College Football Bowl Game and CFP Quarterfinals Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
It’s been a pretty good start to the bowl season for me, as after going 9-5 ATS on best bets in the first group of games, I added 14-9-1 ATS in the next set, with games included through Monday, 12/29. Thus, I am 23-14-1 ATS (62.2%) on bowl game best bets and 164-166-1 ATS for the season. I am also 33-24-1 ATS (57.9%) on all of the picks I made on every bowl game side/total in the VSiN CFP Betting Guide from earlier this month. I am here now to wrap up the bowl/CFP quarterfinal games, again offering up at least one selection on every contest. Happy New Year, everyone. Enjoy the rest of the games!
Tuesday, December 30, 2025
Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech (-9.5, 51.5)
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl – Independence Stadium – Shreveport, Louisiana
I’m not sure any bowl teams go limping into their postseason contests more than Coastal Carolina. Not only did the Chanticleers lose their last three games while allowing 51.7 PPG, but they are also under an interim coach after firing head coach Tim Beck and figure to be down their part-time season starting QB, Samari Collier. What’s more, they only beat one bowl team this season, a 45-37 decision over 5-7 Appalachian State, who only got a bowl bid by circumstance.
Louisiana Tech didn’t exactly tear the season up, going 7-5 against the weaker CUSA field, but the Bulldogs did beat Missouri State and Liberty to end the season 7-5. They have some QB injury issues of their own, but importantly, those last two wins came with Trey Kukuk under center, and they put up 76 points in those two games. Louisiana Tech also has a regional edge in this game, with the Independence Bowl being played in Shreveport.
We know that, over the last 95 games for teams with these bowl-game regional edges, these teams’ record on my ledger is 53-41-1 ATS (56.4%) heading into this season. We also know that favorites own a 14-7 ATS edge in the last 21 Independence Bowl games, including wins in each of the last two years. With Sonny Cumbie of Louisiana Tech also having a two-game bowl coaching experience edge, it gives me enough reason to back the Bulldogs here.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Louisiana Tech -9.5 in the Independence Bowl
Tennessee (-2.5, 61.5) vs. Illinois
Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl – Nissan Stadium – Nashville, Tennessee
For as much as Illinois won eight games this season and surpassed its season win total of 7.5, this was still a somewhat disappointing season for the Illini. After going 10-3 last year, including a Citrus Bowl win, and bringing back 19 starters from that team for 2025, I personally felt this could be a season in which this program took another step forward. Instead, they had just one real memorable win, by 2 over USC at home, went 3-3 SU and 2-3-1 ATS down the stretch, and otherwise underperformed my own expectations. For them to put on an elite performance here against a more talented Tennessee team would be a surprise. Especially with the Music City Bowl being played in Nashville, Tennessee.
The Volunteers have done some of their best work out of the SEC of late, going 18-6 (75%) ATS in non-Conference games since 2021. From the sounds of it, QB Joey Aguilar and several other top Tennessee players will play here, so disinterest shouldn’t be an issue for head coach Josh Heupel’s team. Their resume wasn’t spectacular this season either, but they are the more capable team offensively, and last time they played in this game, the Vols put up 45 points. It should be an entertaining and more offense-oriented contest. Plus, with outright winners on a 23-2-1 ATS run in the previous 26 Music City Bowl games, the point spread shouldn’t be an issue.
College Football Best Bet: Tennessee (-2.5) and/or Over 61.5 in the Music City Bowl
USC (-6.5, 55.5) vs. TCU
Valero Alamo Bowl – Alamodome – San Antonio
In my opinion, QB Josh Hoover of TCU didn’t live up to lofty expectations this season, barely eclipsing the numbers he put up last year for the Horned Frogs when the team went 9-4. In other words, the 8-4 record this season, with 14 starters back, has to be looked at as a disappointment. Even more so, Hoover has elected to enter the transfer portal and won’t play in this contest, leaving the snaps for presumably Ken Seals. If that name rings a bell, it’s because he was the starter at Vanderbilt before Diego Pavia arrived on the scene and was once considered the future at the position for the Commodores.
Can Seals lead an offense that sort of struggled down the stretch to enough success to keep his team in the game against an opponent that, at one point earlier in the season, was the nation’s top scoring unit? That’s a big question, and if anything, the Trojans should be bolstered by the fact that QB Jayden Maiava has elected to come back to USC next year and thus will play in this Alamo Bowl game.
