Monday’s CFP national title game between Indiana and Miami offers an intriguing matchup of new-age college football powers, teams that have taken full advantage of the new rules of transfer portals and NIL to reach the pinnacle. Both teams have enjoyed phenomenal playoff runs to work their way through the bracket, and neither has lost a CFP point spread in getting here. Both teams boast incredible defenses, and in terms of effective points per game allowed, ranked #3 and #4 in the country, according to my numbers. 

It is on the offensive side of the ball where oddsmakers seem to be giving the Hoosiers the edge in both talent and execution, which is why they are installed as 8.5-point favorites as of Thursday. If recent history is any indication, that is advantage: IU, as favorites have swept the last six national title games, both SU and ATS, winning all of them by at least 11 points. 

However, perhaps the most interesting thing about this year’s title game is that it will be played on one of the team’s home fields, as Miami calls Hard Rock Stadium its home. Can the Big Ten wrap up a third straight title? Can Indiana Head Coach Curt Cignetti successfully close one of the greatest program turnarounds in sports history? Or will Miami stun the CFB world and steal a first title for the ACC in seven years on its home turf? Let’s take a look at some of the key trends, facts, and figures, and I’ll give my take on Monday’s contest at the conclusion of the piece.

These are some of the top trends affecting the CFP title game.

* Take away the three Miami CFP wins so far this season, and ACC teams are on a 10-23 SU and 7-24 ATS skid in bowl games overall
This record does include a 4-6 ATS mark in the 10 games other ACC teams played this bowl season. Ironically, Miami had been the conference’s worst bowl/playoff team in recent years but managed to turn it around to score three straight wins to reach the title game. 

* Prior to the 2025-26 bowl season, ACC teams were on a 9-30 SU and 11-28 ATS skid versus Big Ten and SEC opponents in bowl games dating back to 2017
This trend has turned around this season with ACC teams going 5-1 SU and ATS in such matchups, including three wins for Miami. Is Miami’s recent bowl struggles now a thing of the past, or will this be the game where the Hurricanes revert back to their old tendencies? 

* On totals, since 2012, when ACC bowl/playoff teams have been underdogs of 6.5 points or more, they are 21-10 Over the total.
This trend is of obvious concern to bettors who might believe the Miami defense can contain the Indiana offense, since the ACC’s opponents in these games scored over 36 PPG. 

* Big Ten teams are 16-4 SU and 15-5 ATS versus ACC opponents in bowl/playoff games dating back to 2017.
This trend includes a record of 1-1 SU and ATS in the 2025-26 bowl season, but the only game that Miami is concerned about is how they throttled Ohio State 24-14 in the CFP quarterfinals. If you consider common opponent results as a key factor in your handicapping, recall that Indiana edged the Buckeyes 13-10 in the Big Ten title game. However, the Hoosiers have stepped it up several notches since that game, particularly on offense. 

* Big Ten teams are on an extended run of 47-14 SU and 42-18-1 ATS as a bowl game favorite of 2-points or more dating back to 2007
This trend would, of course, apply to Indiana on Monday night. This includes a 4-2 SU and ATS record for the 2025-26 bowl season, with the Hoosiers’ most recent decision over Oregon tacking on another victory. The Big Ten has been a very underrated conference over the last decade when it comes to being favored. Can Indiana add another win to this angle to close out the season and bring home a third straight title for the conference? 

* Favorites are on a run of 31-10 SU and 27-14 ATS in the crucial playoff or big 6 level bowl games featuring Big Ten teams
This conference angle is another example of how the Big Ten has defied critics in recent years. Indiana was the favored team in the Peach Bowl against Oregon and will be looking to extend this impressive angle on Monday night.

These are some of the top trends from recent national championship games. 

* Favorites have won six straight championship games SU and ATS after losing six straight ATS
There was a stretch of six straight underdog covers in the national championship game from 2014-19. However, the favorites have turned it around over the last six years. All five games were decided by double-digits. The average margin of victory for favorites in that span has been a lofty 25 PPG. Can Indiana win another one for the chalk and theoretically hit sportsbooks where it hurts again?

