There are many reasons as to why college teams perform at varying levels in certain situations. Some teams may perform best when they feel they are being overlooked; others may be overwhelmed by that underdog role. There are always teams that play better at home than on the road, and even vice versa. Some teams have adapted a certain style of play that bodes well for betting on one side of the total or the other. Whatever the case, when these performance levels tend to gain consistency over the course of multiple seasons, that’s when they must be considered as part of the handicapping routine. With that in mind, as we head into the first full week of the 2026 season, I thought I’d dig through the database and speak on 60 different college football teams that have developed significant tendencies bettors should be aware of. Along with the teams and trends, I’ve offered up my own on the trend(s) as well as the potential game(s) in which the trends could be in play.

I will be bookmarking these on a weekly betting calendar, and I would suggest you do the same to see if they continue into 2026. If you don’t, no worries, many or all of them will be regularly featured as reminders on our weekly CFB Analytics Reports!

If you missed any of my college football preseason prep work, be sure to download the VSiN College Football Betting Guide, OR, visit VSiN.com and browse to my author page. Enjoy the trends; hopefully they help you spot some winning plays this season. They are sorted by team name.

AKRON 
* AKRON is 13-24 ATS (28%) for –13.4 units vs. NON-CONFERENCE foes since 2016
* AKRON is 13-26 ATS (31.4%) for –15.6 units at HOME since 2018
Steve’s thoughts: These are ugly numbers, especially the home trend. And the record for that one spans a decade. Head coach Joe Moorhead has been around for the last four seasons. He doesn’t appear to have what it takes to turn it around.
Potential spots for 2026: Akron has six home games overall and four non-conference tilts to start the season. The trends congregate for the 9/12 Robert Morris and 9/26 UNLV home games.

APPALACHIAN STATE   
* APPALACHIAN ST is 8-21 ATS (27.6%) for -15.1 units as a FAVORITE since 2022
Steve’s thoughts: The 2022 season was the first that began the recent struggles for Appalachian State. Prior to that, the Mountaineers had gone 43-10 in the prior four seasons. It seems the expectations didn’t drop much. ASU just hasn’t been able to meet them.
Potential spots for 2026: My power ratings show ASU projected to be favored in four games, including this week versus Maine. The first FBS favorite opportunity figures to come versus Charlotte on 9/19.

ARIZONA 
* ARIZONA is 21-33 ATS (38.9%) for -15.3 units in ROAD/NEUTRAL games since 2016
Steve’s thoughts: It is a huge problem for a program with conference title aspirations to not be able to perform consistently on the road. If this continues in 2026, don’t count Arizona among the surprise contenders in the Big 12.
Potential spots for 2026: The Wildcats have five road games and should be underdogs in three of them. There are several opportunities to test this angle. Look for the trend to be first active for the Wildcats’ huge road game at BYU in Week 2.

ARIZONA STATE   
* ARIZONA ST is 13-5 ATS (72.2%) for +7.5 units in ROAD/NEUTRAL games over the last three seasons
* ARIZONA ST is 9-2 ATS (81.8%) for +6.8 units as a FAVORITE over the last two seasons
Steve’s thoughts: Head coach Kenny Dillingham has turned around a couple of trends that were holding ASU back prior to his arrival, those being the ability to win on the road and to take care of business when favored.
Potential spots for 2026: The schedule shows ASU playing six road/neutral contests, including Week 2 at Texas A&M. My power ratings also call for the Sun Devils to be favored on eight occasions. Both angles should be in play for ASU’s Week 3 contest versus Kansas in London.

ARKANSAS    
* ARKANSAS is 20-12 ATS (62.5%) for +6.8 units in ROAD/NEUTRAL games since 2020
Steve’s thoughts: Despite a 13-24 record overall in the last three seasons, the Razorbacks have been an extremely reliable team to back on the road, even when supposedly overmatched.
Potential spots for 2026: Arkansas has five road games in 2026, and should be a double-digit underdog at least three times in those contests. These have been the best spots to back this program recently, although former QB Taylen Green’s ability to help his team put up big point totals could have been a huge contributing factor. He is off to the NFL now.

BOISE STATE
* BOISE STATE is 14-4 ATS (77.8%) for +9.6 units coming off an outright loss since 2020
Steve’s thoughts: One of the best traits a reliable program for bettors can boast is the ability to bounce back from setbacks, as this is commonly a time when a lot of them stay away. Many bettors’ memories are short, and this causes overreactions often.
Potential spots for 2026: I have the Broncos expected to win in all but one game. That lone loss? Week 1 at Oregon, meaning Week 2 at home versus Memphis could be a solid spot to back them.

CHARLOTTE 
* CHARLOTTE is 13-5 ATS (72.2%) for +7.5 units in ROAD/NEUTRAL games over the last three seasons
* CHARLOTTE is 5-19 ATS (20.8%) for -15.9 units at HOME since 2022
Steve’s thoughts: You’ll see there are several teams like this that share the unexpected tendency of being a far better program on the road than at home. The 50% swing for Charlotte is one of the biggest disparities.
Potential spots for 2026: Charlotte has six home games and six road games for 2026. This week the 49ers host The Citadel and are hefty 19.5-point favorites. The following week they are at Ole Miss and will be heavy dogs. If recent trends hold, they have a far better chance of covering the Vegas number in Oxford.

