CFP Semifinals Best Bets from Steve Makinen:
VSiN Director of Analytics Steve Makinen put together his College Football Playoff Analytics Report for the semifinal games. Using those stats and trends and more, here are his CFP Semifinals Best Bets.
Thursday, January 8, 2026
Miami (-3.5, 52.5) vs. Ole Miss
VRBO Fiesta Bowl — State Farm Stadium — Glendale, Arizona
My Best Bets in both of these semifinal games are going to come down to strength ratings, as I believe both favorites are a bit overpriced, and as such, some degree of motivation is being given to the underdogs. In the Fiesta Bowl, Miami may or may not have earned the right to be a favorite, as the Hurricanes’ two playoff wins have come against offenses that were woefully unprepared. Now, yes, I know some of this has to be credited to the Miami defense, which is very good. However, Georgia’s defense was also very good, and Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss shredded it. I actually would say the Rebels’ offense is the most dynamic remaining in the CFP. Of course, it’s said that a good defense will beat a good offense in most cases. I would counter that the Ole Miss defense is also good and perhaps underrated. Two of the three games in which it allowed more than 24 points were against Georgia, a team that is very good up front.
Miami is not as good up front and, to be frank, QB Carson Beck has not been great in the playoffs, throwing for just 5.3 yards per attempt. Miami will not be able to be this conservative against Ole Miss, though I still think it will try. My Power Ratings show that the number should be Miami -2.0, while the real line is -3.5. My Effective Strength Ratings also show Miami -3.4, again not good enough. I think this game has a chance to go down to the wire, and I am very concerned about the Hurricanes flipping from dog twice in the playoffs to favorite. As it is, they are on a horrendous stretch of 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS as a bowl/playoff game favorite since 2005. This is also an ACC-favored-over-SEC spot. We know how bad the ACC was overall this season. That’s a lot of pressure being put on Miami. Let’s go 27-24 Ole Miss, which also has a nice kicker advantage.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll back Ole Miss +3.5 with a slight lean Under 52.5 in the Fiesta Bowl
Friday, January 9, 2026
Oregon vs. Indiana (-3.5, 46.5)
Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl — Mercedes-Benz Stadium — Atlanta
One of the most intriguing things I have come across for this matchup is that, according to the numbers on the DraftKings betting splits page, 82% of the handle and 78% of the bets are in on the Hoosiers. Yet the consensus line for the game has dropped from IU -4 to IU -3.5, almost as if they are encouraging more money to come in Indiana. This makes me think twice. Although the stakes probably haven’t been as high, historically, underdogs tend to fare very well in the Peach Bowl, going 22-9-1 ATS.
Perhaps the most important thing to look at when you analyze the prospects for this semifinal game is how the teams matched up the first time around. In that game, Indiana won 30-20 at Oregon, playing as a seven-point underdog. If we are to believe that line was accurate, that would mean Oregon would have been about a 3.5-point favorite at that time on a neutral field. This neutral-field game shows the exact opposite. With that earlier game turning on two QB Dante Moore interceptions, I don’t think that much has changed in terms of where the teams stand now and where they did then.
My power rating line shows IU -1.3, with my Bettors Ratings line being IU -0.9. Also, you might recall that in the VSiN CFP Betting Guide, the team that had the best Effective Play-by-Play Rating in the country was Oregon. That certainly hasn’t diminished after 17- and 23-point wins. I think points will be hard to come by in this one, too. And because teams coming off a win over a ranked team and playing another ranked team are 83-38 Under the total (68.6%) in these games dating to September of 2021, I think an Under play also makes sense. Let’s say Indiana 23-21.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go with Oregon +3.5 in the Peach Bowl with a lean on Under 46.5, too
For more college football early bowl game best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Bowl Game hub, exclusively on VSiN.
