go to the CFP by virtue of being in the ACC. Fortunately, head coach Shane Beamer seems like a guy who can get his team fired up to play the Illinois Fighting Illini.

 

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Meanwhile, Illinois hasn’t won a bowl game since 2011 (0-3) and hasn’t been to one frequently. That’s a motivating factor and so is the chance to knock off a CFP Top 15 team. Both teams should be plenty engaged in this one.

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Citrus Bowl: South Carolina Gamecocks (-9.5, 48) vs. Illinois Fighting Illini

How To Watch The Citrus Bowl

When: Tuesday December 31, 3 p.m. ET

How: ABC

Where: Camping World Stadium in Orlando, FL

The Gamecocks will be missing their best defensive player, as potential top-10 draft pick Kyle Kennard will sit this one out. That is a big blow for a South Carolina team whose strength all season long was the defensive line. Fortunately, interior linemen Tonka Hemingway and T.J. Sanders will be out there and that should help the Gamecocks stuff the run like they have all season long.

This was a borderline top-10 unit in yards per play allowed. Given that South Carolina played a top-20 schedule per Jeff Sagarin, that is one heck of an accomplishment. They draw an Illinois team that was a little bit better than the national average in offensive yards per play and did pretty well against Big Ten foes with 5.8 YPP, but the Illini did not show well against Penn State and Oregon. They avoided both Ohio State and Indiana.

Luke Altmyer took excellent care of the football with a 21/5 TD/INT ratio and a 61% completion rate, though he did take 31 sacks. That will be the matchup to follow in this game. How will the Illinois offensive line hold up against the South Carolina front? Kennard is a loss, but the Gamecocks came up with some big NIL money to keep Dylan Stewart and this is a game for the defensive end to take the mantle as the team’s leader on that side of the ball. He had 6.5 sacks and forced three fumbles.

Illinois had a running back-by-committee approach, as Aidan Laughery had 6.4 yards per carry to lead the way with 522 yards. Josh McCray and Kaden Feagin were the others with 4.8 and 4.6 yards per carry, respectively. Overall, the Illini rushed for 4.4 yards per carry. They may have to rely more on the running game than they would like because top WR Pat Bryant has opted out.

On the South Carolina side, OC and QB Coach Dowell Loggains is gone, having taken the head coaching gig at Appalachian State. The SC offense has basically just been LaNorris Sellers and Raheim Sanders running wild. Sellers had 155 carries for 655 yards, including a monster effort with 16 carries for 166 yards in the upset win over Clemson. He’s a massive human at 6-foot-3 and 242 pounds, so he’s tough to bring down.

So is Sanders, who had 4.8 yards per pop on 183 attempts. The leading pass catcher for South Carolina was tight end Joshua Simon with 34 catches for 450 yards, so this is not really a big offense in terms of the pass. Sanders was actually the third-leading receiver with 27 catches for 316 yards.

This line has dropped below 10, presumably with the expectation of a low-scoring game and the fact that SC doesn’t have many big passing plays in the arsenal. Beamer’s Gamecocks are almost always excellent on special teams, though, so that could swing this game in a big way. I lean laying the points with South Carolina, as the program is building up a lot of momentum. But, I can’t help but look at the Under here, even with some special teams shenanigans as a possibility.

Pick: Under 48

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