College Football Week 11 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
Week 10 was a bit of a disappointment for me in that I managed to turn a 7-4 start into an 8-8 finish with my five night game picks floundering. What’s worse is that it felt like none of the four losses in that grouping ever stood a chance. In any case, it was a big improvement on the prior week and has my season record sitting at 85-92 ATS (48%). I’m still just one big week away from getting myself back to even or above. Hopefully, that is coming here this week. There is a ton to digest on this week’s VSiN College Football Analytics Report, so hopefully my discernment skills were in their heightened state as I put together this list of Best Bets for Week 11.
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 5, 2025
Kent State at Ball State
Just an FYI out of the gate, as I introduce my best bets for this week with a little bit of MAC-tion, I’m going to do my best to keep the writeups a little shorter this week. This one, in particular, as you might see it shortly before kickoff. In any case, the point spread for this mid-week doozy between Kent State and Ball State, a matchup of teams with three wins apiece, is set at BSU -3. The Golden Flashes have not won a road game since the finale of 2022, a streak of 18 straight losses. When the line came out, we saw it sitting at just -1.5, thus we were being led to believe that this is where that streak might end. Why? Well, since, the line has climbed as it should, since I don’t have a single rating that says this game should be closer to 3.3 points. In particular, my power ratings indicate BSU -4.8. On top of that, the Cardinals have beaten KSU five straight times at home.
College Football Week 11 Best Bet: Give me Ball State -3 in Wednesday night MAC-tion
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 6, 2025
Texas-San Antonio at South Florida
You have to wonder what a loss like the one USF suffered two weeks ago at Memphis does to a team’s psyche. Prior to that, the Bulls were being looked at as a probable CFP Group of 5 rep. For me, it wasn’t just the losing, it was how they lost, via a complete fourth-quarter meltdown. Now, they will look to respond against a UTSA team that just throttled Tulane at home 48-26. By the looks of this ranked team system, it won’t be easy for USF: Ranked teams coming off a close loss of 7 points or fewer and playing an unranked team are 114-29 SU but just 58-81-4 ATS (41.7%) since December of 2015. It doesn’t seem like the bettors at DK are giving UTSA much shot here, with 93% of the money and 76% of the bets in on USF. That’s perfect: me thinking the exact opposite of a very public game.
College Football Week 11 Best Bet: Give me UTSA +13.5 at South Florida
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 7, 2025
Tulane at Memphis
Quite frankly, I’m a little surprised by what we’ve seen from Tulane this season, as I expected them to be a top-of-the-line CFP contender for the Group of 5. What we haven’t seen from them, however, is great offensive play. That was certainly expected when the Green Wave landed Jake Retzlaff when he was available after his troubles at BYU. Tulane has scored just 26.9 PPG this season after averaging 35 PPG last year. Here, they take on a Memphis team that has been very good defensively, allowing just 19.2 PPG and holding teams 12.2 below their season averages. If you’re doing the math, that would put Tulane on a pace to get just 14 in this game. Even still, 95% of the money on this contest is on the Over side of the ledger. I don’t buy it, particularly with the higher stakes of this contest, with the winner back on track to get into the AAC title game. Plus, with Memphis now ranked, this totals play will be backed by a nice system: Unranked teams on the road versus a ranked team and playing as favorites or underdogs of 7 or fewer points have gone 85-55 Under the total (60.7%) dating back to October 2016.
College Football Week 11 Best Bet: Let’s go Under 54.5 in a hard-fought Tulane-Memphis tilt
Northwestern at USC
The Friday night Northwestern-USC tilt is the ultimate clash of styles, with the Wildcats looking for a slugfest type of game and the Trojans looking to open it up. I’m going to side on the latter side of the total, as totals in the low 50s are very rare for head coach Lincoln Riley’s team at home. In fact, it’s been nine home games since the Trojans equaled this current total of 50.5, and that was against Wisconsin last season, a 38-21 decision. Going back even further and looking at USC home games with totals of less than 60, Over the total is on an 11-3 run. Overall, USC is 32-16 ATS (66.7%) Over the total in the last three seasons. Northwestern has gotten better offensively since the season began, and has put up 26 PPG in its last four games. USC has slowed recently since busting out of the gate, but even still, the Trojans have scored 27 PPG in their last four against some pretty stout defensive teams (Nebraska, Notre Dame, Michigan, Illinois). Riley’s team hasn’t been at home since October 11th. I expect a big offensive outburst back in the home digs.
