College Football Week 10 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
Since taking the week off to refresh my mind and data a couple weeks back, I have put together 12-5 ATS and 12-6 ATS weeks with my best bets columns. After a terrible week with NFL picks, I should be considering doing the same. In any case, hopefully those of you who follow me regularly don’t go too hard on me about Sunday after the Saturday results. It’s been a solid past month overall for my college football stuff, as my Effective Play-by-play lines (55.1% ATS the last four weeks) are also doing very well.
As we head into Week 10 of the college football season, my best bets mark is now 77-68-1 ATS (53.1%). The Week 10 slate is one of the biggest of the year, with showdowns all across the board, including Miami (FL)-Notre Dame, Georgia-Ole Miss, and Alabama-LSU, among others. A lot of those games are highlighted in this week’s loaded VSiN College Football Analytics Report, and I have some opinions.
Speaking of which, I wanted to address a reader who wondered both why I take so many games and why I don’t rank the games in order of my “confidence.” The answer is simple…I am a system-based bettor, and I look for games that meet certain criteria. I either like the game or I don’t. If you add different unit sizes to any wagering log, you are simply adding another layer of luck to the equation. I game on the games, not lady luck. At the end of the day, these are the games that caught my eye for Week 10.
Thursday, November 5, 2026
James Madison at Southern Miss (+14.5)
Although it’s a short sample size of two weeks, this is a game of teams heading in opposite directions. James Madison has lost two straight, both in double-digit favorite upsets. Southern Miss has won two games, putting up 35 points in each, and it looks like they are finally coming around under head coach Blake Anderson. This should be a pretty charged atmosphere in Hattiesburg with JMU listed as a 14.5-point road favorite. My power ratings say the line should only be -12.9, and my Effective Play-by-play ratings are calling for -9.5.
The fact that the Dukes are coming off the OT loss to Troy doesn’t bode well for them systematically either: Road favorites coming off a close loss of 10 points or fewer are just 79-114 ATS (40.9%) since 2022. I’m not ready to assume head coach Billy Napier’s team will bounce back here, as they’ve allowed 20+ to four straight opponents, none of them high-powered offenses.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go with Southern Miss +14.5 on Thursday night
Friday, November 6, 2026
South Florida (+1.5) at East Carolina
When head coach Brian Hartline came to USF prior to the season, it was assumed he would bring the offensive prowess he demonstrated in recent years as offensive coordinator at Ohio State. Ironically, his defense at USF has been the defining factor in what has been a solid first season so far. That unit is allowing just 14.5 PPG overall and has held six of eight opponents to 17 points or less. The Bulls are holding teams 11 points below their effective season averages.
Using the math on both offense and defense effective averages, my model is showing that we should only expect East Carolina to score about 17 points here. I’m sorry, but I just can’t lay points with a college football team not expected to reach the 20-point mark. I think there is a good reason why 67% of the bets at DK are getting behind USF. No worries, since when a majority of 55% or more of number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past four seasons, that group has gone 172-147-1 ATS (53.9%).
Interestingly, in the Bulls’ most recent win, 30-10 over UAB, they put up just 237 yards of offense. That actually helps them here, since over the last thirteen years, CFB teams that won a conference game despite gaining less than 250 yards of offense have used that victory to build momentum, going 91-70-2 ATS (56.5%) in the follow-up contest. This h2h series has also seen road teams go 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six of the USF-ECU series.
College Football Best Bet: Give me South Florida +1.5 to score the mild upset on Friday at ECU
Nebraska at Illinois (+4.5)
It would seem we are looking at the same old Nebraska: start fast by beating next to no one and start fading when the schedule gets tough. The Cornhuskers go into Friday night’s game at Illinois on a three-game losing streak, and what was an offense averaging 43.6 PPG in the 5-0 start has scored just 13.7 PPG in the last three. Even so, oddsmakers feel they are good enough to be a 4.5-point favorite in Champaign over an Illini team that has won its last three games to move to 5-3.