CINCINNATI 
* CINCINNATI is 10-23 ATS (30.3%) for -15.3 units vs. CONFERENCE opponents since 2022
* CINCINNATI is 9-17 ATS (34.6%) for -9.7 units at HOME since 2022
* CINCINNATI is 6-18 ATS (25%) for -13.8 units as an UNDERDOG since 2021
Steve’s thoughts: Cincinnati hits the trifecta here with being a play against team in three common spots. These angles seem to have all developed since former head coach Luke Fickell departed. Under him, they were a tremendous team to back regularly and developed quite a home-field edge.
Potential spots for 2026: If you’re looking for any spots where the three trends converge, where Cincinnati will be a conference home underdog, try three potential contests: versus Kansas State (9/26), Texas Tech (10/24), and Utah (10/31)

CLEMSON
* CLEMSON is 7-19 ATS (26.9%) for -13.9 units vs. NON-CONFERENCE foes since 2022
Steve’s thoughts: This trend is certainly a sign of how Clemson has fallen recently from the elite tier of college football. In the championship days under head coach Dabo Swinney, the Tigers could match up with anyone and were able to live up to lofty oddsmaker expectations. Now, not so much.
Potential spots for 2026: This non-conference trend gets tested right away in a difficult non-conference tilt at LSU on Saturday night.

COLORADO  
* COLORADO is 12-5 ATS (70.6%) for +6.5 units coming off an outright loss over the last three seasons
Steve’s thoughts: For as much as Colorado hasn’t lived up to the hype since the arrival of head coach Deion Sanders, this trend does prove that he has some strong merits as a head coach. He is able to lift his team after setbacks, and not many other programs respond at this level accordingly.
Potential spots for 2026: Unfortunately for the Buffaloes, I have them slated to be underdogs in 10 games, and they aren’t expected to win in this week’s opener at Georgia Tech. Should they fall in Atlanta on Thursday, the first chance to test their resiliency will be at home versus Weber State in Week 2.

DUKE    
* DUKE is 37-20 ATS (64.9%) for +15 units vs. NON-CONFERENCE foes since 2014
Steve’s thoughts: The defending ACC champs were pretty good in league play last season, going 6-2-1 ATS. However, the Blue Devils have been consistently good out of the ACC for over a decade, hitting almost 2/3 of the time against the spread.
Potential spots for 2026: Duke takes on three non-conference foes this season, all in the first four weeks. It starts with Tulane at home this weekend, then continues with a rematch at Illinois in Week 2. The Illini tagged the Blue Devils last year in Durham, 45-19.

EASTERN MICHIGAN     
* EASTERN MICHIGAN is 45-24 ATS (65.2%) for +18.6 units in ROAD/NEUTRAL games since 2015
Steve’s thoughts: Eastern Michigan got its 2026 season off to a solid start with a win and cover at home against Sacramento State last week. The season continues with another California school coming to town for Week 1. However, bettors should be anxiously awaiting the Week 2 game at Michigan State, as the Eagles have been an incredibly reliable wager on the road.
Potential spots for 2026: Besides two games at Big Ten foes in Weeks 2 and 3 (MSU and Wisconsin), EMU faces four true road MAC games and a neutral-site tilt versus Central Michigan.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC
* FLORIDA ATLANTIC is 7-18 ATS (28%) for -12.8 units coming off an outright win since 2020
* FLORIDA ATLANTIC is 6-11 ATS (35.3%) for -6.1 units at HOME over the last three seasons
Steve’s thoughts: There haven’t been many things that have gone well at FAU since Lane Kiffin left, but the Owls have been particularly bad at home and when coming off a win.
Potential spots for 2026: Neither of these FAU trends will be in play for their season opener at Florida, but the Owls do host Navy in Week 2. There are five other home games, and these trends could converge in the Week 5 game versus Texas Southern after a likely win at ULM in Week 4.

GEORGIA
* GEORGIA is 11-23 ATS (32.4%) for -14.3 units coming off an outright win over the last three seasons
* GEORGIA is 11-20 ATS (35.5%) for -11 units at HOME since 2021
Steve’s thoughts: There has been a lot of focus on X this week about Georgia’s struggles to cover huge point spreads. The truth is that the Bulldogs have struggled in a number of betting spots, as oddsmakers have put sometimes unrealistic expectations on the program. The inability to string complete efforts together has to be a concern for a perennial national title contender.
Potential spots for 2026: Georgia plays seven games in Athens this year, and there will certainly be a lot of chances to fade the Bulldogs after wins. The first opportunity for these trends to converge figures to be in Week 2 against Western Kentucky.

