College Football Week 13 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
After last week’s subpar performance, I started questioning whether or not this just isn’t going to be my year for college football. I felt as good as I had all year long going into Saturday’s games, especially after seeing my first best bet of Week 12, Clemson, pull the upset on the road on Friday night at Louisville. However, the early games on Saturday went south, the middle window was also a struggle, and finally, I was able to get some scratch back at night. In the end, it was a 9-12 finish, dropping my season record to 102-114 ATS, a disappointing 47.2%. I also have sent myself into a three-week losing streak after doing the opposite prior. That said, I’m sticking to the grind of what has worked for me in recent years; it’s all I can do. That’s what I did in putting together my Week 13 college football best bets.
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 19, 2025
Miami (OH) at Buffalo
I had to read it twice, the story of QB Da’Quan Finn opting to prepare for the NFL draft rather than finishing his season with Miami (OH). I have many questions, and this probably isn’t the place for them. However, it does have me looking closer at the extremely low total for this Wednesday night MAC-tion game. It actually dropped after the announcement, even though I’m not sure how much of an impact Finn actually had on this offense this year. In fact, with just four rushing TDs and a 9/6 TD/Int ratio, his stats are utterly disappointing based upon his MAC history.
That said, prior to the Toledo contest, the Redhawks were on a roll offensively, averaging 30.1 PPG in their prior seven. Here they are facing a Buffalo team that just gave up 38 points to Central Michigan. Even after backing Finn out of the lineup, my Effective Strength and Bettors’ Ratings project totals of 45.3 and 42.2 points for this game, both earning green stars on the VSiN matchups page. Plus, with 77% of the bets at DK still liking the Over, we will be backed by this system: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 46.5 or lower, 72%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the OVER have gone 157-127 (55.3%). This system improved its win percentage in ’24 (57.8%). This does not produce a ton of plays here in the grand scheme, but the more public option of number of bets has been pretty good when going against the grain.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: With weather not an issue, I’ll go MOH-BUF Over 38.5
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 2025
Louisiana Lafayette at Arkansas State
With Louisiana having last faced Texas State and winning 42-39, I can understand why bettors may be reluctant to take a closer look at an Under in the follow-up game against Arkansas State. In fact, 76% of the handle is actually on the Over 53.5 for the contest. However, ASU plays a totally different type of game than Texas State, as their combined scores are just 49.8 PPG as compared to TSU’s 68. And with both teams still hunting a sixth bowl clinching win, I don’t expect this game to get out of the hands of the defenses.
The Red Wolves’ defense is actually playing well of late, 21.3 PPG in the last four games. We have two nice betting systems that also indicate the Under is the way to go. First, Sun Belt non-Saturday games have gone Under the total at a 53-28-1 (65.4%) rate since 2015. Second, Sun Belt small home favorites/pick ’ems in the pick ’em to -5.5 line range and totals within the 52.5-65 range have had these totals go Under at a 43-19 (69.4%) rate since 2015.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: I’ll go Under 53.5 in the Louisiana-Arkansas State Thursday night tilt
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 21, 2025
Hawaii at UNLV
This is another weeknight game in which I am going to go against the grain based upon my ratings projections and the ridiculous disparity of money being shown on the DraftKings Betting Splits. Oh, and I, of course, have a nice system to back these things. First off, I published an article a couple of weeks ago about how well my college football ratings sets were doing this season, and one of the best spots was when there were green stars shown for the Effective Strength and Bettors Ratings on the totals projections. On a total of 64.5 for this one, the projections are 61.0 & 60.1, respectively.
Why would this be with the teams scoring so well this season? Well, my defensive numbers show they are actually better than most people probably understand, particularly Hawaii’s, which allows an effective 21.5 PPG only. Then, regarding the DK splits, there is 97% of the handle on the Over, and even still, the line has not moved since Sunday’s release. Doesn’t that make you curious? Finally, Mountain West home favorites of a touchdown or less (-0.5 to -7) with a total of >=60.5 have seen the total go Under at a 19-7 (73.1%) rate since 2016.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: Let’s go with what might be an unpopular Under 64.5 in Hawaii-UNLV
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 22, 2025
Tulane at Temple
Regardless of what Tulane coach Jon Sumrall was spewing in his press conference this week about Tulane being an average team and not really worthy of the G5 CFP spot, I believe he was attempting to motivate his team to play more inspired football. In reality, they are better than average, with my Power Ratings showing the Green Wave at 44.5, with the average FBS team being about two points worse. You want to see way worse than average, check Temple at 34.5. Plus, Tulane is still ranked, and a small enough favorite where they will be backed by this angle: In games Week 12 or later in the season, ranked road teams are now 135-36 SU and 93-75-3 ATS (55.4%) vs. non-ranked home teams since 2017.
