Week 5 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Matt Youmans
By definition, an underdog is a player or team that is predicted to lose a game. The origin of the term comes from dogfighting, where the losing dog ended up pinned under the winning dog. But as Michael Vick could attest, there is no point spread in dogfighting, and the point spread is the great equalizer in football betting.
It’s easy to bet on the superior teams. It takes courage — and some would say you have to be a little crazy — to consistently play underdogs. Last week, I bet on Tennessee as a 5-point underdog to No. 1 Texas, and the result was fortunate as the Longhorns won 20-17 but failed to cover. This week, I’m betting against No. 4 Miami and No. 5 Ohio State and it might not be a fun experience. Here are my college football best bets for Week 5.
Michigan (-6) at Minnesota
After spending all four September Saturdays at home, the Wolverines hit the road for the first time. It appears young quarterback Bryce Underwood could be turning the corner due to better teaching from Kyle Whittingham and Michigan’s new coaching staff. Underwood passed for 276 yards and two touchdowns with one interception in a 20-19 loss to Iowa last week. He finally resembled a competent passer, but now he’s got to do it on the road. The Gophers have got the better quarterback in veteran Drake Lindsey and they can run the ball with Darius Taylor and TJ Thomas. Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck was a double-digit dog in a win at Washington last week, when Fleck’s defense produced seven sacks.
Best Bet: Minnesota +6
Ohio State (-14.5) at Iowa
The Buckeyes pack the offensive firepower to blow out the Hawkeyes, who never are a sexy pick. The underdog needs to be tougher and turn this into an ugly game. Iowa ranks No. 1 in the nation in scoring defense (8.0 ppg), and its offense is decent, which is an upgrade from most years. Ohio State has a few defensive weaknesses that were exposed while allowing 462 total yards, including 199 on the ground, to Illinois.
Sometimes you must trust the system. Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz, who’s in his 28th year, and defensive coordinator Phil Parker just find ways. Last season, the Hawkeyes covered the spread while losing close games to Indiana (20-15) and Oregon (18-16). How are the Hawkeyes going to contain Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin and wideout Jeremiah Smith? Hopefully, Ferentz and Parker find the answer.
Best Bet: Iowa +14.5
Purdue at Illinois (-10)
This is a Big Ten opponent that Purdue usually beats, something that is seldom said. The Boilermakers are 7-3 straight up in the past 10 meetings with the Fighting Illini. When the rivals met in Champaign in 2024, the Illini survived 50-49 in overtime as a 22-point favorite. A perfect storm is brewing here as two of the nation’s top passing offenses face two of the nation’s worst pass defenses. Purdue quarterback Ryan Browne put up 38 points at UCLA two weeks ago, and he steps down in class after getting shut down by a dominant Notre Dame defense.
Best Bet: Purdue +10
California at UNLV (-2.5)
As a freshman, Cal quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele was a phenom. His sophomore season is so far a disappointment, and his regression has a lot to do with first-time coach Tosh Lupoi and first-time offensive coordinator Jordan Somerville looking lost. To make matters worse for the Golden Bears, star running back Adam Mohammed, who has 336 of the team’s 406 yards, is hobbled and listed as questionable with a left knee injury.
The Rebels, returning home after a three-game trip that took them from Hawaii to Texas to Ohio, show up with the better offense led by quarterback Jackson Arnold and running back Jett Thomas. UNLV coach Dan Mullen needs this one and he should get it against a weak Cal coaching staff. No excuses.
Best Bet: UNLV -2.5
Miami (FL) (-17) at Clemson
Dabo Swinney kept his critics quiet for a week as Clemson went to Berkeley and beat Cal 24-10 in a hideous offensive showing. The Tigers limited Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele to 119 passing yards and picked him off twice. A big problem for Clemson is freshman quarterback Tait Reynolds, who passed for only 108 yards in his second start. Another big problem for Clemson will be the Miami offensive machine triggered by quarterback Darian Mensah (88.7% completions, 14 touchdowns, no interceptions), running back Mark Fletcher and speed receiver Malachi Toney. The Hurricanes crushed three cupcake opponents yet struggled some and failed to cover in a 33-20 win at Wake Forest in mid-September. Everyone has lost faith in Dabo, but maybe he’s got a trick up his sleeve as a big dog in a night game in Death Valley.
Best Bet: Clemson +17
San Jose State at Hawaii (-3)
Hawaii coach Timmy Chang’s run-and-shoot offense was horrible in September, producing an average of 14.3 points in losses to Stanford, UNLV and Wyoming. Micah Alejado has three touchdown passes and has been sacked 11 times. Alejado will be highly motivated for this matchup against San Jose quarterback Luke Weaver, who was Alejado’s backup last season. Weaver stepped in for an injured Alejado and passed for the winning touchdown in the final seconds of the Hawaii Bowl. Weaver threw four interceptions in a loss to Fresno State last week. With their season on the brink, this is a huge game for Chang and Alejado, and the Warriors usually play at a much higher level in Honolulu.
Best Bet: Hawaii -3
Last week: 5-2-1 against the spread
Season: 17-5-5
For more college football Week 5 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 5 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
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