College Football Week 14 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
A 9-10 ATS finish last week, marred by Saturday night results and a brutal effort in the Group of 5 games, has my college football Best Bets record sitting at 111-124 heading into this week’s regular-season finales. If you were just looking for my opinion on some of the biggest games last week, you were probably thrilled with my performance, as I hit with BYU, Texas, Michigan and Oregon in the top Power 5 games. Of course, they all count the same if you just tabulate wins and losses. It’s been beyond frustrating this past month, as I’ve been virtually spinning my wheels, giving up a game or two in my quest for plus-.500 for almost every week. I’ve prepared some regular-season finale systems for this week’s VSiN College Football Analytics Report to help me sort through the lineup. After poring through that, the betting splits, the current strength ratings and everything else at my disposal, here is what I have come up with for my Week 14 college football best bets.
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 25, 2025
Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan
The last Tuesday night of 2025 MACtion finds two big road favorites, which — without looking into details — would probably have to be considered a tough spot for a visitor. However, the devil is in the details in terms of college football season-finale home dogs, as since 2015, home underdogs of seven points or more are just 23-134 SU and 62-93-2 ATS (40%) in season-finale games. As I analyzed the merits of Tuesday night’s games, instead of looking at which home dog was worse, as that really isn’t a question in this case between EMU and UMass, rather, I looked at which road favorite was more worthy of the “honor.” Since Bowling Green has lost five straight games outright and ATS while scoring just 67 points, they are essentially disqualified. On the other hand, Western Michigan has somewhat quietly played great football recently and has a chance to wrap up a spot in the MAC title game with a win. I use the word quietly because the Broncos have mostly been winning with defense, allowing just 13.5 PPG in conference action. Eastern Michigan has been an underdog eight times and is just 2-6 in those games, not demonstrating the type of grit it would take to knock off a team with title hopes. Late line movement has pushed this one to 10 points, righteously with the stakes involved.
College Football Week 14 Best Bet: I’ll lay the 10 points with Western Michigan
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 28, 2025
Ohio at Buffalo
Ohio is in the mix for a berth in the MAC title game next week but needs a win in a tough spot at Buffalo to have a chance. What makes this a tough spot? For one, Buffalo has been competitive but inconsistent, and as a result needs a win to clinch bowl eligibility. An intriguing regular-season finale angle involves those teams trying to clinch bowl eligibility, as they are sitting with five wins. Since 2015, when those five-win teams faced teams with better records in the season finales, they have gone 27-56 SU but 45-36-2 ATS (55.6%). This is also a revenge spot for the Bulls after they were routed 47-17 a year ago at Ohio. Buffalo is 16-15 SU and 20-10-1 ATS (66.7%) in revenge mode since ’16. This is also a game with heavy action (83% handle at DraftKings) on the road chalk Bobcats. When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group is just 263-297 ATS (47%).
College Football Week 14 Best Bet: Give me Buffalo +7 to be very competitive versus Ohio U
Utah at Kansas
Kansas is another team hoping to earn a bowl bid with a huge upset win over Utah this weekend. I see two problems for the Jayhawks, however. First, this season has been a major disappointment for coach Lance Leipold and Co., as I believe they had the talent, led by QB Jalon Daniels, to be a fringe contender in the Big 12 this season. Second, they are facing a Utah team that is consistently taking care of business this season and is flying high after an improbable comeback last week against KSU. Ranked teams coming off a close win of seven points or fewer in which they didn’t cover the point spread, are on a 222-52 SU and 157-115-2 ATS (57.7%) surge when favored in the next game since October of ’15. As it is, home underdogs of seven points or more are just 23-134 SU and 62-93-2 ATS (40%) in season-finale games. The Utes still have some big dreams of their own, at the top of the list, getting a 10th win. In season-finale games since 2015, when there has been a difference of four wins or more between the teams, when the better team has been the road team in the matchup, the record has been 88-12 SU and 61-38-1 ATS (61.6%). There is also a strong road ranked team system angle backing coach Kyle Whittingham’s team here: In Week 12 or later in the season, ranked road teams are 141-36 SU and 98-76-3 ATS (56.3%) vs. non-ranked home teams since 2017. Digging deeper into this data, you will find that when these ranked road teams are favored by more than six points against non-ranked hosts, they have gone 120-17 SU and 77-57-3 ATS (57.5%) in that same Week 12 and later time span.