GEORGIA STATE   
* GEORGIA STATE is 22-14 ATS (61.1%) for +6.6 units in ROAD/NEUTRAL games since 2020
* GEORGIA STATE is 6-17 ATS (26.1%) for -12.7 units at HOME since 2022
Steve’s thoughts: Here’s another program that has been far better on the road than at home in recent years. Georgia State won just once in 2026 outright and just twice ATS. Perhaps head coach Del McGee’s team isn’t worth your betting dollar in either spot, however, until things turn around.
Potential spots for 2026: GSU opens as a huge favorite versus NC A&T this weekend at home, then plays two straight on the road. Those three games might be enough of a sample to determine whether or not these trends figure to continue into 2026.

GEORGIA TECH    
* GEORGIA TECH is 16-27 ATS (37.2%) for -13.7 units coming off an outright win since 2018
* GEORGIA TECH is 11-23 ATS (32.4%) for -14.3 units as a FAVORITE since 2018
Steve’s thoughts: For many years, Georgia Tech has been best as a program that is getting disrespected rather than one that has high expectations. With QB Haynes King off to the NFL, the Yellow Jackets are being looked at as a middle-of-the-road team for 2026.
Potential spots for 2026: The first game this Thursday will test the chalk trend with Georgia Tech as they are about a TD favorite at home versus Colorado and there is about 77% of the bets at DraftKings backing the hosts. Could be a dangerous spot for bettors.

ILLINOIS  
* ILLINOIS is 19-9 ATS (67.9%) for +9.1 units in ROAD/NEUTRAL games since 2021
Steve’s thoughts: There is no disputing that head coach Bret Bielema has taken the Illinois program to new heights during his tenure. New Year’s Day bowl games and nine-win seasons were a thing of the past before his arrival. Much of the turnaround can be credited to the Illini’s ability to win on the road nowadays.
Potential spots for 2026: With just five road games in all, the Illini don’t play on the road until Week 4 at Ohio State. My numbers have them playing as road chalk in all four other games. It would be another big season for Illinois if they win all of those.

INDIANA  
* INDIANA is 27-14 (65.9%) OVER the total for +11.6 units over the last three seasons
* INDIANA is 12-4 ATS (75%) for +7.6 units as a FAVORITE over the last two seasons
Steve’s thoughts: Things have definitely changed for Indiana football since head coach Curt Cignetti’s arrival. Offensively, the old Hoosiers’ program is unrecognizable now. Obviously, a national title comes with a whole new set of expectations, however, and with former TCU transfer QB Josh Hoover now under center, 2026 doesn’t figure to slow this program down.
Potential spots for 2026: My power ratings and schedule show that Indiana may only be an underdog once, and even that is debatable: a home game versus Ohio State in mid-October. I would expect this team to continue to score a lot of points, starting this week versus a North Texas team that is essentially starting over on defense.

IOWA    
* IOWA is 16-10 (61.5%) OVER the total for +5 units over the last two seasons
Steve’s thoughts: You might be surprised by this trend, as Iowa built a reputation early in the decade as a grind-it-out, defensive slugfest type of team. The past two seasons have been different, with the Hawkeyes putting up 27.7 and 29.3 PPG offensively. The totals haven’t moved that much. As bettors, we have to adapt.
Potential spots for 2026: The Hawkeyes are going to be a big favorite in each of their first three games, giving them a chance to get up to speed offensively as they start fresh at quarterback. The defense also brings back just four starters, so don’t assume low-scoring games are forthcoming.

KANSAS STATE
* KANSAS STATE is 23-13 ATS (63.9%) for +8.7 units coming off an outright loss since 2018
Steve’s thoughts: I’ve written about this already, but solid programs don’t dwell on losses; they bounce back better from them. This trend dates back to 2018 and two different coaches. The third grabs the reins this year with Collin Klein taking over. This seems like a program trend rather than a coach trend.
Potential spots for 2026: The Wildcats figure to be at least a 4.5-point favorite in their first four games according to my numbers, so the first real test of this trend could come after the huge Houston game at home in Week 6. That next opponent for 10/17 is rival Kansas, another home contest.

KENT STATE 
* KENT STATE is 15-28 ATS (34.9%) for -15.8 units as an UNDERDOG since 2020
Steve’s thoughts: This is a terrible tendency for a program like Kent State because the Golden Flashes are often an underdog. Over the last four seasons, they are just 11-37 outright.
Potential spots for 2026: My projections show KSU being an underdog NINE times in 2026, starting this week at South Carolina. However, if this team is competitive in that game, and QB Dru DeShields is back after a big season in 2025, this trend has the potential to turn.

KENTUCKY   
* KENTUCKY is 19-9 ATS (67.9%) for +9.1 units vs. NON-CONFERENCE foes since 2019
Steve’s thoughts: One of the best trends that formed in the former head coach Mark Stoops era was the solid play for Kentucky against non-conference foes. SEC action was a different story.
Potential spots for 2026: With Stoops gone, the job of maintaining this non-SEC trend falls to first-time head coach Will Stein. The first test of the angle comes Saturday versus Youngstown State. A big line and big total await.

