College Football Bowl Game Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
After a solid championship week with my college football best bets, I have opened up the bowl season in great fashion, going 9-5 ATS this past week. This comes despite losing with both Tulane and Oregon to wrap up the CFP first round. That mark has my overall season record up to 150-157 ATS as I chase down .500 mediocrity. It’s been a challenge to get back to that mark after my stability system failed me this season for the first time in 13 years. In any case, continuing with my promise to offer up at least one side and/or total for every bowl game, here are my bowl game best bets part 2, covering the games from Monday 12/22-Monday 12/29. I’ll be back after the Christmas holiday with rest. Enjoy the games and best wishes for a wonderful Christmas!
Monday, December 22, 2025
Washington State vs. Utah State (-1.5, 49.5)
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl – Albertsons Stadium – Boise, Idaho
For the second straight season, Washington State concludes its season in disarray, this time with head coach Jimmy Rogers moving on after just one season with the program. Last year, the Cougars faced a similar situation and actually put up a competitive bowl performance against Syracuse, losing 52-36 as 19-point dogs. They only got to that level of underdog after the line moved some 13+ points following news about program departures.
Now, while it seems that the chaos in 2025 isn’t nearly as bad, the line also hasn’t moved much to aid WaSU. In fact, they are just 1.5-point underdogs (down from +3) at press time against a Utah State team that does seem unified and looking to build on a favorable first season under head coach Bronco Mendenhall. Besides being a bad bowl program (1-6 SU and ATS in the last seven) and sporting an interim coach for a second straight year, Washington State was wildly inconsistent overall. USU, meanwhile, was one of the most motivated teams all season long, going 10-2 ATS. I’ll give the Aggies the benefit of the doubt here and think we’ll also see some points in this one, as Over the total is 14-4 in the last 18 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl games.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Utah State -1.5 and/or Over 49.5 in the Potato Bowl
Tuesday, December 23, 2025
Toledo vs. Louisville (-6.5, 44.5)
Boca Raton Bowl – Flagler Credit Union Stadium – Boca Raton, Florida
Historically, the Boca Raton Bowl has produced blowout games, with only one of the previous 11 installments decided by single-digit margins. With MAC rep Toledo bringing in an interim coach and taking on a Power 5 program, the trend is likely to continue. Who typically wins these blowouts? Well, for one, the designated home team is on an 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS streak in the Boca Raton Bowl series. That trend favors Louisville.
Of course, with Robert Weiner coaching his first bowl game for the Rockets, against Jeff Brohm, who has coached in eight previously, this system will be in play. First-time bowl game head coaches have really struggled over the last eight seasons, going 46-64 SU and 45-63-1 ATS (41.7%) vs. non-first-year coaches! To make matters worse, the MAC team has some opt-outs and transfer portal defections. That makes matters much worse for a G5 team against an ACC club. Even still, you can get the Cardinals at less than a TD (-6.5). It makes sense to me to back Louisville. Also, Brohm has gone Over the total in all eight prior bowl games, with those producing 80.1 PPG on average. Hard to fade that on such a low number.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go Louisville -6.5 and Over 44.5 in the Boca Raton Bowl
Western Kentucky (-2.5, 57.5) vs. Southern Miss
New Orleans Bowl – Caesars Superdome – New Orleans
With all due respect to James Madison and its run to the CFP this season, typically, the New Orleans Bowl is one of the coveted postseason destinations for Sun Belt teams. Southern Miss, despite losing its last three games outright and the last four ATS, and losing its first-year coach to another program, gets that opportunity.
What’s more, three different strong bowl systems actually back the Golden Eagles, as I released in my Motivational Factors piece. First, teams that won 0-3 games (25% or less) the prior season and qualified for a bowl game the next are 44-17-2 ATS (72.1%) over the last 10 bowl seasons when matched against a team not in that situation. USM was 1-11 last year. Second, teams that are 25%+ worse against the spread on the season are 51-33 ATS (60.7%) over the last 12 seasons in bowl games. WKU was 9-3 ATS, USM was 5-6-1 ATS. And third, the Golden Eagles are quite fortunate to have an interim coach in Blake Anderson, who has coached nine bowl games prior, thus giving him the experience edge over Tyson Helton.