My numbers indicate Nebraska should be favored, but both my power ratings and effective play-by-play ratings show it should be by 3 or less. With head coach Matt Rhule’s team having just lost at home to Washington, this also becomes a difficult bounce back spot, particularly in a nationally televised Friday night lights tilt: Road favorites coming off a close loss of 10 points or fewer are just 79-114 ATS (40.9%) since 2022.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Illinois +4.5 as the live home dog to Nebraska
Saturday, November 7, 2026
North Carolina at Connecticut (+7)
A rematch of the 2024 Fenway Bowl, won by UConn 27-14. Of course, with both programs having changed coaching staffs since, that result will mean little to nothing when it comes to Saturday’s contest. What might mean something, however, is that UConn’s offense seems to have picked up right where it left off with Jim Mora, Jr. last year by scoring 34.4 PPG this season. That could prove troublesome for North Carolina as the Tar Heels defense has unraveled the last two weeks, giving up 69 points to Miami and Syracuse. The latter is interesting because UNC lost to Syracuse by 1, the same result UConn had versus the Orange a few weeks prior.
UNC’s loss to Miami winds up producing a pair of legit systems for this week: 1) Road favorites coming off a close loss of 10 points or fewer are just 79-114 ATS (40.9%) since 2022 2) Teams coming off a loss at home to a top 10-ranked team are just 146-152 SU and 132-164-2 ATS (44.6%) in the next game since October of 2016. In addition, North Carolina is 3-11-1 (21.4%) ATS in their last 15 as a favorite. This hasn’t been a good team for laying points under head coach Bill Belichick. Hard to see that changing here.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go with Connecticut +7 versus North Carolina
Maryland (+6.5) at Purdue
If one specific trend caught my eye on the team angles this week in the Analytics Report, it was this: Purdue is 1-15 ATS (6.3%) as a home conference favorite since 2018. I know the Boilermakers are slightly improved this season, but they lost each of their last two games, including once as a favorite over Washington, and I have a hard time ignoring that until they prove they are conclusively better. And yes, I do know that Maryland recently fired its head coach and hasn’t won since 9/12, but this is a chance for the Terps to end their long Big Ten skid.
My effective play-by-play numbers say that this line should be -3.3, not -6.5. My power ratings show a green star on the VSiN website, indicating Purdue should only be a -1.8-point favorite. In addition, with Purdue off the 14-point loss at Penn State, head coach Barry Odom’s team unfortunately falls into this system that comes up often: Conference home favorites coming off a double-digit conference loss are just 224-301 ATS (42.9%) since 2016. With 35% of the bets but 66% of the money on Maryland at DraftKings, it seems the sharps may be on the Terps train too.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Maryland +6.5 at Purdue
Texas at Missouri (Total 42.5)
Admittedly, I had Texas winning the national title in my preseason predictions for VSiN. These last two wins over Mississippi’s SEC teams have done a lot to restore the Longhorns’ potential to still do so. This is an underrated spot, though, given the difficulty of the remaining schedule for head coach Steve Sarkisian’s team, and oddsmakers have underscored that with a mere -2.5-point chalk like this. Texas has hit the 20-point mark in all their games this season, and in their two most recent wins, it seems QB Arch Manning may be turning a corner again. If you recall, it took him a bit to get settled last year too, but he finished the season in strong fashion. I expect the Longhorns to score here, and in fact, my effective averages formulas for offense and defense both project them to get about 25.
With that in mind, can we expect over 17 from Missouri? I think so; after all, the Tigers have been a different team offensively at home this season, putting up 38.3 PPG, as compared to 24.8 PPG on the road. There is also an interesting SEC angle that promotes an Over here: Over the total is 22-9 (71%) in SEC non-neutral expected-tight matchups (within a field goal -3 to +3) with totals <= 51.5 since 2021.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll back Over 42.5 in Texas-Missouri for Saturday
Louisville at Georgia Tech (Under 61.5)
I just wrote about a team that scores a lot more points at home than on the road in Missouri. Louisville is in the same boat, scoring 31 PPG in its two true road contests so far, compared to 43.5 PPG in the other six contests. Those road games were against Syracuse and NC State too, not exactly a who’s who of ACC top defenses. At the same time, Georgia Tech’s offense has faltered lately, scoring just 11 points last week on Pitt and just 22 PPG overall in its six contests versus FBS foes. They have clearly missed a beat in 2026 without stud QB Haynes King, regardless of QB Alberto Mendoza’s family pedigree.