LIBERTY  
* LIBERTY is 26-12 ATS (68.4%) for +12.8 units as an UNDERDOG since 2014
Steve’s thoughts: Liberty was a better program under Hugh Freeze when it was in a “shock the world” mentality. The Flames thrived when trying to prove they belonged at the FBS level. The last couple of seasons, however, they are 3-9 ATS as favorites.
Potential spots for 2026: Liberty opens as a TD underdog to James Madison and new head coach Billy Napier on Saturday. Coming off a 4-8 campaign in which little went right, head coach Jamey Chadwell’s team could really use an effort that extends this trend by a win. I only see them as an underdog in one other potential game.

MARSHALL   
* MARSHALL is 9-0 ATS (100%) for +9 units as an UNDERDOG over the last two seasons
Steve’s thoughts: Two different coaches, two solid seasons as underdogs for the Herd. Head coach Tony Gibson hopes his team can maintain its underdog success in 2026, giving it a shot to contend in a wide-open Sun Belt Conference.
Potential spots for 2026: Marshall has a big underdog spot to open the season, a clash at Penn State against a completely new and rebuilt Nittany Lions team. The Herd has a lot back on offense, including QB Carlos Del Rio-Wilson, who had a big year in 2025. Should PSU be on upset alert?

MARYLAND  
* MARYLAND is 2-6 ATS (25%) for -4.6 units coming off an outright win over the last two seasons
Steve’s thoughts: Stacking wins is a big step toward reaching the next level in college football, particularly when you play an annual schedule as tough as Maryland’s typically is. This trend is much of the reason the Terps can’t get over the eight-win hump.
Potential spots for 2026: Head coach Mike Locksley’s team is almost certain to win against Hampton is Week 1, setting up a Week 2 clash with a new-look UConn team on the road in Week 2. In all likelihood, Maryland will be a sizable favorite, setting up for a difficult covering spot again.

MIAMI (FL)
* MIAMI (FL) is 11-21 ATS (34.4%) for -12.1 units vs. CONFERENCE opponents since 2022
Steve’s thoughts: Miami made a huge playoff run last year to reach the national title game. Fortunately for them, none of the matchups were against fellow ACC schools, because it has been in those games where the Hurricanes have
floundered, or at least underperformed recently.
Potential spots for 2026: Miami opens its season as a huge favorite at Stanford, who yes, is an ACC foe.

MICHIGAN    
* MICHIGAN is 21-12 ATS (63.6%) for +7.8 units in ROAD/NEUTRAL games since 2021
Steve’s thoughts: It’s thought that the Big House in Ann Arbor offers one of the best home-field advantages in all of college football. Unfortunately, Michigan is also usually much overpriced when playing at home lately. The Wolverines have proven to be a far better covering team on the road lately. They are actually 21-12-2 ATS over the last five seasons away from home. However, they were 2-5 ATS last year.
Potential spots for 2026: Be careful when laying big numbers with Michigan at home, although they are starting fresh with head coach Kyle Whittingham, and he may be anxious to restore the Big House to all its glory. The first team comes with a -27.5 point spread on Saturday versus Western Michigan. The first road tilt isn’t till 10/3 at Minnesota.

MICHIGAN STATE
* MICHIGAN STATE is 0-7 ATS (0%) for -7.7 units as a FAVORITE over the last two seasons
Steve’s thoughts: New head coach Pat Fitzgerald steps into an unenviable situation where the team he takes over is looking to get back to the past, or the days when football almost started to rival basketball as the sport of choice on campus. First order of business will be to win the games his team is supposed to.
Potential spots for 2026: We got a bucking of trends on Friday already as Toledo is running an underdog winning streak ATS of seven games, and Michigan State is on the exact same skid as a favorite. Oddsmakers don’t seem to care, as MSU is almost a 10-point favorite for the game. If nothing changes early, the first two games might be the only ones they are favored in this season.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE  
* MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE is 16-32 ATS (33.3%) for -19.2 units coming off an outright win since 2016
Steve’s thoughts: This trend is a decade-long angle, and a big reason why MTSU is stuck in a rut right now in Conference USA. This program is 10-26 over the last three seasons and hasn’t won more than eight games in any year of this trend.
Potential spots for 2026: After a 3-9 season in 2025, the expectations aren’t that high for head coach Derek Mason’s Blue Raiders in 2026, so they won’t be favored all that often. However, one spot to watch for is in Week 2 when MTSU visits Marshall, as they should be coming off a season-opening win over Murray State.

MISSOURI
* MISSOURI is 12-5 ATS (70.6%) for +6.5 units in ROAD/NEUTRAL games over the last three seasons
Steve’s thoughts: You need some real perspective to understand this road trend with Missouri, because the Tigers actually boast a 20-3 outright home record over the last three seasons. However, they’ve been a better team at covering point spreads on the road, particularly when playing in the SEC underdog role.
Potential spots for 2026: Mizzou has six road games slated for 2026, and in three of them, my power rating projections show them favored. Will these prove tougher games to continue this trend? Are the contests at Ole Miss (10/17) and Georgia (11/14) the best options?

