College Football Early Bowl Game Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
I wrapped up the regular season in college football with a 10-8 ATS championship week, choosing every side and total for the available games. The ACC title game cost me two losses to wrap up the action, but otherwise I felt pretty sharp. We now head into the bowl season, and I sport a 141-152 ATS record for the season. Not good, I know, but considering how badly my usually reliable stability system was to start the season, I feel like things stabilized for me post-September. In my opinion, the bowl games are the best time of year to handicap, assuming you keep up with the pertinent news about the teams playing, since opt-outs, coaching changes, and the transfer portal can change teams dramatically from even just a few weeks prior. That said, please be sure to read my MOTIVATIONAL FACTORS CHECKLIST for the bowl games, which was published on VSiN this week. Since I once again participated in our CFP Betting Guide picking of all the bowl games (vs. Adam Burke this year), I plan on giving out at least one Best Bet opinion for each bowl game. I will be issuing best bet writeups into three parts at this point, with this first one taking us through the end of the CFP first round next Saturday. I will have the CFP semifinals and championship games separate when that time arrives. So, enjoy the start of the bowl season. Here is what I have for the first week.
Note that I put together complete game previews for the conference championship games in a separate article and am sharing the top systems, trends, and other data points that led me to my picks here.
Saturday, December 13, 2025
Boise State at Washington
Bucked Up LA Bowl
When I look at this matchup in the LA Bowl, it definitely feels to me like one of these teams needs this game more than the other, and that team is Washington, who went 8-4 this year in the second season under head coach Jedd Fisch and is clearly making strides forward again after a 6-7 season in 2024. Last year ended sub-.500 with a 1-point loss to Louisville in the Sun Bowl, but Fisch got it turned around quickly.
On the other sideline, I have a hard time seeing how Boise State charges itself up for this bowl game, the first of the season, mind you, after playing in the CFP last season. The Broncos weren’t exactly firing down the stretch either, as prior to their MWC title game win over UNLV, a team they always dominate, they had gone 1-3-1 ATS in the prior five games, scoring 25 points or less four times. They are going to need to score here since against the four best defensive teams they faced, the Huskies scored 9.3 PPG, all losses. In the eight other games, they scored 46.1 PPG. I don’t group this BSU team in the elite defense tier. I look for a motivated UW team to take care of business Saturday.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll take Washington -9.5 in LA Bowl
Army at Navy
I feel like there are a lot of people out there that still look at this Army-Navy rivalry as one between two option attack teams that will bleed the clock out to the point where Unders on totals are inevitable. For one, that era of the rivalry seems to be Over, as the 16-year run of nothing but Unders ended in 2021. Since then, there have been two Overs and a push. For this year’s game, one of these teams is actually very good offensively, as Navy scored 32.5 PPG and averaged a lofty 7.28 effective yards per play. Why wouldn’t they be good offensively? QB Blake Horvath, the clear leader and playmaker, busted out last year and just continued the trend upward this season.
The Midshipmen actually put up 378 yards of offense in this game in 2024, when Army was supposedly the better team. However, Navy also struggles to stop anyone, and in fact, six of their last seven opponents topped the 30-point mark. I do believe Army is going to have to score some points to be in this game, and since underdogs typically are highly motivated in this rivalry, I believe they will. The potentially slippery weather in Baltimore should aid the offenses, too.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll back the Over 38.5 in the Army-Navy battle
Tuesday, December 16, 2025
Troy at Jacksonville State
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Troy made a lot of strides this season under second-year head coach Gerad Parker, winning eight games and battling eventual CFP team James Madison evenly for the greater part of three quarters in the Sun Belt title game. Was the quick resurgence a surprise? Possibly, since the Trojans only had five starters back on both sides of the ball from their 4-8 team of 2024, but let’s not forget, this program, up through as recently as 2023, was a perennial SBC power. They are just getting back to where they feel they belong.
