College Football Week 5 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
Finally, a good week of college football best bets helped slow the negative momentum I had at the start of the season. My 16 opinions last weekend went 11-5 ATS to get me back to 35-38 ATS (47.9%). This week’s slate is loaded with great games, including LSU/Ole Miss, Alabama/Georgia, and Oregon/Penn State. There are also a few tough road tests for some ranked teams. It could wind up being a very impactful Saturday for the CFP picture when we look back. This week’s VSiN College Football Analytics Report has great information on those games as well as many others. I pored through that, and again looked closely at my Effective Play-by-Play Strength Ratings to come up with my favorite games of the weekend.
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 26, 2025
Florida State at Virginia
For as much as I am very impressed with what Florida State has doen so far, following up the season opening upset with back-to-back run it in on weaker opponent wins, I think there are a lot of people underestimating the difficulty of this Friday night spot in Charlottesville, where they haven’t won since 2010. At last check, this is one of the most public games of the week, with 85% of bets at DraftKings on the FSU side.
You have to remember, with the Alabama win now almost a month ago, the Seminoles haven’t really faced a test in a while. In fact, the rout of Kent State last week doesn’t really help in this situation: FBS teams that gain 735 or more yards offensively in their prior game have gone just 31-45 ATS (40.8%) in the follow-up contest since 2012. I think FSU backers have to also be concerned that their team is 11-21 (34.4%) ATS in Road/Neutral games since 2019, and 11-21 (34.4%) ATS in Conference games since 2021. For as much as this is one of my new Effective Play-by-Play Top 15 side plays, I’m not sure anyone has intentionally run up their numbers more than FSU has, and that has so much to do with their edge in that. Plus, the Cavaliers’ offense has been prolific with QB Chandler Morris running the show, putting up 45.5 PPG so far. That makes them a dangerous live underdog.
College Football Week 5 Best Bet: I’ll take the +7 points with Virginia
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 27, 2025
Liberty at Old Dominion
How do you know when a team gives up? I’m not sure, but we could probably take a closer look at Liberty over the last few weeks for a potential example of a team. Head coach Jamey Chadwell’s team has truly unraveled since their Liberty Bowl loss after the 2023 season, and although they went 8-4 last year, they totally underperformed. That is continuing this season. In fact, over their last 17 games, the Flames have flamed out with a 3-14 ATS mark.
Now we see a double-digit underdog line awaiting them at Old Dominion nonetheless. This 16.5-point line at the beginning of the season would have raised some eyebrows. At this point, with ODU coming off a rout of Virginia Tech on the road, it may even be too low. In fact, my new Effective Play-by-Play ratings indicate the Monarchs could be favored by -45.1. I have to go with what the numbers say.
College Football Week 5 Best Bet: Give me Old Dominion -16.5 vs. reeling Liberty
Notre Dame at Arkansas
I’m going to keep this one a little shorter and sweeter. The whole world knows by now that Notre Dame lost its first two games of the season, at Miami and at home to Texas A&M. Those setbacks were nothing to scoff at, and in fact, at this point in the young season, my latest strength ratings show that the Irish have faced the toughest schedule in the country. It was very good to see them bounce back with a 56-point effort in a big win over Purdue last week.
I do expect the momentum to continue, as currently, ND is scoring 24 PPG more than their opponents effectively allow. That would put the Irish at an expected 42 points in this one. With a total of 64.5, it means Arkansas would only be due for 22 or 23 points, meaning a comfortable win for head coach Marcus Freeman’s team. Plus, with Notre Dame boasting a 30-10 ATS (75%) in road/neutral games in the last six seasons, I am not ready to write them off.
College Football Week 5 Best Bet: Let’s go Notre Dame -4 at Arkansas
California at Boston College
Last week, heading into the game against San Diego State, I heard so many so-called experts praising the talents of Cal QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, proclaiming him as one of the best players in the country. After the 34-0 loss to the Aztecs, I swear I haven’t heard a peep from those same people. That brutal performance by JKS and the Golden Bears leaves them in a tough spot for this week, as unexpected blowout games are bad future indicators for both teams.
