College Football Week 7 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
Since a slow start to the 2025 college football season on best bets, I’ve put together a three-week winning streak. Last week’s picks were my best yet, as I won 11 of 17 games. Over the last three weeks, I am 32-19 ATS, which has gotten me back over .500 at 56-52 ATS (51.9%) for the season. If you weren’t with me earlier in the season, my usually extremely reliable stability system suffered its first losing season in 13 years, and that, as much as anything, led to my negative start. My recently added Effective Play-by-Play ratings and usual reliance on the VSiN College Football Analytics Reports have helped me get out of that hole. With things seemingly heading in the right direction, I dove deep into the Week 7 slate to come up with these preferred plays.
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 9, 2025
Louisiana Tech at Kennesaw State
With its only setback to this point against a very good LSU team, and boasting a 5-0 ATS mark, Louisiana Tech could be the class of Conference USA. In terms of league implications, the Bulldogs’ game at Kennesaw State on Thursday carries some serious weight, as the Owls are off to a decent 2025 start themselves. As I look at the teams from a ratings perspective, however, I see two different-level programs. My Effective Strength numbers show LT at +19.9, KSU at -0.2. That is over a 20-point difference, and the point spread for the contest doesn’t reflect that at all. Before their bye week, the Bulldogs had what could be considered an “off week” offensively against UTEP, putting up only 232 yards in a 30-11 win. That leads to a nice betting angle for this game: Over the last twelve years, college football teams that won a conference game despite gaining less than 250 yards of offense have used that victory to build momentum, going 80-53 ATS (60.2%) in the follow-up contest. There is a big disparity toward Louisiana Tech in this one in terms of handle and bets in at DraftKings. However, we have learned that when the majority of the number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022-24 seasons record was 213-163 (56.6%)! I think the public is right on this one.
College Football Week 7 Best Bet: Give me Louisiana Tech -5.5 on Thursday night
Southern Miss at Georgia Southern
The Thursday night slate in college football is much better this week than it has been so far this season, and from this week’s CFB Analytics Report, you’ll find a number of interesting trends and system tidbits to consider for the games. A couple of them are for this Sun Belt clash between Southern Miss and Georgia Southern. The one that really catches my eye is an intriguing angle regarding the total: Sun Belt non-Saturday games have gone Under the total at a 50-24-1 (67.6%) rate since 2015 (including 21-4 (84%) when total is >= 59). This total is at 59.5 as I write about it. Typically, I won’t just bet a game on a single trend or system, as I like to have some accompanying support for it. I do have some other thoughts on that. First, recall that Southern Miss is essentially Marshall south this year, with head coach Charles Huff and a number of his former Herd players joining him in moving this past offseason. That Marshall team of last year played a 24-23 game with GSU last year. Second, I feel like that Eagles’ team was better offensively than this one, and this year’s version plays a little slower pace.
College Football Week 7 Best Bet: Let’s go with an Under 59.5 here in USM-GSU
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 10, 2025
Fresno State at Colorado State
Since its opening Week 0 loss at Kansas, Fresno State has looked a lot better than we thought at that time. The Bulldogs have won five straight games, including two in Mountain West play. It should be noted that Fresno State is 23-13 (63.9%) ATS coming off a SU Win since 2021. On this Friday night, they will travel to Fort Collins to take on Colorado State. The Rams face the same daunting money line system they did a week ago at San Diego State, when they lost handily, 45-24. The system says that favorites of >= 4 points on Mountain West Friday Nights have gone 55-3 SU (~+40.20 units) since 2016. You read that right: 55-3.
Now, the great thing here is that we are looking at another opportunity where the point spread for the game is less than a TD. No worries either that most of the DK action is on the Bulldogs, since when the majority of the number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022-24 seasons record was 213-163 (56.6%)! This goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from. CSU has really struggled offensively in the early going, scoring 17 PPG. My effective points models for their offense and FSU’s defense have the Rams scoring just 15.3 and 15.9 points, or essentially less than 16. That would make things much easier on the line for the Bulldogs if that happens.