NORTHERN ILLINOIS    
* NORTHERN ILLINOIS is 21-13 ATS (61.8%) for +6.7 units in ROAD/NEUTRAL games since 2021
* NORTHERN ILLINOIS is 4-19 ATS (17.4%) for -16.9 units at HOME since 2022
* NORTHERN ILLINOIS is 16-35 ATS (31.4%) for -22.5 units as a FAVORITE since 2017
Steve’s thoughts: As you can see, there are three trends showing very definitive tendencies for Northern Illinois lately. The Huskies have been very reliable on the road but a near auto-fade at home and in the favorite role. However, there is a coaching AND conference change for 2026, and those types of things do have the potential to alter tendencies.
Potential spots for 2026: We’ll get a first look at a remade NIU team on Saturday and Iowa, and the Huskies are rightfully a huge underdog in the first game of the head coach Rob Harley era. In recent years, NIU would almost certainly cover this game. Why am I not so confident now?

NC STATE
* NC STATE is 8-14 ATS (36.4%) for -7.4 units vs. NON-CONFERENCE foes since 2022
* NC STATE is 10-19 ATS (34.5%) for -10.9 units in ROAD/NEUTRAL games since 2021
Steve’s thoughts: It was a rough start for head coach Dave Doeren and NC State last Saturday, as the Wolf Pack were dominated on the road at Virginia. Unfortunately, playing on the road is not the Wolfpack’s strong suit.
Potential spots for 2026: NC State hosts Richmond on 9/11 and Appalachian State on 9/26, and the non-conference trend will be tested in those games. The next road spot for NC State is at Vanderbilt on 9/19.

NEBRASKA    
* NEBRASKA is 6-12 ATS (33.3%) for -7.2 units coming off an outright win since 2022
Steve’s thoughts: The Nebraska football program seems like it has been stuck in neutral for the last half-decade or so, and one of the primary reasons is that it hasn’t responded well to success. Stringing wins together is an important part of taking that next step.
Potential spots for 2026: The Cornhuskers will be double-digit home favorites in their first three games, so this trend should get tested early and often. Can head coach Matt Rhule finally get his team over the hump? A 3-0 SU and ATS start certainly would help build confidence, but this trend shows that’s unlikely.

NEW MEXICO  
* NEW MEXICO is 23-14 (62.2%) OVER the total for +7.6 units over the last three seasons
* NEW MEXICO is 16-30 ATS (34.8%) for -17 units as a FAVORITE since 2014
Steve’s thoughts: Before head coach Jason Eck took over last season, New Mexico was off of two straight seasons allowing 35+ PPG in a row. The Lobos were tremendously improved in that area last year but still played in plenty of high-scoring games. With QB Jack Layne now out for the season due to injury, will this trend continue? The expectations are still high after last year’s 9-4 campaign, even without Layne, so the Lobos should be favored in about ¾ of their games.
Potential spots for 2026: Even as a favorite in last year’s breakout season, head coach Eck’s team was just 3-3 ATS as chalk. By all accounts, it seems that oddsmakers aren’t gauging the 2025 Lobos’ season as a fluke, as they were the presumptive favorite in the Mountain West. Covering chalk spreads could prove more difficult with an untested starter at QB. The challenge starts Saturday at home versus Central Michigan.

NORTH CAROLINA
* NORTH CAROLINA is 2-10 ATS (16.7%) for -9 units at HOME over the last two seasons
Steve’s thoughts: Chapel Hill has been Chapel Hell for UNC the last two seasons when it comes to covering point spreads, as the Tar Heels have done that just twice in the last 12 tries. After an unexpected season-opening upset in Dublin against TCU, however, could things be changing for head coach Bill Belichick’s program?
Potential spots for 2026: North Carolina tries to build on its upset of TCU in a home non-conference tilt on 9/12 versus East Tennessee State. Expectations will be high, and so will the point spread. The Tar Heels have five other home games in 2026 to try and turn this horrible trend around.

NOTRE DAME  
* NOTRE DAME is 39-19 ATS (67.2%) for +18.1 units in ROAD/NEUTRAL games since 2017
* NOTRE DAME is 37-17 ATS (68.5%) for +18.3 units as a FAVORITE since 2021
Steve’s thoughts: Notre Dame is a popular national title pick for 2026 and comes back loaded with a lot of talent and experience. These two very strong trends are traits of national title-worthy programs, as the truly elite teams are always good on the road and they take care of business when they are supposed to.
Potential spots for 2026: Sunday will be the first test for both of these trends as Notre Dame takes on a reeling Wisconsin program at Lambeau Field. The Badgers have a ton of pride, though, and the last time they played in Green Bay they pulled an upset of ranked LSU. If the Irish truly are national title worthy, they will win this game convincingly. There are five other spots on the 2026 slate where head coach Marcus Freeman’s team figures to be a hefty road/neutral favorite.

OLD DOMINION     
* OLD DOMINION is 15-6 ATS (71.4%) for +8.4 units as an UNDERDOG over the last three seasons
Steve’s thoughts: Old Dominion broke out last season under head coach Ricky Rahne, as QB Kolten Joseph, now with Wisconsin, had a huge year in leading the team to 10 wins. Even still, they were just 4-4 ATS as a favorite as opposed to 4-1 ATS as a dog. The Monarchs’ best games came early in the season, as usual in the underdog role.
Potential spots for 2026: My numbers show that ODU should be favored in at least nine games, starting this week versus Norfolk State. Of course, if the Monarchs continue to perform miserably in the chalk role, that number of games being favored might be down noticeably. However, that would actually be beneficial considering the recent history.