* BIG TEN teams are 4-3 SU and ATS in national title games since 2006
This will be the first time since 2019 that an ACC team will have played in a title game, and the first one other than Clemson since 2014. Indiana, of course, is also new to this big stage, having not even won a bowl since 1991 prior to this season. However, the Hoosiers have certainly looked the part of being a championship-worthy team as they look to bring home a third straight title for the Big Ten.

* Favorites of 5 points or more are just 8-9 SU and 6-11 ATS in national title contests since 1999
Even with the Buckeyes’ win over Notre Dame a year ago in the national title contest, it hasn’t been a big reward to be favored heavily in the season’s biggest game. There is a great deal of pressure that comes with it, and a whole lot of motivation that goes to the underdog. That said, there have been three big favorites as part of the current six-game SU and ATS winning streak by the chalk, so perhaps were are seeing a turning of the tide.   

* Outright winners are just 9-3 ATS in the last 12 national championship games
If you got to read any of the bowl game trends I published on VSiN over the last month, you can probably recall that there are some bowl series in which the outright winner of the games has covered the point spread over 20 times in a row, and others with 31-1, etc. Such has not been the case in title games, as outright winners are just 9-3 ATS in the last 12 years. Remember, the ultimate goal is winning this game, not so much in being decisive about it. Something to definitely keep in mind with a point spread over 8 points like the one we are looking at for Monday. 

*Teams failing to score 21 points in national title games are 1-15 SU and ATS
The 21-point benchmark has been a critical one in determining whether or not a team has a good chance of winning or covering a point spread in these title games. Case in point: 2024, when Washington came up well short in producing just 13 points. Can you foresee either of this year’s teams failing to reach 21 points? The line/total combination of -8.5/47.5 suggests a final score of 28-19.5 in favor of Indiana, so the “experts” are not expecting Miami to score well. Another stat to watch here is that both teams held opponents about 23 points below their season effective averages. If that holds, the Hurricanes would be due for about 18 points.

*Teams scoring 31 points in national title games are 21-3 SU and 20-4 ATS
On the other side of the high-scoring benchmark, 31 points is the target. This trend has converted over the last seven years, with the winning team averaging 43.4 PPG! By the odds, Indiana is “supposed to” get 28. Interestingly, the Hoosiers reached the 31-point mark in 10 of their 15 games, while the Hurricanes did so eight times, but just once in the last three. 

* Breakdown of nat’l title total results <55: 10-4 Over, >54.5: 7-5 Under
These championship games have been high scoring, as it typically takes a very good offense to arrive on this stage. If you go back through the list of the last 13 games, 14 of the 26 combatants have scored more than 30 points. The offenses typically come prepared, and both of this year’s teams have proven to be explosive. It would seem that the defenses are the better units in this game, but don’t forget, it looked the same in the Notre Dame-Ohio State contest last year, and those teams erupted for 57 points. Don’t prematurely discount two title-worthy offenses. 

*Bettors are 4-2 ATS in the last five national title games when moving lines towards a side
Following line moves in recent championship games would have been a pretty sound strategy. However, in the case of the 2025 game, DraftKings opened the game at Ohio State -9.5, and it finished at -8.5. For this year, Indiana opened at -7.5, and has been bet upward to -8.5. Be sure to continue to follow this up until kickoff, as it can change. 

*Bettors are on a 0-12-1 slide in national title games when moving totals
Bettors have really struck out in these national championship games when it comes to the totals over the last decade-plus, as they have lost all 12 games that didn’t result in a push. For 2025, DraftKings opened the game at 48.5, and it closed at 45.5, meaning bettors favored the Under. It lost handily in a 34-23 decision. This year’s game finds bettors again favoring the Under, with the number moving from 48.5 at opener to 47.5 most recently. Continue to follow this up until kickoff, as obviously 0-12-1 warrants your attention. Interestingly, 55% of the handle and 79% of the bets favored the Over, yet the total went down. Is DK encouraging more Over wagering?

