College Football Week 10 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
Week 9 was one for the ages for me in college football…the dark ages. Admittedly, I made some pretty bad plays, one of them on a team that would fire its head coach the next day, but having three particularly tough losses mentioned on the bad beats ESPN segment this week was perhaps more than I could bear. After Michigan State and a backup freshman QB rallied for a backdoor touchdown in the final seconds on rival Michigan, one of the country’s best defenses, I was about ready to throw in the towel on college football. Fortunately, the Sunday NFL action picked my spirits up a bit.
That said, my 4-12 ATS mark last week was the worst I’ve had since I started offering best bets for VSiN a few years ago. Where do we go from here? Well, for one, I hit the books again, looking for new systematic data that has been performing well lately and that revolves around ranked teams. I have a couple of plays below from that article I put together this week. For two, I’m going to stick to the grind and try to get back in the black. It was late season a year ago that I made my best run. With a record now of 77-84, I press on with my Week 10 college football best bets.
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 29, 2025
Jacksonville at Middle Tennessee State
Looking to get the bad taste of Week 9 out of my mouth, I will start the week 10 college board a day earlier than I have been by taking a look at this JSU-MTSU Conference USA game for Wednesday night. Jacksonville State comes off an underdog win at home versus Delaware, a decision that snuffed out a four-game ATS losing skid. This is certainly not a team right now that commands the type of betting attention it is getting at DraftKings in the lead-up to the contest, as 87% of the handle and 77% of the bets as of Wednesday afternoon were backing the Gamecocks. If you recall, going back to the start of the 2022 season, when more than 75% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 505-568 ATS (47.1%).
I’m not going to have a whole lot of great things to say about MTSU, but it is a midweek game and the Blue Raiders are at home. Plus, from an effective play-by-play standpoint, that rating metric is indicating that MTSU should only be a +0.4 point underdog here. With the line having dumped from +6 to +3.5 despite heavy action on JSU, give me the home dog.
College Football Week 10 Best Bet: I’ll start Week 10 with Middle Tennessee State +3.5 vs. JSU
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 30, 2025
Marshall at Coastal Carolina
If you look back at the preseason work I did, you would have seen me dogging Marshall constantly after what happened to the program since last year’s Sun Belt title game win. Deservedly so. However, new head coach Tony Gibson has picked up the pieces faster than I could have ever foreseen in guiding a team that was a stability zero score to a 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS mark through seven games.
Now, they play on the road on a Thursday night at Coastal Carolina, a team that has put back-to-back wins together after underperforming at the outset. The Chanticleers come off a huge 45-37 upset win over Appalachian State, a game in which they were 10.5-point underdogs. That result doesn’t figure to help them here, as teams playing at home in conference games as dogs of more than 3 points when coming off a huge upset win as a double-digit road underdog have been a play against team, 29-49 ATS (37.2%) since 2010. This road chalk line also fits into a nice Sun Belt Conference system that shows SBC road favorites in the -3.5 to -10 line range are 64-27 SU and 55-36 (60.4%) ATS since 2015.
College Football Week 10 Best Bet: Give me a now stable Marshall team to cover the -5.5 in Myrtle Beach
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 31, 2025
Sam Houston State at Louisiana Tech
Sam Houston State hasn’t won a game all season, covering the point spread just once in those seven tries. Head coach Phil Longo’s famed Air Raid offense hasn’t lived up to the billing, much like it didn’t when he was OC at Wisconsin. The Bearkats are scoring just 17 PPG, and putting up about 5.8 points fewer than their opponents allow on average. That could be a real problem here at Louisiana Tech, as the Bulldogs’ defense is the best in Conference USA, yielding just 18.7 PPG. Louisiana Tech has lost back-to-back games and probably is out of CUSA contention now, but those two defeats were to teams who boast an 8-1 league mark right now. This is a perfect bounce-back opportunity against the weak foe.
It is also a revenge spot for head coach Sonny Cumbie’s team, as they lost 9-3 last year at SHSU. There are a pair of revenge systems backing them here: 1) College football teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins on the season than their opponent have been very successful, going 108-20 SU and 83-40-5 ATS (67.5%) since 2016. 2) Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been successful, going 227-177 ATS (56.2%) since 2016.
