South Florida vs. Miami Odds and Picks
The South Florida Bulls have been the story of the 2025 college football season, and they’ll look to keep things rolling when they take on the Miami Hurricanes at Hard Rock Stadium on Saturday, September 13th. All year, we’re going to be diving into some of the biggest college football games of the season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds and picks for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 3 College Football Betting Hub for a look at all of our college football betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How to Watch South Florida vs. Miami
Where: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida
When: Saturday, September 13th at 4:30 pm ET
Channel: The CW Network
South Florida vs. Miami Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Wednesday, September 10th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Miami -750, South Florida +525
Spread: Miami -17.5 (-105), South Florida +17.5 (-115)
Total: Over 57.5 (-108), Under 57.5 (-112)
South Florida vs. Miami Analysis
Nobody in the country has been more impressive than the Bulls to start the season. In Week 1, South Florida was a 5.5-point home underdog against Boise State, one of the favorites to represent the Group of Five in this year’s College Football Playoff, but the Bulls ended up pounding the Broncos in a 34-7 victory. Then, South Florida was an 18-point road underdog against Florida in Week 2. And despite nobody in the media giving the Bulls a chance in that one, Alex Golesh’s team walked out of Gainesville with an 18-16 win.
South Florida now heads into Week 3 with the 13th-best adjusted EPA per play (0.17) in the country, according to Game On Paper. What’s really interesting is that the Bulls have held up defensively. South Florida gave up 29.8 points per game in 2024. And while the team does have eight players with starting experience back, there really wasn’t much of a reason to believe the Bulls would be able to keep two very good offenses down. The question now is, can the South Florida defense keep it up?
If the Bulls are legit defensively, there’s a real chance they end up finishing the year as the top Group of Five team. And that’s really because the South Florida offense has the potential to be very explosive. Byrum Brown is one of the most dangerous dual-threat quarterbacks in football, plus he’s working behind a big, talented offensive line. Golesh also did a good job of bringing in weapons in the transfer portal.
However, while there are a lot of positives with this Bulls team, this is a brutal spot. Having to quickly move on from that Florida win to face another CFP-caliber program is rough. And Miami looks like a freaking force early on. Miami beat Notre Dame 27-24 in a high-profile Week 1 matchup, and that game probably should have been more lopsided. The Hurricanes, led by Georgia transfer Carson Beck, were moving the ball at will against a good Fighting Irish defense, but they took their foot off the gas and got conservative once they took a 21-7 lead. And the defense, with former Minnesota defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman running the show, looked great for most of that game. So, while Miami narrowly escaped with that win, I came away from that game viewing the Hurricanes as a legitimate title contender.
Looking at the big 17.5-point spread in this game, it feels like the oddsmakers want people to jump on the trendy underdog. But I do think there’s a chance Miami busts this one open. While South Florida has allowed only 23 points so far, the team is outside the Top 50 in yards per play allowed (4.8). Opponents have been able to do some things against them, but they haven’t been finishing drives and putting points on the board. Miami, with one of the best play-callers in the nation in Shannon Dawson, an experienced quarterback in Beck and all kinds of talent at the skill positions, shouldn’t suffer that same fate. The Hurricanes should be able to run against this defensive line, and that should open up some big plays over the top in the passing game. Beck has already made some big-time throws this year.
Defensively, Miami has the pass-rushers — and overall speed — required to make Brown uncomfortable, and the defensive backs are good enough to cover the South Florida wideouts. Last year, the Hurricanes secondary got burned by downfield passes far too often. But that shouldn’t be as big of a problem with Hetherman calling plays. And honestly, outside of a very brief mental letdown against Notre Dame, Miami has looked very disciplined in the new season.
It’s also hard not to note that Miami beat South Florida by 35 on the road last year. We have seen a Mario Cristobal-led team beat up on a Golesh-led team. And while I do have plenty of concerns with Cristobal, the Hurricanes are 2-0 both straight-up and against the spread versus AAC opponents under him. Also, what we saw from South Florida last week wasn’t typical of what we’ve seen from them under Golesh. The Bulls were 1-3 ATS as underdogs of 10.5 to 21 under Golesh before taking down the Gators.
South Florida vs. Miami Prediction
Our VSiN betting splits show a lot of love for the visitors, as South Florida has taken nearly 75% of the bets. However, if you feel the need to take something in this game, I’d suggest laying the points. The Bulls have to be a little fatigued both physically and mentally. They’ll also be at a significant disadvantage in the talent department here.
LEAN: Miami -16.5 (-123)
