College Football Week 4 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
I guess I should be happy I didn’t lose in Week 3 after two bad weeks to start the college football season, but 10-10 ATS is not exactly what I’m striving for. That result leaves me with a 24-33 ATS (42.1%) mark for the season, but perhaps it’s a signal that I’m headed back in the right direction. Unfortunately, after putting everything into my Stability System this year and using all the plays it produced as Best Bets, the system turned on me. After 13 straight winning years, who could blame me for placing all my trust in it? That methodology finished 16-22 ATS, ironically, the same 42.1% I have endured in the other games I have backed. Enough about the past. I’m moving on here and looking to finally get something going in Week 4. Thus, after poring through this week’s VSiN College Football Analytics Report, as well as my strength ratings, I have zeroed in on backing these games for this weekend.
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 19, 2025
Tulsa at Oklahoma State
What does it look like when a program, which has done so well for so long, hits a wall? Well, I give you Oklahoma State, who right now is essentially unrecognizable as compared to two years ago. There were really no hints of it coming either, as about a year ago, the Cowboys were 3-0 and headed for a huge tilt at Utah. They lost that one in tight fashion, 22-19, and the wheels have fallen off since. They are 1-10 in their last 11 games, with the only win coming in Week 1 over UT-Martin, a game they didn’t even cover to boot. OSU is 1-10 ATS in those 11 games and comes off a brutal, reality-revealing 69-3 loss to Oregon.
Where does this team go now for head coach Mike Gundy? It’s hard to believe they would begin some upward trend at this point, and I believe bettors are seeing it too, as 71% of the money at DraftKings is on visiting Tulsa for this Friday night game. Recall that when a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 132-113 ATS (53.9%). This has also become a perfect revenge spot for Tulsa, a chance to take down a reeling in-state foe. Tulsa is 18-13 ATS (58.1%) in revenge mode since 2016. Plus, teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been successful, going 221-176 ATS (55.7%) since 2016. If you caught my article this week on strength ratings, you would also see that Tulsa has been vastly better than OSU on a play-by-play basis. I look for the Golden Hurricane to extend a 5-1 ATS run by road teams in this series.
College Football Week 4 Best Bet: I’ll take Tulsa (+11.5) as the double-digit dog to a reeling OSU team
Iowa at Rutgers
Because of the loss to Iowa State a couple of weeks ago, some of the luster has been taken off what could have been a high-profile battle of 3-0 teams in New Brunswick on Friday night. Rutgers is unbeaten and on an upward trend under head coach Greg Schiano. Their fan base should be jacked as their Knights start league play. They are an underdog, though, and that could be a problem as Rutgers is on a 2-10 ATS skid as a Big Ten home underdog. On top of that, from a system perspective, Big 10 conference game road favorites of -4 or less have gone 23-9 SU & 21-11 ATS (65.6%) since 2021. At last check, 68% of bettors at DK were seeing Iowa with the edge here, and when the majority number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022-24 seasons record was 213-163 (56.6%)! They’ve been sharp in these isolated spots. My play-by-play data also shows that the Hawkeyes have been a clearly better team than Rutgers to this point.
College Football Week 4 Best Bet: I’ll lay the -2.5 on the road with Iowa on Friday night
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 20, 2025
North Carolina at UCF
If you’ve already overlooked North Carolina since the opening week loss to TCU, you’re not alone, but you have missed what seems to be a quick improvement from that high-profile Monday night debacle. The Tar Heels have responded with decisive victories over Charlotte and Richmond, allowing a total of nine points. Is head coach Bill Belichick’s team definitively better than they were in the opener, or is it simply a reflection of who they have played since? I believe it’s somewhere in between.
That said, I do believe they are in a kind of tough spot here, a road tilt at UCF, another program that is riding the excitement of having a new coach. Head coach Scott Frost’s team is 2-0 and just throttled NC A&T, 68-7. Their performance in that game leads to a nice system in place, indicating that over the course of the last twelve years, CFB teams that scored 58 or more points in a game while allowing fewer than 10 have carried on the momentum well in the next outing, going 145-110 ATS (56.9%). My statistical ratings also indicate that this game is somewhat underpriced, as my Effective Strength Ratings show UCF at -12.1, and my play-by-play effective numbers show UCF at -20.7. Not a great sample size on that last one, but still definitively better.
