College Football Week 5 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
Last weekend was a solid one for me in both college and pro football, and hopefully beyond my best bets writeups, you caught the info I shared on my CFB Effective Yards per Play Ratings and how there were some significant disparities between those and the actual lines, as those top 15 games went 12-3 ATS.
At this time, however, I feel like I owe it to both myself and readers to issue a public service announcement regarding lines, because this has been a particularly crazy season thus far in terms of how many games have landed close to the point spread, how lines have moved throughout the week, and how crucial it has been to grab the best numbers around. I’m at somewhat of a disadvantage in that regard, in that I consistently use the lines at DraftKings at the time of my selections, and in my closing logs. That said, even with a record of 39-33-3 ATS (54.2%), I regret to say that I could be about 5 games improved had I picked at a better number or at the closing number. That is the nature of the beast, I guess though, so hopefully you’re doing better than I am on these plays if you’ve tailed them consistently. As usual, for Week 5, I’ve scoured through this week’s VSiN College Football Analytics Report and have come up with these leans.
Thursday, October 1, 2026
North Texas (+1.5) at Tulsa
It’s clear North Texas made a good move in hiring a veteran coach to try to keep things together after last year’s 12-win team lost its head coach to a P4 program and most of its roster to the transfer portal. Neal Brown hasn’t been perfect, but his Mean Green team is still very potent offensively, putting up 39.5 PPG, which equates to an “effective” number of 43.8 when considering who they’ve played so far. Clearly, the upset rout of UNLV has been the highlight.
At the same time, Tulsa got off to a 3-0 start and is 3-1 now, despite scoring 17 PPG fewer per game on an effective basis. In fact, if you look at my Effective Yards per Play line disparities for this week, you’ll see that this game indicates UNT should be an 11.2-point road favorite. While a number like that would be ridiculous, my power ratings also say that Brown’s team should be a 3.1-point favorite. That said, as I look at Thursday night’s game in Tulsa, I have to wonder whether the right team is favored, and why 2/3 of the handle is on Tulsa at DK.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go with North Texas +1.5 to open conference season with a win
Friday, October 2, 2026
Pittsburgh(+3) at (108) Virginia Tech
Anyone who has followed my best bets this year probably knows that I was a big proponent of head coach James Franklin and his rebuilt portal squad early in the season. However, I think Friday night’s game will be a different animal for the Hokies as it is their first true tough test. I’m not sure wins over VMI, ODU, Maryland, and BC have them ready for a physical opponent like Pitt, who is also 4-0.
Yes, I know the atmosphere in Blacksburg will be electric, but once that settles, I have to question which of these teams is actually better. My Effective Yards per Play projected line says Pitt has performed at a level better than Virginia Tech where it should be a 16.1-point road favorite.
The Panthers are also coming off an easy 59-0 win over Bucknell, which has them in position for two systems: 1) Over the course of the last thirteen years, CFB teams that scored 58 or more points in a game while allowing fewer than 10 have carried on the momentum well in the next outing, going 164-123 ATS (57.1%). 2) CFB teams that see their point spread in one game being at least 52 points worse than the prior game have performed very well in that follow-up contest since 2012, going 111-83 ATS (57.2%). In terms of this rivalry, Pittsburgh is 10-6 SU and 13-3 ATS in the last 16 matchups with Virginia Tech as well. I look for a very competitive game Friday night.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Pitt +3 at Virginia Tech on Friday
Saturday, October 3, 2026
Bowling Green at Miami (OH) (Total 43.5)
After QB David McComb was declared doubtful for Saturday’s game versus Bowling Green, it appears that Miami (OH) will be down to its 3rd-string QB for this rivalry contest. Concerns already linger about the Redhawks’ offense, which has averaged 28.5 PPG, including 45 against Holy Cross. Now, as they begin conference play, head coach Frank Martin will likely have to rely heavily on his defense. This program has been known for that in his tenure. In fact, Miami (OH) is on a 43-31-1 (58.1%) Under the total run over the last six seasons.