OLE MISS
* OLE MISS is 23-9 ATS (71.9%) for +13.1 units vs. NON-CONFERENCE foes since 2020
Steve’s thoughts: Not coincidentally, this trend spanned the entire duration of the head coach Lane Kiffin era in Oxford. Ole Miss has been one of several SEC teams that have thrived when out of league play, and that is a must for any team looking to be elite, as the grind of the SEC schedule can wear anyone down.
Potential spots for 2026: This non-SEC trend gets a huge test early, as on Sunday, Ole Miss takes on Louisville in Nashville. The other two non-conference games will feature huge spreads, 9/12 versus Charlotte and 11/21 against Wofford.

OREGON  
* OREGON is 28-13 ATS (68.3%) for +13.7 units as a FAVORITE since 2022
Steve’s thoughts: Oregon has been a team that tends to take care of business against overmatched foes in recent years, and perhaps has even been accused of being too preoccupied with covering big point spreads in such games.
Potential spots for 2026: The Ducks have CFP aspirations in 2026 and figure to be favored in 11 of their 12 games, including some impactful home contests versus the likes of USC, Michigan, and Washington.

PENN STATE 
* PENN STATE is 31-16 ATS (66%) for +13.4 units as a FAVORITE since 2021
Steve’s thoughts: For those not in the know, the moniker “Big Game James” was actually sarcasm, as former head coach James Franklin’s team developed tendencies for walloping the overmatched opponents but failing to live up to expectations against similar or better opponents. New head coach Matt Campbell has an almost polar opposite reputation. Will this trend and the opposite of it change in 2026?
Potential spots for 2026: We get a first big test of this trend on Saturday, when Penn State hosts Marshall as a hefty -24.5 point favorite. In the Franklin days, PSU probably would have rolled. Will this new and completely remade version do the same, or is this number putting undue pressure on the Nittany Lions? Regardless of what happens on Saturday, PSU will be favored often.

PURDUE
* PURDUE is 4-10 ATS (28.6%) for -7 units coming off outright win since 2022
* PURDUE is 11-25 ATS (30.6%) for -16.5 units at HOME since 2020
Steve’s thoughts: Purdue has endured a three-year struggle of 7-29 football, and the trend suggesting that the Boilermakers have laid eggs after most of their seven wins during that span is simply a microcosm of what is wrong. Being unable to put good efforts together at home suggests the end of the struggles isn’t near.
Potential spots for 2026: This coming Friday’s game at home versus Indiana State is the ONLY one this season in which my power ratings indicate that Purdue should win. This despite six other home games on the schedule. The Week 2 home contest versus Wake Forest would set up as the double whammy then.

RUTGERS
* RUTGERS is 17-5 ATS (77.3%) for +11.5 units vs. NON-CONFERENCE foes since 2019
Steve’s thoughts: Rutgers’ success versus non-conference opponents has salvaged what could have been some much uglier seasons in recent years as the Scarlet Knights haven’t been over-.500 SU nor ATS in any conference campaign since 2020.
Potential spots for 2026: There are three spots to take advantage of this non-Big Ten trend for head coach Greg Schiano’s team in 2026, starting this week with a rather large point spread game versus UMass. Rutgers figures to be favored in both the Boston College and Howard games as well.

SOUTH ALABAMA
* SOUTH ALABAMA is 19-40 ATS (32.2%) for -25 units coming off an outright win since 2014
Steve’s thoughts: This is one of the longer-running trends in this entire article and one of the most negative unit angles as well. That means the tendency has been consistently reliable. It is a primary reason that South Alabama has had only one season with more than seven wins in that span.
Potential spots for 2026: The most probable spots that this trend will be tested in for 2026 by the Jaguars are in week 2 at Tulane and in week 6 at Arkansas State.

SAN JOSE STATE   
* SAN JOSE STATE is 3-12 ATS (20%) for -10.2 units vs. CONFERENCE opponents over the last two seasons
Steve’s thoughts: Although San Jose State did rally for an impressive point spread cover last week at USC, there hasn’t been a whole lot that has gone right for head coach Ken Niumatalolo since his arrival. One of the worst spots for his Spartans has been in conference action.
Potential spots for 2026: SJSU has several new conference mates in the Mountain West this season, so perhaps this could have a positive impact on the program. However, until the trend turns, consider games like 10/3 at Hawaii and 10/10 vs. Wyoming as strong potential fade opportunities.

SOUTHERN MISS   
* SOUTHERN MISS is 8-15 ATS (34.8%) for -8.5 units coming off an outright loss over the last three seasons
Steve’s thoughts: Blake Anderson becomes the third coach in as many years at Southern Miss, and one of the truly defining signs of a team that has lacked leadership is their inability to bounce back from losses. Instead, they let setbacks snowball and overtake them.
Potential spots for 2026: The Golden Eagles are picked last by most experts in the Sun Belt Conference and are only expected to be favored in one game by my power ratings, so losses will be aplenty. The first opportunity to play this trend figures to come in Week 3 when USM hosts UConn.