College Football Week 4 Best Bet: I’ll take UCF -7 to take down North Carolina
UNLV at Miami (OH)
Although we are just three games in for UNLV and two games for Miami (OH), the latter has played a decisively tougher schedule to get ready for this Saturday’s non-conference game in the Midwest. The three foes for head coach Dan Mullen’s team have an average power rating of 24.5 on my scale, while the Redhawks’ two Big Ten opponents have an average of 51.4. Only the Purdue-Notre Dame game shows a bigger discrepancy on this week’s board.
In other words, in my opinion, we know very little about where these teams will end up, and I don’t trust the 3-0 vs. 0-2 records. In fact, if you saw my column on Effective Yards Per Play stats this week, you would have noticed that the second biggest discrepancy between the actual line and the play-by-play strength of the teams is in this game, with Miami (OH) -24.9 on that metric. That doesn’t even touch upon the unfamiliarity and difficulty of this spot for UNLV schedule-wise. This is the home opener for head coach Chuck Martin’s team, and they have won 26 of their last 30 as hosts. This line is very short for a reason. Looks like a very live home dog spot.
College Football Week 4 Best Bet: I’ll back Miami (OH) +2.5 as the home dog
Florida at Miami (FL)
I have been a big proponent of head coach Billy Napier’s work at Florida, as I believe it is very underrated. He has turned the program around in the area of recruiting, bringing it back to an elite level. The fact that the Gators perennially play one of the toughest schedules in the country is not lost on me. They’ve already lost a couple of games in 2025, to a much-improved USF team and at LSU this past Saturday, but they were very competitive in both. As such, I was a little surprised to see this line sitting at more than a touchdown when I analyzed the game on Wednesday morning.
I know a lot of bettors have fallen for Miami (FL) at this point after the rout of USF, and are probably using that game to justify this number, but to me, football is a week-to-week game, not a continuation. I fear that 91% of the handle at DraftKings is falling into a setup with the Hurricanes. When 76%+ of the number of bets were on the home side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone just 192-220 ATS (46.6%). In 2022, it was 46.5%. In 2023, it was 46.7%. In 2024, it was 46.6%. This is incredible consistency. Plus, two weeks ago, this line would have been closer to Miami -3.5 or so. I don’t think these teams are that separated talent-wise to command this line. I expect some heart from Florida here.
College Football Week 4 Best Bet: I’ll take the Gators +7.5 at Miami (FL) with a chance for an upset
Syracuse at Clemson
Clemson’s start has to be just maddening for a lot of prognosticators who rely on returning production/experience metrics as a way of predicting future success. This program seemed to have it all heading into 2025, with QB Cade Klubnik leading back 17 starters in all and making a pitch as a top Heisman contender. He has been anything but so far, and his team is 1-2 and scoring less than 20 PPG. Here, the Tigers will get a Syracuse team that has already been tested by a much more prolific offense in Tennessee and played pretty competitively in that one and by all rights should have covered the point spread that day. Most bettors give the Orange a decent shot here, with 71% of the money and 74% of the bets at DK on the road dogs. When a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 132-113 ATS (53.9%).
Head coach Fran Brown, who has spoken this week about his experience and love for being the underdog, brings his team to Clemson after a 66-24 rout of Colgate. That leads to an interesting system that continues to thrive: CFB teams that see their point spread in one game being at least 52 points worse than the prior game have performed very well in that follow-up contest since 2012, going 98-69 ATS (58.7%). I believe any play on Clemson here is a desperate force, as they just might not be as good as advertised. They are also on a 12-18 ATS skid as home chalk.