Their opponent in the Salute to Veterans Bowl is a Jacksonville State team that had a major rebuild this season after moving on from head coach Rich Rodriguez last season, but also managed to play in a league title game. However, it is the comparison in the power levels of these leagues that has me leaning towards Troy on Tuesday. Looking closely at the JSU season log, the Gamecocks played two games versus Sun Belt foes, losing both, including a 42-25 decision versus Southern Miss. Troy, meanwhile, just beat USM by 10 points a few weeks ago. The Trojans’ program typically prepares well for bowl games too, on current runs of 5-1 SU & 6-3 ATS.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll lay the 2.5 points with Troy in the Salute to Veterans Bowl
Wednesday, December 17, 2025
Old Dominion at South Florida
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
As I write about in my Motivational Factors Checklist every bowl season, there are always news stories every year regarding player or coach availability that drastically affect the teams. While it might be underrated just due to the fact that it is the second bowl game of the season featuring a Sun Belt team vs. an AAC team, the news surrounding the QBs deciding not to play in the Cure Bowl may be bigger than any other players, as both are HUGE parts of each team’s attack. The Monarchs’ QB Colton Joseph, who had a huge season throwing for 2,624 yards and rushing for 1,007, has entered the transfer portal and won’t play versus South Florida.
Meanwhile, USF QB Byrum Brown also recently opted out after accounting for over 4,100 yards of offense and leading an offense that put up 43 PPG this season. I’m not sure it’s even possible for oddsmakers to accurately gauge the depth of these personnel losses. So which team or side of total manges best? Well, considering that South Florida head coach Alex Golesh has also departed for Auburn, I would think that ODU coach Ricky Rahne and his staff will have the preparation edge. I picked otherwise in the CFP betting guide, but the combined loss of Brown/Golesh has me rethinking if there are any reasons to lay points in this one.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go Old Dominion +3.5 in the Cure Bowl
Louisiana Lafayette at Delaware
68 Ventures Bowl
From the sounds of it, the opt-outs or other player personnel decisions for the 68 Ventures Bowl are minimal, so we should get as close to the actual Louisiana and Delaware teams as we’ve seen since September. What have we seen? For the most part, mediocrity and inconsistency, not abnormal for 6-6 teams. In many cases, I would be leaning heaviest on taking the points in a game like this. When you consider that Delaware will probably relish this first bowl opportunity more than the Ragin Cajuns will, the motivational edge is probably on the side of the Blue Hens.
That said, I am going to look closer at the Over on this one, as these teams have involved themselves in some real shootouts this season. In fact, with Louisiana going Over the total in all of its last five games, head coach Michael Desormeaux’s team played in games topping this game’s total in 10 of their last 12 tries. The Blue Hens scored 61 in their season finale, and four of their last seven games saw point totals of 63 or more. Both QBs, Nick Minucci of Delaware and Lunch Winfield of ULL are capable playmakers and should put on a show in Birmingham.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go Over 59.5 in the Louisiana-Delaware matchup
Thursday, December 18, 2025
Missouri State at Arkansas State
Xbox Bowl
As I remarked in my Motivational Factors piece, recent history has shown me that if nothing else is considered, looking at the experience level of head coaches in bowl games is a great place to start your handicapping. After all, since 2015, or the last 10 bowl seasons, head coaches with an experience advantage in terms of number of bowl games coached over the opponent have gone 203-156 SU and 201-155-4 ATS (56.5%)! These coaches were 27-16 SU and 28-14-1 ATS last season.
Furthermore, first-time bowl game head coaches have really struggled over the last eight seasons, going 46-64 SU and 45-63-1 ATS (41.7%) vs. non-first-year coaches! And finally, it is in games that are expected to be tight that the coaching difference really stands out, as first-time bowl coaches are just 19-31 SU and 16-31-3 ATS (34%) over the last 10 seasons in games with lines in the +4.5 to -4.5 range. Well, for this Xbox bowl matchup, all of these systems get behind Arkansas State and head coach Butch Jones against Missouri State. Not only that, but Jones has been a solid bowl coach in general, leading four different programs to a 6-2 ATS mark.
