Hopeful 2026
There may not be a more appropriate name for a race than the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga, which serves as the first G1 race for 2-year-olds hoping to find themselves in the Triple Crown chase next year. This year’s Hopeful features eight horses and eight different trainers, as some of the sport’s top conditioners will be focused on the Del Mar Futurity and Debutante for juveniles or the massive cashes up for grabs on the turf at Kentucky Downs, but others are on hand at The Spa once again.
Obviously we don’t have a lot of data points for the 2-year-olds, as many are just scratching the surface of what will hopefully be long and prosperous careers. Ted Noffey (2025) and Forte (2022) won this race and went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, while Jackie’s Warrior (2020) went on to be an extremely successful sprinter. Forte’s win in this race was actually removed due to a positive test for meloxicam, but he did go on to win the BC Juvenile.
The last horse to win this race and win a Triple Crown race the next year is Afleet Alex, who won the Preakness and Belmont back in 2005. Affirmed (1977) is the last one to go on to win the Kentucky Derby. So, while we may hear more down the line about the winner of this race, it is hardly a guarantee of extreme success as a 3-year-old.
This is Race 10 on the Sunday Saratoga card with a post time set for 5:19 p.m. ET.
Here are the Hopeful Stakes post positions, horses, jockeys, trainers, and odds.
| Post | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Odds |
| 1 | The Good Life | M. Franco | B. Cox | 7/2 |
| 2 | High Official | J. Castellano | T. Pletcher | 8-1 |
| 3 | Booked | R. Santana Jr. | S. Asmussen | 3-1 |
| 4 | Flight Command | J. Velazquez | R. Rodriguez | 10-1 |
| 5 | Midnight Still | J. Alvarado | J. LaRose | 9/2 |
| 6 | Constant Force | D. Davis | J. Avila | 15-1 |
| 7 | Lifesong | A. Concepcion | W. Walden | 5-1 |
| 8 | Mystrix | K. Carmouche | D. Gargan | 4-1 |
Seven Kentucky-breds and one Indiana-bred here, with the horse from the Hoosier State as the favorite. Booked for Steve Asmussen is a familiar colt to the Saratoga crowd, as he’s already had three starts on this track and four races overall.
This race features a lot of horses who have showcased raw talent, while maybe not having the cleanest trips. There are a lot of race winners in the field and the stretch to seven furlongs might be good for some of them, who have already shown great closing speed.
Two last notes before looking at the field – High Official is cross-entered in the Anticipation Stakes on the Saratoga turf after winning in July over 1 1/16 miles on that surface. We’ll see if Todd Pletcher opts to test the colt’s mettle on dirt or stick with the turf for now.
Also, Mystrix is cross-entered in a maiden special weight on Saturday, so we’ll see what Danny Gargan and the connections opt to do, though it seems likely that they’ll stick with this opportunity with a competitive morning line price and a bigger purse.
Here are some thoughts on the horses in the Hopeful Stakes field:
1. The Good Life (7/2; Franco/Cox): The son of Life Is Good and maternal grandson of Speightstown is 1-for-1, taking down his maiden on July 18 on this very course. His 81 Equibase Speed Figure and 80 Beyer from that race fit nicely in this field, as he won that by better than three lengths over six furlongs. Manny Franco assumes the mount again for Brad Cox here and his encouraging debut included a bit of bumping in the seven-horse field, which may be good prep for this eight-horse stakes debut.
2. High Official (8-1; Castellano/Pletcher): The son of Not This Time and maternal grandson of American Pharoah was excellent in the back half of the race Flavien Prat on July 26 on the Saratoga turf. Just past the halfway point, High Official sat about three lengths back of the lead, but closed strong to win by two lengths at around 3-1. This isn’t a bad time to test the colt on dirt, but we’ll have to wait and see if that’s the plan. At time of writing, High Official was the 7/5 favorite in the Anticipation Stakes on Saturday.