STANFORD    
* STANFORD is 20-40 ATS (33.3%) for -24 units in ALL games since 2021
* STANFORD is 14-25 ATS (35.9%) for -13.5 units at HOME since 2019
* STANFORD is 20-40 ATS (33.3%) for -24 units as an UNDERDOG since 2019
Steve’s thoughts: Stanford was quite fortunate to both win and cover this past Saturday in its opener against Hawaii, perhaps signaling a positive transition forward for a program that has been stuck in the three- to four-win range for several seasons. The only one of the trends that didn’t get positively impacted by that result was the underdog angle.
Potential spots for 2026: All three of these trends will get tested on Friday when Stanford and new head coach Tavita Pritchard welcome defending national runner-up Miami (FL) to town. I have the Cardinal as home dogs three other times in 2026.

TEMPLE
* TEMPLE is 10-4 ATS (71.4%) for +5.6 units coming off an outright loss over last two seasons
Steve’s thoughts: I’ve noted it on several occasions already, but teams that are unable to stack wins, or even solid performances together, have no chance at improving. It’s a trait of a bad program. At the same time, teams that bounce back well from losses are building a foundation for eventual success.
Potential spots for 2026: Temple hasn’t been to a bowl game since 2019 although its five wins a year ago got the Owls close. They could be on the verge of doing so this year. The first likely chance to back Temple after a loss figures to come in Week 3 at Toledo.

TENNESSEE
* TENNESSEE is 17-9 ATS (65.4%) for +7.1 units vs. NON-CONFERENCE foes since 2022
* TENNESSEE is 6-15 ATS (28.6%) for -10.5 units as an UNDERDOG since 2020
* TENNESSEE is 27-16 ATS (62.8%) for +9.4 units as a FAVORITE since 2021
Steve’s thoughts: Well, look at that, another SEC program that thrives when expected to win and when out of league play but struggles when playing in the underdog spot against better teams. These tendencies are the primary reasons that Tennessee remains a tier 2 or lower team in the SEC.
Potential spots for 2026: Tennessee will be favored in all three of its non-conference tilts, including Week 2 at Georgia Tech. However, my power ratings do have Tennessee as a could be underdog in up to five SEC games this season.

TEXAS A&M 
* TEXAS A&M is 4-15 ATS (21.1%) for -8.1 units vs. NON-CONFERENCE foes since 2022
Steve’s thoughts: Texas A&M is one of the rare cases where an SEC team has proven to be better against the spread versus league foes than against non-conference opponents. The Aggies have done so in four straight years.
Potential spots for 2026: A&M’s non-conference games are all home tilts, up first versus Missouri State on Saturday, and oddsmakers have put a treacherous line in place for head coach Mike Elko’s team, -41.5-point favorite!

TEXAS TECH
* TEXAS TECH is 18-4 ATS (81.8%) for +13.6 units coming off an outright loss since 2021
Steve’s thoughts: After the huge season that Texas Tech put together last year, it’s hard to believe that the Red Raiders have lost 30 games since the start of the 2020 season. However, after each defeat, they seem to bring a solid rebound effort, and back-to-back duds have been rare.
Potential spots for 2026: This is one trend that might not even get tested in 2026, since my power ratings indicate that the smallest level of favorite the Red Raiders will be is -12.2 points, and that is against Houston in Week 3. If Texas Tech should lose any game, be ready to pounce the next week.

TULANE
* TULANE is 21-13 ATS (61.8%) for +6.7 units in ROAD/NEUTRAL games since 2021
* TULANE is 50-27 ATS (64.9%) for +20.3 units as a FAVORITE since 2014
Steve’s thoughts: Tulane has been one of the best overall teams to back on a regular basis in college football over the last decade. New head coach Will Hall will be the third coach during that run and will try to keep some very positive long-running trends going, including being strong on the road and when favored.
Potential spots for 2026: Tulane is on the road this week at Duke but not favored. There are several occasions where the Green Wave will be favored this season, and the most likely games on the road include 10/30 at Charlotte and 11/14 at Rice.

TULSA  
* TULSA is 44-24 ATS (64.7%) for +17.6 units in ROAD/NEUTRAL games since 2015
* TULSA is 24-43 ATS (35.8%) for -23.3 units at HOME since 2014
Steve’s thoughts: Like several other programs already detailed, Tulsa has been a much better wager on the road than at home in recent seasons. In fact, on the road, the Golden Hurricane have been one of the nation’s best overall when it comes to covering point spreads, doing so nearly 2/3 of the time over the last decade-plus.
Potential spots for 2026: Tulsa starts the season at home, where it typically struggles versus expectations, against a rebuilt Oklahoma State squad. This program is expected to be improved in a lesser AAC this year, but until it proves so, I’d probably stay away in home games. Other contests on the road against the likes of Arkansas, Navy, etc, could be ripe for the picking.