Since 2015, or the last 10 bowl seasons, head coaches with an experience advantage in terms of number of bowl games coached over the opponent have gone 203-156 SU & 201-155-4 ATS (56.5%)! However, they were just 2-5 ATS in ’24-25. On the total, it’s always hard to bet the Hilltoppers under any number, and New Orleans Bowl games are 16-4 Over the total since 2005.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll take Southern Miss +2.5 and Over 57.5 in the New Orleans Bowl
UNLV (-6.5, 65.5) vs. Ohio U
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl – Ford Center at The Star – Frisco, Texas
UNLV’s reward for what has been significant back-to-back seasons is a Frisco Bowl matchup with a team out of the MAC that wasn’t even in its league title game. Oh, and by the way, Ohio is also dealing with a head coach being relieved of his duties for some indiscretions.
Meanwhile, head coach Dan Mullen didn’t come to Las Vegas to mess around at the $2 tables. He is a former high-roller from the SEC looking to get the Runnin’ Rebels on the big stage. You have to think he, along with his highly rated incoming class this year, has to be taken aback by being just a 4.5-point favorite in this matchup. The only confounding issue for me would be Ohio’s recent bowl performance, which has seen the Bobcats win six straight games. The coaching mess is a lot to deal with for a MAC program, though, and I believe UNLV will be happy to take advantage.
All that said, with the total having climbed to 65.5, I might take a bigger interest in the Under, too. Both defenses were solid down the stretch, with the Runnin’ Rebels allowing 20.2 PPG in their final five, and Ohio allowing 19.9 PPG in their final eight. The Bobcats also haven’t allowed more than 27 points in any of their last seven bowl contests.
College Football Best Bet: Give me UNLV -6.5 and Under 65.5 in the Frisco Bowl
Wednesday, December 24, 2025
California vs. Hawaii (-1.5, 52.5)
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl – Clarence TC Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu, HI
The Sheraton Hawaii Bowl is an intriguing matchup this season and should make for great Christmas Eve viewing with all of the storylines attached to the game. For one, Cal has an interim coach in place, none other than Nick Rolovich, who coached Hawaii from 2016-19. For two, the Golden Bears’ QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele hails from the Island, so this game and the matchup with Hawaii QB Micah Alejado will be a homecoming for him after what was a highly productive freshman year.
However, perhaps most importantly for us betting the game, the contest will be a home one for head coach Timmy Chang and the Warriors, and they have rebuilt their program to the point where home field is once again an advantage. They were 6-1 SU and ATS this season as hosts, making the visits for the opposition far less pleasant than they had become in recent years.
With an 8-4 record, I think a ninth win will be a huge deal and a focus of Chang’s. As it is, home teams in bowl/playoff games are on a 23-16 SU and ATS run over the last 24 seasons heading into this year. The Warriors last played in this game in 2019 and knocked off a good BYU team by 4. I expect a similar result here and will follow the line move, which has gone from Cal -2.5 to Hawaii -1.5.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll back Hawaii -1.5 at home vs. Cal on Christmas Eve
Friday, December 26, 2025
Central Michigan vs. Northwestern (-10.5, 43.5)
Game Above Sports Bowl – Ford Field – Detroit, MI
To me, there have to be reasons of motivation for favorites to cover big lines in bowl games. Otherwise, they become dangerous potential upset victims. What would the motivation for Northwestern be in covering 10.5 points against Central Michigan in Detroit on the 26th? Try defending the honor of the Big Ten for one: historically, when threatened by the MAC, another Midwest conference, the Big Ten has responded in bowl games.
The Big Ten owns a 5-1 SU and ATS record in head-to-head bowl play, with a 4-1 SU and ATS mark specifically in this game played in Detroit. Games like this provide a tremendous opportunity for programs like CMU to get bragging rights in the region, and thus can impact recruiting. Hence, I expect Northwestern to be very focused in this contest. The Wildcats usually come to play in bowl games, going 5-1 ATS in their last six.
Plus, in recent years, MAC teams have struggled in this spot, losing all 18 times outright while going 6-12 against the spread as underdogs of 8 points or more, beaten by an average of 23.7 PPG. They have also gone 3-19 SU and 6-16 ATS vs. Power Conference opponents in bowl games since 1997. I’ll trust the conference mismatch data here and a typically focused Wildcats’ team.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll lay the 10.5 points with Northwestern in Detroit
New Mexico vs. Minnesota (-2.5, 44.5)
Rate Bowl – Chase Field – Phoenix
With all due credit to the job Jason Eck did in turning around the New Mexico program this season, there is something about the bowl season that requires some experience in getting a team ready to play, especially in this era of transfer portals and opt-outs. In many cases, what happened a month ago in regular-season games has little to do with what transpires in a bowl game.
