Clarifying Effective Play-by-Play Ratings for College Football, NFL:
Last week, my article that included my first full run of college football data and strength ratings drew quite a response. I received several questions, particularly about the new Effective Play-by-Play Ratings, so I’ll provide some clarification as we move on to Week 5 in college football and Week 4 in the NFL. I will also share some updated data for both levels, including the games with the biggest disparities between the ratings and the actual lines, once again.
Before digging into the Effective Play-by-Play Ratings clarification, however, know that I have updated my strength ratings for college and pro football, as is my weekly routine. Typically, I upload the new ratings on Sunday for college football and both Monday and Tuesday for the NFL. You can find them here:
College Football Power Ratings and NFL Power Ratings
I was asked to clear up some confusion about the new rating set I introduced last week for college football. I received a lot of feedback about the Effective Play-by-Play Ratings before and even after the 15 games I presented went 9-6 ATS.
This is what I included in last week’s article as a description:
Effective Play-by-Play Strength
The Effective Strength Ratings I described earlier simply take into account scoring stats, but as we all know, there are a lot of things that can happen on the field that can lead to teams being inaccurately evaluated. Among them are turnovers, penalties, third- or fourth-down success, decisions made when games are out of hand, etc. Because of that, for the purposes of the rest of this article, what I am going to be determining and sharing with you are the teams whose current EFFECTIVE YARDS PER PLAY (EYYP) stats signify that they might be significantly better or worse than the current perception of them. I believe this is a good way to find over- and underrated teams to take advantage of in the next few games. I will also be using a formula for comparing the teams in this week’s games by their EYPP numbers to see if there might be any point spread value.
What I’ve done is taken the Effective Offensive/Defensive Yards Per Play figures I first ran for the 2025 season on Sunday and assigned them an equivalent power rating on the scale I currently use. I then took these EYPP Equivalent Ratings and compared them to my current Power Ratings, which are based heavily on betting markets and perception.
The assumption being made is that if the Effective Yards Per Play Equivalent Rating is higher than the average SM power rating, that team is playing better currently than its perceived strength, and vice versa.
I received many questions. So I’d like to answer some of those for all readers in case you were wondering the same thing.
Q. How are these different from your Effective Strength Ratings?
A. In short, the Effective Strength Ratings include only scoring stats. The Effective Play-by-Play Ratings use PLAYS and YARDAGE data.
Q. Do you post these Effective Play-by-Play Ratings regularly?
A. No. I have shared them occasionally throughout my years at VSiN, and I’ve shared the game disparity numbers a couple of times previously, but in my experience, they have seemed too volatile to hang my hat on. Using my Effective Strength Ratings, I can rarely come up with a game that varies 10 points off a point spread. There are commonalities, however, with the Effective Play-by-Play Ratings.
Q. Do the Effective Play-by-Play Ratings account for teams playing weaker opponents?
A. Yes, heavily. Not only do these ratings utilize schedule strength differences, like my Effective Strength Ratings, they go a step further than most common strength indicators in that they also utilize past opponents’ yardage gained and allowed averages.
Q. Are you going to post the Effective Play-by-Play biggest variation games every week, and will you have it for college and pro?
A. Most of the enthusiastic response I have gotten from readers stemmed from the fact that the top 15 variation games went 9-6 ATS, including highlight blowout wins from Indiana, UCF, Florida State and Duke, and key upset victories from the likes of Kennesaw State. I promised one reader that I would continue to do it as long as it was successful. You will find the top 15 college football disparity games as well as the top six NFL games at the conclusion of this article.