The system says that both college football teams coming off a game which was decided by a margin of 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next contest, going just 142-186-1 ATS (43.3%) over the last decade-plus. This is also a very tough travel spot for Cal, as it will be one of the longest trips any team will make all season long, and the game is an early 12:30 p.m. West Coast start. If you recall, I used the opposite travel scenario against BC when they went out to Stanford and laid an egg. I also like the fact that Boston College is 26-14 (65%) ATS in Conference games since 2020, and Cal is very new to the ACC.
College Football Week 5 Best Bet: I’ll take Boston College as the -6.5 point favorite
Virginia Tech at NC State
I don’t know the exact record of teams in games right in the aftermath of a coach firing, but we are going to be witnesses to the trials and tribulations of both Virginia Tech and Oklahoma State this week. Truthfully, coaches only get fired from a program when a team fails to live up to expectations, whether those expectations were realistic or not. I believe they were for former Hokies head coach Brent Pry. Following the 2023 season, they put themselves back on the map with a 7-6 record and a rout of Tulane in the Military Bowl. The team had a ton of momentum and experience back. However, since that game, they are just 7-10 SU and 6-11 ATS. Even last week’s 38-6 win over Wofford fell short of oddsmakers’ expectations. Virginia Tech has really been a disappointment this season, and my latest Effective Play-by-Play Ratings show that they should be about a +23.9 point underdog to a NC State team that still has all of its goals in front of it. And by the way, in the most recent head-to-head meeting, the Wolfpack beat that upstart 2023 Hokies team 35-28 in Blacksburg.
College Football Week 5 Best Bet: I’ll lay the 10.5 points with NC State
Duke at Syracuse
I can see how so many people have jumped on the side of Syracuse for this week’s matchup with Duke, as the Orange are off an impressive upset win at Clemson and are playing as 5.5-point home dogs. That said, with 78% of the bets at DraftKings in on Syracuse here, I question whether or not this heavily public group of bettors knows that Orange QB Steve Angeli was lost to an Achilles injury last week, and how big of a loss it is for their team. Angeli was having a fantastic season, having already thrown for 1,316 yards and 10 TDs before the injury.
Back to the wagering disparity, when 76%+ of the number of bets were on the home side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone just 192-220 ATS (46.6%). In 2022, it was 46.5%. In 2023, it was 46.7%. In 2024, it was 46.6%. This is incredible consistency. Head coach Fran Brown’s team also steps in front of what has been a great conference game betting system: Teams playing at home in conference games as dogs of more than 3 points when coming off a huge upset win as a double-digit road underdog have been a play against team, 28-47 ATS (37.3%) since 2010. Duke has been inconsistent overall in the early going but did come up with a nice win over NC State last week for head coach Manny Diaz.
College Football Week 5 Best Bet: Let’s lay the 5.5 points on the road with Duke
Utah State at Vanderbilt
I faded Vanderbilt unsuccessfully last week, but as I look back, I think it was a one-sided wager. You really should consider the situations for both teams. I don’t think I gave enough credence to just how bad Georgia State has been in the early going. I paid the price by putting my faith in a team that has allowed 48 PPG through its first four contests. I won’t make that mistake again. That said, I am still going to fade Vanderbilt this week, as I don’t feel much differently than last week when I claimed the Commodores were getting too big for their britches.
This line (-22.5) versus Utah State is going to be a much bigger challenge than last week, specifically because new head coach Bronco Mendenhall appears to have his team playing gritty football and much improved from a year ago. The Aggies are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS this season, scoring 36.8 PPG. It isn’t like they haven’t played anyone either, as they have a win over Air Force and a competitive effort against Texas A&M on their ledger. This is also a very public game at DK, with 77% of the handle and 85% of the bets on Vandy. When 76%+ of the number of bets were on the home side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone just 192-220 ATS (46.6%). Head coach Clark Lea’s team is also on an 8-13 (38.1%) ATS skid following a SU win. In a battle of 4-0 ATS teams, I’d rather take the underdog, a big underdog.