Of course, there aren’t many games when bettors will be backing Unders in head coach Jeff Brohm games, but in this case, 75% of bets are on the Over, but 74% of the handle is on the Under. I take that to mean the sharper bets like a lower-scoring tilt. The average college football total has steadied at about 53. In games since the start of the 2022 season where the totals reached 59 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 68-53 (56.2%). There is also this strong ACC angle as icing on the cake for me: Under the total is 32-13-1 (71.1%) in ACC matchups with spreads >= 13 points and totals >= 60.5 since 2016.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go Under 61.5 in Louisville-Georgia Tech
Rutgers at Wisconsin (Total 45.5)
I have a few systems on the Analytics Report this week that went against Wisconsin, particularly because of the ugly 30-0 loss last week at Iowa. That said, the Badgers have been a different animal at home recently compared to away, so I have a hard time pulling the trigger with Rutgers. What I do expect, however, from head coach Luke Fickell’s team this week, is a much stronger defensive effort than we saw a week ago. In Madison, this Badgers’ defense has been elite lately. Quite simply, it has been nearly impossible to score on this defense at home lately. They have allowed 10 points or fewer in all of their last six home games, all wins. Three of those games were against pretty good offenses too.
This week, they host a bottom-tier Big Ten offense in Rutgers, which is 31-13 to the Under (70.5%) in road games since 2018. The fact that Wisconsin is such a hefty favorite too leads me to believe that oddsmakers know that the Scarlet Knights won’t score a whole lot: Big 10 home favorites in the -17 to -30.5 line range with a total of <= 56 have gone Under the total at a 43-21 (67.2%) rate in conference play since 2017. Since the week opened, we have also learned that Fickell is toying with a QB change too this week, potentially opting for freshman Ryan Hopkins in place of transfer Colton Joseph. This game screams of 27-10 or so.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Under 45.5 in Rutgers-Wisconsin
BYU at Utah (-5.5)
I have had so much success with the games that feature the three systems of home-ranked teams stacked that I virtually take them automatically every time they arise. If you were with me last week, you know we benefited from Texas Tech on these angles. Here is that sequence of systems: 1) In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 237-123 SU and 206-145-9 ATS (58.7%). 2) Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 132-34 SU and 99-63-4 ATS (61.1%). And 3) Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 70-30 SU amd 62-35-3 ATS (63.9%) since 2017.
In other words, home-field advantage means everything in these expected competitive battles between top teams. It probably means even more in a heated rivalry like the Holy War, where hosts have won the last three series meetings ATS. Betting at DraftKings is heavy on BYU, but I do believe they are underestimating the HFA here. My effective offense/defense averages project BYU for about 20 points; they show Utah getting over 27, and those numbers don’t account for the Utes being at home.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Utah -5.5 to extend my ranked teams systems records
LA Monroe at Arkansas State (-14.5)
Prior to last year’s unexpected 28-16 win for LA Monroe over Arkansas State, the Red Wolves had won and covered the previous 15 series meetings. That is unprecedented in today’s day and age of teams transforming themselves year after year. That ULM team won three games. This one looks headed for 1-11. What better time to start a new streak for head coach Butch Jones in a big-time revenge game. Speaking of which, a nice system indicates ULM is the ideal revenge fade here: Teams seeking revenge against a team currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been successful, going 234-186 ATS (55.7%) since 2016. Of course, I always want to see some quantitative reason to back a team as well, and my effective offense/defense averages call for a 36-19 type of game. Better team with some added motivation, I’ll take it.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go with Arkansas State to cover the -14.5 versus ULM
Georgia at Ole Miss (+3.5)
Last year, with much of the same attacks on both sides of the ball, Ole Miss gave Georgia all it could handle for three quarters before fading late in a 39-34 loss. The Rebels get the chance for some payback this week, with the Bulldogs coming to Oxford. I was a little concerned last week about potential lookahead for the Rebels, but they shook it off in businesslike fashion and clobbered Auburn. This game at Ole Miss is key in terms of recent head-to-head play, as home teams are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in the last eight non-neutral meetings between UGA and UM.