Digging deeper into this data, you will find that when these ranked road teams are favored by more than 6 points against non-ranked hosts, they have gone 116-17 SU and 74-56-3 ATS (56.9%) in that same Week 12 and later time span. They are also in a spot where AAC favorites in the -7 to -12 line range have gone 114-16 SU and 74-50-6 (59.7%) ATS since 2015. We know that Tulane is a reliable favorite overall, going 51-28-1 (64.6%) ATS as a favorite since 2014. Last year was a 52-6 decision. I don’t think the Owls have made up enough ground to change things.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: I’ll go Tulane -8.5 to take care of Temple
Marshall at Appalachian State
It has to be hard for teams like Appalachian State to handle losing skids, as just a couple of seasons ago, ASU was a Group of 5 and a Sun Belt power. You could have never envisioned the Mountaineers on the short end of a 58-10 decision like they were last week at James Madison. As they look to rebound this week against Marshall, they will be facing a difficult-to-overcome betting system: Teams playing at home in conference games and coming off a blowout loss by more than 45 points are just 48-76 ATS (38.7%) since 2010.
Marshall is favored here for a reason, as it looks to lock up bowl eligibility in this first season under new head coach Tony Gibson. That would be a nice accomplishment after the problems that hit the program after last season. My Power Ratings and Effective Strength Ratings both indicate the Herd are a bit underpriced yet, and Sun Belt Road Favorites in the -3.5 to -10 line range are 68-29 SU and 58-39 (59.8%) ATS since 2015
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: I’ll lay the 4.5 points with Marshall on the road
BYU at Cincinnati
The articles I put together this week for college and pro football detailed each team’s home and road performance. Combining the articles can provide some opportunities, such as finding spots where the worst home performers host the best road teams. This game in Cincinnati is one of those spots, as after I plugged in my adjusted home/road ratings after my findings, the numbers showed that Cincinnati is only actually due about 1.4 points of HFA. In my opinion, oddsmakers are crediting them more as they are +2.5 on the line when my Power Ratings indicate it should be 3.6.
The Bearcats are no longer sneaking up on teams after losing back-to-back games. They also historically struggle in the underdog role, going 6-15 ATS (28.6%) as such in the last four seasons. BYU, meanwhile, had a great response to its terrible performance at Texas Tech two weeks ago, bouncing back to rout TCU 44-13. This is a disciplined and hungry team that wants a shot at payback in a couple weeks in the Big 12 title game and can’t afford a slip-up here. In games Week 12 or later in the season, ranked road teams are now 135-36 SU and 93-75-3 ATS (55.4%) vs. non-ranked home teams since 2017.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: Give me BYU -2.5 at Cincinnati to win and cover in a grinder
Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech
For as much as Georgia Tech doesn’t have a rich history of coming up big when it matters in recent years of college football, and is just 12-25-1 ATS (32.4%) as a favorite since 2018, don’t you get the sense that this Yellow Jackets team is different in 2025? I sure do, and losing a key game as a small -2.5 point favorite is not something that I see coming to derail the ACC title hopes.
The low line actually works in head coach Brent Key’s team’s favor in this case, according to this system: In games Week 12 or later in the season, there has been a huge discrepancy in the performance of naked home teams against non-ranked visitors at the 12-point favorite line mark. As favorites of 12 points or more, they have gone 123-14 SU but just 58-73-2 ATS (44.3%), but at any other line, including underdog, they are 43-10 SU and 32-21 ATS (60.4%) since 2017. Plus, having just survived BC 36-34 last week, ranked teams coming off a close win of 7 points or fewer where they didn’t cover the point spread, are on a 220-51 SU & 156-113-2 ATS (58%) surge when favored in the next game since October of 2015.