Of course, Bowling Green has been offensively challenged under head coach Eddie George, putting up just 20 total points in the last three games. Not surprisingly, the total is set at a low 43.5, and 98% of the handle is on the Under as of Thursday. Normally that disparity would concern me, but since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 49 or lower, 72%+ supermajority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 72-59 (55%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the supermajority handle has been sharp.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go UNDER 43.5 in Bowling Green-Miami Ohio
Virginia at Florida State (Total 51.5)
Take away Virginia’s 28-27 loss to West Virginia in a rare neutral contest environment in Charlotte, and the Cavaliers’ defense has yielded just 14 total points in three other games. In fact, they are holding teams 17 points below their effective point averages. FSU’s effective PF is 35 points, so that would mean we should only expect the Seminoles to get about 18 here, perhaps up to 21 for home-field allowance. With a line of UVS -2.5, that would project out to a 24-21 type of game, a full 7.5 points below the posted total of 51.5.
What’s more, with that tight point spread, we will again have this successful ACC system in play: Under the total is 72-50-1 (59%) in ACC expected-tight matchups (within -3.5 to +3.5 line range) with totals <= 55.5 since 2015. Head-to-head, we also see Under the total go 6-0 in the last six UVA-FSU meetings in Tallahassee. And the final clincher for me is finding 92% of the handle and 80% of the bests for this game looking Over. Typical public response.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go UNDER 51.5 in Virginia-Florida State
Miami (FL) at Clemson (Total 48.5)
This week’s point spread showing Miami as a 16.5-point road favorite represents the biggest underdog line for Clemson in the head coach Dabo Swinney era. Does this mean I think the Tigers will be heavily motivated to prove themselves on Saturday? Well, yeah, they probably will be, but I’m not sure it will make a difference. What I do think might happen, especially with a freshman QB now under center, is that Swinney will try to gum this game up and slow it to a crawl. A lower-scoring contest is his team’s only chance to compete with the Hurricanes.
Early in the season, both programs have been pretty solid on defense from an “effective” standpoint, with Miami allowing an effective 9.2 PPG and Clemson 15.4. The Tigers are also pretty strong in limiting big plays from opposing offenses. The total is set at 48.5, and while only 31% of the bets favor Under, 78% of the handle does. That is usually a sign of “sharp” money on the Under. Plus, since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 49 or lower, 72%+ supermajority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 72-59 (55%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the supermajority handle has been sharp.
College Football Best Bet: Let’s go UNDER 48.5 in Miami-Clemson
Auburn (+7/54.5) at Tennessee
It sure looked like a different Tennessee offense last week against Texas than we got used to seeing in the first three games when they put up 47.7 PPG. QB Faizon Brandon, a star in the first three games, looked more willing to take hits than throw the ball away or get picked. It’s not unusual for the Volunteers to get stymied offensively in the head coach Josh Heupel era against good teams. In fact, in games at home with single-digit point spreads over the last four seasons, they’ve scored just 23.3 PPG.
These are usually the tough SEC games. With the Vols set up as 7-point favorites here, you have to assume this will be another tough one, as Auburn’s been pretty solid defensively, holding teams 15.2 PPG below their effective averages to date. I expect a very competitive game and see two potential wagers. I have systems to back the logic: 1) Unranked teams on the road versus a ranked team and playing as favorites or underdogs of 7 or fewer points have gone 91-59 Under the total (60.7%) dating back to October 2016. 2) Teams coming off a loss at home to a top-10-ranked team are just 139-147 SU and 127-157-2 ATS (44.7%) in the next game since October 2016. 3) Ranked teams coming off a close loss of 7 points or fewer and playing an unranked team are 124-30 SU but just 64-86-4 ATS (42.7%) since December of ’15. Both of those last ones go against Tennessee, of course.
College Football Best Bet: Let’s go Auburn +7 and/or UNDER 54.5 at Tennessee
Texas-San Antonio (-11.5) at Rice
Last year, at home, UTSA put up 61 points in routing Rice by 48, the program’s highest point total in any game since 2019. It wasn’t much of a surprise either, as UTSA is on runs of 9-1 SU and 6-1 ATS against Rice. This season, the Roadrunners have a senior QB in Owen McCown, and come off a game putting up 59 points on Colorado State. The only game they didn’t score well recently with McCown under center was Week 3 versus Texas, perhaps the most physically imposing defense in the country.
