The two College Football Playoffs semifinal games scheduled for Thursday and Friday feature some unexpected teams, with none of the four being ranked better than seventh in AP’s preseason rankings just a handful of months ago. If NIL has had any positive effect on college football, perhaps it is this: showing that the scales can be balanced to the point where brand name is less important than roster cohesion and execution. 

The CFP’s top seed, Indiana, is still around, but the other three teams were seeded fifth, sixth and 10th. If anyone out there has picked a perfect bracket to this point, that is extraordinary. That said, minus recognizable teams like Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State, the semifinal games will proceed with a pair of highly intriguing matchups, one pitting talented Big Ten teams against one another, and the other matching ACC and SEC teams that weren’t even involved in their league title games. These four teams are the best in the country right now, and two of them will find their way to Miami for the national title game on January 19.

The odds for the games reflect the thought that oddsmakers expect the games to be quite competitive, with both games featuring favorites of about a field goal. No. 1 Indiana seems to be the most respected team of the four, playing as a 3.5-point favorite over an Oregon team that it already beat on the road earlier in the season. Miami is the favorite in the other game after dominating Ohio State in the quarterfinals, but underdog Ole Miss posted an impressive win of its own in the last round, a come-from-behind victory over Georgia. 

Let’s take a quick look at some key trends before I share my take on both games. For the record, my best bets mark stands at 175-175-2 ATS (50%) for the season after a very strong bowl season in which I was 34-23-2 ATS (59.6%) on best bets and 49-30-1 ATS (62%) on all bowl picks I submitted in the VSiN CFP Betting Guide in early December.

This is just a sampling of what you can find on the matchups pages of VSiN.com, and there are plenty of other great trends on sides and totals, as well as stats, my strength ratings, game logs, betting splits and much more.

— MIAMI has won its last six games ATS versus AP Top 25-ranked opponents
— MIAMI is on a 7-0 ATS streak versus strong passing teams that average more than 7.9 yards per pass attempt

Steve’s thoughts: For anyone who earlier questioned Miami’s ability to compete against the elite teams of college football, this recent trend seems to answer that question. Including their last three victories over Ohio State, Texas A&M and Pitt, the 2025-26 Hurricanes have turned around a trend that used to keep them out of the elite of college football. Of course, their primary strength has been their defense, their pass defense in particular, as they rank third in the country in sacks per game. Miami will have its hands full with Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss, but there might not be a better unit to slow him down.

— OLE MISS is on a 10-0 ATS streak versus decent passing defenses that yield less than 6.50 yards per passing attempt
— OLE MISS is on a 6-1 ATS surge in January bowl games as well as a 6-1 ATS surge versus ACC opponents

Steve’s thoughts: Considering how well Miami has stopped strong passing teams lately, and how well Ole Miss has fared against decent passing defenses, something obviously has to give on Thursday night in Glendale, Arizona. Which will win out, QB Chambliss or the Miami defense, figures to have a huge say in which team advances to the natty. Recent Ole Miss teams have played their best football in late-season bowl games, and they have shown superiority over their recent ACC foes. Does the conference matchup favor the Rebels? Are they motivated by being an underdog against an ACC team? We’ll see. 

— OREGON is on a 13-5-1 ATS run against dominant teams that outscore opponents by more than 15 PPG
— OREGON is on a 5-1-1 ATS surge versus teams ranked better than them in the AP Poll

Steve’s thoughts: These are remarkable trends considering the makeup of the teams that represent the opponents of the Ducks in both angles. With as good as Oregon has been in recent years, matchups against teams ranking better are rare. The quarterfinal win over Texas Tech, a dominant 23-0 decision, advanced both of these elite angles.

— INDIANA is on a 7-1 ATS run versus strong defenses that allow fewer than 20 PPG
— INDIANA is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 tries versus decent passing teams that average 7.5 yards per attempt or more

Steve’s thoughts: There were only 18 teams in college football that allowed fewer than 20 PPG this season. Indiana was 3-0 against those it faced. The Hoosiers proved they were elite on both sides of the ball this season, however, and they ride a nice stretch of 10-1 ATS against decent passing offenses as well. Oregon’s defense and QB Dante Moore are the Ducks’ most obvious strong points; they seem to fit perfectly with what the Hoosiers play best against.

These are some of the top bowl game trends affecting the two semifinal games.

Take away the two Miami CFP wins so far this season, and ACC teams are on a 10-23 SU and 7-24 ATS skid in bowl games overall
Steve’s thoughts: This record includes a 4-6 ATS mark in the 10 games other ACC teams played this bowl season. Ironically, Miami had been the conference’s worst bowl/playoff team in recent years but managed to turn it around to score back-to-back wins to reach the semifinals.

Before the 2025-26 bowl season, ACC teams were on a 9-30 SU and 11-28 ATS skid versus Big Ten and SEC opponents in bowl games dating to 2017
Steve’s thoughts: This trend has turned around this season with ACC teams going 4-1 SU and ATS in such matchups, including a pair of wins for Miami. Is the Fiesta Bowl the game in which the conference reverts to its old tendencies, or are we seeing a turning of the page?

Since 2010, when ACC bowl/playoff teams have been favored by four points or fewer, they are 34-16 Under the total
Steve’s thoughts: This trend has continued this season with ACC teams going 3-1 Under the total in such matchups. With Miami favored by three points over Ole Miss, and a total set at 52.5, are we looking at a more defense-oriented game?