3. Booked (3-1; Santana/Asmussen): The son of Yaupon and Fingerprint has two seconds and two firsts in four starts, with his debut race at Churchill Downs and his maiden victory the next race at Saratoga. The hot start prompted Asmussen and the connections to give him a try in a stakes race and he ran second to Twinkle Town. A rematch would have been possible here, but Kenny McPeek decided that he didn’t like how Twinkle Town recovered after his last workout, so the potential favorite is sidelined. Perhaps that will help Booked, but he’ll need to do better than a 77 Equibase Speed Figure here for that to happen.
4. Flight Command (10-1; Velazquez/Rodriguez): Blinkers go on here for the son of Flightline and maternal grandson of Candy Ride, as John Velazquez hops aboard. Manny Franco rode Flight Command to his maiden win back on June 25 and Prat rode him to an awful sixth-place finish in the Saratoga Special Stakes, as the short shot in the race. He had trouble at the gate and then again further down the track. That trip prompted Rudy Rodriguez to add the blinkers and switch to Johnny V. Rodriguez entered midweek as just an 11% trainer this season and a 34% WPS% conditioner, the lowest mark of his career, but Flight Command’s 90 Equibase Speed Figure in his maiden is a good data point in this field.
5. Midnight Still (9/2; Alvarado/LaRose): Junior Alvarado has followed up the most lucrative season of his career with another very strong effort to this point, though he was just a 12% rider at Saratoga as of Thursday. Still, with the son of Curlin and More Moonshine by Malibu Moon, that’s the kind of bloodline likely to draw some wagering interest in this field. After finishing fifth at Churchill Downs in his maiden, Midnight Still went to Saratoga and won on July 11 with Prat in the mount. Brian Hernandez Jr. had the first ride. First-year trainer Kinnon LaRose thinks the stretch to seven furlongs will work out, as Midnight Still came from 3 ½ lengths back to win by 6 ¼ over five and a quarter furlongs last time out.
6. Constant Force (15-1; Davis/Avila): The longest shot in the field comes from the 6 post here for JC Avila, who had a winner here with the son of McKinzie on August 7. Of the eight in this field, his turnaround is the quickest, but his debut race was really encouraging. After getting knocked around at the starting gate in a 12-horse field, Constant Force was the best of the bunch, winning at around 8-1 for Manny Franco. That race was six furlongs and he was as far as 10 lengths back before winning by more than two.
7. Lifesong (5-1; Concepion/Walden): The second son of Life Is Good to grace this field is Lifesong for William Walden. The maternal grandson of Hard Spun and son of three-time winner Hard Legacy certainly has some accomplishments in the bloodline. Thus far, he has one of his own, a maiden win at Ellis Park on July 26. Obviously he’s facing a better field here, but his 83 Equibase Speed Figure and 76 Beyer rank right with the other contenders and Axel Concepcion is also getting this ride after cashing at slightly better than 5/2 in that six-furlong sprint.
8. Mystrix (4-1; Carmouche/Gargan): This feels like a bit of an ask on paper for Mystrix, the only horse in the field without a win on his name. The son of Good Magic and maternal grandson of Street Sense ran second in a 10-horse MSW came up just a head short with Luis Saez in the mount on August 8. Kendrick Carmouche gets the ride for Danny Gargan here, as recent workouts have been very solid over four furlongs at The Spa.
Hopeful Stakes Predictions
With 2-year-olds, any race could go any number of ways, but there are some colts that I have more confidence in than others. One is Midnight Still, who had rail draws in his previous two starts and now Junior Alvarado can decide how he wants to play it from the middle of the gate. The stretch to seven furlongs should help for a stalking trip while Booked runs out front.
I’m also expecting a good run for The Good Life from the inside, as Manny Franco is having a spectacular summer at Saratoga and has familiarity with the horse, a horse that didn’t seem to mind a physical race in his last effort. Constant Force also shook off some early bumping for a strong finish in his last race. The extra distance probably helps here for him as well.
Hopeful Stakes Picks
5 Midnight Still
1 The Good Life
6 Constant Force
8 Mystrix
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