– MIAMI has won its last seven games ATS versus AP Top 25-ranked opponents
– MIAMI is on a 7-0 ATS streak versus big play passing teams averaging more than 8.3 yards per pass attempt
Miami’s last four victories to get to this point have come over ranked opponents, Pitt, Texas A&M, Ohio State, and Ole Miss. All of those teams boasted solid passing games and talented quarterbacks. However, none of those teams’ stats matched the capabilities of the Hoosiers and QB Fernando Mendoza, the Heisman Trophy winner. Indiana takes everything that the Hurricanes have seen this season and turns it up a notch. Can the Miami defense respond to the challenge? These trends would indicate they can, and will. 

– INDIANA is on a 13-5 ATS run coming off a blowout win of 20+ points
– INDIANA is on a 6-1 ATS run versus elite defenses allowing fewer than 17.5 PPG
– INDIANA is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 tries versus strong passing teams averaging 7.9 yards per attempt or more
Try convincing even the most diehard of Indiana fans that trends like these would have existed just two seasons into the head coach Curt Cignetti era. It has been a whirlwind the last two years since he arrived from James Madison. This team has won, it has won big, and it has beaten the best of the best. Incredible CFP rout wins over storybook programs like Alabama and Oregon tell the tale. Can the Hoosiers dominate 60 more minutes this season against perhaps the best defense and quarterback they have faced? That is the big question here.

– MIAMI is 7-0 Under in its last seven games versus AP Top 5 opponents
– INDIANA is 18-6 Over in its last 24 games when playing as a 7-point favorite or more
Naturally, these trends conflict with one another, and bettors will have to discern what type of game will be played on Monday night at Hard Rock. Will the Hurricanes be able to control the dynamic Indiana offense, or will QB Carson Beck have to get into the shootout with IU’s Mendoza just as he did against Ole Miss and QB Trinidad Chambliss? Indiana has shown it can play either way, but considering that the Hoosiers have put up 94 points in two CFP games, and the stellar Miami defense allowed 27 points to Ole Miss, is it realistic to think IU will be held in check?

Steve’s take on the 2026 College Football Playoff Final

(287) MIAMI vs. (288) INDIANA (-8.5/47.5)

As I’ve stared at the line and total for the CFP championship for almost a week, there are some simple thoughts that have overcome me. First, are oddsmakers putting any stock into the fact that Miami is playing “at home” for this game? It doesn’t feel like it. 

Second, prior to the playoffs starting, I would have had the line for this game at around -6 with about half home-field advantage applied. Has there been 2.5-points of swing based upon what has happened the last few weeks? I know IU has won two routs, but Alabama was very overrated and was too, to a lesser degree. 

And third, does Miami have much of a chance if this game starts getting up into the 30-point range for Indiana? To me, it’s not an automatic that the Hoosiers score a lot here, as Miami’s defense is extremely talented, probably the best IU has faced all season. QB Mendoza & Co. were held to 30-points or fewer five times this season. I don’t think Miami will play to an Over pace here, as they almost lost to Ole Miss in doing so. The Hurricanes need to run the ball more, and QB Beck needs to be a game manager for them to have a chance at an upset. 

Of course, one of the other major factors that comes to mind for me in any given huge game is where the money is going. For this one, we have an astronomical 84% of the handle backing Indiana. Are the DK oddsmakers going to let this game sit at 8.5 for much longer with that type of disparity? Or are they comfortable with their position? It would be rather unprecedented to see yet another public favorite win big for the title, thus handing the books another big L. 

On the total, I am obviously aware of the trend I just posted showing bettors moving totals having gone 0-12-1 in the last 13 games. However, there is more money on the Over here, yet the total is dropping. It sort of feels like a trap to me, seeing a total of 47.5 when the teams played semifinal games that posted 58 & 78 points. I also feel Miami can’t play to an Over pace or they could get beat bad. I am going to put my trust in their elite defense to keep them in this game. I’ll call for a 26-20 win for Indiana.

National Championship Best Bet: Give me leans of Miami +8.5 and Under 47.5 in the CFP title game

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR