College Football Week 8 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
I saw a lot of solid information on last week’s VSiN College Football Analytics Report, and it led me to pick a few more games than usual. Unfortunately, I should have used a little more discernment as I went 9-11 on my Best Bets. It wasn’t all bad news, as after losing my first six results, the rest went 9-5. I also posted my best NFL week for the season, so I’m pleased about that. That said, my three-week CFB winning streak, which essentially erased what was a very slow start, has passed. I have settled in now with a 65-63 ATS (50.8%) mark for the season. Hopefully, you’ve been embracing my new Effective Play-by-Play ratings since those weekly top 15 plays are now on a four-week winning streak and are 35-24 ATS for the season. Some of those games for this week are on my list below. After digging into all of this week’s data, I have come up with these preferred plays for Week 8.
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 16, 2025
Tulsa at East Carolina
Despite the fact that Tulsa has not averaged over 30.6 PPG in any season since 2016, it has continued to thrive offensively when matched up against East Carolina. In fact, in the four matchups since 2019, the Golden Hurricane have scored no less than 29 and averaged 35.8 PPG versus the Pirates. As such, they are 3-1 ATS in the four matchups, and going back even further, they are 6-1 ATS in the last seven head-to-head meetings. Now, with ECU having lost two of its last three games while scoring just 20 PPG, the oddsmakers are expecting us to buy into the thought that the Pirates are in a good position to win and cover this game by beating Tulsa by at least 18 points. Most of the bettors at DraftKings and I are not buying it, with 74% of the handle leaning towards the live road dogs here. In which case, when a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdgos for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 132-113 ATS (53.9%). Add to this, Tulsa is 25-14-1 (64.1%) ATS in road/neutral games over the last five seasons, and we have the solid makings for a Thursday night road dog.
College Football Week 8 Best Bet: Give me Tulsa +17.5 at ECU
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 17, 2025
Nebraska at Minnesota
In most of the recent history of the Nebraska-Minnesota rivalry, most bettors would probably be anticipating a rock ’em sock ’em, grind-it-out defensive slugfest. That seems to be the way that oddsmakers are steering up for this year’s Friday night matchup in Minneapolis as well. However, this year’s Cornhuskers are a different offensive breed, scoring 41 PPG overall, which equates to an effective 47.2 PPG, a figure that, if reached, would surpass this fairly low 46.5 point total all by itself. However, I think you also have to consider that Nebraska is just 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 games as a Big Ten favorite.
So, if Nebraska doesn’t cover this spread, would you feel they underperformed offensively or defensively? In the past, I’d say offensively, but with sophomore QB Dylan Raiola having a tremendous season, and Minnesota allowing 29.3 PPG in its last four, I‘d say the defense is the concern. This game also fits into a nice DK betting splits system since 78% of bettors were looking at the Over here, and since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 46.5 or lower, 72%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 157-127 (55.3%). This system improved its win percentage in 2024 (57.8%). This does not produce a ton of plays here in the grand scheme, but the more public option of number of bets has been pretty good when going against the grain.
College Football Week 8 Best Bet: Let’s go Over 46.5 in the Nebraska-Minnesota Friday night tilt
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 18, 2025
West Virginia at UCF
There are a couple of nice tidbits on this week’s VSiN College Football Analytics Report indicating that we should see a competitive game between West Virginia and UCF on Saturday. One of the systems I have been buying into a lot lately, and have been successful with, is the one indicating to back big conference road dogs after a bye week. That is in play here. This system reads as follows. Teams playing as conference road dogs of more than 7 points after not having played for 14 days are on a 146-113 ATS (56.4%) surge since 2010. The Mountaineers have lost three straight games coming into this one, but against three pretty stout teams. They do own a win over a very good Pitt team earlier. UCF has also lost three in a row and comes into this one having lost 12 of its last 13 games ATS as a favorite in conference play. The Knights’ most impressive effort this season was a 34-9 defeat of UNC, a win that loses more and more luster each passing week. I’m not sure this team deserves to be more than a TD home favorite over any Big 12 team besides maybe OSU.
College Football Week 8 Best Bet: I’ll take West Virginia as a live road dog at UCF
Georgia State at Georgia Southern
If there is one game this week on the Analytics Report with almost all the info pointing in one direction, it is this one: a rivalry tilt between Georgia State and Georgia Southern in the Sun Belt. Both teams are struggling in 2025, and as such, it doesn’t feel like a game you want to lay a lot of points in. However, as of Wednesday, 89% of the handle at DraftKings was on the hosts here. Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when more than 75% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 505-568 ATS (47.1%). This angle has produced consistently over the last few seasons and blindly fading these majority bettors during this span who have given you a small profit in three straight years.
Georgia Southern is also on a 0-8 ATS streak in conference games when coming off a close loss of 7 points or less, and currently has the sixth-worst defense in the country in terms of effective yards per play allowed. They also yield 37.55 PPG, meaning Georgia State qualifies for this solid revenge angle: Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been successful, going 226-176 ATS (56.2%) since 2016. Add to that the fact that Georgia State is 21-11-1 (65.6%) ATS in the last 33 road/neutral games and on a solid road Sun Belt run of 15-4 ATS, and I think we will be looking at a competitive contest.
College Football Week 8 Best Bet: I’ll take Georgia State +6.5 to give Georgia Southern a game
Texas State at Marshall
Marshall’s shocking 48-24 upset of Old Dominion as a 14.5-point underdog last week bought us some points this week that we may not have had otherwise in terms of backing Texas State. The Herd benefited from five ODU turnovers in the game. The result also puts Marshall in a difficult spot of reacting to the expected win. This system is thus in play: Both college football teams coming off a game which was decided by a margin of 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next contest, going just 147-187-1 ATS (44%) over the last decade-plus. Marshall still gave up 439 yards in the game and is currently allowing an effective 5.76 yards per play, which is the third-worst in the Sun Belt. That is something the Texas State offense should be able to take advantage of since the Bobcats are gaining a lofty 7.04 Effective YPP offensively, second to only ODU in the SBC. Speaking of the Effective Play-by-Play Ratings, this game appears on my top 15 list for the week in terms of projected line versus actual line, as it shows that TSU has performed at a level where it should be an 11.8-point road favorite here.
College Football Week 8 Best Bet: Give me Texas State to cover the -2.5 road chalk line at Marshall
Purdue at Northwestern
Coming off an emotional upset win at Penn State, where the Wildcats won as 20.5-point underdogs, their line for this week flips around significantly, now expecting them to win. That last scenario has been a rarity in itself for Northwestern in recent years of Big Ten play, as they have been favored at home just once since the start of the 2021 season. That game was a few weeks ago versus UCLA when they were a 6-point favorite but won just 17-14. The opponent this week is a Purdue team that seems much improved over the past few seasons, although the Boilermakers have lost four in a row against some very strong competition. Head coach Barry Odom’s team was right around the Vegas number for all four of those contests, going 1-2-1 ATS. They are now looking for that elusive third win that would put them over the season win total prop of 2.5. This game and next week’s tilt at home versus Rutgers would seem to be the best chance to get it, and considering that road teams are 9-4 SU and 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 of the PUR-NW series, perhaps this is it. Bettors at DK are getting behind Purdue, too, with 74% of the handle on that side as of Wednesday. When a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 132-113 ATS (53.9%).
College Football Week 8 Best Bet: I like Purdue’s chances of at least covering the +3 points in Evanston
LSU at Vanderbilt
If you’re anything like me, you’ve probably been waiting for the LSU offense to break out behind QB Garrett Nussmeier all season long. Aside from a 56-point outburst versus SE Louisiana, the Tigers have underperformed on that side of the ball, scoring just 19.8 PPG in the other five contests. This week’s lower total against high-flying Vanderbilt sort of reflects that underwhelming performance. However, if you analyze the numbers from an “effective” standpoint, how much is LSU actually struggling? They are scoring 37.7 PPG and gaining 6.88 effective yards per play. Both of those rank around 45th in the country. I just have a feeling this could be a big game for that unit. However, since my usual ranked games systems indicate Vanderbilt should be the side chosen, I’d like to look closer at the total for the game. There is a very strong SEC angle indicating that Over should be played here: Over the total is 18-6 (75%) in SEC non-neutral expected-tight matchups (within a field goal -3 to +3) with totals <= 51.5 since 2021. I do expect the game to be tight, and I do expect Vandy QB Diego Pavia to play well. That puts the onus on Nussmeier and the Tigers offense. I expect them to respond. All of my ratings say this total should be closer to 52.
College Football Week 8 Best Bet: I’ll take Over 48.5 in LSU-Vanderbilt
Mississippi State at Florida
In my opinion, this matchup in Gainesville for Saturday pits two teams on opposite ends of the mentality spectrum. Mississippi State has lost back-to-back games but is much improved over recent years and is playing like a team hungry to still reach certain goals. Florida is a team drowning in disappointment after it appeared they were turning the corner last year. At 2-4, the Gators are clearly underperforming. In games like this, I find it impossible to justify laying points. As such, like 87% of the handle and 72% of the bettors at DraftKings, I find myself looking to back the Bulldogs. Never mind the high public percentages since when a majority of 55% or more of number of bets have backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past three seasons, this majority group has gone 129-106 ATS (54.9%). This suggests that when public bettors back road dogs, it can be an actionable strategy. MSU also fits into that post-bye week angle on conference road dogs, where teams playing as conference road dogs of more than 7 points after not having played since 14 days ago are on a 146-113 ATS (56.4%) surge since 2010.
College Football Week 8 Best Bet: Mississippi State +9.5 should be very competitive at Florida
Texas San-Antonio at North Texas
UTSA scored 61 points in a massive outburst versus Rice last week, and oddsmakers are suggesting they are due to put up a lot of points versus North Texas this week. That would make the Roadrunners an attractive underdog in what should be a shootout. I don’t buy it, though, as North Texas has been far more consistent offensively so far in 2025. In fact, if you compare my effective points for stats, UTSA is at 38.3, and UNT is at 47.4, a top 10 national ranking. Furthermore, the Mean Green are averaging 20.6 PPG more than their previous opponents allow. That puts them on pace to almost certainly get 40+ here. Anytime I can back a team expected to get 40+ points in college football, I’ll take them. In terms of this head-to-head series, home teams are 10-2 SU and 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 of the UTSA-UNT in-state rivalry. Of course, the huge decision versus Rice actually stands to go against UTSA this week since both college football teams coming off a game which was decided by a margin 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next contest, going just 147-187-1 ATS (44%) over the last decade-plus.
College Football Week 8 Best Bet: I’ll lay the -4 points with North Texas
Missouri at Auburn
This Missouri-Auburn game feels like the LSU-Vandy contest, as both teams are very talented offensively and fully capable of beating a very low total. With the point spread of Mizzou -1.5, this game is expected to be very competitive with Auburn. As such, this SEC angle will be in play: Over the total is 18-6 (75%) in SEC non-neutral expected-tight matchups (within a field goal -3 to +3) with totals <= 51.5 since 2021. Most of the public bettors at DK seem to agree, with 82% of them flocking to the Over. In which case, we will be looking to extend this strong DK splits betting system: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 46.5 or lower, 72%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 157-127 (55.3%). This system improved its win percentage in 2024 (57.8%). This does not produce a ton of plays here in the grand scheme, but the more public option of number of bets has been pretty good when going against the grain. Auburn’s recent stretch of 10, 10, and 17 points came against some of the best defenses in the country. I expect a better showing from their offense on Saturday.
College Football Week 8 Best Bet: Give me Over 43.5 in Missouri-Auburn
Army at Tulane
We have a few different historically successful angles to consider for the Army-Tulane battle on Saturday. First, it is a revenge contest for the Green Wave, having lost 35-14 in the AAC title game to a much better Army team last year. Well, Tulane is 23-13 ATS (63.9%) in revenge mode since 2016. We also have the perfect line setup for what has been a very strong angle in American Athletic Conference play: AAC favorites in the -7 to -12 line range have gone 111-15 SU and 73-47-6 (60.8%) ATS since 2015. On top of that, Tulane is 51-25-1 (67.1%) ATS as a favorite since 2014. From a statistical standpoint, this is one of the games that made my top 14 Effective Play-by-Play Ratings variance against the actual line list, with Tulane projecting as a 17.5-point favorite. Oh, and by the way, Tulane is heading into another bye week, with a difficult two-game slate coming afterward. They need this one.
College Football Week 8 Best Bet: Give me Tulane -9.5 to handle Army
Ole Miss at Georgia
I see a lot of folks out there this week calling for revenge to be a huge part of what goes on at Athens this week between Ole Miss and Georgia, since the Rebels turned back the Bulldogs last year in Oxford, leading to what was a raucous celebration. Well, to exact revenge, you have to be capable of doing so. To be perfectly honest, I’m not sure Georgia is, and my effective play-by-play ratings illustrate that. In fact, using that metric, it projects that Georgia should actually be a 2-point underdog here. To me, head coach Kirby Smart’s team is simply leaning on reputation this season. They haven’t really overwhelmed anyone, and for this line to be sitting at over a touchdown, It gives head coach Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss a ton of motivation. Bettors at DraftKings seem to agree with me, with 60% of the handle backing the Rebels as of Wednesday. When a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 132-113 ATS (53.9%). This is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates, and goes to show that being on the side of majority handle when it goes against the grain can pay off. Georgia needs to prove it can play up to usual standards before I lay these type of points in a big game.