College Football Week 10 Best Bet: Give me Louisiana Tech -16.5 to get some payback on SHSU
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 1, 2025
Louisiana Lafayette at South Alabama
Louisiana and South Alabama go into their matchup on Saturday with identical 2-6 records. The host Jaguars are off one of those two wins last week, a 38-31 decision over Georgia State. Both teams also have just a single Sun Belt win. However, Louisiana’s last three conference games, all losses, came against the league’s three remaining undefeated teams, Troy, Southern Miss, and James Madison. The Ragin’ Cajuns finished within 12 points of all three opponents. Which leads me to ask if the right team is favored here? And if not, why is 89% of the handle and 78% of the bets backing South Alabama?
This all seems a bit backwards to me, and there are a pair of trends that increase my confusion. First, South Alabama is 18-38 (32.1%) ATS coming off a SU Win since 2014. Second, a much better USA team won the head-to-head matchup last year 24-22, and Louisiana Lafayette is 15-10 SU and 18-7 ATS (72%) in revenge mode since 2016. South Alabama is also 1-4 ATS as chalk this season.
College Football Week 10 Best Bet: I’ll go with Louisiana +4 at South Alabama
Oklahoma at Tennessee
This week’s Oklahoma-Tennessee matchup sees a convergence of a few of the best things I like to utilize in picking games each week in college football. Above anything else, it is one of those famous ranked vs. ranked contests that boasts the three-sequence series for backing the home teams. 1) In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 211-106 SU and 184-124-9 ATS (59.7%). 2) Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 122-28 SU and 91-55-4 ATS (62.3%). 3) Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 63-25 SU and 56-29-3 ATS (65.9%) since 2017. I have relied on this series religiously over the past few seasons.
Also, speaking of ranked teams, Oklahoma comes off the home loss to Ole Miss and now must face this recent ominous betting angle: Teams coming off a loss at home to a top 10-ranked team are just 132-139 SU and 119-150-2 ATS (44.2%) in the next game since October of 2016. Finally, this is one of the games that appears on this week’s top 15 Effective Play-by-Play variances off the actual line, with that metric showing that Tennessee should be an 8.6-point favorite here.
College Football Week 10 Best Bet: Give me high-scoring Tennessee (-3) at home
Notre Dame at Boston College
At this point in time, I actually find myself looking for reasons why I shouldn’t play Notre Dame on any given week. Quite frankly, I personally believe that the Irish are as complete a team as anyone. For this contest versus Boston College, they are aided by two different motivational factors. One, they are rested off a bye week. Two, they have seen reassurances from head coach Marcus Freeman that he will be in South Bend for the long haul, having rebuffed advances from both Florida and LSU.
Of course, one of the reasons that Freeman and ND have been so good lately is that they always bring it away from South Bend: Notre Dame is 31-10 ATS (75.6%) in Road/Neutral games in the last six seasons. I always like to consult my metrics, of course, when handicapping games, and according to my new rating set, the Effective Play-by-Play Ratings, the Irish should actually be favored by 36.1, not 28.5. Boston College has lost seven in a row and blew a good upset chance last week vs. Louisville. I don’t see the Golden Eagles getting another upset chance.
College Football Week 10 Best Bet: I’ll lay the 28.5 points with Notre Dame
Purdue at Michigan
Trying to look past my angle with Michigan blowing the cover last week at Michigan State, I just don’t feel the Wolverines are the type of team to get behind when laying 20+ points. Since Big Ten play opened five games ago, they have scored just 24.4 PPG, a figure that is less than a TD more than Purdue averages in league play. Can the Boilermakers score points on this tough Michigan defense, however? That is the real question here. Considering that head coach Barry Odom’s team put up 30 on Notre Dame, and 27 on Illinois, I would say you could at least expect a couple touchdowns from them.
My Effective Play-by-play Ratings underscore the true difference between these teams at this point, as that metric says that Michigan should only be favored by 15.1 points. As it is, Purdue has a respectable 13-5 ATS record in its last 18 games as a Big Ten dog of 20+ points. The point spread does figure to be the great equalizer in this case, since ranked home favorites of more than 14 points are 337-26 SU but just 158-201-4 ATS (44%) versus unranked conference opponents since October 2015.
College Football Week 10 Best Bet: Let’s trust Purdue to keep this one closer than +21.5
Army at Air Force
This game is a battle between underperforming service academy teams. When I see a matchup of teams that are probably disappointed with where they stand currently, my immediate reaction is to look for reasons not to lay the points. I have a few in this case. First, for me, it is Air Force that has been the bigger disappointment, sitting at 2-5 while allowing 37.3 PPG. The Falcons were generally picked in the top half of the Mountain West Conference at the outset.