College Football Week 7 Best Bet: I’ll back Fresno State -6.5 on the road on Friday night
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 11, 2025
Navy at Temple
Navy remains among the unbeaten teams across the country despite two somewhat sloppy wins in back-to-back weeks since coming back from their bye week. Of course, the Air Force game did have a lot of rivalry motivation involved, so failing to cover a pretty big number (-13.5) is understandable. That said, the result does lead the Midshipmen into a nice trend play for this game versus Temple, since Navy is on a 31-8 ATS run in conference games when coming off a home win. They are also 16-8 ATS in their last 24 coming off of any kind of win. There is also a pretty nice American Conference system in play, stating that AAC favorites in the -7 to -12 line range have gone 108-15 SU and 72-46-5 (61%) ATS since 2015. Don’t you find it curious that Temple, sitting at 3-2 and off a big upset of UTSA, finds itself as a near double-digit favorite in this one? I sure do.
College Football Week 7 Best Bet: Give me Navy -9.5 at Temple
UAB at Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic has been a bit of a disappointment early in the 2025 college football season and, for me, I thought the offense would be clicking a lot more behind QB Caden Veltkamp than it has. Not taking anything away from the win last week at Rice, but this team has only hit the 30-point mark once in five games, and that was against Florida A&M. As it is, Florida Atlantic is 5-17 (23.8%) ATS in the last 22 games following a SU win. Naturally, the Owls have a good chance to put some things together offensively this week against UAB, but can they stop the Blazers enough to separate and cover? That is where I have my doubts. FAU’s effective defensive numbers show that they hold teams 7.8 points above their offensive averages. In which case, UAB should top the 35-point mark here. To me, that makes head coach Trent Dilfer’s team a live dog. Apparently, bettors at DK don’t see it like me, with 80% of the bets in as of Wednesday on FAU. I like that a lot because when 76%+ of the number of bets were on the home side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone just 192-220 ATS (46.6%). In 2022, it was 46.5%. In 2023, it was 46.7%. In 2024, it was 46.6%. This is incredible consistency. On top of that, my Effective Play-by-play Ratings disparity games show this one at #9, indicating UAB should be favored by 4 points when considering play-by-play strength.
College Football Week 7 Best Bet: I’ll take UAB +5.5 as a potential high-scoring underdog
Old Dominion at Marshall
If you caught my first Effective Play-by-Play Ratings article from a few weeks ago, you would know that I have been raving about the numbers that Old Dominion has put up in the early going. The Monarchs look like a team that should have a Sun Belt title game appearance and CFP goals on their radar. In examining the games that align with my Effective Play-by-Play Ratings variances from the actual lines this week, the ODU game versus Marshall on Saturday ranks #1, with a significant edge, indicating that ODU could be favored by 37.3 points if the lines were based on the play-by-play metric. The Monarchs will also have a little motivation from the revenge aspect, as they were edged by the Herd last year despite piling up 517 yards of offense. Take a look at the revenge system I have my eye on: Double-digit road favorites have been solid producers in the revenge role, going 52-41 ATS (55.9%) since 2016. I had Marshall as perhaps the most unstable team in the country heading into 2025. Fading them as an underdog to a team playing far better than perception doesn’t seem like a bad idea.
College Football Week 7 Best Bet: I’ll be laying the 14.5 points with Old Dominion
Northwestern at Penn State
Well, the masses have certainly turned on Penn State and head coach James Franklin the last two weeks as they come off back-to-back losses, including one this past Saturday as 24.5-point favorites at UCLA. I wouldn’t blame you if you considered fading the Nittany Lions again this week, especially since they are laying 21.5 points to a feisty Northwestern team. If you are going to, this particular system is for you: Teams that lose in a college football game as favorites of 19.5 points or more have gone just 42-68 SU and 39-67-4 ATS (36.8%) in the follow-up contest since 2012. However, knowing that angle, and seeing how good defensively both PSU & Northwestern are, I find myself looking closer at the total. After all, BIG 10 home favorites in the -17 to -30.5 line range with a total of <= 56 have gone Under the total at a 37-15 (71.2%) rate since 2017. Both teams hold their opponents about 14 points below their season offensive averages, which, when applying the math, suggests we’d be looking at about a 30-12 score. That doesn’t seem too far off from what I’m thinking, and 83% of bets in on DK on the Over adds to my warm fuzzy feeling.