College Football Week 4 Best Bet: Give me Syracuse +17.5 at Clemson
Kent State at Florida State
The last seven college football favorites of -36.5 or more in FBS vs. FBS games this season have failed to cover their point spreads, three of them by a half point. So why in the world would I look to back Florida State in this game versus Kent State? Well, despite the line being -45.5, my effective per play stats actually show that the game is still underpriced. That metric indicates FSU should be laying -56.3. Can the Seminoles reach a total that would enable them to cover? Well, they scored 77 two weeks ago, and seem to be in a respect-earning mode right now after last year’s horrible season. On top of that, Kent State yielded 62 to a Texas A&M offense that I don’t believe to be as explosive as FSU’s.
Don’t worry that 85% of the money is on head coach Mike Norvell’s team either, as contrary to popular belief, majority handle bettors have been very good when getting behind huge home favorites, specifically those favored by 27.5 points or more. Typically, I would fear this as a prototypical public bet, but these groups are 60-40 ATS (60%) over the last three seasons. We have also seen on the Analytics Reports that we should confidently ride teams off of uber-dominant performances – Over the course of the last twelve years, CFB teams that scored 58 or more points in a game while allowing fewer than 10 have carried on the momentum well in the next outing, going 145-110 ATS (56.9%). KSU has proven to be awful as an underdog (11-24 ATS L35) and is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Buffalo.
College Football Week 4 Best Bet: Florida State -45.5 pummels Kent State
Auburn at Oklahoma
There are only three ranked vs. ranked games this weekend, and only one of them meets the three-system trifecta that I religiously get behind when they arise. That game is the Auburn-Oklahoma tilt from Norman. If you need a reminder, these are the three systems in progression: 1) In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 200-97 SU and 174-115-8 ATS (60.2%). 2) Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 116-24 SU and 86-50-4 ATS (63.2%). 3) Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 59-21 SU and 52-25-3 ATS (67.5%) since 2017.
That last one offers quite a winning percentage and is the reason I follow so closely. In terms of this matchup, I believe these offenses are relatively similar. I do feel, however, that the defense of Sooners head coach Brent Venables, a defensive guru by nature, is superior. The early-season numbers validate that. OU’s effective points allowed is 1.4, Auburn’s is 8.5. With the offensive numbers nearly identical, this is where our strength difference and point spread come from. And that doesn’t even factor in what should be a raucous home-field edge in Norman.
College Football Week 4 Best Bet: I’ll lay the 6.5 points with Oklahoma at home
Michigan at Nebraska
The last two weeks have raised the hopes for 2025 in Lincoln, with their beloved Cornhuskers putting up 127 points in back-to-back blowout wins. Those were over Houston Christian and Akron, however, not exactly a who’s who of college football. I suggest going back to the opener, where head coach Matt Rhule’s team barely survived Cincinnati in a neutral field contest at Arrowhead Stadium. That looked more like the Nebraska team we’ve grown accustomed to, and closer to reality if you ask me. I believe that the home folks in Lincoln could find out the hard way that the strides made haven’t been that great when they host Michigan on Saturday.
I’m not saying the game is going to be ugly, as I expect this to be perhaps the biggest home game for the program in a decade or so, but I do still expect disappointment in the end. I mentioned this earlier in the Iowa-Rutgers contest, but Big 10 conference game road favorites of -4 or less have gone 23-9 SU and 21-11 ATS (65.6%) since 2021. Plus, Michigan is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games vs. Big Ten foes when coming off a home win, and 19-8 (70.4%) ATS in Road/Neutral games in the last four seasons. The Cornhuskers haven’t been a big game host either, going 7-14-2 (33.3%) ATS at home in the last 23. If that weren’t enough, favorites are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the Wolverine-Husker series.
College Football Week 4 Best Bet: Give me Michigan -2.5 at Nebraska
Northern Illinois at Mississippi State
I have been a huge proponent of backing Northern Illinois in the road underdog role in recent years, including earlier this season when the Huskies (+16.5) scratched out an ATS win in a 20-9 loss at Maryland. Truthfully, NIU didn’t deserve that cover as the Terps blew multiple chances in the red zone to open the game up. It wasn’t the typical feisty effort from head coach Thomas Hammock’s team. The only other game they have played to date was a 19-17 win over Holy Cross. In short, I don’t think this is the type of team that is going to push a very hungry team like Mississippi State to the limits.
