College Football Week 6 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
Coming off another positive 10-8 ATS week of college football Best Bets, it brings my weekly winning streak to two! Over the last two weeks, I am 21-13 ATS, which has gotten me back to within one game of .500 at 45-46 ATS (49.5%) for the season. As much as this is still well below my personal standards, I am pleased that I am trending back in the right direction. Hopefully, Week 6 continues that trend. This week’s slate isn’t nearly as compelling as last week’s, but that doesn’t mean that there aren’t as many solid betting opportunities, and the Week 6 VSiN College Football Analytics Report has solid information as usual. I pored through that, and again looked closely at my Effective Play-by-Play Strength Ratings to come up with my favorite games of the weekend.
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 3, 2025
Western Kentucky at Delaware
To this point, Delaware has not been favored in any game versus a fellow FBS opponent in this first year of competition at that level. On a Friday night stand-alone game, the Blue Hens are going to play in that role for the first time against the team that most people believe is now the favorite in Conference USA, Western Kentucky. For some reason, I’m not buying it, and with my power rating indicating the line should actually be flipped (WKU -3.5).
I had to do a deep dive to check if there was an injury to Hilltoppers’ QB Maverick McIvor or some other situation that might be impacting this line. I saw nothing. McIvor has been heating up with 11 TDs so far, and his offense is scoring 35 PPG. I can see why 58% of the handle at DraftKings is on WKU. In which case, when a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 132-113 ATS (53.9%). Delaware is coming off a pair of impressive wins, but those were in the underdog role. This is a different animal.
College Football Week 6 Best Bet: I’ll start the CFB weekend with Western Kentucky +3
Colorado State at San Diego State
I’m going to do a quick explanation on my Effective Offense/Defense calculations and show why I am looking to back San Diego State on Friday night because of them. Colorado State is scoring an effective 19.4 PPG, meaning the Rams have scored this many points per game effectively against their opponent averages. They are coming up about 7.4 PPG on what their opponents typically allow. The San Diego State defense yields an effective 13.4 PPG. This would mean that on that half of the calculation, CSU would be expected to score 6.0 points.
The SDSU defense holds opposing offenses 13.4 PPG below their normal output so far. That half of the calculation also happens to project 6.0 points for the Rams (19.4-13.4). Taking those two calculations, obviously, this formula projects just 6 points for CSU. The Rams are only 6-point underdogs. The opposite calculations show SDSU scoring 19.9 PPG. Thus, we would be looking at about a 20-6 final using the metrics. I wouldn’t blame anyone for taking the Under or SDSU after seeing this math. However, with this betting system also in place, MWC favorites of >= 4-points on Friday Nights have gone 54-3 SU since 2016…I’ll opt for the hosts minus the points.
College Football Week 6 Best Bet: Give me San Diego State -6 to get it done on Friday night
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 4, 2025
Washington at Maryland
I’m quite sure we are going to find out on Saturday whether or not Maryland and its 4-0 record is for real. The Terps’ best victories have come over Florida Atlantic and Wisconsin, a pair of badly underachieving teams. This week, they got Washington, at home, and because of that victory in Madison a couple weeks ago, they will be up against a pretty sound betting system that say teams playing at home in conference games as dogs of more than 3-points when coming off a huge upset win as a double-digit road underdog have been a play against team, 28-49 ATS (36.4%) since 2010.
If you recall, I did have the Huskies last week against Ohio State. That game wound up a disappointment after a solid start from Washington, but one stat that stood out to me was that UW put up 7.5 yards per pass attempt against what could be the nation’s best defense and defensive backfield. The going will be much easier this week versus Maryland, and as such, I’m not surprised to see my Effective Play-by-Play Ratings showing that Washington should be favored by 15.3 points here.
College Football Week 6 Best Bet: I’ll take Washington -6.5 in Maryland this week
Wisconsin at Michigan
There are a few different tidbits on the Analytics Report this week pointing me towards the total in this Wisconsin-Michigan contest. First off, this has been a high-scoring series of late, with Over the total 8-2 in the last 10 of the head-to-head series. Second, there is heavy handle and bets action at DK on the Over side of the total as well, kind of a surprise to me. However, since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 46.5 or lower, 72%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 157-127 (55.3%). This system improved its win percentage in 2024 (57.8%). This does not produce a ton of plays here in the grand scheme, but the more public option of number of bets has been pretty good when going against the grain.
I also see an intriguing system noting that the Badgers are a potential play: Teams playing as conference road dogs of more than 7 points after not having played since 14 days ago are on a 141-108 ATS (56.6%) surge since 2010. I don’t think you can consider playing Wisconsin if you don’t think they are going to get at least 14 points, since Michigan has averaged about 36 PPG in its last 32 at home, do you? All my statistical models say this game should wind up in the mid- to high-40s.