Q. Can I see the Effective Play-by-Play Ratings for all the teams?
A. Not yet. I’d like to see this develop a little further and track it more before I start adding these numbers to my weekly strength ratings update on VSiN.com. That said, I will share with you a Top 25 in college football as well as all of the current NFL ratings that I ran fully for the first time on Tuesday morning after three games. Here they are:
College Football Top 25 teams in Effective Play-by-Play Strength
(on an equivalent scale as my power ratings)
Rank. Team: Effective Play-by-Play Rating
1. USC: 78.8
2. OLD DOMINION: 72.8
3. OREGON: 72.2
4. OHIO STATE: 70.4
5. GEORGIA TECH: 70.2
6. FLORIDA STATE: 70.1
7. NOTRE DAME: 69.6
8. ALABAMA: 69.2
9. MICHIGAN: 68.8
10. CINCINNATI: 66.3
11. OLE MISS: 65.5
12. INDIANA: 65.3
13. TEXAS A&M: 65
14. VANDERBILT: 64.3
15. ARKANSAS: 64.2
16. OKLAHOMA: 63.9
17. TEXAS TECH: 63.4
18. TEXAS: 62.4
19. WASHINGTON: 61.6
20. TENNESSEE: 60.6
21. BYU: 60.3
22. MIAMI FL: 60.1
23. MISSOURI: 59.6
24. NORTH DAKOTA STATE: 59.6
25. SOUTH FLORIDA: 59.2
When I said I felt these ratings could be “volatile,” you can clearly get the picture from this list. If I start publishing data regularly that claims a team like Old Dominion is the second-best team in the country, I’d probably lose a lot of credibility and readers would be scoring me when they lose. As it stands, I would still argue that ODU is better than perception right now.
All NFL Teams Ranked in Effective Play-by-Play Strength
(on an equivalent scale as my power ratings)
Rank. Team: Effective Play-by-Play Rating
1. GREEN BAY PACKERS: 38
2. LA RAMS: 37.2
3. BALTIMORE RAVENS: 33.8
4. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: 32.6
5. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: 32.4
6. LA CHARGERS: 31
7. DETROIT LIONS: 30.9
8. MINNESOTA VIKINGS: 30.5
9. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: 30.5
10. CLEVELAND BROWNS: 30
11. ATLANTA FALCONS: 29.5
12. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS: 27.7
13. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: 27.3
14. HOUSTON TEXANS: 26.7
15. BUFFALO BILLS: 26
16. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: 25.5
17. DENVER BRONCOS: 24.5
18. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: 23.3
19. NEW YORK GIANTS: 23.1
20. NEW YORK JETS: 21.8
21. MIAMI DOLPHINS: 21.1
22. ARIZONA CARDINALS: 20.2
23. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: 19.6
24. DALLAS COWBOYS: 17.7
25. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: 17.5
26. CHICAGO BEARS: 16.9
27. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: 16.9
28. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: 15.6
29. CAROLINA PANTHERS: 13.7
30. CINCINNATI BENGALS: 12.5
31. PITTSBURGH STEELERS: 11.1
32. TENNESSEE TITANS: 6.7
As a Packers fan (and owner … haha), am I ashamed of my data showing my team as the best in the league in terms of play-by-play strength? Well, Green Bay just lost to Cleveland, so there’s that. There are some revealing numbers here, however. Buffalo No. 15? Philadelphia No. 25? We’ll see how these things play out in Week 4. As for my own experience betting the NFL, I’m more of a situational player who relies on systems more than strength ratings. I believe those behind the counter have very well-developed team strength data for determining what lines should be and rarely are there big misses.
Q. Are you going to post the biggest discrepancy games from the Effective Play-by-Play Ratings to the actual lines again this week?
A. YES! Hopefully we see the same success level and more this week, as I will be adding the top six games for the NFL to the top 15 college list. Those games are just below:
Comparing the EYPP equivalent ratings to the actual Week 5 college football lines:
For actionable items, here are the top 15 games for this weekend, based on the differential of Effective Play-by-Play ratings versus actual point spreads, with home-field advantage factored into the differences.