UAB 
* UAB is 2-14 ATS (12.5%) for -13.4 units coming off an outright win since 2022
Steve’s thoughts: This trend could be the single worst one of any of the 87 I have or will be presenting. The Blazers simply can’t handle success, as they’ve laid down with ugly performances following their last 16 victories.
Potential spots for 2026: Fortunately for the Blazers (or unfortunately based on your perspective), wins are usually few and far between lately as this program struggles to re-find its footing. The most probable spot for a win comes on 10/3 at home versus Samford, and the follow-up game is the next Saturday at Memphis.

UNLV    
* UNLV is 28-11 ATS (71.8%) for +15.9 units vs. NON-CONFERENCE foes since 2018
* UNLV is 24-11 ATS (68.6%) for +11.9 units in ROAD/NEUTRAL games since 2021
Steve’s thoughts: UNLV’s non-conference trend already took a loss last week in the opener versus Memphis. Perhaps it’s because that game was played at home. The Runnin’ Rebels have played their best and most reliable football on the road in recent years.
Potential spots for 2026: UNLV plays six road games this season, starting with a conference affair at Hawaii this week. However, in the two games after that, these trends will converge, first on 9/12 at North Texas, then on 9/26 at Akron.

USC 
* USC is 36-18 OVER the total (66.7%) for +16.2 units since 2022
Steve’s thoughts: This is about the most public trend on this list, as pretty much everyone knows that USC gets into shootouts week in and week out. Even still, Over the total has still managed to hit at a 66.7% rate over the last 4+ seasons, including last week against San Jose State.
Potential spots for 2026: Pick a game; the first chance is Friday versus Fresno State.

UTAH STATE
* UTAH STATE is 14-4 ATS (77.8%) for +9.6 units at HOME over the last three seasons
Steve’s thoughts: Logan has become a tough place to visit for teams, as Utah State has built up a pretty significant home-field advantage in recent years. Last year, the Aggies’ only home loss was a 1-point setback versus Boise State.
Potential spots for 2026: The Aggies’ season starts with a home tilt versus Idaho State this week, and there are five other spots in which USU looks to build on this emerging trend.

VANDERBILT
* VANDERBILT is 7-1 ATS (87.5%) for +5.9 units coming off an outright loss over the last two seasons
* VANDERBILT is 10-4 ATS (71.4%) for +5.6 units at HOME over the last two seasons after 7-24 ATS the prior five seasons
Steve’s thoughts: After getting to bowl games in each of the last two seasons, and reaching 10 wins a year ago, the 2026 campaign is a huge one for Vanderbilt and head coach Clark Lea as the Commodores move on from QB Diego Pavia. Will they go back to the days when most of their negative trends were built, or will they continue the winning ways and build on these new tendencies?
Potential spots for 2026: Vanderbilt starts at home on Saturday with a near-automatic win against Austin Peay. The big one to circle is Ole Miss on 10/10, as in that one, both of the trends figure to converge.

VIRGINIA TECH    
* VIRGINIA TECH is 7-23 ATS (23.3%) for -18.3 units vs. NON-CONFERENCE foes since 2019
Steve’s thoughts: New head coach James Franklin has had nothing but good things to say since arriving in Blacksburg, and the Virginia Tech community is amped up for the 2026 season. One of the first steps to getting things back in order quickly for the Hokies will be to turn around this miserable trend versus non-ACC foes lately.
Potential spots for 2026: Three non-conference games in the first three weeks, home vs. VMI and Old Dominion, and then at Maryland. There is a good chance we’ll know the impact of the massive coaching hire in just a few weeks’ time.

WAKE FOREST
* WAKE FOREST was 5-2 ATS (71.4%) for +2.8 units at HOME last season after 2-10 ATS the prior two seasons
Steve’s thoughts: Head coach Jake Dickert immediately restored some pride in Wake Forest football last season by leading the Demon Deacons to one of the bigger turnaround seasons of any team across the country. They went from 4-8 to 9-4, including 5-2 ATS at home.
Potential spots for 2026: Assuming Dickert’s second season will have the same tendencies as the first, there are six home games to watch for, including this week against Akron.

WASHINGTON  
* WASHINGTON is 11-22 ATS (33.3%) for -13.2 units as an UNDERDOG since 2015
Steve’s thoughts: Moving to the Big Ten has not helped Washington’s struggles in the role of underdog, and in fact, it may have exacerbated the problem. The Huskies are 1-8 ATS over the last two seasons in this role and don’t figure to climb up the conference ranks till something changes.
Potential spots for 2026: I have Washington slotted to be an underdog in three games this season, first at USC on 10/3, and then in the final two games of the season, 11/21 vs. Indiana, and 11/28 at Oregon.

WASHINGTON STATE    
* WASHINGTON STATE is 42-24 ATS (63.6%) for +15.6 units at HOME since 2015
Steve’s thoughts: For as much as Washington State seems to be going through coaches like water, and instability seems to overtake this program every offseason, there’s no disputing how much the Cougars continue to accomplish, particularly at home, where Pullman remains a difficult place to visit.
Potential spots for 2026: There are six home games scheduled for Washington State in 2026, including three straight in Weeks 3-5. Those are against Duquesne, Arizona, and Fresno State.

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