Army was facing a rebuilding season after graduating a bunch of seniors from their 12-2 team of a year ago. The Knights have picked up their play recently, however, and come off a near-miss upset of Tulane. My strength ratings unanimously indicate that the wrong team is favored here too, as my power ratings show Army -2.9, my effective strength ratings show Army -1.2, and my Bettors Ratings show Army -1.0. If all that weren’t enough, underdogs are on a 9-0 ATS streak and Under the total has converted in 12 straight in the Air Force-Army rivalry.
College Football Week 10 Best Bet: I’ll back Army as the 1.5-point underdog at Air Force
Vanderbilt at Texas
To be quite honest, I was grateful to get a win last week with Vanderbilt against Missouri, but I feel that the injury to the Tigers’ starting QB in the third quarter is the only reason I got it. At this point, I’m a bit concerned that the rigorous nature of Vanderbilt’s recent schedule is finally catching up. This game in Austin will be the fourth in a row in which the Commodores are facing a ranked team. I found out this week that teams coming off a win over a ranked team and playing another ranked team are just 61-82 SU and 61-79-3 ATS (43.4%) since September 2019.
We already knew that in games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 211-106 SU and 184-124-9 ATS (59.7%). The Longhorns should be in a solid state of mind here, coming off a miraculous come-from-behind, season-saving OT win in Starkville last Saturday. That leads us into another solid angle in play for this week: Ranked teams coming off a close win of 7 points or fewer where they didn’t cover the point spread, are on a 212-51 SU and 150-111-2 ATS (57.5%) surge when favored in the next game since October of 2015. I think this game, heading into a bye week, gives Texas a shot to get back deep into the CFP conversation.
College Football Week 10 Best Bet: Give me Texas -2.5 to take care of business versus Vanderbilt
Cincinnati at Utah
Having won seven straight games while scoring 41.3 PPG, it certainly feels like Cincinnati is in the throes of a special season, the type that galvanizes a team to play together week in and week out. When that team becomes a pretty hefty underdog to a conference opponent, in my eyes, they become a pretty attractive wager.
It would seem that much of the DraftKings betting base thinks along those same lines, as 76% are currently backing the Bearcats for their trip to Utah. In most cases, that’s a negative, but when a majority of 55% or more of the number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past three seasons, this majority group has gone 129-106 ATS (54.9%). This suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy. If there is any concern here, it’s that Cincinnati hasn’t yet played any of the true upper-echelon teams of the Big 12. I personally believe that with as well as they’ve played in this winning streak, and boasting a 2-0 ATS record as an underdog so far, that a highly competitive effort is the least we should expect.
College Football Week 10 Best Bet: Give me Cincinnati +10 as a dangerous live underdog
Virginia at California
I backed Virginia last week in its game against North Carolina, only for the Cavaliers to barely survive a nice upset attempt by the Tar Heels. Having won their last three games by 3, 2, and 1 point(s), perhaps the pressure of being ranked and facing hungry opponents each week is finally getting to them? Well, this particular system that I discovered this week would argue otherwise, and that we should expect a big bounce back against Cal. Ranked teams coming off a close win of 7 points or fewer where they didn’t cover the point spread, are on a 212-51 SU and 150-111-2 ATS (57.5%) surge when favored in the next game since October of 2015.
The Golden Bears also gave me one of my losses last week, as they played for three of the four quarters, at times looking overmatched by Virginia Tech, and at other times looking amazing. That type of inconsistency is hard to get behind after a disappointing loss. Plus, if you look at the ratings side of things, my Effective Play-by-Play Ratings indicate that Virginia should be a 9.4-point favorite here, not just 4.5.
College Football Week 10 Best Bet: I’ll side with Virginia -4.5 to finally get a decisive win again.
Texas Tech at Kansas State
A few weeks ago, I suggested that Kansas State’s best football seemed to still be coming, and the Wildcats have responded with back-to-back underdog wins over TCU and Kansas. In all, KSU has won its last four games against the spread as it gets ready to host Texas Tech as a TD underdog. That is a big deal historically, since Kansas State boasts a 19-6 ATS home dog record over the last 15 years.
Very few teams can come to Manhattan and win handily, and that is what it would take for Texas Tech to cover a 7-point road chalk line. The Red Raiders have not played K-State well recently either, as Kansas State is 12-1 SU and 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 head-to-head games with TTU. In the end, the 7 points feel like a bit of a stretch to me in that my power ratings say it should be 6, and my effective strength ratings call for 3.8.