That said, both my effective UTSA offense and Rice defense calculations project head coach Jeff Traylor’s offense to put up around 38 points. In which case, with a line total combo of UTSA -11.5/55.5, how is Rice expected to keep up? Those same calculations for Rice show an output of 19 points, so yes, I’m indicating UTSA is underpriced here by a TD based upon what we’ve seen from each team. With UTSA a veteran team and starting conference play, I trust the numbers. Plus, AAC favorites in the -7 to -12 line range have gone 116-19 SU and 76-53-6 (58.9%) ATS in conference play since 2015.
College Football Best Bet: Give me UTSA -11.5 at Rice
Michigan State (+10) at Wisconsin
Do we really believe Wisconsin is back at this point? Are the Badgers truly ready to perform as double-digit conference favorites? They haven’t been in that role at this time since last year, when they suffered an eventual 27-10 loss to Maryland. They lost one other time as Big Ten chalk since. Beyond their unfamiliarity with being expected to beat their conference rivals, other concerns remain.
First, underdogs are 6-5 SU and 9-2 ATS in the last 11 Spartans-Badgers meetings. Second, regarding the Badgers’ huge comeback win last week at Penn State, there are two systems now in play for this follow-up game: 1) Teams coming off an upset win over a Top 15-ranked team are 125-90 SU but just 94-120-1 ATS (43.9%) in the follow-up contest dating back to November 2016. 2) Teams still unranked even after beating a ranked team in the prior game are 86-41 SU but just 54-71-2 ATS (43.2%) when favored in the follow-up contest since November 2015. I’m not sure this Wisconsin team has turned the corner yet, and Sparty is usually a pesky underdog, and now is being led by a pesky underdog coach.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go with Michigan State +10 in Madison
Boston College (+21) at SMU
It’s entirely possible that SMU was simply overrated coming into this season, and for valid reasons too, as they brought back stud QB Kevin Jennings and had won 31 games over the past three seasons. However, the defense was relatively new, and the Jennings-led offense hasn’t clicked as well as expected. Sometimes it just happens. It doesn’t mean it will either, and this line for the Mustangs’ ACC tilt against Boston College reflects a different reality, as SMU is established as 3-TD favorites.
What’s more, bettors are still backing the underperforming hosts, with 80% of the handle and 75% of the bets on the hosts for this one. Since the start of the 2022 season, when more than 75% of the handle was on one side of an ATS wager, that majority has gone just 626-688 ATS (47.6%). As it is, laying big points with ranked hosts in conference play is dangerous: Ranked home favorites of more than 14 points are 357-28 SU but just 168-213-4 ATS (44.1%) versus unranked conference opponents since October 2015. The Golden Eagles have been sound defensively in the early going too, allowing an effective 17.4 PPG.
College Football Best Bet: Give me Boston College +21 to keep this relatively close
Texas Tech at Colorado (+12.5)
There is always a ton of public sentiment against Colorado since head coach Deion Sanders took over, as it seems bettors love to root against him. In this case, the DraftKings betting splits for the matchup with Texas Tech show an interesting dichotomy: 83% of bets are on the Red Raiders, but 75% of the handle is on Colorado. Most experts would interpret this as sharp money on Coach Prime’s team. My Effective Yards per Play line disparity data agrees with these sharps, as that metric shows up as #15 on my top 15 list for the week, with Colorado’s expected line at just +0.6.
Earlier in the year, I wrote a trend piece and described one particular situation in which Sanders has been very successful: getting his team back after losses. Colorado is 12-6 (66.7%) ATS in the last 18 games following a SU loss. They come off a competitive 23-13 decision at Baylor. If you’re looking for one final clincher, consider that Colorado is on a 5-0-1 ATS run versus Texas Tech, including a 41-27 win in Lubbock two years ago.
College Football Best Bet: I like Colorado (+12.5) chances to make a game out of this
UTEP (+22.5) at New Mexico
I love looking for spots throughout a season where oddsmakers suddenly change their opinion of a team, and their line reflects newfound respect. Typically, their initial thought is the correct one. For New Mexico, it seems oddsmakers originally saw the solid 2025 season as an anomaly, especially after the Lobos lost their starting QB before the season even began. Their early lines didn’t reflect a team that won nine games and was one of the biggest surprises last season.