College Football Week 11 Best Bet: I’ll go Over 50.5 in the Northwestern-USC Friday night clash
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 8, 2025
Charlotte at East Carolina
It’s sort of hard to believe, but 5-7 Charlotte beat 8-5 East Carolina last year, 55-24. While the coach is different for the 49ers this year, you have to believe that ECU head coach Blake Harrell will be more than thrilled to get some payback this year on the struggling 49ers and new head coach Tim Albin. It’s been a nightmarish first season for Albin at Charlotte, as his team stands at 1-7 while allowing 37.3 PPG. That makes them a prime opponent for the revenge-minded Pirates: Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been successful, going 228-177 ATS (56.3%) since 2016. Plus, college football teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins on the season than their opponent have been very successful, going 109-20 SU and 84-40-5 ATS (67.7%) since 2016. No worries about the huge line and the public backing at DK either, since contrary to popular belief, majority handle bettors have been very good when getting behind huge home favorites, specifically those favored by 27.5 points or more. Typically, I would fear this as a prototypical public bet, but these groups are 60-40 ATS (60%) over the last three seasons.
College Football Week 11 Best Bet: I’m good with laying the 28 points with East Carolina
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina
I lost last week going against Coastal Carolina, but I’d probably play the game 10 more times if I had to. Marshall was moving the ball at will on the Chanticleers but suddenly got the turnover virus, and eventually gave the ball away five times in losing 44-27. Losing with a team that gains 432 yards and 6.2 yards per rush is unusual, I would think. That said, I think Georgia State is getting some benefit on the line this week off of that result. The Panthers are a 7.5-point underdog when most of what I have in terms of metrics says the line should be 6 points or less. In fact, my Effective Play-by-Play Ratings show that GSU should actually be favored by 4.5 points. Of course, I also have some nice team tendencies and a system to go along with that. Georgia State is 21-12-1 (63.6%) ATS in the last 34 road/neutral games, and on a solid road Sun Belt run of 15-5 ATS. Plus, having been off last week, teams like GSU, playing as conference road dogs of more than 7 points after not having played since 14 days ago are on a 148-115 ATS (56.3%) surge since 2010.
College Football Week 11 Best Bet: Georgia State looks like a potential live underdog at +7.5
Colorado at West Virginia
Colorado is off two massive losses, by 35 to Arizona, and 46 to Utah. West Virginia comes off its biggest win of the season, a 45-35 upset of previously ranked Houston. So, why would I take the Buffaloes on the road at WVU in a game with a line less than a touchdown? Well, I have three reasons. For one, Colorado has had a recent history of bouncing back from losses under Coach Prime: Colorado is 11-3 ATS (78.6%) following a SU loss in the last two seasons. For two, head coach Sanders has finally made the move I have been waiting for, calling on freshman phenom QB Julian Lewis, a five-star recruit, to take over the struggling offense. There is talent around him; this team just needed a spark to get it going, and Lewis could be that spark. And third, this is one of the biggest public plays of the week at DraftKings, and why not? They love fading Sanders. As of Wednesday, West Virginia was backed by 94% of the handle, 83% of the bets. For a team that had lost five straight games prior to last week, it feels like a trap.