USC is looking for a third straight bowl win under head coach Lincoln Riley, and in his three bowl games with the program, his team has scored 45, 42, and 35 points. The Horned Frogs are going to have to score to stay in this game. With Seals taking over, and the offense having scored 23 or less in four of the last five contests, I have a hard time seeing them stay in this one long enough to make a game of it.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll back USC -6.5 at the Alamo Bowl
Wednesday, December 31, 2025
Iowa vs. Vanderbilt (-4.5, 47.5)
ReliaQuest Bowl – Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, Florida
Vanderbilt’s program has grown by leaps and bounds over the last two seasons, and so much of it has been due to the addition of QB Diego Pavia prior to the 2024 season. This year, the Commodores were in the playoff discussion after going 10-2, losing to just Texas and Alabama. Now they find themselves as just 4.5-point favorites against an Iowa team that was its usual self in 2025, 8-4 and nothing special. Head coach Clark Lea of Vandy offered no excuses or anger for missing out on the playoffs, only acknowledging that they could have done more.
I think they will do much more as an underpriced favorite in the ReliaQuest Bowl, and to me, it feels like bettors are concentrating too much on the negative publicity surrounding Pavia’s comments and behavior in New York for the Heisman Trophy ceremony. From the sounds of it, the Commodores love him, they support him, and I would fully expect them to finish the job here. If you’ve followed any of the recent Iowa bowl games, don’t confuse yourself with the thought that the Hawkeyes are some sort of pesky underdog in bowl contests. In fact, it’s quite the opposite. They are 3-6-1 ATS as a bowl game dog since 2011, and favorites actually own an impressive 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS mark in their most recent 12 bowl games.
College Football Best Bet: It’s Vanderbilt -4.5 for me in the ReliaQuest Bowl
Arizona State vs. Duke (-3, 49.5)
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl – Sun Bowl Stadium – El Paso, Texas
With so much news every year in the bowl season centering around who is going where, which players are transferring or opting out, etc, it’s very refreshing to see situations where certain key players or coaches do the opposite and decide to stay where they are. Well, Arizona State’s future prospects got a big boost when head coach Kenny Dillingham decided to re-up his contract with the program. He has been an incredible ambassador (and coach) for ASU while there, so recruiting should only pick up.
A great example of the stability he brought to the Sun Devils is how the team responded when star QB Sam Leavitt went down earlier in the season. When it seemed all hope was lost for the season, backup QB Jeff Sims stepped in and led them to wins over Iowa State, West Virginia, and Colorado before the season-ending loss to Arizona. That said, Sims has gotten an extra month of practice here as the starter and figures to have his team in position to be a very live underdog against 8-5 ACC “champ” Duke.
As it is, underdogs are on an extended run of 21-7-1 ATS in the Sun Bowl series since 1995, and Arizona State is 30-17-1 (63.8%) ATS as an underdog since 2018. The other thing to love about ASU here is that they have been the better defensive team all season long, holding teams to 23 PPG overall and holding 11 of 12 opponents to 24 or less. In contrast, Duke allowed nine opponents to hit the 25+ point mark this season.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Arizona State +3 in the Sun Bowl
Michigan vs. Texas (-8.5, 48.5)
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl – Camping World Stadium – Orlando, Florida
At last check, it sounded as if up to 25 Michigan players would be missing the Citrus Bowl game, which is unfortunate, since the matchup with Texas, at least on paper, was one of the bowl games most fans were probably looking forward to. Obviously, things have been a mess in the Michigan program since the regular season ended. While some recent seasons have also ended with a lot of internal question marks, this one is exacerbated by the fact that they don’t have a season-ending win over Ohio State to help motivate them to keep prepping for a tough bowl game.
I think that is going to be the difference here. I don’t think the Longhorns are going to feel sorry for them. As we look at the point spread for the contest, -8.5 in favor of Texas, we have to ask whether or not the Longhorns can separate on a talented Michigan defense. I have three points on why they can.