If you read my Motivational Factors article earlier in the bowl season, you know how much I value bowl game coaching experience. Look at the systems, over the last 10 bowl seasons, head coaches with an experience advantage in terms of number of bowl games coached over the opponent have gone 203-156 SU and 201-155-4 ATS (56.5%)! These coaches were 27-16 SU and 28-14-1 ATS last season.
In addition, first-time bowl game head coaches have really struggled over the last eight seasons, going 46-64 SU 45-63-1 ATS (41.7%) vs. non-first-year coaches! Finally, it is in games that are expected to be tight that the coaching difference really stands out, as first-time bowl coaches are just 19-31 SU and 16-31-3 ATS (34%) over the last 10 seasons in games with lines in the +4.5 to -4.5 range.
This game is expected to be tight, with the Gophers favored by 2.5 points. They have always performed in bowl games for head coach PJ Fleck, going 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. In addition, favorites have swept the last seven Rate Bowl games while going 6-1 ATS. If all that weren’t enough, Big Ten teams are on an extended run of 43-12 SU and 38-16-1 ATS as a bowl game favorite of 2 points or more dating back to 2007
College Football Best Bet: It’s Minnesota -2.5 for me in the Rate Bowl
Florida International vs. Texas-San Antonio (-6.5, 59.5)
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl – Gerald J. Ford Stadium – Dallas
When I looked at the entire bowl menu for the 2025-26 season, this First Responder Bowl matchup looked to be one of the toughest to find a side on. I haven’t let up on that skepticism, and am just offering up an opinion because I promised to address every game. On one hand, favorites are a perfect 13-0 SU in the First Responders Bowl series, going 9-3-1 ATS, which favors UTSA. In addition, playing in the small underdog role of less than 7 points has not been kind to CUSA teams, with a record of 13-30 SU and 15-28 ATS since 2001. This also goes against FIU.
However, for whatever reason, I just can’t get myself to lay these points with a UTSA team that has been wildly inconsistent. The Roadrunners’ defense was ripped for 42+ points on four different occasions this season, and the offense put up 48+ points on four other occasions. Which UTSA team are we going to get on the 26th? It beats me, and when I look at the momentum with which FIU ended the season (won the last four SU and ATS), this just feels to me like a game where laying points doesn’t make sense.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go with Florida International +6.5 or Over 59.5 in Dallas
Saturday, December 27, 2025
Pittsburgh (-9.5, 57.5) vs. East Carolina
Go Bowling Military Bowl – Memorial Stadium – Annapolis, MD
East Carolina gets its second straight trip to the Military Bowl game after beating NC State a year ago. Besides the lack of motivation that comes from playing in the same bowl game in back-to-back years, the Pirates won’t be boosted by the prospects of beating an in-state rival for bragging rights. Oh, and one other thing, in case you missed it since the bowl season opened a couple of weeks ago. ECU starting QB Katin Houser has opted for the transfer portal after throwing for 3,300 yards this season and will not play. Seems kind of big, right? It makes me feel bad for people who entered early bowl-picking contests.
I liked Pitt out of the gate because of the motivational things I just mentioned, and because the Panthers had a better season than expected, going 8-4 after being picked in the middle of the pack in the ACC. That tends to galvanize teams, and I expect a big effort from them in Annapolis. Plus, the only two recent losses were at the hands of Miami and Notre Dame.
Did you see my conference bowl trends piece on this tidbit from the American Conference: In the L51 bowl games featuring a team from the AAC, favorites are 37-14 SU and 33-17-1 ATS. Second, in AAC bowl games against the Group of 5 or Independent opponents, favorites are on a 21-6 ATS surge. In other words, the team that’s supposed to win typically does win these bowl games, and often convincingly.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Pitt -9.5 vs. East Carolina in the Military Bowl
Penn State vs. Clemson (-3, 48.5)
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl – Yankee Stadium – Bronx, New York
The Big Ten has a recent history of coming to play at the Pinstripe Bowl, going 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS vs. ACC teams in the last 10 years. This, of course, would favor Penn State. Why am I so leery about backing the Nittany Lions here against Clemson? Well, for one, this was a lost season for PSU, one that featured its longtime head coach getting fired. Second, the only reason that the Nittany Lions are going to be in the Bronx on the 27th is because of late-season victories over Rutgers, Michigan State, and Nebraska, the latter two of which were missing their starting quarterbacks.
Clemson is usually a team that comes to play under head coach Dabo Swinney, and his team is looking to extend its FBS record of consecutive years with a postseason victory to 15. Both teams have a number of opt-outs, transfers, and guys declaring for the NFL draft, but one name that hasn’t come up is Tigers’ QB Cade Klubnik, who has chosen to play in this game, giving his team a huge edge at the game’s most important position. He figures to be the difference in this game.
