Week 10 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Matt Youmans
Few things in life matter less than the first set of College Football Playoff rankings, but when those rankings were unveiled early this week, many fans were fighting mad; big-name TV talking heads and no-name columnists unleashed angry rants, and Kirk Herbstreit’s dog even barked about the disrespect shown to Ohio State.
Just when it seemed election results might bring America together, the college football rankings pulled everyone apart. The CFP selection committee chairman is Hunter Yurachek, who stumbled through nonsensical answers about why Team B was ranked ahead of Team C. Yurachek is the athletic director at Arkansas, which has a struggling football program, so it’s easy to see why he was put in charge of the committee.
To put things in perspective, No. 1 Miami is a 7.5-point underdog to No. 11 Notre Dame this weekend. I have no problems with the rankings and laugh about this circus every year. The rankings will change next week and again the following week. It’s only worth arguing about the final rankings in December. More importantly, here are my best bets for Week 10:
Texas (-3) at Missouri
With three quality wins (Ohio State, Ole Miss and Tennessee) in their pocket, the Longhorns should be a lock to make the playoff bracket. But they are not a lock because of two losses (Oklahoma and Florida) and three tough road games coming up. Texas quarterback Arch Manning has not been improving, and his surrounding cast is not helping. Trevor Goosby, the team’s top offensive lineman and an NFL first-round prospect, is injured and lost for the season along with running back Hollywood Smothers. The Longhorns managed only 60 rushing yards on 32 carries against Mississippi State last week. Three more of the team’s top players (star wideouts Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo and edge rusher Colin Simmons) are listed as questionable with injuries.
The Tigers, who have blown out Florida and Texas A&M at home, are capable of delivering another upset. A defense that has produced 19 sacks and seven interceptions will put heat on Manning. Missouri running back Jamal Roberts has 1,005 yards while stepping in for Ahmad Hardy, who’s back and ready to roll after suffering a gunshot wound to a leg in the offseason. Hardy is among the SEC’s most talented backs when healthy. It will be important for Austin Simmons, a former Mississippi transfer, to limit mistakes and outplay Manning. Simmons has better numbers (16 touchdown passes, two interceptions) than Manning. While several sportsbooks have this game lined at 2.5, Circa Sports is offering a field goal on the dog.
Best Bet: Missouri +3 (-120)
Brigham Young at Utah (-4.5)
This battle atop the Big 12 standings deserves a prime-time spot, but kickoff will be 10 a.m. local time in Salt Lake City. Utah (8-0) faced a soft schedule before recently posting its most impressive victories over Houston and Cincinnati. The Cougars (7-1) always follow the lead of quarterback Bear Bachmeier, who does almost everything for the offense. Bachmeier could get some help from star running back LJ Martin, who has missed a month with an injury and is expected to return. But this will be mostly about how effective Bachmeier is and if the BYU defensive front can contain the dynamic duo of Utes quarterback Devon Dampier and running back Wayshawn Parker. The Holy War could again come down to the wire — the past two meetings were decided by scores of 24-21 and 22-21.
Best Bet: BYU +4.5
Oregon at Ohio State (-7.5)
It’s time for the Buckeyes (6-2) to show urgency before a playoff spot slips away. While trailing 27-12 in the fourth quarter at USC a week ago, Ohio State’s offense was huddling up and wasting the clock for no apparent reason. It would be a lazy excuse to pin the result, a 30-18 loss, on freshman quarterback Luke Fahey, who played well enough. The play calling by coach Ryan Day and offensive coordinator Arthur Smith needs to be better, the penalties and dropped passes need to get cleaned up, and the defense must be improved. The Buckeyes should bounce back. Fahey, who passed for 260 yards and one late touchdown to Jeremiah Smith, will be more comfortable in his second start. Dylan Raiola passed for 336 yards and three touchdowns to rally the Ducks past Northwestern last week, but it’s doubtful he can do that again in Columbus. I’m not comfortable laying the points, so with this line sitting in perfect teaser territory, I’ll pair this play with another similar favorite.
Best Bet: Ohio State -1.5 with Notre Dame -1.5 on a six-point teaser.
Miami (FL) at Notre Dame (-7.5)
Expectations were sky high for quarterback CJ Carr and the Notre Dame defense this season. Carr has impressive numbers (18 touchdown passes, one interception), but he did not play well in a loss at BYU last month, and the Fighting Irish defense has been disappointing while dealing with some key injuries. This is an opportunity to make things right, and this means everything to Notre Dame, which has circled this game all year. No excuses. The Irish either win or never hear the end of it from the critics.
The Hurricanes have an excuse if they need one because of the absence of speed receiver Malachi Toney, who needed surgery after suffering a high ankle sprain during Wednesday’s practice. Darian Mensah has completed 80.7% of his passes with 25 touchdowns, and Toney has 13 of those touchdowns with 73 receptions. Miami leads the nation in scoring offense (47.6 ppg), with quick throws to Toney triggering the offense and helping Mensah’s high completion percentage. The Hurricanes have defensive holes that will get exposed, as they were a week ago when North Carolina’s Billy Edwards completed 28 of 34 passes for 341 yards and four touchdowns. I’m confident in a Notre Dame win, but covering a big number against the No. 1 team is a lot to ask.
Best Bet: Notre Dame -1.5 with Ohio State -1.5 on a six-point teaser.
Michigan State at Michigan (-14.5)
He’s probably not the next Tom Brady, but freshman dual-threat quarterback Tommy Carr has been a big boost for the Wolverines. Still, prior to facing Rutgers last week, Michigan’s offense produced an average of 15 points in the previous four games. The Spartans are likely making a quarterback change because of an injury to starter Alessio Milivojevic and would go with freshman Kayd Coffman, who may or may not be up to this task. Michigan State coach Pat Fitzgerald’s undermanned team stayed competitive in losses to Notre Dame, UCLA, Illinois and Northwestern, and the same should happen here in a low-scoring, ugly game in Ann Arbor. The past two meetings in this rivalry were decided by seven and 11 points. This line has crossed over 14 due to the Spartans’ lengthy injury report.
Best Bet: Michigan State +14.5
Oklahoma at Florida (-6)
With quarterback John Mateer making a mess of things, Oklahoma fired offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle, but don’t expect a quick fix. On top of the Sooners’ offensive issues, the defense just allowed 42 points and 521 yards in a loss to South Carolina. This could be a get-right spot for the Gators, who have dropped three of four games since blowing out Ole Miss in late September. There are reasons to have more faith in Florida coach Jon Sumrall and offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner, who are going back to quarterback Tramell Jones. The Gators were garbage from the start in last week’s loss to Georgia, but Jones played well in a 27-24 win at Texas and he’s the better option. It would help if running back Jadan Baugh gets back on track. Baugh topped 130 yards rushing in each of the four September games yet has not hit the 100-yard mark since. The Sooners allowed 212 rushing yards last week.
Best Bet: Florida -6
Hawaii (-8.5) at Texas-El Paso
Before a bye, Micah Alejado passed for 323 yards and the Hawaii offense finally exploded for 56 points in a win at Northern Illinois — a team that is slightly superior to UTEP. The Miners are miserable on offense, scoring a total of 45 points in their past five games. Still, it’s difficult for me to lay this many points with a road favorite, so I’ll split one unit on what should not be an offensive shootout at the Sun Bowl in El Paso.
Best Bet: Hawaii -8.5 and Under 49 (half-unit each)
Last week: 3-2 against the spread
For more Week 10 college football best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 10 Betting Hub, exclusively on VSiN.