College Football Week 14 Best Bet: I’ll back Utah (-11.5) to eliminate Kansas from bowl consideration
Georgia vs. Georgia Tech
Some big surprises always seem to occur in the final regular-season Thanksgiving weekend in college football. Could this renewal of the Georgia-Georgia Tech rivalry offer up one of those shockers? I’m not sure, but I don’t think it’s going to be as easy as the oddsmakers are making it look for the Bulldogs. Just a few weeks ago, it would have been improbable for us to be looking at a +13.5-point line here for the Yellow Jackets. They were 8-0, ranked in the top 10, and at the same time, Georgia was floundering with a 3-4 ATS record. However, Tech has gone 1-2 since, but it hasn’t been a complete unraveling, as they have scored 30.7 PPG in the three-game skid. The Pitt game last week got away late and wound up in a 14-point setback. Well, ranked teams coming off of double-digit losses have responded nicely of late, going 62-23 SU and 53-31-1 ATS (63.1%) in the next game since November of ’21. Coach Kirby Smart’s team has not lost to rival Tech since 2016, although the Yellow Jackets are definitely closing the gap, having won three straight ATS. This revenge spot offers up a system: Since the start of the 2016 season, neutral-field underdogs playing in revenge mode have gone 50-31 ATS (61.7%).
College Football Week 14 Best Bet: Give me Georgia Tech +13.5 to make it competitive again with UGA
San Diego State at New Mexico
There has been plenty of calamity in recent weeks in the Mountain West, setting up this game as a virtual play-in game for a trip to the conference championship game. San Diego State has managed to maintain its spot as the only one-loss team despite not playing all that well offensively in recent weeks. According to this system, however, that shouldn’t matter in terms of this game versus upstart New Mexico: Over the last 12 years, teams that won a conference game despite gaining less than 250 yards of offense have used that victory to build momentum, going 85-61 ATS (58.2%) in the follow-up game. The reason the Aztecs remain atop the MWC is their defense, as they have allowed 10 points or fewer in all but three games and really had only a couple of hiccups in that regard all season long. While New Mexico’s early season offensive attack may have been capable of causing another hiccup, I don’t think the Lobos have that momentum any longer, putting up just 20 points on Air Force and Colorado State the last two weeks. Those are two of the three worst defenses in the league. They say defense travels. In a key MWC game, I’ll take the league’s undisputed top defense as a small favorite.
College Football Week 14 Best Bet: I’ll go with San Diego State -1.5 at New Mexico
Texas A&M at Texas
Two of the top offenses in the SEC over the last month will go head-to-head in a huge rivalry game in Austin on Friday. The total doesn’t necessarily reflect that the two offenses are rolling, as oddsmakers have set the number at a rather low 51.5. My Effective Strength and Bettors’ Ratings indicate the number should be 54 and 53.6, respectively. There is also a nice SEC angle that indicates Over the total is 20-7 (74.1%) in SEC non-neutral expected-tight matchups (within a field goal -3 to +3) with totals <= 51.5 since 2021. Looking closer at the recent numbers these teams have put up, A&M has topped the 30-point mark in seven straight games and QB Marcel Reed has been prolific in both running and throwing the football. The defense has also allowed 29.3 PPG in its last four SEC outings. Meanwhile, the Texas offense has rolled in three of the last four games, and QB Arch Manning is coming off his best outing of the season in a 52-38 win over Arkansas. The Longhorns also have allowed 35.3 PPG in their last four. I know this rivalry is intense and both teams will be ready to tear each other apart, but the way these teams have been playing, I expect it to be an up-and-down-the-field type of game.
College Football Week 14 Best Bet: Let’s go Over 51.5 in Texas A&M-Texas
Temple at North Texas
For as much as North Texas has been the country’s top scoring team this season, it’s still been a dangerous thing to lay big points in late-season games, even for ranked teams. Note these two systems. First, since 2015, home favorites of more than 20 points are 59-6 SU but just 26-39 ATS (40%) in season finales. Second, in games Week 12 or later in the season, there has been a huge discrepancy in the performance of ranked home teams against non-ranked visitors at the 12-point favorite line mark. As favorites of 12 points or more, they have gone 128-14 SU but just 60-76-2 ATS (44.1%), but at any other line, including underdog, they are 45-12 SU and 34-23 ATS (59.6%) since ’17. There is, of course, a lot at stake for UNT in terms of the CFP this week, so naturally it would be understandable for bettors to flock to their side. At last check, 97% of the handle at DraftKings has come in on the Mean Green. Even still, those making the numbers have dropped the line from UNT -20.5 to -19.5. Kind of curious, isn’t it? Temple is usually a pretty pesky dog and boasts a 23-12 (65.7%) ATS record coming off a SU loss since ’20. They are also going for a sixth, bowl-clinching win. An intriguing regular-season finale angle involves those teams trying to clinch bowl eligibility, as they are sitting with five wins. Since 2015, when those five-win teams faced teams with better records in the season finales, they have gone 27-56 SU but 45-36-2 ATS (55.6%).
College Football Week 14 Best Bet: I’ll go against the grain and back Temple to cover the +19.5
For more college football Week 14 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 14 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