College Football Week 6 Best Bet: I’ll go OVER 43.5 in Wisconsin-Michigan
Wake Forest at Virginia Tech
For this ACC battle between Wake Forest and Virginia Tech on Saturday, we have a pair of teams coming off opposite levels of the emotional spectrum following last week’s games. Wake blew a lead to Georgia Tech and lost a heartbreaker, 30-29. The Hokies rallied behind interim head coach Philip Montgomery for an unexpected 23-21 win at NC State. In my opinion, both results push me towards the Demon Deacons this week.
First off, they are being backed by about 69% of the bets at DraftKings as of Wednesday. That’s not a bad thing in this case, since when a majority of 55% or more of number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past three seasons, this majority group has gone 129-106 ATS (54.9%). Furthermore, 70% of the handle is also on Wake: When a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 132-113 ATS (53.9%).
They also have proven far better statistically in the early going. In fact, my Effective Play-by-Play Ratings show that they should be favored by 13.9 here, a variance from the line of 20.4 points, #2 difference for the week. On the Hokies’ side, they haven’t dealt with prosperity well lately: Virginia Tech is 8-22 (26.7%) ATS in their last 30 games following a SU win. My power rating line says VT -4, and that’s even with 2.6 points of home-field advantage built in. It might be less nowadays.
College Football Week 6 Best Bet: I’ll go with Wake Forest +7 in Blacksburg
Central Michigan at Akron
It has been somewhat of a roller coaster start to the Central Michigan season, as the Chippewas opened up with an upset win at San Jose State, only to be blown out in back-to-back games right after. They have since rebounded to post consecutive wins, including last week in conference versus Eastern Michigan. For this week, CMU finds itself in the uncomfortable role of road favorite, a spot in which they have lost four straight ATS and six of the last seven. The number sits at 8.5 currently, and my power rating and effective strength numbers say it should be 4.3 and 7.8, respectively. Those two only factor in 1.4 points of HFA as well, a very low number.
Now, am I advocating for Akron hard here? No, but it does look like a game that could wind up being a massive disappointment for 67% of handle bettors at DraftKings who are backing an inconsistent road favorite: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 263-297 ATS (47%). Recreational bettors often prefer road favorites because they are typically the stronger team. The point spread is the great equalizer. Most of what I have shows that Akron should score about 20 here. That should be good enough to get it done.
College Football Week 6 Best Bet: I’ll take Akron +8.5 vs. CMU
Eastern Michigan at Buffalo
If you pick up anything out of this EMU-Buffalo opinion and the one just above in the CMU-Akron game, it should be that I really don’t like laying points with the average teams in the MAC in conference play. Right now, I’m not sure how anyone could be comfortable laying points with Buffalo. The Bulls are 2-3 with a comfortable win over St Francis, one of the worst FCS teams, and a 3-point win over Kent State, the worst FBS team. In those games, they had a healthy QB Ta’Quan Roberson as well. He is listed as questionable for this one after missing last week.
In all, for their five games, I am showing UB with an effective Strength Rating of 28.8 and an Effective Play-by-Play Rating of 29.4. Both of those are at least two points worse than their power rating on my scale, meaning they might not be as good as they are perceived to be. For Saturday, they take on an EMU team that has once again shown an ability to score, averaging an effective 25.7 PPG in its first five. To me, you need underdogs that are capable of matching scores. Historically, the Eagles have been a very reliable road team, showing trends of 40-20 (66.7%) ATS in Road/Neutral games since 2016, and 18-7 ATS as a MAC road underdog in the last 25.
College Football Week 6 Best Bet: Give me Eastern Michigan +10 at Buffalo
James Madison at Georgia State
Georgia State has admirably taken on one of the tougher schedules in the country so far. Unfortunately, it hasn’t paid off, as the Panthers are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in 2025, while yielding 48 PPG. Their most recent loss was a 70-21 shellacking at the hands of Vanderbilt. That sets up GSU in a precarious situation as it faces another tough foe in James Madison: Teams playing at home in conference games and coming off a blowout loss by more than 45 points are just 47-74 ATS (38.8%) since 2010.
This trend doesn’t even take into account the fact that JMU is 27-13 (67.5%) ATS as a favorite since 2020, as the Dukes have become known as a team that takes care of business. So far in 2025, James Madison is 4-0 ATS, and while I wouldn’t typically find myself on the side of the 4-0 ATS team in such a matchup, as it is usually a very public side, in this case, only 63% of the bets at DraftKings are on JMU, not terribly lopsided. My current Effective Strength Ratings show JMU is 32.6 points better than GSU right now. I’ll trust them.