College Football Week 7 Best Bet: Give me UNDER 47.5 in Northwestern-Penn State
Iowa at Wisconsin
Wisconsin has played a pretty tough schedule to date, but it doesn’t get much easier the rest of the way. The Badgers’ offense is struggling too, and after what looked to be a very encouraging first 75-yard TD drive behind backup QB Hunter Simmons last week at Michigan, they gained just 177 the rest of the day. Unfortunately, according to my numbers, Iowa is nearly as good as Michigan is defensively. And we aren’t talking about a 17+ point spread, we’re looking at 3.5. Look at the damage the Hawkeyes did to head coach Luke Fickell’s Wisconsin team last year, too, a 42-10 decision in Iowa City. As it is, Big 10 Road Favorites of -4 or less have gone 25-9 SU and 23-11 ATS (67.6%) since 2021. And Iowa is on a 22-8-1 ATS run as road chalk. It’s hard to see Wisconsin getting much more and a couple of TD scores in this one, in which case, laying the short number with a quality road favorite makes sense.
College Football Week 7 Best Bet: Give me Iowa -3.5 in Madison
UCLA at Michigan State
Transfer QB Nico Iamaleava has certainly taken his share of flak for what, in hindsight, looks like a terrible move in transferring out of Tennessee to UCLA. That said, he hasn’t played all that badly overall, and he comes off his most efficient outing for the Bruins, that of course being the 42-37 upset of Penn State last week. Could that game prove to be a renaissance moment for UCLA? It certainly could, considering it was tied for the most points the team scored in any game since Week 3 of 2023. It also didn’t come in a contest versus an FCS or Mountain West team. It came against what was believed to be one of the best defensive teams in the country prior to. Now, as they try to continue the surge upward, they travel to East Lansing to take on a Michigan State team that has built a 0-7 ATS record under head coach Jonathan Smith as a home favorite. The Spartans are also a far lesser defensive team, giving up over 30 PPG. Bettors at DraftKings are unexpectedly backing the Bruins, with 55% of bets in on that side of the ledger. A reminder, when a majority of 55% or more of the number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past three seasons, this majority group has gone 129-106 ATS (54.9%).
College Football Week 7 Best Bet: Let’s back UCLA +8.5 to ride the momentum of last week’s huge win
Miami (OH) at Akron
Last week, I remarked that Miami (OH) still had its MAC goals in front of it after what was a tough slate to start the season. The Redhawks responded with an easy win at Northern Illinois, bumping the record to 2-3. They will now face an Akron team that has also won two games and is coming off an upset win at home over Central Michigan. Can the Zips make it two upsets in a row in front of the home folks? I’m betting against it. After all, road teams are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 of the Miami (OH)-Akron series, and Akron is 17-30-1 (36.2%) ATS at home since 2016. Plus, on my top 15 game list for Effective Play-by-Play strength variance against actual lines, you will find this game at #4, indicating Miami (OH) could be favored by 27.6 points. I don’t think it will be that big of a rout, but 31-14 doesn’t sound unreasonable.
College Football Week 7 Best Bet: I’ll lay the 11.5 points on the road with Miami (OH)
Toledo at Bowling Green
Bowling Green stunned Toledo last year on the road, pulling a 42-26 road upset on what was the MAC favorite at the time. Will that game be a prime motivator for the Rockets this year, as they look to turn the tables this time around in Bowling Green? According to this revenge betting system, it sure could be…Double-digit road favorites have been solid producers in the revenge role, going 52-41 ATS (55.9%) since 2016. That win last year was an unusual one for the Falcons, as they are 19-31 ATS as underdogs dating back to 2019. According to my strength ratings this year, Toledo is the clearly better team at this point, as my Effective Strength numbers show them with a rating of 23.8, and BGSU at -4.9, an almost 20-point difference. In terms of the Effective Play-by-play numbers, the disparity is even greater, as the Rockets should be 23.6-point favorites according to that metric. Better and motivated, a good combination.
College Football Week 7 Best Bet: Toledo is my choice -10.5 at Bowling Green
Ball State at Western Michigan
Lost in all of the gushing over UCLA’s and several other teams’ surprise wins last week was an unexpected upset win for Ball State at Ohio U. The Bobcats were previously being projected as a potential MAC title team before the outing and had been very competitive against some top-shelf Power Four foes. Instead, it was the Cardinals who rode a steady effort on both sides of the ball to a 28-21 win as 14-point dogs. Can they make it two straight as they travel to Western Michigan? This trend sure makes it seem possible: Ball State has won its last 11 games ATS in MAC play when coming off an upset win. BSU seems to be getting more than its fair share of attention from bettors, too, with 72% of the handle on their side of the ledger. No worries, since when a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 132-113 ATS (53.9%). Oh, and Ball State has a history of playing well against WMU, going 6-1 ATS in the last seven games, scoring 30+ points in all seven games.