First, the Michigan defense wavered down the stretch, giving up 20+ points in its final three games, two against Maryland and Northwestern. Second, the Texas offense was finding its footing in the second half of the season after enduring some growing pains with QB Arch Manning early. In the first six games, they hit the 27-point mark just three times. In the final five games, they did it four times while averaging 33.6. Georgia was the only team to slow them late. And third, with all the opt-outs, transfers and injuries, the Michigan defense figures to be a shell of itself here. Let’s not overlook the fact that outright winners are on a 24-0 ATS run in Citrus Bowl games since 2002 and Big Ten teams are just 3-10 SU and ATS in their last 13 Citrus Bowl appearances. Despite heavy money and bets backing at DK, I still like Texas here as they make a statement to lead into 2026.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll back Texas -8.5 versus Michigan in the Citrus Bowl
Nebraska vs. Utah (-14, 50.5)
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl – Allegiant Stadium – Las Vegas, NV
Some teams would probably fret about covering a massive 14.5-point line in a bowl game. I don’t think Utah is one of those, as the Utes have historically been a solid bowl team under head coach Kyle Whittingham and take all comers. This year’s matchup has to be a disappointment as they face an injury-riddled, late stumbling Nebraska team that lost four of its final six games and was just 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine. The only satisfaction for Utah here will probably come in pummeling a team it is truly much better than.
Of course, the late question mark comes in whether or not they will still bring the effort as a parting gift for Whittingham, who has left for Michigan and won’t coach in this game. The Utes have lost five straight bowl games, and surely are motivated by ending that skid. That said, the last time they were a bowl favorite of this magnitude, they crushed Pitt 35-7 in the 2005 Fiesta Bowl. From an analytical standpoint, Big 12 teams as favorites of 4 points or more are on a 20-11 ATS surge in bowl games.
One other thing you have to consider here is that the line moved only slightly after the Utah coach news broke, which is very curious. To me, the bigger issues here lie with Nebraska, not only because of the late-season struggles, but because the Cornhuskers could be down to their third QB in Jaylen Gramstad, who threw five passes this season, none longer than six yards. Against a physical, cohesive team like Utah, that will be a problem.
College Football Best Bet: Count me among those not afraid to lay the 14 with Utah
Miami (FL) vs. Ohio State (-9.5, 42.5)
CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic – AT&T Stadium – Arlington, Texas
My initial reaction when I saw the line open for the Miami (FL)-Ohio State quarterfinal game was that it seemed like a lot of points to lay against a defense as capable as Miami’s. However, as I look at the game closer, I see where it came from. Miami’s offensive struggles against Texas A&M are a real concern, and the Buckeyes’ playoff experience with the playoff atmosphere figures to be a big edge.
Most of the analytics I have would seem to either back OSU or fade Miami, too. Take a look, 1) Favorites are on runs of 8-2 SU and ATS and 12-4 SU & ATS in Cotton Bowl series. 2) Outright winners are on a 22-0-1 ATS run in the L23 Cotton Bowl games. 3) Favorites are on a run of 27-9 SU and 24-12 ATS in the crucial playoff or big 6-level bowl games. 4) Big Ten teams are on an extended run of 43-12 SU and 38-16-1 ATS as a bowl game favorite of 2 points or more dating back to 2007. 5) Miami (FL) is an ugly 3-13 SU and ATS in bowl games dating back to 2005.
It feels to me like any wager here expecting the Hurricanes to stay within the number would be a force. I don’t think head coach Ryan Day’s team routs Miami, but I do think they’ll cover. Let’s say 31-17, as I believe there is too much offensive talent in this contest to have such a low total.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Ohio State -9.5 and Over 42.5 in the Cotton Bowl Quarterfinal
Thursday, January 1, 2026
Oregon (-2.5, 51.5) vs. Texas Tech
CFP Quarterfinal at the Orange Bowl Game – Hard Rock Stadium – Miami, FL
I think that for obvious reasons beyond the point spread, this CFP quarterfinal game in Miami is the hardest to call of the four. Both teams boast obvious strengths, but truthfully, after watching the Oregon defense yield over 500 yards to James Madison, there are clear signs for concern as the Ducks get ready to square off with red-hot, and criminally underrated, Texas Tech. Not many people expected the Red Raiders to be here, besides me, of course, as I quote from my CFB season win total bets I released in an article back in July: “This would be one of my top picks to crash the CFP party this year.”
That said, head coach Joey McGuire’s team has surpassed even my lofty expectations, going 12-1 overall and winning its last six games both SU and ATS. In that time, the defense allowed a total of 43 points with a victory margin of 33.7 PPG! When I say I believe they are being underrated, Texas Tech is actually set up as an underdog in this game. This feels like a similar spot to TCU of the Big 12 a few years ago, when it took down Michigan to reach the national title game.