College Football Week 6 Best Bet: Give me James Madison -19.5 as the big road chalk
Michigan State at Nebraska
Michigan State may not have won the game at USC a couple of weeks ago, but you had to be impressed with how the Spartans kept grinding in what was a tough atmosphere out in Los Angeles on a late Saturday kickoff. They scored 31 points in that game, their third straight contest with 30 or more. In fact, at this point, they are averaging 34.3 PPG, which would be a program best since 2014 should it continue.
To me, it’s obvious that head coach Jonathan Smith’s system is finally having an impact on what was a dormant offense. The ability to score points makes Sparty a dangerous underdog at Nebraska on Saturday. Coming off a bye week, MSU will be backed by this successful system: Teams playing as conference road dogs of more than 7 points after not having played since 14 days ago are on a 141-108 ATS (56.6%) surge since 2010.
We have another spot here in which the public at DK seems to agree with 63% of bets in on MSU as of Wednesday: When a majority of 55% or more of the number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past three seasons, this majority group has gone 129-106 ATS (54.9%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #4, and it suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy. Throw in trends that Nebraska is 7-15-2 (29.2%) ATS at home in their last 24, and 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a Big Ten favorite, and I think we have the makings for a tighter contest than the oddsmakers are forecasting.
College Football Week 6 Best Bet: I’ll take Michigan State +11.5 in Lincoln
Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois
Miami (OH) challenged itself in the early going and paid the price, losing its first three games to a pair of Big Ten teams and UNLV. The Redhawks now begin conference play, however, and with their MAC goals still in front of them, head coach Chuck Martin’s team needs to get off to a solid conference start. Recall that this has been a MAC power for much of the last decade. Their first test is in DeKalb against a NIU team that has scored just 10.3 PPG in its 1-3 SU and ATS start.
Despite the equal records right now, my Effective Play-by-Play Ratings show that Miami (OH) has played at a level so much higher than NIU that they should be 24.3-point road favorites here. That is quite a variance, and although sometimes I like to caution against egregious numbers like this, in this case, it is backed up by the fact that Miami (OH) is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 vs. Northern Illinois, and Northern Illinois is 5-22-2 (18.5%) ATS in last 29 Home games. Let’s go with it.
College Football Week 6 Best Bet: I’ll lay the 5.5 points on the road with Miami (OH)
Penn State at UCLA
Former UCLA HC DeShaun Foster was deservedly fired after his team opened up the 2025 season in brutal fashion, continuing a trend from last year as the program tried to transition successfully to the Big Ten. It seems there have been a number of situations like this in recent weeks, and the teams whose coaches were fired tend to respond pretty well. Just this past week, the Bruins shook off a slow start to nearly upset Northwestern on the road and get their first ATS win. In my humble opinion, the resume that UCLA has right now is not nearly as bad as it might seem. At 0-4, they have lost to four teams that I believe have turned out to be better than expected, and the lines posted at the time put significant pressure on the Bruins.
For this one at home for Saturday, there literally is no pressure versus Penn State, as UCLA is a +24.5-point home underdog, the biggest line the program has faced in LA since being a 32-point dog to USC in 2008. They lost that game 28-7, but easily covered. The opponent is a Nittany Lions team that has to be suffering some bit of hangover from the emotional home loss to Oregon last week. As it is, Penn State is 10-20 (33.3%) ATS coming off a SU loss since 2015. That hasn’t stopped 79% of the money and 84% of bets at DK from coming in on PSU, a very public play. When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 263-297 ATS (47%). Recreational bettors love road favorites because they are most often the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer. If all that weren’t enough, by Effective Play-by-Play Ratings say UCLA should only be a +13.8-point dog here.
College Football Week 6 Best Bet: Give me UCLA +24.5 at home to Penn State
Miami (FL) at Florida State
There are only a pair of ranked vs. ranked games this week, but we know what that means from my picks the last couple of seasons. I’m going to be taking a serious look at the hosts in each. That doesn’t mean I’m backing both, but I give them the right of first refusal if you will. After all, in games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 204-100 SU and 178-118-8 ATS (60.1%). In this particular case, we got a home dog that was everyone’s upstart team till last week, as Florida State lost at Virginia, and apparently, a lot of folks dropped off the bandwagon in the process.
As of Wednesday, 54% of dollars and 67% of the bets were on Miami (FL) for this one. When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 263-297 ATS (47%). FSU is still scoring 53 PPG, which equates to 49.7 PPG on my effective scale. Even in their loss last week, the Seminoles proved they could score quickly and often, putting up 38 points. That makes them a very dangerous home dog and explains why my Effective Play-by-Play Ratings show they should be favored by 7.8 points against the Hurricanes. Now, that’s not realistic, but it still shows FSU can win this one.