College Football Week 11 Best Bet: Give me Colorado +6.5 in Morgantown
Syracuse at Miami (FL)
I’m sorry, but for all the lofty expectations regarding QB Carson Beck transferring to Miami, he has not proven to be even close to what Cam Ward was in running the offense. Last year’s Hurricanes scored a nation’s best 43.9 PPG, topping the 50-point mark five times. This year, they average 11.6 PPG fewer and have yet to reach 50. That in itself makes them a tough candidate to lay 28.5 points with in any contest, let alone a conference game against a team that beat the better version last year. Teams looking to avenge outright losses where they were double-digit favorites have struggled, going just 114-126 ATS (47.5%) since 2016. Beck & Co. will be looking to pick themselves back up after last week’s loss to SMU. However, ranked teams coming off a close loss of 7 points or fewer and playing an unranked team are 114-29 SU but just 58-81-4 ATS (41.7%) since December of 2015. Not only that, but ranked home favorites of more than 14 points are 339-26 SU but just 159-202-4 ATS (44%) versus unranked conference opponents since October 2015. The Orange are struggling since losing starting QB Steve Angeli for the season, but they should get some motivation from this huge spread.
College Football Week 11 Best Bet: I’ll take Syracuse (+28.5) to give Miami a solid effort
Ohio State at Purdue
Ohio State came out on top of the first CFP rankings Tuesday night, not too much of a surprise since the Buckeyes are the defending national champions and are undefeated through eight games. That said, the line for this week’s contest versus Purdue seems a bit out of whack from recent action, probably because 95% of the money has been on OSU in early action at DraftKings. That is never a good thing for a huge road favorite, and considering that head coach Ryan Day’s team was a 24.5-point favorite in its last road game against a lesser Wisconsin team, I find this line to be overpriced somewhat. Plus, even with all that money on OSU, the line has dropped from -29.5 to -28.5. For the record, Purdue has a respectable 14-5 ATS record in its last 19 games as Big Ten dog of 20+ points, and comes off a game in which it gave OSU rival Michigan fits. Plus, with the Boilermakers heading to Washington next, this pretty nice system will be in play: teams playing in the middle game(s) of what winds up being 3+ straight games versus ranked opponents have been quite successful, going 91-74 SU and 99-64-2 ATS (60.7%) dating back to November of 2015.
College Football Week 11 Best Bet: I’ll take Purdue +28.5 in a very difficult cover spot for #1 OSU
Wake Forest at Virginia
If you’re picking up on any consistent tone this week with my early best bet writeups, it’s that I’m going against some of the very heavy public plays on the board. Well, this total for Wake Forest-Virginia is another one getting heavy attention from DraftKings bettors, with 81% handle and 80% bets on the Over. I’m trying to figure out why since both teams seem to have hit a rut in recent games offensively. They have also played three straight head-to-head games in Charlotteville well below the posted total numbers, with Unders winning by 17, 25, and 11 points. The Demon Deacons have scored 20 points the last two games, while Virginia has put up 31, 17, and 22 since averaging 43 PPG in their first six. And 7 of last week’s points came on a last-minute, needless TD interception return. The tight point spread for this game (UVA -6.5) also has me looking at this betting system: Unranked teams on the road versus a ranked team and playing as favorites or underdogs of 7 or fewer points have gone 85-55 Under the total (60.7%) dating back to October 2016.
College Football Week 11 Best Bet: I’ll go Under 48.5 in Wake Forest-Virginia on Saturday
Georgia at Mississippi State
Naturally, with Georgia seemingly barely surviving one upset attempt after another, and Mississippi State having won two games as underdogs and boasting a 7-1 ATS record, this game in Starkville is going to be looked at as a very dangerous one for head coach Kirby Smart’s team. However, I see it as an opportunity for his Bulldogs to get things right. By preseason standards, this game would be their biggest talent mismatch in SEC play. It is not priced accordingly. I’m not saying this is a talent mismatch, but the point spread now (-8.5) is off over 10 points from what it would have been in Week 1. Georgia, of course, comes off the 24-20 win over rival Florida, which could have been more if not for QB Gunnar Stockton giving himself up at the 1-yard line in the final minute to run out the clock. As such, ranked teams coming off a close win of 7 points or fewer where they didn’t cover the point spread, are on a 214-51 SU and 152-111-2 ATS (57.8%) surge when favored in the next game since October of 2015. We also know that Georgia is 24-16 (60%) ATS in Road/Neutral games since 2020. The upset win last week over Arkansas puts the other Bulldogs in a precarious spot for this week, since Mississippi State is on a 0-8 ATS skid in conference play when coming off an upset win. With 63% of the DK handle on MSU, I shudder when too many people call for an upset.