College Football Week 5 Best Bet: Let’s go Utah State +22.5 in Nashville
New Mexico State at New Mexico
New head coach Jason Eck has the spirits high in Albuquerque in his first year with the Lobos. He appears to be building on some of the progress the program made last year in just one season under Bronco Mendenhall. That said, even in a season in which they were much better than rival New Mexico State, they barely covered, winning 50-40 as 9.5-point favorites. That isn’t a surprise, since New Mexico State is on an 8-2 ATS run versus New Mexico, including 7-1 ATS in the last eight visits to Albuquerque.
When we last saw the Lobos, they were routing UCLA on the road. That doesn’t set them up for success this week, as unexpected blowout games are bad future indicators for both teams. In fact, both college football teams coming off a game which was decided by a margin of 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next contest, going just 142-186-1 ATS (43.3%) over the last decade-plus. Plus, with this line sitting at NM -14, consider that New Mexico is 6-19 (24%) ATS as a favorite since 2018, and that New Mexico State is 32-23 (58.2%) ATS in the last four seasons. With neither team an offensive juggernaut, I expect a closer game between these in-state foes than the experts do.
College Football Week 5 Best Bet: Give me New Mexico State +14 at New Mexico
Cincinnati at Kansas
There might not be another game this week in which the Analytics Report likes one side more than the other on the point spread. First off, this Cincy-Kansas Big 12 tilt is a very publicly wagered contest as of Wednesday, with 90% of the dollars and 87% of the bets on the Jayhawks. I don’t need to share with you again what that typically means. However, I will share a few other analytical tidbits as reasons why I like Cincinnati in an underdog spot.
First, with the Bearcats coming off a 70-0 win in which they were laying -48.5 to Northwestern State, CFB teams that see their point spread in one game being at least 52 points worse than the prior game have performed very well in that follow-up contest since 2012, going 100-70 ATS (58.8%). Ride teams off of uber-dominant performances: Over the course of the last twelve years, CFB teams that scored 58 or more points in a game while allowing fewer than 10 have carried on the momentum well in the next outing, going 150-112 ATS (57.3%). My new Effective Play-by-Play Ratings also show that by that metric, Cincy should be favored by 14.6 points, not an underdog. As it is, Kansas is on a 6-17 (26.1%) ATS as a Favorite. With the Bearcats already having covered an underdog line in the state of Kansas, we’ll look for another.
College Football Week 5 Best Bet: I’ll be backing Cincinnati +4.5 in Lawrence
Arizona at Iowa State
A pair of undefeated teams will meet in Ames, IA this weekend, and the game isn’t getting a lot of fanfare, primarily because most fans don’t have much respect for how good Arizona is or could be this season. In fact, the wagering at DraftKings is actually quite one-sided at this point, with 78% of the bets in on host Iowa State. If you need a reminder of what that has meant, when 76%+ of the number of bets were on the home side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone just 192-220 ATS (46.6%). In 2022, it was 46.5%. In 2023, it was 46.7%. In 2024, it was 46.6%. This is incredible consistency.
Getting back to just how good the Wildcats might be, they have outscored teams 111-26 in the first three contests. Have they all been pushover games? Well, no. In fact, they beat the same Kansas State team that ISU did, by 3 points more. Furthermore, my Effective Play-by-Play game line discrepancy Top 15 list finds this contest on it, indicating that Arizona has played to a level that would make them -7.3-point favorites on the road. As such, I expect QB Noah Fafita (712 PY, 6 Total TDs, 0 INTs) & Co. to prove very competitive here.