Pittsburgh was humbled last week by Notre Dame, and teams coming off a loss at home to a top 10-ranked team are just 135-145 SU and 123-155-2 ATS (44.2%) in the next game since October of 2016. On top of all that, Tech QB Haynes King figures to be the best player on the field Saturday, and Pittsburgh is 2-9 ATS (18.2%) in the last 11 games as a road underdog
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: I’ll lay the -2.5 points with Georgia Tech in a key ACC clash with Pitt
Michigan at Maryland
I mentioned the home/road studies I did this week for VSiN in the writeup I just had for BYU-Cincy. Another game that shows a very strong performing road team against a host that has not defended its home field well is in Maryland this week, where my adjusted numbers indicate the Terps should only benefit from about 1.3 points home-field advantage. After all, Michigan is 20-11 (64.5%) ATS in road/neutral games in the last four seasons, and Maryland has lost six straight games, including three at home. Perhaps you have seen me cite the system that shows in games Week 12 or later in the season, ranked road teams are now 135-36 SU and 93-75-3 ATS (55.4%) vs. non-ranked home teams since 2017.
Digging deeper into this data, you will find that when these ranked road teams are favored by more than 6 points against non-ranked hosts, they have gone 116-17 SU & 74-56-3 ATS (56.9%) in that same Week 12 and later time span. Plus, with Michigan getting a walkoff win last week at Wrigley, this angle will also be in play: ranked teams coming off a close win of 7 points or fewer where they didn’t cover the point spread, are on a 220-51 SU and 156-113-2 ATS (58%) surge when favored in the next game since October of ’15. Don’t worry about looking ahead to Ohio State either for Michigan, as the Wolverines have won all four pre-Big Game contests, including 59-18 at Maryland in 2021.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: Give me Michigan -14 to take care of Maryland
Nebraska at Penn State
For as much as injured Nebraska QB Dylan Raiola has been better this season, I’ve always found my betting history with him to be at best “checkered.” He has been quite unreliable and inconsistent, hence the 10-9-3 ATS mark in his career starts for head coach Matt Rhule. Without him at UCLA, the offense fired pretty well, putting up 28 points behind backup TJ Lateef, who provides a nice running threat as well. Now, the Cornhuskers have had two weeks to get better under Lateef and get ready for this game at Penn State: Teams playing as conference road dogs of more than 7 points after not having played since 14 days ago are on a 150-121 ATS (55.4%) surge since 2010.
The line seems to be a bit overpriced based on my Power and Effective Strength Ratings, which show PSU -9 & -9.2. Obviously, that’s not a huge disparity off of the actual number, but when you add the motivation levels in, with Rhule’s team trying to win an eighth game for the first time in 2016, and PSU still only 1-6 in Big Ten play, I only see one way to go.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: Give me Nebraska getting +9.5 at Penn State
Colorado State vs. Boise State
Getting back to my home/road performance pieces for this week for VSiN, I’ve mentioned a couple of games so far with very minimal home-field advantage expected. One on the other side with a huge HFA boost for this week will be in the Colorado State-Boise State contest, where the Broncos should be the beneficiary of a nice +4.0. The line for this one seems heavily impacted by the two-week stretch the Broncos have played minus QB Maddux Madsen, who is again expected out. However, I have backed him out of my ratings, and my Power Rating still shows this game underpriced by 2.7 points. Discounting last week, Boise typically is a nice bounce-back team as well, boasting a 13-4 (76.5%) ATS record following a SU loss in last 17 tries. Plus, let’s face it, Colorado State has gone wayward, outscored 121-46 in its current four-game losing skid. Take away the anomaly 49-point outburst versus Fresno State, the Rams are scoring 14.6 PPG in their other nine contests.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: I’ll lay the 16.5 points with Boise State on the Smurf turf
Kansas State at Utah
There are some dangers to laying big points at this time of year, even if the favored team has demonstrated the ability to cover big spreads recently. Take a look at these anti-big home favorite systems in play for KState-Utah on Saturday. First, ranked home favorites of more than 14 points are 348-27 SU but just 165-206-4 ATS (44.5%) versus unranked conference opponents since October 2015. Second, in games Week 12 or later in the season, there has been a huge discrepancy in the performance of ranked home teams against non-ranked visitors at the 12-point favorite line mark. As favorites of 12 points or more, they have gone 123-14 SU but just 58-73-2 ATS (44.3%), but at any other line, including underdog, they are 43-10 SU and 32-21 ATS (60.4%) since 2017.