College Football Week 7 Best Bet: Give me Ball State +8.5 at Western Michigan
Washington State at Ole Miss
There are certain coaches I trust more than others when it comes to laying points in college football. Lane Kiffin of Ole Miss is one of them, and earlier this year, backers of his team even got an apology from him when his team gave up a late backdoor score to lose on a point spread. Will Kiffin and his team make it up to us this week as 32.5-point favorites over Washington State? Or is this a dangerous letdown spot, two weeks after beating LSU, or a lookahead spot in anticipation of a trip to Georgia next week? Well, I would definitely say no to the letdown angle since the Rebels enjoyed a bye last week. I also wouldn’t be worried about the lookahead in that they beat the Bulldogs last year. In which case, I will look at just the merits of these two teams in this particular game. Specifically, my current effective strength ratings indicate that Ole Miss should be favored by 40.3 points here, a near 8-point cushion. We know Kiffin likes running up scores occasionally, and his team is 18-5 ATS (78.3%) in non-conference games in his five seasons in Oxford. Perhaps you’re worried that 71% of the handle at DK is backing the hosts here. Well, don’t, since contrary to popular belief, majority handle bettors have been very good when getting behind huge home favorites, specifically those favored by 27.5 points or more. Typically, I would fear this as a prototypical public bet, but these groups are 60-40 ATS (60%) over the last three seasons.
College Football Week 7 Best Bet: I see enough to lay the big number (-32.5) with Ole Miss here
Troy at Texas State
After back-to-back double-digit win seasons in 2022 and 2023, Troy took a few steps backward under first-time head coach Gerad Parker in the early part of 2024. The Trojans seem to be finding their footing once again, going 6-3 in their last nine games overall with four upset wins in the process. They have a chance for another big one on Saturday when they travel to Texas State. The Bobcats are scoring a lot of points again in their 3-2 start but have lost their last three ATS and have given up over 30 points versus each of their last three FBS opponents. That makes them a vulnerable favorite without anything else considered. There are some very nice situational trends lined up for Troy as well, as they are 21-6 ATS in road/neutral games overall since 2021, have won 10 of their last 12 Sun Belt road games ATS, and are on a 16-4 ATS run in Sun Belt play when coming off a win.
College Football Week 7 Best Bet: Give me Troy +9.5 to give Texas State a competitive game
Arkansas at Tennessee
Things are going to be very tough the rest of the way for Arkansas, as the Razorbacks figure to be an underdog in all but one of their last seven games, all SEC tilts. They have lost three straight games, including two weeks ago in ugly fashion to Notre Dame, 56-13. Does that type of defeat remove them from consideration as being a live underdog again here? In some cases, I would say yes, but this is a team with a very talented quarterback (Taylen Green) who can score points and one that is coming off a bye week, allowing it time to regroup for the brutal stretch run. Take a look at this strong angle backing head coach Sam Pittman’s team at Tennessee: Teams playing as conference road dogs of more than 7 points after not having played since 14 days ago are on a 144-110 ATS (56.7%) surge since 2010. This is also a revenge spot for Tennessee, having lost to Arkansas last year, 19-14. There is an angle for that too: Teams looking to avenge outright losses where they were double-digit favorites have struggled, going just 112-124 ATS (47.5%) since 2016. If you’re worried about the metrics, thinking Tennessee is simply better, don’t, as this game comes in at #11 on my top 15 Effective Play-by-Play Ratings variance games, with the formula showing Tennessee should only be favored by 3.5.
College Football Week 7 Best Bet: Give me Green & the Razorbacks (+12.5) in Knoxville
Florida at Texas A&M
One of the best systems I have found in analyzing the DK Betting Splits data is listed as #10 on the weekly Analytics Reports. It involves totals and reads as follows. Since the start of the 2022 season, in games with totals of 46.5 or lower, 72%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 157-127 (55.3%). This system improved its win percentage in 2024 (57.8%). This does not produce a ton of plays here in the grand scheme, but the more public option of the number of bets has been pretty good when going against the grain. As of Wednesday, 81% of bets are backing the over in the Texas A&M-Florida contest. Why might that be? Well, to me, the obvious answer is that we have two very talented and athletic quarterbacks about to square off in Marcel Reed and DJ Lagway. Reed has been phenomenal this season, leading his team to a 5-0 start and 34.8 PPG. Lagway had struggled for the first part of the season but may have enjoyed a coming out party this past week in the upset of Texas, throwing for 299 yards in the win. Both of these offenses are capable of having big days with these quarterbacks firing on all cylinders. It doesn’t feel like a defensive battle like it might have a few weeks ago. All my formulas call for at least 50 points combined here.