Well, after a 4-0 ATS start, which included a near-miss upset of Oklahoma two weeks ago and a rout of New Mexico State last year, the Lobos have apparently caught oddsmakers’ attention. And I think they have gone too far this time, setting up a point spread of -22.5 against UTEP. Now, the Miners don’t have a whole lot going for them, but my Effective Play-by-Play numbers say this spread should be only -14.1, and underdogs are 6-1 ATS in the last seven Miners-Lobos meetings. Recall that New Mexico was only 2-3 ATS as home chalk last year under first-year head coach Jason Eck and is 7-16 ATS in that role over the last decade. Oh, and by the way, this is also a 96% handle game on the hosts.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go UTEP to keep it under the +22.5 line
Baylor at Arizona State (-4)
Arizona State had two weeks to celebrate its 24-17 win in London over Kansas, meaning the Sun Devils are not only 1-0 in conference play, but they are also coming off a bye for this game against Baylor. It will be the first time that the Bears have visited Tempe since 1990. It is also their first true road game of the 2026 season.
ASU wasn’t great in beating Kansas, but they are set up for a nice system backing them because of it: The system is called “Conference wins while struggling offensively are momentum builders”, and it reads as follows: Over the last thirteen years, college football teams that won a conference game despite gaining less than 250 yards of offense have used that victory to build momentum, going 86-63 ATS (57.7%) in the follow-up contest. On top of that, Arizona State is 11-2 (84.6%) ATS in the last 13 games as a favorite under head coach Kenny Dillingham. This is a tough scheduling spot for Baylor, and my power ratings and effective play-by-play ratings both say ASU is slightly underpriced.
College Football Best Bet: Give me a rested Arizona State -4 over Baylor
Cincinnati at Arizona (-7)
So, Cincinnati is 4-0, 3-1 ATS, and coming off an upset at home versus Kansas State in its first Big 12 game of the season. Meanwhile, Arizona is 0-4 ATS, supposedly not clicking, and yet, oddsmakers have no problem installing the Wildcats as touchdown home favorites. As I like to often ask…what gives? Perhaps the experts behind the counter know how difficult this trip is for the Bearcats, crossing two time zones to visit Tucson for the first time.
They are also probably aware that this is a horrible trend spot historically for them, as Cincinnati is 11-15 SU and 9-17 ATS (34.6%) in revenge mode since 2016, as well as 7-18 ATS (28%) as an underdog since 2021 and 11-23 (32.4%) ATS in Conference games since 2022. Sharps seem to be in agreement with me in that 53% of the bets, but 73% of the handle is on Arizona. When a 68%+ majority of the handle was on small home favorites of 7 points or fewer for an ATS wager since the start of the 2023 season, this majority group is 87-71 ATS (55.1%). Bettors are wisely valuing home field advantage in these games that are expected to be competitive.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll take Arizona -7 to handle business versus Cincinnati
Arkansas at Texas A&M (-14)
On the surface, these programs are fairly similar, with both sitting at 2-2 after four weeks. Arkansas was expected to struggle this season in rebuilding mode for first-year head coach Ryan Silverfield. A&M’s two recent poor performances were not expected. The chances of the Aggies rebounding are much stronger, though, as the Arkansas program’s problems stem from low donor interest fueling poor NIL standards. In the SEC, that is hard to overcome.
For this week, coming off their best performance of the season, a 34-6 rout of Tulsa, the Razorbacks will look to overcome this trend: Arkansas is 4-17 (19%) ATS coming off SU win since 2020. For me, though, backing the Aggies comes down almost entirely to believing in head coach Mike Elko and QB Marcel Reed. My Power Ratings show A&M -15.3, and my Bettors’ Ratings show -21.9 for this game. The markets can’t be that far off, can they? Despite nine straight head-to-head contests decided by 12 points or less, I have a gut feeling this one will be easy for A&M.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll take Texas A&M -14 to rebound big time vs. Arkansas
Alabama at Mississippi State (Total 59.5)
Naturally, this week’s Alabama-Mississippi State matchup is being billed as a battle of two of the best young quarterbacks in college football. I stress the term young, as both Keelon Russell and Kemario Taylor are freshmen. Is it a lot to put on both to have huge games in such a spot? It could be, and for that reason, I might suggest looking at an Under here. We saw what happened with young QB Faizon Brandon of Tennessee last week against Texas. He was somewhat overwhelmed by the environment and the Texas defense and played very conservatively.