What can add some extra motivation for backing the underdog is when big money is on the home favorite too, as 77% of the handle at DK was on Utah at the time of this writing: Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when more than 75% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 505-568 ATS (47.1%). The Wildcats are usually a very pesky underdog, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 in that role.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: I’ll back Kansas State getting +17.5 in Utah
Baylor at Arizona
The 55-28 score versus Utah last week didn’t do a whole lot of justice to how well Baylor played offensively last week, as the Bears gained 563 yards (+80 diff), but couldn’t capitalize like the Utes did. Even still, the huge showing puts Baylor in a good spot this week: College football teams that lost as underdogs despite gaining 550 or more yards on offense have bounced back well lately, going 61-45-2 ATS (57.5%) over the last 12 years.
On the other hand, Arizona comes off a solid win of its own, a 30-24 decision at Cincinnati. This angle says we shouldn’t expect a second straight solid outing: Teams still unranked even after beating a ranked team in the prior game are 80-38 SU but just 50-66-2 ATS (43.1%) when favored in the follow-up contest since November of ’15. The Wildcats are just 2-4 ATS as a Big 12 home favorite. I don’t expect this one to be easy, especially with the Bears still having yet to clinch bowl eligibility.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: I’ll go with Baylor getting +7 points in Tucson
Arkansas at Texas
You might expect a different Texas team now that the Longhorns have been eliminated from the CFP discussion. You would probably also expect them to struggle against an unranked Arkansas team, one that has been competitive despite what its record indicates. However, I am actually thinking the opposite, and feel like QB Arch Manning and Texas still have a lot to play for, and hosting a high-scoring rivalry team will be more than enough to motivate them to play well.
Let’s look at the system still in play: In games Week 12 or later in the season, there has been a huge discrepancy in the performance of ranked home teams against non-ranked visitors at the 12-point favorite line mark. As favorites of 12 points or more, they have gone 123-14 SU but just 58-73-2 ATS (44.3%), but at any other line, including underdog, they are 43-10 SU and 32-21 ATS (60.4%) since 2017. The line is also less than my Power Ratings show it should be, -11.1. And while the loss to Georgia was decisive and ugly, ranked teams coming off of double-digit losses have responded nicely of late, going 61-23 SU and 52-31-1 ATS (62.7%) in the next game since November of 2021.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: Let’s still trust Texas (-8.5) to continue to bring the effort
USC at Oregon
The USC-Oregon contest is another one in which there will be a big home-field advantage, 4.4 points in fact, after making my adjustments following this week’s study. USC is 1-3 ATS on the road this season, and while it has won three straight overall, it certainly doesn’t feel like head coach Lincoln Riley’s team is clicking, especially when matched against any team of quality. The Trojans were fortunate to come from behind and beat Iowa last week at home. Well, teams coming off a win over a ranked team and playing another ranked team are just 62-86 SU and 64-81-3 ATS (44.1%) since September 2019.
This is one of two ranked vs. ranked games on the board this week, and you know I almost religiously back the hosts in such, especially in low-lined contests: In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 215-110 SU and 187-129-9 ATS (59.2%). Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 123-30 SU and 92-57-4 ATS (61.7%). Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 64-27 SU and 57-31-3 ATS (64.8%) since 2017.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: Oregon should get it done at -9.5 hosting USC
Sam Houston State at Middle Tennessee State
About a month ago, I heavily criticized Sam Houston and new head coach Phil Longo, who seemed to be having about as much success with SHSU as he did as OC at Wisconsin. Well, wouldn’t you know it, all it took was an injury to starting QB Hunter Watson to bring the team together and get a couple of wins. That’s right, the Bearkats’ current two-game winning streak over Delaware and Oregon State, a couple of their best opponents recently, came without the guy who was supposedly their best player coming in to 2025. Instead, it has been backups Landyn Locke and Mabrey Mettauer that have led this team to victory. Even still, they find themselves as heavy underdogs to an MTSU team that has lost seven straight games and is 1-9 overall. This is not the same team they were two weeks ago, when this line would have made sense. SHSU has played much better defensively, looking like the 2024 version. The Blue Raiders have allowed 98 points in the last two weeks.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: I’ll take the +7 points here with now hot Sam Houston State
Illinois at Wisconsin
On my home-field advantage study I did earlier this week, it was determined that there has only been one Power 5 team that has enjoyed less true home-field edge over the last 3-1/2 seasons than Wisconsin, and that has been Purdue. Anyone who has watched the Badgers since head coach Luke Fickell has arrived understands that they have earned their paltry crowds and lack of home spirit lately. This season, Bucky has scored just 23 points in its four Big Ten home games. Now, they are playing as just a 7.5-point underdog to a quality Illinois team that has proven itself pretty capable on both sides of the ball.