Let’s face it, Oregon is a third-place team in its own conference. I really have a hard time believing the Big Ten is ready to send three teams to the semifinals. The Red Raiders were an underdog just once this season, and routed Utah 34-10. They also boast two blowout wins over BYU. In comparing the resumes overall, in my mind, the edge goes to them. Yet they are the underdog. With Houston and BYU already earning solid bowl wins, this could be a nice season for the Big 12. I believe Texas Tech will get some nice motivation from being the dog here.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll back Texas Tech +2.5 versus Oregon in the Orange Bowl
Alabama vs. Indiana (-7, 47.5)
CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game – Rose Bowl – Pasadena, California
A lot of people have backed off of Indiana with the upcoming matchup versus evil empire Alabama coming up. In fact, betting action at last check was 50/50 in terms of bet volume at DraftKings. In truth, this is a battle of the 2025 Indiana Hoosiers versus the 2025 Alabama Crimson Tide, not legacy versions of the programs.
Head coach Kalen DeBoer’s team has had its question marks all season long, from the opening loss at Florida State to the 17-0 deficit in the most recent game at Oklahoma. Indiana has had no such questions, only a couple of close games over high-quality teams to contend with. I actually expected a line in excess of 7 points since my power ratings and bettors ratings both suggest it should be closer to -8.5.
Furthermore, my Effective Play-by-play Ratings showed the Hoosiers to be a 13-point better team before the Tide’s win at OU. The fact that head coach Curt Cignetti’s team is favored is not lost on me either in that favorites are on a 15-3 SU and 12-6 ATS run in the last 18 years of Rose Bowl games. Favorites are also on a run of 27-9 SU and 24-12 ATS in the crucial playoff or big 6-level bowl games. SEC teams have also lost their last three bowl games when playing as 7-point dogs or more, outscored by a 114-40 count. I’m not expecting a rout, but looking at this game from a here-and-now standpoint, Indiana has to be the play.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll back Indiana -7 in the Rose Bowl game versus Alabama
Ole Miss vs. Georgia (-6.5, 55.5)
CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl – Caesars Superdome – New Orleans
If you ask me, it was the 43-35 decision in Athens earlier between these teams that really woke up the Georgia defense. In fact, after completely shutting down the Rebels in the fourth quarter of that game, the Bulldogs went on to allow just 11.7 PPG. Now, Ole Miss gets a chance for some payback, minus head coach Lane Kiffin, of course. Unfortunately, Ole Miss is 16-21 SU and 13-22 ATS (37.1%) in revenge mode since 2016.
This game will be among the biggest bowl game mismatches in terms of head coaching experience of the entire season, with Ole Miss head coach Pete Golding coaching his second game, and Kirby Smart his 14th. We know that heading into 2025, in bowl games since 2016 that have a difference of at least 10 bowl games coached between the opposing head coaches, the more experienced one is 44-27 SU and 45-25-1 ATS (64.3%). We also see that favorites are 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven of the Ole Miss-UGA SEC rivalry and favorites are on a run of 23-4 SU and 19-8 ATS in the crucial playoff or big 6-level bowl SEC games. If you’re worried that perhaps laying 6.5 points might be too many, consider that outright winners are 24-1-1 ATS since 2000 in the Sugar Bowl. Georgia is better now than the first time around; I don’t believe Ole Miss is.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll side with Georgia -6.5 in the Sugar Bowl versus Ole Miss
Friday, January 2, 2026
Rice vs. Texas State (-14, 57.5)
Armed Forces Bowl – Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
You’d have to figure it would be pretty tough to find a bowl spot matching 5-7 and 6-6 teams where one is limping in and the other is red-hot, but that’s pretty much what we have here in the Armed Forces Bowl game, where Rice comes in on a 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS skid and Texas State arrives as winner of three straight games.
Perhaps most importantly, after the ugly loss at Louisiana made it four straight games allowing 40+ points, the TSU defense steadied down the stretch, allowing 18 PPG in its final three. As it is, the Rice option offense leaves something to be desired, and for the season, it scored 5.6 PPG fewer than its opponents allowed on average. The Bobcats are 17.3 PPG better in that regard, making this the second biggest mismatch of the bowl season in offensive potency.