If you read any of my offseason work, I shared that I believed this was a critical season for head coach Jeff Lebby and the Bulldogs, and I believed they had the experience, talent, and deep hunger to be a much better team this season. They have already proven that they are. Case in point, last week, when they laid 42.5 to Alcorn State and pummeled them easily, 63-0, with the game being shortened in the second half. That leads us into this angle for this week: Over the course of the last twelve years, CFB teams that scored 58 or more points in a game while allowing fewer than 10 have carried on the momentum well in the next outing, going 145-110 ATS (56.9%). Folks in Starkville have something to be excited about. I don’t see this NIU team slowing the momentum.
College Football Week 4 Best Bet: I’m more than willing to lay the -21 with Mississippi State
Delaware at Florida International
Bettors at DraftKings are running to FIU at a 96% handle, 78% bets rate at last check on the betting splits page. Why is this information valuable to me, particularly in this matchup? Well, when 76%+ of the number of bets were on the home side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone just 192-220 ATS (46.6%). In 2022, it was 46.5%. In 2023, it was 46.7%. In 2024, it was 46.6%. This is incredible consistency.
It’s also alarming that almost unanimous money would fly in on a team that had won 13 games in four years heading into the season. These bettors must be enamored by the fact that the Panthers ended their long losing skid to FAU last week and are 3-0 ATS for the first time in many years. That said, this game seems like a perfect letdown spot, a home favorite chance against a new FBS program and coming off an emotional, high-stakes win. What could go wrong for a team not used to handling success? Don’t forget, Florida International is 15-28 (34.9%) in Conference games over the last six seasons, and the Blue Hens just upset UConn last week.
College Football Week 4 Best Bet: Give me Delaware as a sneaky live dog here at +6
Nevada at Western Kentucky
You might be asking why I keep turning back to the betting splits systems this week as basis for my plays in college football. Well, I believe this is an ideal time of the season to use them, as bettors are forming opinions strongly at this point, and they may or may not be valid based upon the vast varying scheduling differences the teams have faced. In this case, another 96% of the money and 79% of the bets have come in early on a Western Kentucky team that the jury has to be still out on. The Hilltoppers won a couple of games early over teams they were supposed to beat, but were then waxed 45-21 by Toledo, allowing 508 yards in the process. Which WKU team is for real? Tough to say.
It’s also tough to accurately gauge the strength of opponent Nevada too. That’s why it’s alarming that the betting action in this game is so one-sided. I’ll gladly fade with this little basis for the action. When 76%+ of the number of bets were on the home side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone just 192-220 ATS (46.6%). My effective play-by-play numbers also indicate Nevada has actually been the better team so far. With Western Kentucky just 15-24 (38.5%) ATS as a favorite since 2019, I’ll go with the dog.
College Football Week 4 Best Bet: Let’s go Nevada +10.5 to make things interesting at Western Kentucky
Washington at Washington State
Man, has Washington State been a Jekyll & Hyde team so far in 2025. It was commonly believed that the program would take a big step back this season after losing its head coach to Wake Forest, so what has happened so far can’t be described as a surprise. The Cougars were the picture of instability heading into the season, and their 2-1 start has been anything but stable. They barely survived Idaho, they throttled San Diego State, and then were routed at North Texas 59-10. That game was marred by five turnovers. What team should we expect to see on Saturday in an Apple Cup rivalry renewal contest versus Washington? Well, I think oddsmakers are telling us what to expect, having installed the road Huskies as near 20-point favorites.