From a trend/system standpoint, Swinney has a huge bowl game experience edge over PSU’s interim coach Terry Smith, a 20-game edge to be exact. Don’t forget, in bowl games since 2016 that have a difference of at least 10 bowl games coached between the opposing head coaches, the more experienced one is 44-27 SU and 45-25-1 ATS (64.3%). In addition, PSU is on a 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS skid as a bowl game dog.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll take Clemson -3 in the Bronx
Connecticut vs. Army (-10, 43.5)
Wasabi Fenway Bowl – Fenway Park – Boston, MA
Scouring the newswires during bowl season is always crucial, and this Fenway Bowl matchup will be nothing like you expected. Not only is head coach Jim Mora, Jr. for UConn gone for Colorado State, but since the bowl announcement, Huskies’ star QB Joe Fagnano has also elected not to play. Furthermore, at last check, it appeared that almost a dozen Huskies contributing players have entered the transfer portal.
This will not be the same UConn team that won nine games for a second straight season. That said, don’t confuse this year’s Army team with last year’s. That team was transcendent; this team is closer to what we had become accustomed to from the Knights in the prior half-decade. They are also coming off a disappointing loss to Navy. However, if there’s one team that you can always rely on to show up and play and be disciplined in their bowl game, it is the Knights. You’d have to be completely ignorant to not acknowledge that this line has moved from Army -3 to Army -10 over the last couple weeks.
Thus, I need to remind you that in bowl games between 1992-2025 that had closing lines more than four points off of their opening line, the team that the line moved towards is 45-33-1 ATS (57.7%). Army also has the far more experienced bowl game coach with Dan Monken boasting a six-game edge over UConn interim coach Sammis Gordon. We know how much that means.
College Football Best Bet: Army -10 has to be the play in the Fenway Bowl
Georgia Tech vs. BYU (-4.5, 56.5)
Pop-Tarts Bowl – Camping World Stadium – Orlando, Florida
The Pop-Tarts Bowl matchup between Georgia Tech and BYU has to rank among the top games of the season of all non-playoff tilts. Both teams had solid seasons, both played tough schedules, and both figure to go into the game close to full strength, or as close as bowl teams do nowadays. When I look at the matchup, I believe it will be a physical game, where points will be tougher to come by. The Pop-Tarts Bowl series has a history of such contests, with Under the total converting in 15 of the last 20 games of this Orlando bowl series.
Historically, Georgia Tech bowl games have swung one way too, with underdogs owning a 10-4 SU and 11-3 ATS record in the last 14 GT bowl games. I feel like the underdog line will motivate the Yellow Jackets too, as they went 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in the dog role this season and are 10-3 ATS in that spot in the three years under head coach Brent Key. Don’t get me wrong here, I believe this line is right where it should be, as my power ratings indicate BYU -4.4. However, my Effective Strength and Bettors’ Ratings show it should be closer to -1.5/-2.
College Football Best Bet: Pop Tarts Bowl has me on Georgia Tech +4.5 and/or Under 56.5
Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State (-4.5/42.5)
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl – Arizona Stadium – Tucson, Arizona
One thing I have come to count on in bowl season is that head coach Chuck Martin’s teams will show up, as he boasts a 6-0 ATS bowl game record, all with Miami (OH), of course. In this year’s Arizona Bowl matchup, he will have a six-bowl game experience edge over Fresno State’s Matt Entz, who coaches in his first bowl game.
The line is what I would consider “tight” and thus we need to consult this betting system: it is in games that are expected to be tight that the coaching difference really stands out, as first-time bowl coaches are just 19-31 SU and 16-31-3 ATS (34%) over the last 10 seasons in games with lines in the +4.5 to -4.5 range. Making matters better, it is Martin’s team that is getting the points.
Thus, we should probably at least consider the fact that outright winners are on 46-4-1 ATS surge in Mountain West bowl games. As mid-range bowl game favorites of -3.5 to -9.5 points, Mountain West teams are 7-20 ATS in the last 27. That’s not to mention that MAC teams are on a 3-1 SU and 3-0-1 ATS run in the Arizona Bowl game series. I can easily see a competitive, lower-scoring game decided with a late FG.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go with Miami (OH) +4.5 and/or Under 42.5 in Tucson
North Texas (-3, 53.5) vs. San Diego State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl – University Stadium – Albuquerque, NM
In sports, it is typically believed that a good defense will beat a good offense most of the time. We should find out in this year’s New Mexico Bowl matchup in Albuquerque between North Texas and San Diego State. That said, we won’t see the true UNT offense in this game, as QB Drew Mestemaker will not play and head coach Eric Morris has taken the job at Oklahoma State. He figures to be taking a number of transfer opt-outs with him.