College Football Week 6 Best Bet: I’ll take Florida State +4.5 as a very live home underdog
Colorado at TCU
How deflating can tough losses be for a team, especially one set up in a difficult line scenario the next week? We are about to find out with TCU, who deserved to win at Arizona State last Friday night but was ultimately doomed by a couple of late key plays that resulted in turnovers. Now, the Horned Frogs are expected to go out and handle a talent-laden Colorado team that continues to be disrespected because of who its coach is.
The truth is that head coach Deion Sanders has recruited well for this program, the talent is in place, and his program is 10-5 ATS as an underdog in his tenure. They have also shown a penchant for bouncing back well after setbacks, a sign of a well-coached team: Colorado is 10-1 ATS (90.9%) following up a SU loss in the last two seasons. The number here is -13.5, my power ratings say it should be a bit lower, and those don’t really take into account the hangover effect for TCU. I expect both teams to score here, and I expect the Buffaloes to compete.
College Football Week 6 Best Bet: I’ll go with Colorado +13.5 at TCU
Kansas State at Baylor
This Big 12 battle between Kansas State and Baylor could easily be renamed the Disappointment Bowl, as after five games each, neither team has lived up to expectations despite bringing back a number of talented players from last year’s successful teams. In such a case, are you ever really comfortable backing a favorite? My current Effective Strength Ratings show KSU at 15.8, Baylor at 19.4, and none of my other metrics, including power ratings, can stretch this game to a point where I feel the Bears are justified at -6.5.
This doesn’t even take into account that underdogs are 11-3 ATS in the last 14 head-to-head matchups between KSU-BU, including 7-1 ATS in the last eight in Waco. With the Wildcats coming off their best game of the year, a 34-20 win over UCF in which they gained 434 yards of offense, I believe they may have finally found something for 2025.
College Football Week 6 Best Bet: Give me Kansas State +6.5 in Waco
Army at UAB
Which Army team are we going to get on Saturday at UAB? The one that upset Kansas State on the road as a 17.5-point underdog? Or the one that allowed 34.3 PPG in three other losses? Well, according to the action at DraftKings, those public bettors are expecting a bad Army, as 77% of the money and 64% of the bets as of Wednesday were on UAB.
I love fading the public action when it gets behind terrible teams, and make no mistake about it, UAB is still a terrible team. The Blazers are 2-2 with tight wins over Akron and Alabama State. Those don’t do much for strength ratings, and in fact, my Effective Strength Ratings for this game show a 9.9-point better team to this point. My power rating says this line should be Army -10.2. Add to that the fact that American Athletic favorites in the -7 to -12 line range have gone 108-15 SU and 72-46-5 (61%) ATS since 2015
College Football Week 6 Best Bet: Let’s back Army laying -7 on the road
Texas State at Arkansas State
Bettors should make it a habit to find uncustomary bad teams and fade them regularly in any given season. In my opinion, one of those teams for 2025 is Arkansas State, who currently sits at 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS with its lone win against SE Missouri State. Just how bad have things gotten for head coach Butch Jones’ club? Well, after an 8-5 season a year ago, the Red Wolves were expected to be down a bit, but just last week, they gave up a 15-game winning streak versus ULM.
How should we expect them to bounce back this week against an explosive team like Texas State? I don’t expect things to go well, and I don’t think the line (TSU -13.5) does justice to the current state of these teams. The Bobcats have continuously shown their ability to score under head coach GJ Kinne, and their lone loss this season at Arizona State was far more competitive than the score indicates. My Effective Play-by-Play Ratings show that Texas State could be favored by 24 points if we used that metric to set lines. I don’t think it’s that unreasonable.
College Football Week 6 Best Bet: Texas State is worthy of the -13.5 at Arkansas State
Nevada at Fresno State
One of the foremost systems on this week’s VSiN College Football Analytics Report finds that teams playing as conference road dogs of more than 7 points after not having played in 14 days are on a 141-108 ATS (56.6%) surge since 2010. In other words, big conference road dogs coming off a bye week can prove to be pretty dangerous. I’ve called on a few others qualifying for the angle already in this column, and I will wrap it up by backing Nevada at Fresno State.
That isn’t the only reason though. I also like that there is a 74% handle/48% bets split on the Wolfpack, a sign that perhaps sharper money is in on that side. When a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 132-113 ATS (53.9%). Plus, road teams are 11-2-1 ATS in the last 14 of the FSU-NEV rivalry.
College Football Week 6 Best Bet: I’ll take the +14 points with Nevada at Fresno State
For more college football Week 6 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 6 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