College Football Week 10 Best Bet: Give me Kansas State (+7) as the home dog to Texas Tech
Arkansas State at Troy
A pair of teams riding impressive win streaks get together at Troy this week, as the Trojans welcome in Arkansas State. Of the two teams, however, I would argue wholeheartedly that the current run by Troy is far more significant. Head coach Gerad Parker’s team has taken off in his second season, boasting a 6-2 record and having scored 37.8 PPG in its last four outings. They seemingly continue to build weekly on a recent trend that finds Troy on a 19-4 ATS run in Sun Belt play when coming off a win.
Arkansas State has won three games in a row to snuff out what was a four-game losing skid prior, but those three wins came against teams that have combined for a 2-10 record in league play so far. What’s more, the Red Wolves have really struggled on the road offensively in 2025, scoring 16.5 PPG in four outings against 30.8 at home. My effective play-by-play ratings also tell the story of two different tiered teams, as that metric suggests that Troy should be a 12.6 point favorite here, not laying just 7. I tend to agree.
College Football Week 10 Best Bet: Let’s lay the 7 points with red-hot Troy at home
Navy at North Texas
The North Texas offense has been on a massive roll lately and anyone stepping out on a limb and going against them would have to be crazy, right? It certainly wouldn’t be a team like Navy, who is 2-5 ATS, that would put a scare into the Mean Green, would it? Well, I might have to argue the merits of the Midshipmen here, as they have been one of the best road underdogs in the country in recent years, going 7-1 ATS in their last eight.
This will be the first time this season that head coach Brian Newberry’s team plays as an underdog, and that has as much to do with the underwater ATS record as anything. Speaking of significant trends, Navy is also on a 31-9 ATS run in conference games when coming off a home win. As I said, the UNT attack has been going bonkers lately, including putting up 54 points and 754 yards on Charlotte last week. Well, according to this particular system, it puts them in a difficult spot for coming up with another such effort good enough to cover the Vegas number vs. Navy: FBS teams that gain 735 or more yards offensively in their prior game have gone just 31-47 ATS (39.7%) in the follow-up contest since 2012. This game has high stakes, and I don’t think the price matches it.
College Football Week 10 Best Bet: I’ll back Navy +6.5 to be VERY competitive against North Texas
Oklahoma State at Kansas
This past week, I made a mistake with Oklahoma State that I almost immediately regretted upon watching the first quarter: expecting them to score points against a pretty stout Texas Tech defense. I called for an Over in the game, and while the Red Raiders did their part by scoring 42 points, my fears were realized when the Cowboys posted a goose egg. That said, I’m going back to the well with another over wager this week on OSU, against a team with a penchant for playing such contests, as Kansas is 41-25-1 (62.1%) Over the total overall since 2019.
As major backing for the play, I am again recalling the system I cited last week, although it has a loss added to it now, that being that Big 12 home favorites of 21 points or more have seen totals go Over at 24-11 (68.6%) rate since 2016. Former head coach Mike Gundy’s team had little to no trouble putting up points on the Jayhawks, as they averaged 44 PPG in the last nine head-to-head meetings. I also expect QB Jalon Daniels and the KU offense to take full advantage of its chance to clobber the OSU defense.
College Football Week 10 Best Bet: Give me Over 57.5 in OSU-Kansas
USC at Nebraska
There’s a big game in the Big Ten this week that very few people are looking closely at, and it comes from Lincoln, where Nebraska is hosting USC in a battle of high-scoring offenses. In my opinion, USC is the far more tested team, making its effective numbers much superior to that of head coach Matt Rhule’s team. In fact, the Trojans’ effective offense and defense numbers in terms of PPG right now are 49.6/12.8. The Cornhuskers’ numbers are worse in both regards, 43.8/16.9. Those figures set up USC as they should be a 7.2-point favorite here, so the road chalk line we are looking at is justified. However, if you examine the stats from an effective play-by-play standpoint, those numbers show that USC should be about a 15.9-point favorite.
Head coach Lincoln Riley’s team has also had an extra week to regroup from its 34-24 loss at Notre Dame, a game in which they were very competitive but turned the ball over three times. Well, from a system standpoint, that loss puts them in a good position here, since ranked teams coming off of double-digit losses have responded nicely of late, going 58-22 SU and 51-28-1 ATS (64.6%) in the next game since November of 2021. Lincoln also isn’t what it used to be, as Nebraska is just 7-16-3 (30.4%) ATS at home in the last 26.
College Football Week 10 Best Bet: Let’s ride USC as a 6.5-point favorite at Nebraska
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