At the same time, San Diego State QB Jayden Denegal also will not play due to injury. Thus, the only unit of these teams that will essentially be intact will be the SDSU defense, which allowed just 12.6 PPG overall this season and held teams 13.9 PPG below their season averages. Now, since UNT scored a nation-high 44.8 PPG this season, you might still be thinking the Mean Green could get 30 here, but we have to account for the deductions for the coaching and QB. Looking more closely at the history of this bowl series, the Mountain West might not be a good bowl conference overall, but they are 12-4 SU and ATS in their last 16 appearances in this game.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go with San Diego State +3 versus North Texas
Virginia vs. Missouri (-4, 44.5)
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl – EverBank Stadium – Jacksonville, Florida
Part of its success this season was Virginia’s ability to thrive in the underdog role. In their 10-3 season, the Cavaliers went 3-1 SU and ATS when getting points. For their bowl game, they find themselves as +4-point dogs to a Missouri team that underachieved this season, going just 3-5-1 ATS in the last nine games. This line feels like it is just a standard SEC-is-better-than-the-ACC line. The thing is, the latter is usually motivated in the dog role in the matchup, and Virginia comes off a pretty special season.
The Cavaliers also figure to have their starting QB in Chandler Morris, while Missouri’s Beau Pribulla has opted to transfer. That should be a nice edge for UVA. Historically, the ACC-SEC bowl matchups have lately favored the latter, as ACC teams are on a 9-30 SU and 11-28 ATS skid versus Big Ten and SEC opponents in bowl games dating back to 2017. However, I would like to see data on games in which one team has more opt-outs than the other. In fact, the Tigers’ head coach, Eliah Drinkwitz, recently held a press conference ranting about his roster being poached. This could be a Mizzou team in disarray. In which case, I’ll take the points with a more cohesive underdog.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Virginia +4 in the Gator Bowl
LSU vs. Houston (-3, 41.5)
Kinder’s Texas Bowl – NRG Stadium – Houston, Texas
While not officially a home game, Houston earns the right to play in a big opportunity bowl game against a downtrodden, roster-depleted team in LSU in its home city. Without getting too deep into what this means, you should know that designated home teams have won the last seven Texas Bowl games SU and ATS.
LSU is also playing in this bowl game for a second straight season after beating Baylor last year. That in itself has to be a disappointment for a program that had CFP aspirations this season, one that bottomed out with the firing of head coach Brian Kelly.
While the future might look a lot brighter with Lane Kiffin coming in, the Tigers playing in this game will be of typical LSU fashion, much different from the one we watched mostly in the regular season, as several players are in the transfer portal or opted out, including QB Garrett Nussmeier. What sort of effort should we expect from a reduced roster of a team that was 4-8 ATS this season? Probably not a lot. If you’re worried at all about laying any points here, also consider that outright winners are 22-1-1 ATS in the history of the Texas Bowl series.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll back Houston (-3) as the unofficial home team in the Texas Bowl
Monday, December 29, 2025
Georgia Southern (-7.5, 59.5) vs. Appalachian State
JLab Birmingham Bowl – Protective Stadium – Birmingham, AL
Besides the Oklahoma-Alabama matchup in the first round of the CFP, this Birmingham Bowl matchup was the only one predetermined to pit conference opponents against one another. Does it take anything away from the significance for both programs? Yes, probably. But what takes away from the game even more is the fact that Appalachian State shouldn’t even be here, as they were about the fourth or fifth option for the bowl committee after a few other schools declined the opportunity.
Does this mean the Mountaineers have “something to prove”? Does that matter when a team was 5-7, lost five of its final six games, and was essentially an afterthought to those setting the bowl matchups? I think what matters more here is that ASU is down its top two QBs, the line has shot from -3.5 to -7.5 since opener and could go higher, and GSU is hungry for a first bowl win since 2020 after three straight losses. You have to believe the game means a lot more to GSU head coach Clay Helton, too, as he looks to end bowl game losing skids of five games outright and seven games ATS. He does have a critical eight-game bowl experience edge over ASU’s Dowell Loggains, too. I’ve written on numerous occasions the importance of that.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Georgia Southern laying the 7.5 points in Birmingham
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