In addition, in games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 237-123 SU and 206-145-9 ATS (58.7%). What’s more, Ole Miss is 5-0 ATS as a home underdog since 2021. The Bulldogs come off one of their more complete performances of the season, a 27-8 win over Florida. However, in their last three games, they have scored just 23.7 PPG, and the offense is just not clicking.
Their win last week puts them in a precarious position here: Teams coming off a win over a ranked team and playing another ranked team are just 75-109 SU and 78-103-3 ATS (43.1%) since September 2019. Unless they get that offense going, it is going to be very tough to handle QB Trinidad Chambliss & Co., especially with the Rebels playing as highly motivated home dogs. This is also another game where we see 75% of bets on UGA at DraftKings, but 65% of the handle on Ole Miss.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Ole Miss +3.5 to at least threaten the upset versus Georgia
Oklahoma at Florida (Total 44.5)
I was tempted to back Florida here, but Oklahoma has fallen into an interesting pattern of alternating wins and losses this season. Now, that may seem fluky on the surface, but when you consider it being like alternating good performances and bad, it makes more sense from a coaching perspective, as it’s easy to eat up that “rat poison” after wins, as Nick Saban says, and also to get back some motivation after losses.
Instead, I am going to look at the total for this game, as the Gators have lost their way offensively, and OU has allowed just 11.3 PPG in the four wins. What looked like a magical season forthcoming for new head coach Jon Sumrall in Gainesville has disintegrated into simply hopes of clinching a bowl game in the next few weeks. The Gators had scored 53.5 PPG in their first four wins, but have put up just 17.8 PPG since. It’s virtually impossible to look at body-of-work stats for this offense, as recency is clearly more important.
Sharp bettors have caught wind too, with 83% of the handle backing an Under here at DK: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 49 or lower, 72%+ supermajority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 80-63. We also have the Sooners playing into a nice total angle for Saturday: Unranked teams on the road versus a ranked team and playing as favorites or underdogs of 7 or fewer points have gone 95-59 Under the total (61.7%) dating back to October 2016.
College Football Best Bet: Under 44.5 is the play for me in Oklahoma-Florida
Oregon at Ohio State (Total 46.5)
Ohio State is on the verge of missing the 2026 CFP, with a reasonably tough four-game schedule to end the season. Naturally, the Buckeyes were not the same last week in their first game without QB Julian Sayin, in their loss at USC. Replacement Luke Fahey did some good things, but much of the production came from playing from behind for much of the contest. You could tell from that game that head coach Ryan Day wants it to be about his defense. I can assure you that will be the case here against Oregon too, as the Ducks boast a pretty good defense of their own but have not met expectations offensively.
In simpler terms, I think this will be a defensive dogfight, with two elite, talented defenses looking for the edge on teams down to their second QBs. Oregon did have a pretty nice offensive showing on Nebraska last week, but the OSU defense is a totally different animal. Teams coming off a win over a ranked team and playing another ranked team are just 75-109 SU and 78-103-3 ATS (43.1%) since September 2019. These teams are also 90-51 Under the total (63.8%) in these next contests dating back to September of 2021. I look for a game where points are hard to come by. First team to 20 takes it.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Under 46.5 in Oregon-Ohio State
Western Kentucky (+1.5) at Middle Tennessee State
After a 0-3 start to the season while being outscored 157-34, I was ready to write off Western Kentucky for 2026. However, since then, the Hilltoppers have actually shown some life, and with a 2-2 record in Conference USA, they still have a real shot at the league title game. They face both 4-0 teams in the games following this one, starting with Middle Tennessee State. Why is that important? Well, in most experts’ eyes, WKU was a favorite for the CUSA crown. Having that goal still intact is key for motivation.