Mississippi State, of course, comes off a huge win over Missouri, although the Tigers did get a better handle on Taylor than previous teams did. Teams coming off a win over a ranked team and playing another ranked team are just 73-98 SU and 75-93-3 ATS (44.6%) since September 2019. They are also 83-45 Under the total (64.8%) in these next contests dating back to September of 2021. That later system is a big one: 38 games over .500. That doesn’t even touch the fact that 99% of the money as of this writing was on an Over here. That is rarely a positive. I tend to trust Alabama’s defense more in big games. This is a big game.
College Football Best Bet: Give me UNDER 59.5 in Alabama-Mississippi State
Army at Louisiana Tech (Total 46.5)
If you missed it in this week’s VSiN College Football Analytics Report, a 14-0 trend deserves consideration. Louisiana Tech is 14-0 (100%) to the Over as a home underdog since 2016. The Bulldogs have certainly done their part to help the scoring output in these rare games, as in the six most recent instances, they put up 34.5 PPG themselves. Of course, whenever Army is involved, it takes a little more discernment to bet an Over. That said, my Effective Strength Ratings show that this game should see 51.2 points based upon recent performances.
On top of that, this game falls into what I refer to as the Under trap, as almost all of the bets and handle are looking at an Over here at DraftKings, and since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 46.5 or lower, 72%+ supermajority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 216-183 (54.1%). This also does not produce a ton of plays here in the grand scheme, but the more public option of number of bets has been pretty good when going against the grain.
College Football Best Bet: Give me OVER 46.5 in Army-Louisiana Tech
Florida at Missouri (+5.5)
Does this seem like a very similar spot to last week when Ole Miss went to Florida after a huge emotional win the prior week versus LSU? In this case, it is the Gators on the other end of that emotional challenge, as they come off the huge program-validating win over the Rebels but go into a tough environment in Columbia. Making matters worse, they are saddled as 5.5-point road favorites and are getting backed heavily by 79% of the handle and 85% of the bets according to DraftKings on Wednesday. When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 388-430 ATS (47.4%).
Not only is Missouri typically tough as nails at home, 24-3 SU in the last 27 and 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight as home dog, but there are also two very strong ranked team systems in play, one on Missouri, and one against Florida: 1) In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 228-118 SU and 198-139-9 ATS (58.8%). 2) Teams coming off a win over a ranked team and playing another ranked team are just 73-98 SU and 75-93-3 ATS (44.6%) since September 2019.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go Missouri +5.5 here while not ignoring a shot at an upset
West Virginia at Iowa State (-3.5)
Admittedly, I was one of those selling the doom-and-gloom story about Iowa State this year, but the Cyclones have humbled me a bit by proving the program was in strong enough shape to survive all the offseason carnage they went through. A tip of the hat goes to head coach Jimmy Rogers, who has steadied the ship the same way he did at Washington State before last season. The Cyclones are 2-2 and could easily be 3-1 had they finished off the game in Iowa City. My Effective Yards per Play numbers say they are even better than what they’ve shown, and for this game, the theoretical line based on that metric indicates ISU -15.5.
Of course, that metric is a two-team build, and West Virginia certainly has played its part, underperforming on multiple occasions thus far, including last week’s ugly 41-24 home loss to OSU. So, both of these teams are coming off losses; who responds better? Historically, that has been ISU, and like I said, the program seems to be on stable footing: Iowa State is 37-20-1 ATS (64.9%) following up a SU loss since 2015. In head-to-head play, favorites are 8-2 SU and ATS in the last 10 of the WVU-ISU series. This seems like a game where home field should be the difference.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go Iowa State -3.5 in Ames versus West Virginia
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