Besides the rivalry aspect, UW will have the thirst for revenge as another source of motivation. They lost 24-19 to a much better WaSU program last year, setting up this effective betting system: Double-digit road favorites have been solid producers in the revenge role, going 51-41 ATS (55.4%) since 2016. The loss at UNT also affects the Cougars negatively from a hangover perspective: Both college football teams coming off a game which was decided by a margin of 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next contest, going just 140-185-1 ATS (43.1%) over the last decade-plus. Washington hasn’t been a very good road team lately, but one place they have won consistently has been in Pullman, going 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS in the last 11 in-state visits.
College Football Week 4 Best Bet: I’ll lay the -19.5 with Washington on the road
Georgia State at Vanderbilt
I love to find and fade teams that I believe are getting “too big for their britches.” If you’re unfamiliar, this is an old southern phrase meaning someone is overly confident, arrogant, or has an inflated sense of their own importance or authority. To be fair to Vanderbilt, the football program has suffered for so long that the success of the last season and a half has been a whirlwind. After last week’s big win at South Carolina, there was a reaction that was un-Vanderbilt-like, with a social media twist to it. There wasn’t an overwhelming focus on football, to be frank. It could lead to a letdown spot here against Georgia State as Vandy gets up into unfamiliar territory, laying -27.5 points. The last time they were favored by a point spread this big against an FBS foe: 2012.
This is another spot where the public seems to be fully invested in a team, with 82% of bettors getting behind QB Diego Pavia & Co. Even still, the number has dropped a couple of points to GSU, who comes off a 37-21 win over Murray State. The Panthers are well-tested in the early going, having lost to Memphis and Ole Miss already, and their line shift from -31.5 to +27.5 from last week to this sets us up in a nice betting system: CFB teams that see their point spread in one game being at least 52 points worse than the prior game have performed very well in that follow-up contest since 2012, going 98-69 ATS (58.7%).
College Football Week 4 Best Bet: Give me Georgia State +27.5 to keep this game respectable
Sam Houston at Texas
The naysayers are out, undoubtedly, on Texas after the 2-1 start that has not really seen consistent dominance. Most experts probably figured to see the Longhorns at 3-0 right now and averaging well over 24 PPG behind top Heisman contender Arch Manning. Things are looking dire when you consider that a very difficult SEC slate comes after this game with Sam Houston and a bye week. Suffice to say, head coach Steve Sarkisian’s team needs a spark, particularly offensively, before getting to October.
Insert Sam Houston State, a team rebuilding in 2025 under new head coach Phil Longo, and having already yielded 116 points in a 0-3 start to the young campaign. This could be just what the doctor ordered for Manning and his very talented offensive teammates. If everyone is so down on Texas, why are we still looking at a -39.5-point spread here? And why are the Longhorns only getting 54% of the respect from the money and bets at DK? This feels like a get-healthy game for Texas, one that could end up with a 56-7 type of score.
College Football Week 4 Best Bet: Let’s go Texas -39.5 to right the ship against Sam Houston
LA Monroe at UTEP
At the outset of the season, I speculated about what a difference transfer QB Malachi Nelson could make at UTEP in 2025 for second-year head coach Scotty Walden. After all, he was a former five-star recruit who began his career at USC. The Miners hadn’t had such a talent at the sport’s key position ever. Well, the early results are mixed, but you can see that Nelson, and to much credit, Walden too, is starting to give this program some juice and not just on offense. The Miners were very competitive at Texas last week, losing 27-10 while only being outgained by 81 yards by the team that went into the season ranked #1 in the country. In the week prior, the offense rolled, putting up 472 yards in a 42-17 win over UT-Martin. They get a chance on Saturday to put it all together against a Louisiana-Monroe team that was beaten 73-0 at Alabama in its last outing.
Based on that ugly result, we are being told to fade ULM this week because of this system: Both college football teams coming off a game which was decided by a margin 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next contest, going just 140-185-1 ATS (43.1%) over the last decade-plus. In my opinion, UTEP has much more going for it now than ULM does, and this week’s line doesn’t reflect it. My effective yards per play numbers show the Miners as being far superior as well.
College Football Week 4 Best Bet: I’ll lay the 5.5 points with UTEP
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