Which leads me to the question…Is the right team favored in this clash? My power ratings give an emphatic no, with WKU projected there as a 4-point favorite. My effective play-by-play ratings don’t go quite as far, but essentially say the game should be a pick ’em. None of that even considers that WKU is on runs of 7-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in the series with MTSU is 14-2 ATS (87.5%) in the last 16 games as an underdog of <= 3 points.
The Blue Raiders gave up any legit shot at a league title game berth last week by losing to Kennesaw State. Conference home favorites coming off a double-digit conference loss are just 224-301 ATS (42.9%) since 2016. Looking at the betting splits for this one, we see 64% handle on WKU, 62% bets on MTSU. I trust the former a lot more.
College Football Best Bet: It’s Western Kentucky +1.5 at MTSU for me
Missouri State (+4.5) at Florida International
I have Conference USA on my mind here for these most recent two picks, and this one also begs the question…is the right team favored. It’s been an extremely disappointing season for FIU as its offense just can’t seem to get going. In itself, I don’t like laying points with teams that can’t score, but in this case, we also add to it the fact that the Panthers have lost three straight games to fall out of the CUSA title picture. They allowed 27, 26, and 49 points in those games, their three highest totals of the season.
Teams playing in a home conference game after losing and yielding 48+ points to another conference rival the previous game are just 78-108 ATS (41.9%) since 2020. And conference home favorites coming off a double-digit conference loss are just 224-301 ATS (42.9%) since 2016. My effective play-by-play numbers show a theoretical line of FIU -0.8, much of the season I questioned the favorite role. On top of that, 83% of the handle for this game is on the visiting Bears against just 24% of the bets. When a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 179-161-2 ATS (52.6%).
College Football Best Bet: Let’s go with Missouri State +4.5 at FIU
Louisiana Tech (-4.5) at Troy
The Sun Belt seas have split in recent weeks, and there is only one team that remains unbeaten in league play, and that is Louisiana Tech. And what’s more, the Bulldogs seem to be getting better and better as the season gets deeper. They were competitive at the start, going 1-2 SU and 3-0 ATS, planting the seeds for what has now grown into a five-game outright winning streak (4-1 ATS). Teams that have won back-to-back conference games both SU and ATS while being defensively dominant (<12 PPG allowed in those two games), have been tremendous when playing on the road in the next game, 61-35 ATS (63.5%) since 2019.
If you didn’t see, LTU also qualified for that angle last week. This week they travel to face a Troy team coming off a huge upset win over James Madison. Naturally, my first thought is “potential letdown,” since on paper at least, JMU was the team to beat in the Sun Belt prior. Teams playing at home in conference games as dogs of more than 3 points when coming off a huge upset win as a double-digit road underdog have been a play against team, 33-51 ATS (39.3%) since 2010. Add to that an effective play-by-play line edge and this conference system: Sun Belt road favorites in the -3.5 to -10 line range are 74-30 SU and 63-41 ATS (60.6%) in conference play since 2015.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll back red-hot Louisiana Tech -4.5 again at Troy
Boise State at Colorado State (Total 68.5)
There are some very good trends and systems on this week’s Analytics Report that suggest Boise State is due for a huge bounce back game after nearly blowing a 25-point halftime lead to Texas State last week. However, my first instinct said this line seemed a bit high for my blood, and my effective play-by-play lines concurred, showing that the Broncos should be -13.6-point favorites, not -17.5. That said, you won’t get an argument from me should you decide to back Boise here. What I am expecting, however, is a big bounce back from the BSU defense, as the 45 points they allowed in a win become a massive coaching opportunity for head coach Spencer Danielson. His program had not allowed that many points since the ’24 season opener, yet they still won.