College Football Week 8 Best Bet: Give me Ole Miss +7.5 at Georgia
Penn State at Iowa
On the surface, what has happened with Penn State has certainly been a shock, as I don’t think anyone could have foreseen the Nittany Lions losing three games in a row at any point this season. They certainly couldn’t have believed head coach James Franklin would be out of work at midseason. Well, before the three-game losing skid, there were obvious cracks, as PSU failed to cover the point spread in any of its first three games either, leading to a current 0-6 ATS mark. Are we supposed to believe that they are going to finally “bring it” in a game at Iowa against a Hawkeyes’ team that continues to compete hard? Let’s put it this way. The line (Iowa -3) is right around where mine, and most other power ratings figure it would be with QB Drew Allar now out for Penn State. The mindset, motivation, and other immeasurable things are all on the side of Iowa. From a trend/system standpoint, Penn State is 10-22 (31.3%) ATS coming off a SU Loss since 2015. They also fit into a conference betting angle showing that road teams in conference games coming off very close losses of less than 3 points have struggled lately, 81-111 ATS (42.2%) since 2011. Furthermore, off the upset loss to Northwestern, teams that lose in a college football game as favorites of 19.5 points or more have gone just 42-69 SU and 39-68-4 ATS (36.4%) in the follow-up contest since 2012. Don’t force a play with a downtrodden team.
College Football Week 8 Best Bet: I got Iowa -3 to take care of business versus reeling Penn State
Utah at BYU
Is there any team that continues to go about its business under the radar than BYU? With a perfect 6-0 mark and riding a home stretch of 28-6 SU in their last 34 games, the Cougars now find themselves on the short end of the stick from oddsmakers against their most bitter rivals. Talk about a motivating circumstance. This has historically been a series in which underdogs step up, as they are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 renditions of the Holy War. High-quality underdogs enhance trends like this. From a stats standpoint, my effective play-by-play ratings also show that the wrong team is favored here, suggesting that BYU should be -6.2. Plus, in looking at recent ranked vs. ranked matchups, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 60-25 SU and 53-29-3 ATS (64.6%) since ’17. Utah will be extremely lucky to win, much less cover.
College Football Week 8 Best Bet: Give me BYU +3.5 at home to Utah
Oregon at Rutgers
Besides the fact that Oregon will be looking to unleash its frustrations on its next opponent and stay in the CFP picture this week, there are a couple of other reasons why I think the Ducks should roll on Saturday night in New Jersey. First, this is almost the perfect matchup for them after being held in check by Indiana last week. They gained just 267 yards in the 30-20 loss. The Hoosiers have a tremendous defense. Rutgers has a tremendously bad defense, allowing an effective 6.4 yards per play, fourth worst in FBS. Oregon’s offense should have a big outing, and my effective play-by-play ratings say they should be favored by 36.8 points using that metric. Besides the statistical reasons, Rutgers has also proven to be one of the worst conference home underdogs lately and is currently on a 2-11 ATS skid in Big Ten play.
College Football Week 8 Best Bet: I’ll lay the 17.5 points with Oregon in a bounce-back spot
USC at Notre Dame
There was a lot of debate early in the week about whether Notre Dame should be such a big favorite in what promises to be not only a huge contest between highly ranked teams but also a major rivalry renewal. I have trends suggesting that the Irish should not only be favored by this much but also backed as well. In terms of the head-to-head series, recent history shows that favorites are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 of the Notre Dame-USC rivalry. Of course, the fact that head coach Marcus Freeman’s team is at home is not lost on me either for this mega tilt since they fit into the three-part series I almost religiously follow for ranked games: First, in games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 205-104 SU and 179-121-9 ATS (59.7%). Second, digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 118-28 SU and 88-54-4 ATS (62%). And finally, third, adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 60-25 SU and 53-29-3 ATS (64.6%) since 2017. The line looks like a tough one to take, but I believe oddsmakers are laying the groundwork for who wins this one.
College Football Week 8 Best Bet: Give me Notre Dame -9.5 against rival USC
Tennessee at Alabama
One other huge game this week pits ranked teams against one another. The only thing I’ll say differently about the USC-Notre Dame game compared to Tennessee-Alabama is that I believe these are two different tiered teams, particularly this season so far. My Effective Strength numbers illustrate that belief. Currently, I show the Vols at 32.3 on that metric, while I have them at 40.5, a full 8.2 points better. Keep in mind, those ratings fully reflect what the teams have done against their schedules. That difference doesn’t even take into account home-field advantage, which, considering that Alabama is on a 28-9 ATS (75.7%) surge at Home, should be at least 3.5 points. The spot sets up nicely for Alabama in that Tennessee is 6-14 (30%) ATS as an Underdog since 2020. Of course, this game also finds head coach Kalen DeBoer’s team rolling and at home in a ranked versus ranked game, and qualifying for the same trends ND did: First, in games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 205-104 SU and 179-121-9 ATS (59.7%). Second, digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 118-28 SU and 88-54-4 ATS (62%). And finally, adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 60-25 SU and 53-29-3 ATS (64.6%) since 2017.
College Football Week 8 Best Bet: Let’s lay the 8.5 points with red-hot Alabama in a key SEC game
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