College Football Week 5 Best Bet: Give me Arizona +6.5 as the dog at Iowa State
Tennessee at Mississippi State
How much does momentum mean to a team that might be feeling a bit of disrespect from the oddsmakers after their 4-0 start? How hungry is a team that is finally experiencing success after years of frustration? I think we are seeing a Mississippi State team that is finally buying into what second-year head coach Jeff Lebby has been building. By no means do I think Tennessee is going to come into Starkville and roll over the Bulldogs.
It’s been a tough three-year span for the MSU program, and if you couldn’t tell by the massive celebration a few weeks ago following the upset of Arizona State, this fan base is fully behind their team. As it is, Mississippi State is 19-12 (61.3%) ATS at home since 2021. I also believe that the Bulldogs have the offensive line and QB talent/experience in Blake Shapen to match up with the Vols and not be overwhelmed by the stakes. I look for MSU to get to 5-0 ATS.
College Football Week 5 Best Bet: I got Mississippi State +7.5 in yet another highly public favorite game
Kentucky at South Carolina
We have a SEC game with two very strong defenses going, and the stakes of the game are such that the loser will find themselves in some real trouble going forward, as both face extremely tough schedules the rest of the way. I indicate that both defenses are tough as UK is allowing 14.5 effective points per game and SC is yielding 11.9. This is determined by both past opponent averages and schedule strength. I expect this game to be played close to the vest, as they would say, especially with Wildcats’ QB Zach Calzada questionable to play.
This has also been a very low-scoring head-to-head series, as Under the total is 9-1 in the last 10 of the SC-UK rivalry. Most of the bettors at DK are agreeing with me here, as 72% of the handle, the usually sharper indicator, are on the Under. Recently, since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 49 or lower, 72%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 57-42 (56.7%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority has been sharp.
College Football Week 5 Best Bet: Let’s go Under 45.5 in Kentucky-South Carolina
LSU at Ole Miss
Those of you perhaps questioning as to whether or not Ole Miss is worthy of being over a field goal favorite to LSU might want to go back in and check the Tigers’ early resume again. It certainly doesn’t look as good as it once did, as wins over Clemson and Florida have certainly lost their luster with those teams’ continued struggles. In fact, with as close as LSU’s games were in those two key contests, any concerns for head coach Brian Kelly’s team’s actual strength are more than warranted. A 4-0 record aside, my Effective Play-by-Play Ratings really do show which of these teams has performed better in the early going.
In fact, for this game, ranked #12 on the top 15 list for that metric’s disparity versus the actual line, the numbers show that Ole Miss should be favored by -15.1. This will also be one of four ranked vs. ranked games on the board, and we know what that means: in games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 202-98 SU and 176-116-8 ATS (60.3%). Historically, this has also been a home-dominated series: Home teams are on an 11-1 ATS surge in the Ole Miss-LSU series. This trip to Oxford is going to be very tough.
College Football Week 5 Best Bet: Let’s grab Ole Miss laying the -3.5 points
Tulane at Tulsa
Tulsa got me an easy winner last week at Oklahoma State, a game that eventually cost longtime OSU head coach Mike Gundy his job. We could argue all day about the merits of that move, but I’d concentrate on what that result means for Tulsa going forward. The truth is, it puts the Golden Hurricane in a difficult position this week versus a reeling Tulane team that was just thumped at Ole Miss. Look at this system affecting Tulsa: Teams playing at home in conference games as dogs of more than 3 points when coming off a huge upset win as a double-digit road underdog have been a play against team, 28-47 ATS (37.3%) since 2010. Not only that, but the Green Wave have performed far better in the chalk role than as underdogs: Tulane is 50-25 (66.7%) ATS as a favorite since 2014. Speaking of favored trends, have you seen the crazy head-to-head angle impacting this contest?
Favorites are on an absurd 18-1 SU and 17-2 ATS surge in the Tulane-Tulsa series.