College Football Week 7 Best Bet: I’ll take Over 46.5 in Florida-Texas A&M
Stanford at SMU
I have used this bye system from the VSiN College Football Analytics Reports already on a few occasions this week and several other times in recent weeks because it has helped me win a lot recently. Teams playing as conference road dogs of more than 7 points after not having played since 14 days ago are on a 144-110 ATS (56.7%) surge since 2010. Stanford comes in off a bye week, which followed a 30-29 win at home versus San Jose State. The Cardinal, under new head coach Frank Reich, seems to be finding some offense recently, having scored 26.7 PPG in their last three outings. I’m confident the bye week will help as well. They seem to be getting some love from bettors at DraftKings, as the latest numbers show a 63% handle, 37% bets split on that side of the ledger. Typically, I like that split and feel it could be more “sharp” money, causing the disparity. Either way, when a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 132-113 ATS (53.9%). If that weren’t enough, my Effective Play-by-Play Ratings show this game to be a touch overpriced, indicating that SMU should be closer to a 12-point favorite, not -19.5
College Football Week 7 Best Bet: I’ll take Stanford +19.5 to keep this closer than expected
NC State at Notre Dame
Is there anyone playing better than Notre Dame right now? I’m not sure. Well, actually, I am, as there is only one team with a higher recent rating on my strength ratings than the Irish, that being Indiana. The odds for this week are reflecting just how good head coach Marcus Freeman’s team has been, too, as they are healthy 22.5-point favorites over NC State. Should we be concerned about laying this many points to a Power Four team after ND failed to cover a -21.5 line last week over a G5 team? Well, consider that NC State is 4-13 ATS (23.5%) in non-conference games in the last three seasons, and that the Irish are on a 7-0 SU and ATS streak hosting ACC teams as favorites of -17.5 or more. That should alleviate worry. If it doesn’t, the fact that the Irish are scoring an effective 51 PPG and my models call for them to get 43 here might.
College Football Week 7 Best Bet: I’ll back Notre Dame laying 22.5 to NC State
Utah State at Hawaii
While I certainly loved this game more when Hawaii was a -1.5 point favorite to Utah State, since Hawaii is just 3-18 ATS in its last 21 conference games when favored by single digits, I still suspect the Aggies are better than the Warriors to a point where it shouldn’t matter to me. In fact, if you look at my Effective Play-by-Play Ratings line for this game, it says Utah State should be favored by 18 points! This team has played extremely well this season for new head coach Bronco Mendenhall, going 5-0 ATS while scoring 36.4 PPG. If they even have an average offensive game, I’m not sure Hawaii can keep up. And one other thing, Utah State is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in the series versus Hawaii since 2011
College Football Week 7 Best Bet: Give me Utah State to cover at Hawaii, favorite or underdog
Purdue at Minnesota
How does a team coming off a humbling 42-3 loss to the nation’s #1 team tend to fare in the follow-up game versus a much lesser team? I don’t have the stats in front of me, but I have to believe it is a horrible letdown situation. Minnesota could be tested this week by a Purdue team that seems to be much improved under new head coach Barry Odom. The Boilermakers have lost three games in a row, but they were all top-ranked teams, and even in the process, they scored 24.7 PPG. They couldn’t have dreamed of such totals, or line respect for that matter, in the two years under Ryan Walters. Well, speaking of respect, Purdue is getting some from bettors at DraftKings, with 64% of the handle as of Wednesday on that side of the ledger. In which case, when a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group has gone 132-113 ATS (53.9%). From a head-to-head standpoint, consider that underdogs are 7-4 SU and 9-2 ATS in the last 11 of the PUR-MINN rivalry. On my Power Ratings page on VSiN.com, under the Effective Strength column, you will find Minnesota at #74 (+14.3) but Purdue at #72 (+15.5). The actual line for this game tells an entirely different story.
College Football Week 7 Best Bet: Give me Purdue and the +8.5 points at Minnesota
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