The total for this game is set at 68.5. In actuality, Boise is not a high-paced team, ranking 15th in the country in terms of fewest plays per minute run. CSU is fast, but I feel like the expected improved defensive effort from the Broncos will negate that. We also show two strong team tendency angles having me on the side of Under here: 1 ) Boise State is 10-0 to the Under (100%) in their last 10 road regular season finales 2) Colorado State is 18-12-1 to the Under (60%) in Home games since 2022
College Football Best Bet: Against heavy opposite betting action, it’s Under 68.5 in BSU-CSU
Sam Houston State at Jacksonville State (-16.5)
My quantitative numbers for Sam Houston State-Jacksonville State all indicate that this line is very realistic, and oddsmakers didn’t miss when setting the price for the contest. Simply put, this is a feel play for me. SHSU is dead in the water; it just fired its coach a couple of weeks back, and the Bearkats have scored exactly 3 points in three of the last four games. Jacksonville State won five in a row and comes off an outstanding game in which it shut out New Mexico State, holding the Aggies to 29 yards passing and 221 overall. The Gamecocks are one of two teams left unbeaten in Conference USA play. As I said, the number isn’t a bad one from a lines-making perspective. It is a bad one for where these teams are now mentally. JSU is 6-2, and SHSU is 1-7, thus putting this doozy system into play: When there is won-lost record difference of 5+ wins in any game, the better team is on an 89-53 ATS (62.7%) surge since 2016 when the line is not -21 or higher.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll back Jacksonville State -16.5 to take care of biz vs. SHSU
Miami (FL) at Notre Dame (-6.5)
Even before all the Malachi Toney injury news was leaking out for Miami on Wednesday, I was already planning on getting behind Notre Dame on Saturday. For one, I think oddsmakers are laying out what they expect to happen in the price they have set for the contest: Notre Dame -6.5 versus the #1 team in the country. Come on…You should know that Notre Dame is 24-6 ATS (80%) as a single-digit favorite since 2018, as well as 35-18-1 ATS (66%) vs ACC opponents since 2017.
The Irish are also at home, and we know that in games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 237-123 SU and 206-145-9 ATS (58.7%). Of course, there is also the argument that the better defensive team is playing at home. Teams coming off four straight SU wins and now facing a non-conference opponent with a better scoring defense this year have met their match, going just 32-57 SU and 36-51-2 ATS (41.4%) since 2016.
This is not the 2025 Hurricanes’ defense. In fact, in terms of effective yards per play allowed, which does include schedule strength, Notre Dame’s 3.76 ranks 8th in the country; Miami is 40th at 4.55. This may actually have a twinge of defensive mismatch to it, and the better unit is at home in a game it needs to win to maintain sanity in the CFP picture.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll back the Irish -6.5 on Saturday night versus Miami
Fresno State (-2.5) at Utah State
Some games each week stand out to me in terms of how many points each team is expected to score, based on my math models using effective averages. This game is peculiar, since it is no secret that Utah State’s offense is struggling in 2026. Overall, the Aggies aren’t all that bad at 3-5 because of their competitive defense, but against strong opposing defenses like Fresno State’s, it’s tough to see USU mounting much of an attack. In fact, my math models are showing that USU’s offense is expected to score 11.5 points on a FSU-level defense, while the Bulldogs defense is expected to contain an Aggies-level offense to 11.6 points.
These numbers are, of course, before home-field advantage, but let’s just say it’s realistic that Utah State only reaches 14 points here. Are you prepared to back any team playing as a 2.5-point underdog in a situation like that? Me neither, and with Fresno State 29-15 (65.9%) ATS coming off a SU Win since 2021, as well as 17-9 ATS (65.4%) in revenge mode since 2016, I would expect a focused Bulldogs team in what is an important game for them in the Pac-12 title game picture.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll lay the -2.5 points with Fresno State at Utah State
For more Week 10 college football best bets, visit the Week 10 College Football Betting Hub, exclusively on VSiN.com.