College Football Week 5 Best Bet: Let’s lay the -15.5 points with Tulane
Western Kentucky at Missouri State
I mentioned before that Kentucky and South Carolina have been underrated defensive teams in the early going. The exact opposite could be said for this game between Western Kentucky and Missouri State. Both teams are actually underperforming offensively. WKU has an Effective Offensive PPG of 35.5, and while that may not seem bad, this is a program that is always in the mid- to upper-40s in that regard. MSU is sitting at 24.4 PPG right now, but 2.6 points below what their past opponents have allowed.
Perhaps more than anything statistical, however, I’m looking at the DK Betting Splits page as a reason for liking this total Under 59.5. With 55% of the money backing Under, this is the system I have my eye on: The average college football total has steadied at about 53. In games since the start of the 2022 season where the totals reached 59 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 61-47 (56.5%). This is pretty rare, as it occurred in only 108 of 2364 games.
College Football Week 5 Best Bet: Let’s go with this rare angle and back Under 59.5 in WKU-MSU
Oregon at Penn State
I think of all four of the ranked vs. ranked games on the schedule this week, backing Oregon would probably be the “easiest” play to make as a bettor. The jury is out on Penn State after three failed cover victories to start the season. Meanwhile, the Ducks have rolled to a 4-0 start behind QB Dante Moore and 50+ PPG. Is it the right play, however? I don’t think so, and my major concerns are with Moore and what will be an electric atmosphere in State College, PA, on Saturday night. Having transferred from UCLA and with just four Oregon starts against overmatched opponents to his credit, has he ever faced anything like he will see on Saturday night? No way.
Let’s not forget the three series home field advantage systems in these ranked games: 1) In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 202-98 SU and 176-116-8 ATS (60.3%). 2) Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 117-25 SU and 87-51-4 ATS (63%). 3) Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 60-22 SU and 53-26-3 ATS (67.1%) since 2017. All of these, of course, favor the Nittany Lions, who have held their #3 ranking all season. Also, remember that Penn State has become a reliable Big Ten favorite, 21-8 ATS in its last 29.
College Football Week 5 Best Bet: I’ll get behind Penn State -3.5
Alabama at Georgia
Ole Miss -3.5, Penn State -3.5, Georgia -3: The games and the strengths of the teams seem very similar. Only two of them look tough to take the favorite; the other looks much easier. As I always like to say, easy doesn’t win in football betting, particularly for high-profile contests. As such, I am looking to back Alabama here. There are several reasons. Among them, my Effective Play-by-Play Strength Ratings indicate that the Tide are the better team in the early going despite the 2-1 vs. 3-0 record deficiency. In fact, that strength metric says Alabama has performed at a level so much better that they should be favored by 21.3 points here!
In addition, this rivalry has been very competitive, and with these programs being on an elite tier for over a decade, both take offense to being labeled as the underdog against the other: Underdogs are 6-5 SU and 9-2 ATS in the last 13 of the Bama-UGA series. I’m very concerned for Georgia and its 0-3 ATS mark, especially after yielding 41 points to Tennessee two weeks ago. At the same time, ‘Bama seems to be refocused after the opening loss to FSU and is tracking now as expected.
College Football Week 5 Best Bet: I’ll take Alabama +3 in Athens
Ohio State at Washington
I have multiple sets of numerical strength indicators that I use to project theoretical game lines between teams. For this Ohio State-Washington clash, I don’t have any that put this game above OSU -7.8, with a few others showing close to a pick ’em projection. As such, I am of the belief that there is not enough credence being given to the difficulty of this game for the top-ranked Buckeyes. In fact, if you take out the 70-0 thrashing of Grambling, the numbers look much worse.
Granted, I fully believe in the OSU defense, which is currently allowing an effective 3.2 PPG. However, that has to be balanced against the Huskies’ offense, which is effectively scoring 53.6 PPG, fourth best in the country. None of this even takes into account how good Washington has been at home in recent years, having won 22 straight games while going 13-8-1 ATS. With the line dumping towards Washington (+8.5 to +7.5) despite heavy action on OSU, 82% of bets, I think those behind the counter know head coach Ryan Day’s team is in for a battle.
College Football Week 5 Best Bet: Give me Washington +7.5
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