South Florida vs. San Jose State:

Spending Christmas in Hawaii is never a bad thing. I should know. I did it last year. The South Florida Bulls and San Jose State Spartans may very well do the same this year after playing in the Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve. It is sure to be an emotional day for San Jose State head coach Ken Niumataolo, a Hawaii native who played QB for the Rainbow Warriors from 1986-89 and started his coaching career there as a graduate assistant from 1990-94.

This is also the first Hawaii Bowl appearance for the Bulls and their first bowl game outside of the Sunshine State since the 2017 Birmingham Bowl under Charlie Strong. After a 45-0 trouncing of Syracuse in the Boca Raton Bowl last year, head coach Alex Golesh is hoping to go west and pick up a big win.

 

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Hawaii Bowl: South Florida Bulls vs. San Jose State Spartans (-3.5, 62.5)

How to Watch the Hawaii Bowl

When: Tuesday December 24

Time: 8 p.m. ET

How: ESPN

Pay close attention to the news cycle for this bowl game, as whispers are getting louder that Byrum Brown will be able to give it a go for USF. Brown, who hasn’t played since the loss to Tulane on September 28, has been practicing with the team for a while and seems to be as close to game-ready as he’s been. The additional layoff since the loss to Rice in late November has helped.

Backup-turned-starter Bryce Archie completed 58% of his passes with a 9/9 TD/INT ratio and added 137 yards on the ground. Brown had 269 rushing yards on 68 attempts before getting hurt and had a 59.1% completion rate with a 2/0 TD/INT ratio. Third-string QB Israel Carter is in the transfer portal. Brown may want to use this game to prove that he is healthy to get some NIL money from another program or secure a more favorable commitment from his own team. He had over 4,000 total yards last season and 37 touchdowns.

San Jose State does not have a glaring QB question, but will be without a top player in Nick Nash. The standout wide receiver had 104 catches for 1,382 yards and 16 touchdowns as he waits to hear his name called during the NFL Draft. His absence creates a huge opportunity for Justin Lockhart to stand out, as he was second with 52 catches and 973 yards as more of a big-play threat.

Backup QB Emmett Brown had a 16/5 TD/INT ratio, but lost the job to Walker Eget, who only had an 11/9 TD/INT ratio. The running game also managed just 3.4 yards per carry. Outside of Nash, this was a lackluster offense in a lot of areas. So, it will be interesting to see what Niumatalolo draws up and how Lockhart gets open with more attention.

Defensively, the Spartans had far and away the better unit, allowing 5.12 yards per play compared to over 5.9 for the Bulls. USF did play a tricky non-conference slate and gave up 7.5 YPP to the two Power Four opponents that they played, but still gave up nearly 5.8 YPP in AAC action. The teams played mostly identical strengths of schedule per Jeff Sagarin, with USF at 99 and SJSU at 92.

I think both teams will be sufficiently motivated here, so I don’t think we have to worry about mindset or psychology. All we have to worry about is whether or not Brown plays and hopefully we know with some lead time. Tentatively, I’ll sway to the San Jose State side for having the better defense and Brown being rusty, if he plays.

Pick: San Jose State -3.5

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