* Big Ten teams are on an extended run of 46-14 SU and 41-18-1 ATS as a bowl game favorite of two points or more dating to 2007
Steve’s thoughts: This trend, of course, applies to Indiana in the Peach Bowl versus Oregon. This includes a 3-2 SU and ATS record for the 2025-26 bowl season. One of the wins was, of course, the Hoosiers’ 38-3 dominance of Alabama. The Big Ten has been a very underrated conference over the last decade when it comes to being favored. Can Indiana add perhaps two more wins to this angle to close out the season?

* Favorites are on a run of 30-10 SU and 26-14 ATS in the crucial playoff or Big 6-level bowl games featuring Big Ten teams
Steve’s thoughts: This conference angle is another example of how the Big Ten has defied critics in recent years. Of course, a lot of these wins belong to Ohio State, although the Buckeyes failed to come through for bettors last week versus Miami. Indiana is the favored team in the Peach Bowl and will be looking to extend this impressive angle.

* Similar to the Big Ten, favorites are on a run of 25-7 SU and 21-11 ATS in the crucial playoff or Big 6-level bowl games featuring SEC teams
Steve’s thoughts: This is another conference angle that has taken a turn this season, and it started with Texas A&M’s loss to Miami. The favorites in the CFP games featuring SEC teams are just 2-3 ATS this season. One of the underdog winners was Ole Miss, though, and the Rebels will look to make it back-to-back upset playoff wins when they take on Miami.

* Outright winners have lost ATS just twice in the last 33 Fiesta Bowl games
Steve’s thoughts: This trend would seem to suggest that expecting Ole Miss to stay within three points while not winning is erroneous. The outright winner nearly always wins against the spread. Don’t get cute here. If you think Miami wins, they almost assuredly will cover. If you think Ole Miss covers, it will probably win outright.

* Favorites have gone 7-1 SU and ATS in the last eight Fiesta Bowl games
Steve’s thoughts: The better team has come to play recently in the Fiesta Bowl, and three of the last five favorite wins have been decided by 17 points or more. Is Miami in line for an easier victory than expected on Thursday? Keep in mind that in the last six Fiesta Bowl games with lines of -4.5 or fewer, favorites are 5-1 SU and ATS. That said, the last time Miami played in this game, as an 11.5-point favorite over Ohio State, it lost 31-24.

* Underdogs own a 22-9-1 ATS edge in the Peach Bowl since 1993
Steve’s thoughts: The Peach Bowl series has been the only one of the former Big 6-level bowl games in which the underdog has owned a sizable advantage. Call it random, or matchup-based, or whatever other reasoning, but 22-9-1 ATS on point-spread wagers is hard to ignore. Oregon is the underdog to Indiana here. In the earlier head-to-head matchup between the teams, the underdog won outright. Something to consider.

* INDIANA’s 38-3 win in the Rose Bowl over Alabama was its first bowl game victory since 1991. The Hoosiers were 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS since. They have gone Under the total in five straight bowl/playoff games.
Steve’s thoughts: Before coach Curt Cignetti’s arrival, bowl games for Indiana were rare, and any talk of college football playoff contests was a dream. Overcoming the seven-game bowl skid was huge. Can the Hoosiers maintain the momentum in a game they are expected to win against Oregon?

* MIAMI is on a horrendous stretch of 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS as a bowl/playoff game favorite since 2005
Steve’s thoughts: Let’s not forget that Miami was the underdog in its first two playoff games. Now, when the Hurricanes are expected to win, how will they respond? Historically, they haven’t fared well as chalk in these bowl/playoff games.

* OLE MISS is on an incredible run of 16-4 SU and 15-4-1 ATS in bowl/playoff games since 1992, including 7-1 SU and ATS as an underdog.
Steve’s thoughts: Ole Miss has rather quietly been one of the premier bowl teams in the country over the last 35 or so years, losing just four times in 20 games. The Rebels have won CFP games in both the favorite and underdog roles this season, and their bowl/playoff game underdog trend shows they do not fear playing as such.

* OREGON is just 6-6 SU and 4-8 ATS in its last 12 bowl/playoff games overall
Steve’s thoughts: The Ducks’ recent bowl resume is anything but stellar, but they do have a chance to change all of that by running the table this season with four wins. Of note, Oregon is 5-3 ATS in its last eight bowl/playoff games versus Big Ten teams.

VSiN CFB Analytics Report / AJ’s Angles

With just two semifinal games on the docket, it didn’t make sense for us to put together a complete Analytics Report as usual. Instead, I simply asked VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen to give me the Top Angles he was looking at. Here they are:

* MIAMI FL is 3-11 ATS (21.4%) in neutral-site games since 2014

* OLE MISS is 19-7 ATS (73.1%) in non-conference games in the last six seasons

* INDIANA has won its two meetings with Oregon since 2004, both SU and ATS

* Since the start of the 2016 season, neutral-field underdogs playing in revenge mode have gone 55-36 ATS (60.4%)
System Match (PLAY): OREGON (+3.5 vs Indiana)

CFB Ranked Team System #15: Teams coming off a win over a ranked team and playing another ranked team are 83-38 Under the total (68.6%) in these next games dating to September of 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIAMI FL-OLE MISS (o/u at 52.5), OREGON-INDIANA (o/u at 46.5)

* CFB DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority of number of bets has backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022-24 record was 213-163 (56.6%). This goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OLE MISS, INDIANA

See Steve’s College Football Playoff Semifinals Best Bets.

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