College Football Week 11 Best Bet: I’ll lay the 8.5 points with Georgia in Starkville
Texas A&M at Missouri
It seems that most of the college football experts across the country have written off Missouri after the Tigers lost QB Beau Pribula for the season to injury in their loss at Vanderbilt. For anyone who saw that game, you know that Mizzou didn’t miss a beat with backup Matt Zollers in. Truthfully, Pribula, while a loss in terms of stability, didn’t give this team a whole lot more than what Zollers should, as the latter is actually the higher-rated recruit. Plus, what makes this team very good is its defense, as it has not allowed anyone over 31 points and is yielding 16.8 PPG on average. That, by itself, should make them a dangerous home dog. Of course, by now, we all know that in games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are 213-107 SU and 185-126-9 ATS (59.5%). A&M has been on a roll, mostly offensively lately, but Missouri will be the best defensive team they have faced. Plus, Texas A&M is 6-12 SU and 5-12-2 ATS on the road since 2021. I expect Missouri to be in this game for the entirety. It would seem that DraftKings does too, since the line has moved down despite 2/3 backing on the road favorites.
College Football Week 11 Best Bet: I’ll back Missouri +6.5 hosting Texas A&M
Auburn at Vanderbilt
I just brought this point up in the Texas A&M-Missouri writeup, but it should catch your eye, too, when you see heavy action on one team on the DK betting splits, but the line is moving the other way. It mostly happens with bettors backing favorites, such as in this case, with 80% of the handle and 88% of the bets on Vanderbilt, but the line dropped from -7 to -6.5. Of course, the line was curious even before studying the action and the movement. Why is Auburn, unranked, having lost five of six games, and just firing its coach, less than a TD underdog on the road to one of the college football world’s favorite upstart darlings this season? Perhaps oddsmakers know that some of the air has been let out of the Commodores’ balloon after last week’s narrow loss at Texas. Perhaps they suspect a letdown from QB Diego Pavia & Co. after a stretch of games against Alabama, LSU, Missouri, and Texas. Or perhaps they are aware that ranked teams coming off a close loss of 7 points or fewer and playing an unranked team are 114-29 SU but just 58-81-4 ATS (41.7%) since December of 2015.
College Football Week 11 Best Bet: I’ll take Auburn as a sneaky road 6.5-point underdog at Vanderbilt
Texas State at Louisiana Lafayette
To me, road favorites in college football have to meet certain criteria, most notably being dominant on either side of the football. Being terrible on either side should disqualify. Well, one of the worst defenses in FBS will be playing as road chalk this weekend at a team it was generally projected below at the outset of the season. They have lost five of six games overall and are riding a six-game ATS losing skid to boot. Oh, and did I mention that the road favorite has lost 12 straight games in head-to-head play while going 1-11 ATS? Well, the teams in question are Texas State and Louisiana, with the Bobcats somehow set up as 2.5-point road favorites. Now granted, they do score a lot of points under head coach GJ Kinne, but they have also yielded 42.8 PPG in their last four-game losing skid. Louisiana is also underperforming its early-season expectations, but its only three league losses were to teams with a combined 13-1 SBC mark at this point.