However, I wouldn’t put too much stock in the Rice defense being bad, since its last two games allowing over 50 points each came against South Florida and North Texas, two of the premier offenses in the country. Texas State is a big favorite for a reason, but I don’t think this game explodes in points because of Rice’s offense. Let’s not forget that teams with regional edges in bowl games were 53-41-1 ATS (56.4%) in bowl games heading into 2025.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Texas State -14 and/or UNDER 57.5 in the Armed Forces Bowl
Navy (-7, 54.5) vs. Cincinnati
AutoZone Liberty Bowl – Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium – Memphis, Tennessee
When the line for the Liberty Bowl first came out, oddsmakers placed Cincinnati as a 2.5-point favorite. At that point, it seemed to me as if Navy would be an obvious bet, as the Midshipmen always seem to value their bowl opportunities above the level their opponents do. They are very similar to Army in that regard, and we saw what Army did to UConn at Fenway.
Well, of course, since opening, the line has moved dramatically as Cincy stud QB Brendan Sorsby, among many others, has decided to transfer out. In fact, as many as eight different starting Bearcats players will be out for this one. As it is, Big 12 teams have typically not gotten up for bowl games like this, as they are just 5-10 SU and 4-11 ATS in the last 15 bowl games against non-power conference or Independent foes.
Cincinnati itself has been a bad bowl team, and is on a 7-11 SU and 5-13 ATS bowl skid dating back to 2000. Quite the opposite for Navy, who boasts a 6-1 SU and 6-0-1 ATS record in bowl games since 2013. Getting back to the line movement here, heading into 2025, in bowl games between 1992-2025 that had closing lines more than four points off of their opening line, the team that the line moved towards is 45-33-1 ATS (57.7%). I tend to put more stock in these things when disciplined teams like Navy are involved, too. It’s pretty tough to see Cincy getting a lot going here, since it failed to eclipse the 24-point mark in any of its final four games with Sorsby.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll get behind Navy -7 and/or Under 54.5 in the Liberty Bowl
Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State (-3, 53.5)
Duke’s Mayo Bowl – Bank of America Stadium – Charlotte, North Carolina
At the outset of the season, I had Mississippi State on my list of potential surprise teams for 2025, and while I won a season win total Over wager with the Bulldogs, to me, they were still a disappointment. After a 4-0 start, they went just 1-7 in the rest and weren’t even competitive in the last three. In the Duke’s Mayo Bowl, they face an 8-4 Wake Forest team that had a quick revival this season under head coach Jake Dickert and should be thrilled to be back in a bowl game after consecutive 4-8 seasons.
What’s more, the Demon Deacons are playing in their home state and are an underdog to a 5-7 team that is only getting line respect because of the league it comes from. Typically, when these two leagues (ACC and SEC) have gotten together, underdogs have had the advantage of late, going 13-9 ATS in the last 22. Furthermore, when the ACC has been a dog in the +0 to +7 range, they are on an 18-8-2 ATS surge. The good news for this game is that the opt-out/transfer portal lists are minimal for both teams, meaning we’ll see a lot of what we’ve gotten from both all year and both played towards the Over side of things, particularly in the latter parts of the season.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll take the +3 with Wake Forest and/or the Over 53.5 in the Mayo Bowl
Arizona (-3, 51.5) vs. SMU
Trust & Will Holiday Bowl – Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, CA
Last year, SMU crashed the CFP party, getting blown out at Penn State in the first round. This year, the expectations were down a bit, and the Mustangs responded in kind by losing their first five games against the spread. However, they did play well down the stretch, ending the season on 6-2 SU and 5-2 ATS runs. Here they’ll find themselves as underdogs to an Arizona team that blew away expectations in 2025, going 9-3 against a win total of just 4.5.
That didn’t surprise me because the Wildcats were one of my favorite Over bets on their season win total as I cited: “With 16 starters back for 2025, and wiping the slate clean from terrible turnover luck in 2024, this team is already on better footing. I expect them back in a bowl game in December.” Well, here they are, in the last pre-scheduled bowl game of the season.
That said, I don’t like the fact that they are favored here, since underdogs are 7-4 SU and 10-1 ATS in the last 11 installments of the Holiday Bowl series, and since the end of the 1997 season, Big 12 teams are a brutal 18-24 SU and 15-27 ATS as a small favorite of -3.5 or less in bowl games. The opt-out/transfer list for this game is not extensive, and in fact, SMU QB Kevin Jennings, although in the portal, is expected to play. I think the bigger issue for handicapping here is that both defenses played their best ball down the stretch, with Arizona holding its final five opponents to 24 points or fewer, and SMU holding seven of its L8 to that mark or less. I expect a tight, gritty game here. Let’s call it 24-20 SMU.
College Football Best Bet: Give me SMU +3 and/or Under 51.5 in the Holiday Bowl
For more college football early bowl game best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Bowl Game hub, exclusively on VSiN.