After applying my adjusted +0.5 points of HFA to this game, my Power Ratings are showing that the Illini should be 10-point favorites. The eye test says that might not even be enough. With Illinois 17-6 ATS (73.9%) in road games since 2021, and the Badgers struggling on a weekly basis to muster up anything offensively despite three straight ATS wins, paying 7.5 points seems like a bargain.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: I’ll lay the 7.5 points with Illinois in Madison
Southern Miss at South Alabama
I don’t often reference any type of common opponent stats, as I believe each game’s situation is different for teams, but it can provide some insight in games where lines seem “off.” In this particular contest, Southern Miss and South Alabama now only sport completely opposite 7-3 and 3-7 records, but in common opponent games, USM is 3-0 and USA is 1-2. Simply put, the Golden Eagles are the better team in this game, and the line does not really reflect it. In fact, if you look at my list of Power Ratings for this week, you will see that I have Southern Miss with an Effective Strength Rating of +8.1 and South Alabama at 1.2. That is a full TD difference and an indication that these are two different-level teams.
If you’re looking for motivation on either side, consider that the Golden Eagles are in a great bowl position with a lot to prove yet. The Jaguars have been eliminated from bowl contention. Plus, there’s the little aspect of getting payback for the 35-14 decision in Hattiesburg last year. College football teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins on the season than their opponent have been very successful, going 114-21 SU and 85-45-5 ATS (65.4%) since 2016. Also, with the Jaguars getting one of their three wins last week over ULM, consider that South Alabama is 18-39 (31.6%) ATS coming off a SU win since 2014.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: I’ll take Southern Miss -2.5 at South Alabama
Jacksonville State at Florida International
After its big win over Kennesaw State last week, it seems that Jacksonville State has at least put itself in position to defend its Conference USA title in a couple of weeks, as they are the league’s last remaining unbeaten team. Perhaps more importantly, the Gamecocks are in a groove, having won five straight games. The transition from Rich Rodriguez to Charles Kelly has gone about as well as anyone could have expected.
Their next opponent, Florida International, has proven to be one of the worst home teams in all of college football lately, despite the win over a disinterested Liberty team last week. In general, Florida International is 17-31 (35.4%) in Conference games over the last six seasons. Ironically, the Panthers’ current two-game winning streak has come without starting QB Keyone Jenkins. I don’t look at this the same way I did with Sam Houston, as FIU has beaten two reeling teams. The JSU team they face this week is doing the exact opposite, and in my opinion, the line falls well short of reflecting that. The Gamecocks’ run-based offense travels well, and should do so this week in South Florida.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: I’ll lay the short -1.5 points with Jacksonville State
New Mexico at Air Force
After lighting up scoreboards for most of the first half of the season, both New Mexico and Air Force faced consistently overblown totals numbers since. As such, the Lobos have gone Under in three of their last four, while the Falcons have done so in four straight games. The head-to-head history between these teams has shown that scoreboard operators might want to make sure all the bulbs are working, however. These teams have gone Over the total in 10 of their last 11 meetings, with last year’s game producing 89 points. The winning team has scored at least 35 points in all 10 of those games that eclipsed the number. As it is, New Mexico is 23-11 (67.6%) Over the total in the last two seasons. The fact that both teams seem due for good offensive showings against weaker defenses makes me feel even better about it. Having 92% of the handle at DraftKings on the Under cinches it for me.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: Give me Over 55.5 in New Mexico-Air Force
For more college football Week 13 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 13 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