College Football Week 11 Best Bet: I’ll take Louisiana +2.5 to pull the so-called upset on Texas State
Washington at Wisconsin
Wisconsin is making baby steps back to being competitive again and the effort at Oregon a couple weeks ago stands as proof. Naturally, they will need to do a lot more, particularly offensively, to have a shot at beating Washington on Saturday. The trends do give the Badgers a chance, since Washington is 1-9 ATS (10%) in road/neutral games and 3-8 (27.3%) following outright wins since 2024. Plus, with Wisconsin facing Indiana next week, this angle will be in play: Teams playing in the middle game(s) of what winds up being 3+ straight games versus ranked opponents have been quite successful, going 91-74 SU and 99-64-2 ATS (60.7%) dating back to November of 2015. That said, I just can’t get myself to trust head coach Luke Fickell’s team to get it done. As such, I am going to be looking at a rare Over for Wisconsin. The number is climbing (44.5 to 45.5) and 94% of the handle, 76% of the bets is on the Over side. What do these bettors also know? Well, since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 46.5 or lower, 72%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 157-127 (55.3%). This system improved its win percentage in ’24 (57.8%). This does not produce a ton of plays here in the grand scheme, but the more public option of the number of bets has been pretty good when going against the grain. Wisconsin has scored 10 points or fewer in five straight games and mega money is on the Over? Seems fishy. I’ll go against the grain, too.
College Football Week 11 Best Bet: Give me Over 45.5 in Wisconsin-Washington
UNLV at Colorado State
We have another road favorite here that seemingly can’t stop a nosebleed, as UNLV goes into Colorado State laying 4.5 points despite having allowed 144 points in its last three outings. Not only that, but a barrage of money at DraftKings in on the Runnin’ Rebels (87% handle, 86% bets) hasn’t stopped the line from plummeting from -6 to -4.5. It feels as if the book is asking you to put more and more money on head coach Dan Mullen’s defenseless team. I’ll give Mullen this…his team is explosive and fun to watch. It just doesn’t pay the bills, having lost three straight ATS. If there’s any concern about how these teams do against one another, well, Colorado State is 9-2 ATS in the ast 11 head-to-head games with UNLV, including seven straight covers when hosting the Rebels
College Football Week 11 Best Bet: Colorado State +4.5 is my play versus UNLV
Nebraska at UCLA
There was a peculiar power rating difference for this game between my numbers and the actual line. Now granted, I know that Nebraska QB Dylan Raiola was knocked out of the game last week versus USC and won’t play this week. However, I already backed him out of the ratings before the line came out. Even still, my PR’s have the wrong team favored in this game, by a significant margin in fact. My numbers show the Cornhuskers should be favored by 4.1 points, my bettors’ ratings show NEB -4.0. If you’re a fan of my new Effective Play-by-Play ratings, those metrics show these teams as virtually even. However, one of the more prominent reasons I will be backing head coach Matt Rhule’s team here in LA is that this game seems to be priced as if the Bruins are still riding that post-head coach Deshaun Foster momentum. A few weeks ago, they were sloppy in a 3-point win at Maryland. Then two weeks ago, they were clobbered 56-6 by Indiana. That momentum is gone, and teams playing at home in conference games and coming off a blowout loss by more than 45 points are just 48-75 ATS (39%) since 2010.
College Football Week 11 Best Bet: I’ll take Nebraska (+1.5) to get a big win on the road at UCLA
San Diego State at Hawaii
It’s said that defense travels better than offense. In which case, a team with a dominant defense should be able to rely on that strength even in the most difficult of travel circumstances. Well, a trip to Hawaii seems pleasant for the average traveler, but it is somewhat difficult for a college football team on a week-to-week routine. Historically, that hasn’t been a problem for San Diego State, as the Aztecs have thrived in their recent trips to the Island, going 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six visits. They are one of the few teams that have been able to cut into Hawaii’s 15-2-2 ATS (88.2%) record as a home underdog in conference games since 2020. The Warriors have been pretty good this season, winning six of nine games and scoring 39.3 PPG in their last four. This is why I am curious that oddsmakers feel confident in their line, SDSU -7 and why bettors are getting behind it. I think there is a sense that the Aztecs’ defense, allowing 10 PPG and holding teams 14 points below their averages, will be Hawaii’s kryptonite. My Effective Play-by-Play Ratings also tell a story of SDSU having little trouble in this case, indicating the line should/could be -17.4.
College Football Week 11 Best Bet: I’ll back San Diego State -7 to wrap up the Saturday action
For more college football Week 11 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 11 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