Now, naturally, the excitement level is going to be peaking for MSU, having just ascended to FBS level this season, but the Bears only beat one bowl team this year, FIU, and thus I feel the inexperience factor will wind up outweighing the excitement. Oddsmakers are having trouble with this game, as the line has flipped back and forth three times. At last check, the right team, ASU was favored.
College Football Best Bets: I’ll go with Arkansas State -1.5 in the XBox Bowl
Friday, December 19, 2025
Kennesaw State at Western Michigan
Myrtle Beach Bowl Presented by Engine
The Myrtle Beach Bowl game for 2025 is a good one, and at first glance, one of the toughest games of the entire season to find a motivational edge in, since both teams were unexpected winners of their respective conference titles, and both are hungry to win bowl games. Kennesaw State has never been to a bowl game, having just ascended to FBS level football last year. Western Michigan has won just one bowl game in the last decade, but its two most recent program bowl wins were in the only two it was favored in.
In the end, the inconsistency of the KSU defense against the recent dominant nature of the WMU defense figures to be the difference in my mind. The Broncos have been outstanding on that side of the ball, allowing over 21 points just once in their last 10 games and holding teams 9.4 points below their season averages. That would put KSU on pace for sub-20. Plus, if you look at the recent history of Conference USA vs. MAC teams in bowl games, you’ll see the latter with a couple of edges. First, MAC teams are on an 8-5-1 ATS run in the matchup, and second, you’ll see favorites have gone 27-3 SU and 22-7-1 ATS in head-to-head bowl game play since 2001. You’ll also see that Unders are 7-1 in the last eight of such matchups. I don’t mind either play.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Western Michigan -4 and/or Under 49.5 in Myrtle Beach
Memphis at NC State
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
From everything I’ve read to this point, it seems that NC State QB CJ Bailey does plan on playing against Memphis in the Gasparilla Bowl and then think about his future with the program afterward. Furthermore, with the Wolfpack having lost to East Carolina last season for a fifth straight bowl defeat, it seems as if he and the rest of the team have grown a chip on their shoulder, which they hope to take off in Tampa. Memphis is in a transitional state, having lost head coach Ryan Silverfield to Arkansas, leaving defensive coordinator Reggie Howard to man the ship and making this contest one of the bigger head coach bowl experience mismatches on the entire bowl board.
NC State head coach Dave Doeren will be coaching his 11th bowl game. Of course, we know that when matched up against an opposing coach that has been in at least 10 bowl games, rookie head coaches’ record over the last 10 years slips to an abysmal 9-20 SU and 6-23 ATS (20.7%)! That is what Howard is up against as he tries to salvage a Tigers’ campaign that saw three straight outright & ATS losses to end it.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll lay the 5.5 points with NC State against Memphis
Alabama at Oklahoma
CFP First Round Playoff – Home Site (Oklahoma)
This first CFP game is getting its fair share of line swings as it seems that oddsmakers can’t get a grip on whether Alabama or Oklahoma should be favored. The latest line finds Alabama as a -1.5-point favorite, which would mark the first time in the CFP in which we have a home dog. Of course, the hosts went 4-0 SU and ATS last year, but so did the favorites. Thus, little can be garnered from that.
From my perspective, I love the fact that Alabama is being doubted after its season-ending slump, and getting a reprieve here with a perhaps undeserved bid could motivate them. I also feel like the better team lost the earlier game between these teams, as the Tide fell 23-21 despite outgaining the Sooners 406-212.
In my humble opinion, Oklahoma was one of the least deserving teams for a CFP berth by none other than the eye test. The OU offense scored just 21.5 PPG in SEC play, and they will need more than that to win this game if Alabama puts up that type of offensive production again. The Tide also are backed by this angle: Ranked teams coming off of double-digit losses have responded nicely of late, going 63-24 SU and 54-32-1 ATS (62.8%) in the next game since November of ’21
College Football Best Bet: Give me Alabama -1.5 to advance past Oklahoma
Saturday, December 20, 2025
James Madison at Oregon
CFP First Round Playoff – Home Site (Oregon)
In its last 11 games as a home non-conference favorite of 19 points or more, Oregon has gone 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS, with all double-digit wins. Can this Oregon team accomplish the same thing in a CFP contest? I would certainly think so, and feel that the Ducks, the #1 team in the country in my effective play-by-play ratings, could simply overwhelm James Madison. This “opportunity” has to be somewhat of a shock for the Dukes, who are one of the more recent FBS adds and probably had a goal of a New Orleans Bowl bid as recently as two weeks ago.