1. (181) USC at (182) ILLINOIS
Actual Line: ILLINOIS +6.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ILLINOIS +39.1
Difference: 32.6, Favors — USC
2. (119) LIBERTY at (120) OLD DOMINION
Actual Line: OLD DOMINION -16.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OLD DOMINION -45.1
Difference: 28.6, Favors — OLD DOMINION
3. (197) ALABAMA at (198) GEORGIA
Actual Line: GEORGIA -3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: GEORGIA +21.3
Difference: 24.3, Favors — ALABAMA
4. (195) OREGON at (196) PENN STATE
Actual Line: PENN STATE -3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: PENN STATE +20.2
Difference: 23.7, Favors — OREGON
5. (159) CINCINNATI at (160) KANSAS
Actual Line: KANSAS -4.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: KANSAS +14.6
Difference: 19.1, Favors — CINCINNATI
6. (145) RUTGERS at (146) MINNESOTA
Actual Line: MINNESOTA -4.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MINNESOTA -20.6
Difference: 16.1, Favors — MINNESOTA
7. (149) HAWAII at (150) AIR FORCE
Actual Line: AIR FORCE -6.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: AIR FORCE +8.7
Difference: 15.2, Favors — HAWAII
8. (113) GA SOUTHERN at (114) JAMES MADISON
Actual Line: JAMES MADISON -17.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: JAMES MADISON -32.4
Difference: 14.9, Favors — JAMES MADISON
9. (117) UTAH at (118) WEST VIRGINIA
Actual Line: WEST VIRGINIA +12.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: WEST VIRGINIA -1.5
Difference: 14, Favors — UTAH
10. (133) INDIANA at (134) IOWA
Actual Line: IOWA +7.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: IOWA +21.4
Difference: 13.9, Favors — INDIANA
11. (161) ARIZONA at (162) IOWA STATE
Actual Line: IOWA STATE -6.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: IOWA STATE +7.3
Difference: 13.8, Favors — ARIZONA
12. (175) LSU at (176) OLE MISS
Actual Line: OLE MISS -1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OLE MISS -15.1
Difference: 13.6, Favors — OLE MISS
13. (131) VIRGINIA TECH at (132) NC STATE
Actual Line: NC STATE -10.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NC STATE -23.9
Difference: 13.4, Favors — NC STATE
14. (105) FLORIDA STATE at (106) VIRGINIA
Actual Line: VIRGINIA +7
Effective Play-by-Play Line: VIRGINIA +19.4
Difference: 12.4, Favors — FLORIDA STATE
15. (183) ARKANSAS STATE at (184) LOUISIANA-MONROE
Actual Line: LOUISIANA-MONROE -2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: LOUISIANA-MONROE -14.9
Difference: 12.4, Favors — LOUISIANA-MONROE
Comparing the Effective Play-by-Play equivalent ratings to the actual Week 4 NFL lines:
For actionable items, here are the top six games for this weekend’s games, based on the differential of Effective Play-by-Play ratings versus actual point spreads, with home-field advantage built into the differences.
1. (251) MINNESOTA VIKINGS vs. (252) PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Actual Line: PITTSBURGH STEELERS +2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: PITTSBURGH STEELERS +19.4
Difference: 16.9, Favors — MINNESOTA VIKINGS
2. (263) TENNESSEE TITANS at (264) HOUSTON TEXANS
Actual Line: HOUSTON TEXANS -7
Effective Play-by-Play Line: HOUSTON TEXANS -22.4
Difference: 15.4, Favors — HOUSTON TEXANS
3. (275) GREEN BAY PACKERS at (276) DALLAS COWBOYS
Actual Line: DALLAS COWBOYS +7
Effective Play-by-Play Line: DALLAS COWBOYS +18.1
Difference: 11.1, Favors — GREEN BAY PACKERS
4. (279) CINCINNATI BENGALS at (280) DENVER BRONCOS
Actual Line – DENVER BRONCOS -7
Effective Play-by-Play Line: DENVER BRONCOS -17.9
Difference: 10.9, Favors — DENVER BRONCOS
5. (253) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at (254) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Actual Line: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS +3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -7.5
Difference: 10.5, Favors — TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
6. (101) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at (102) ARIZONA CARDINALS
Actual Line: ARIZONA CARDINALS +1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ARIZONA CARDINALS +9.4
Difference: 7.9, Favors — SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
