South Florida Bulls:
This is the most interesting team in the AAC for the 2024 season in my humble opinion. First-year head coach Alex Golesh took the Bulls to a bowl game, where they throttled a shorthanded Syracuse squad in Boca Raton. There is no telling how much it cost USF to keep Byrum Brown from transferring to a Power Four program, but the dual-threat signal caller is back and it seems likely that veteran DC Todd Orlando will shore up the defense.
Non-conference clashes with Alabama and Miami will be tough, but the conference schedule is very manageable and this is a dangerous team.
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Offense
I was absolutely shocked to read that Brown had USF’s first-ever 3,000-yard passing season. With predecessors like Matt Grothe, B.J. Daniels, and Quinton Flowers, some good QBs have come through Tampa, yet Brown did something that none of them were able to accomplish. For good measure, he ran for 809 yards and 11 touchdowns. He comes into this season with the best completion rate (min. 25 pass attempts) in program history.
He’s a special player and may go down as the best QB in school history if he performs to a similar level this season and stays for next season. And his supporting cast is mostly back. USF lost a lineman to the NFL, but leading (non-Brown) rusher Nay’Quan Wright is back and so is 1,000-yard receiver Sean Atkins. The Golesh/Joel Gordon offense is creative, up-tempo, and balanced, and nearly all hands are back on deck.
Defense
This is the area that has to improve. USF was 112th in scoring defense (32.2 PPG) and allowed over six yards per play. USF’s offense led the nation in offensive plays with 1,028, but ranked 105th in average time of possession, so the defense did get gassed at times. However, this was a top-25 unit in third-down defense, so early downs crushed them.
USF was tied for 13th with 24 takeaways, but only five teams allowed more passing touchdowns. It was a truly weird season on defense, but a lot of starters are back and Orlando is a well-respected DC, so there’s hope for improvement.
Outlook
This offense should only get better in Golesh’s second season, so any shred of improvement from the defense elevates the profile of this team. I’m high on USF, as I have them a double-digit favorite in five AAC games and road chalk at Rice. Alabama, Miami, Tulane, and Memphis are all tough games, but I can’t see them only winning six. That feels like a major failure. My numbers say 7.57 and I think 7-5 is the worst-case scenario.
Pick: Over 7 Wins