Along those lines, doesn’t this game remind you a lot of the Fiesta Bowl a couple of years ago, where Oregon matched up against upstart Liberty? That game wound up 45-6. This year’s Ducks team has an even better defense than that one did. Plus, JMU wasn’t exactly rolling to end the season. The Dukes were tested thoroughly by Troy in the Sun Belt title game and were just 4-5 ATS in their last nine games. That’s not exactly a glowing resume for a Group of 5 CFP team.
Add to all of this the thought that with head coach Bob Chesney off to UCLA following their eventual playoff exit, many JMU players have to be contemplating their futures right now, not so much focusing on Oregon. Let’s not forget the simplest of ranked games systems still apply here: In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 219-113 SU and 191-132-9 ATS (59.1%). Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 125-30 SU and 94-57-4 ATS (62.3%). In four years of FBS-level football, the Dukes’ two toughest opponents have been games at Louisville, losses by 24 and 14 points. This is an entirely different animal.
College Football Best Bet: Oregon (-21.5) rolls in the CFP first round versus James Madison
Tulane at Ole Miss
CFP First Round Playoff – Home Site (Ole Miss)
While I do believe the big favorite has a chance to roll in the James Madison-Oregon contest, I feel the opposite about this one. The Green Wave was a far lesser team when it faced a Lane Kiffin-led Ole Miss team back in September. And they were still working in late transfer addition QB Jake Retzlaff. Now, with Kiffin off to LSU, and the teams set for a rematch in a first-round CFP game, the Green Wave are 5-point bigger underdogs than they were in the earlier meeting. This is a playoff game, and I have to believe Tulane believes it is much better than it was then.
I can’t say the same for the Rebels without Kiffin. If you believe in my coaching systems for bowl games, first-time bowl/playoff game head coaches (Pete Golding) have really struggled over the last eight seasons, going 46-64 SU and 45-63-1 ATS (41.7%) vs. non-first-year coaches! Tulane also has a rich history of being a gritty underdog against big conference teams and has been in Big 6 bowl games on big stages before.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Tulane +17.5 to be much more competitive this time around
Miami (FL) at Texas A&M
CFP First Round Playoff – Home Site (Texas A&M)
I feel a little strange backing three road teams ATS in the CFP first round after the carnage that occurred last year for the visitors, but in my opinion, with the stronger teams getting a bye this year instead of conference title winners like last year, it opens things up for roadies.
In the case of Miami and Texas A&M, my questions aren’t about which team has the better body of work, but rather which team is better right now. The Hurricanes played some of their best football down the stretch, on both sides of the ball, as QB Carson Beck finally seemed to be settling into the elite role he hoped to eventually lead this program in.
The Aggies, besides the season-ending loss at home to Texas in which the offense really struggled, also nearly fell to South Carolina two weeks prior after having to rally from a huge early deficit. So I ask again, is head coach Mike Elko’s team worthy of laying points here? Am I concerned that 86% of the handle at DraftKings as of this writing was on the road dog Hurricanes? Well, no since when a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 132-113 ATS (53.9%).
I don’t believe Beck and Co are going to light up the A&M defense, but the late struggles of Aggies’ QB Marcel Reed and the fact that Miami was one of the best units in the country has me believing. Perhaps under the total might be of interest too, since teams like Miami, coming off a win over a ranked team and playing another ranked team, are 76-34 Under the total (69.1%) in these next contests dating back to September of 2021.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go Miami +3.5 and/or Under 51.5 versus Texas A&M
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