College Football Week 9 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
It was a volatile Week 8 for me in college football on my best bets, as at times on Saturday it seemed as if I was headed for a brutal day, only to wrap up the night with a nice finish. In the end, it was just an 8-9 ATS finish, a practical waste of time. That said, my season record now stands at 73-72 ATS (50.3%), an above .500 mark but not winning by any means. I feel like I am one solid week from a breakout. Hopefully, the 17 games below start that trend. Perhaps if my own deductions don’t hit big for me this week, I’ll just start turning to my new Effective Play-by-Play ratings since those weekly top 15 plays are now 42-31 ATS for the season. I have used some of those games listed below for this week. After digging into all of this week’s data, I have come up with these plays for Week 9.
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2025
South Alabama at Georgia State
For those of you that are new to my best bets column or possibly even the VSiN College Football Analytics Reports, you probably wouldn’t recognize this unique totals betting system on weeknight Sun Belt games that I have been recalling a lot over the last couple of seasons: Sun Belt non-Saturday games have gone Under the total at a 51-25-1 (67.1%) rate since 2015. This particular Sun Belt clash should fit in nicely with that angle, since neither team is very good offensively, while South Alabama has been pretty sound defensively.
Naturally, you’ll say that the missing ingredient is the Georgia State defense, which has allowed 38+ points in five of its seven games. However, even with that fact, the Panthers are effectively only allowing opponents 5.9 points above their season averages. In other words, the defensive numbers there aren’t good, but they have faced some pretty strong offenses to date. Plus, they actually held James Madison to just 14 points a few weeks ago. The total for this one is set at 55.5. The last five times these teams have faced one another, all five went Under while producing just 35.8 PPG. My stat formulas are showing nothing higher than 54 points combined as well. It’s tough to see this one turning into a shootout.
College Football Week 9 Best Bet: I’ll take Under 55.5 in the Thursday night Sun Belt clash
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2025
California at Virginia Tech
Quite honestly, I was a little surprised to see this Cal-Virginia Tech line sitting at anything over a field goal when I first looked at it. These two teams are on different ends of the confidence spectrum right now. It was just over a month ago that the Hokies fired their head coach. They responded with a pair of wins, their first two of the year, but then proceeded to drop two in a row, falling to 2-5.
At the same time, California started fast and has been up and down over the last month, but is coming off a huge late win over North Carolina, one that could easily be considered “lucky” in that the Tar Heels fumbled the ball late on the way into the end zone in what would have been a game-leading score. I don’t think that type of win deflates a team; I think it invigorates them, especially when facing a long road trip and an underdog line the next time out.
Let’s not forget, California is 29-16 (64.4%) ATS as an underdog since 2018. Bettors at DraftKings don’t seem to agree with my assessment of this one, as 79% were on the host Hokies as of Wednesday. As such, going back to the start of the 2022 season, when more than 75% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 505-568 ATS (47.1%). I’ll fade them in this case.
College Football Week 9 Best Bet: Give me Cal +4.5 in Blacksburg Friday night
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 25, 2025
Connecticut at Rice
Much like last year, when Connecticut stumbled a bit out of the gate but went on to a fine season after finding its footing, this year’s Huskies team seems to be finding a groove as well. They have won four straight games while going 2-1-1 ATS. Overall, head coach Jom Mora Jr.’s team is 5-2 and scoring an impressive 37.1 PPG.
According to my Effective Play-by-Play stats, they are also a team that could be better than their overall power ratings indicate. As such, this game qualifies as one of the top 15 variance games for the week when compared to the actual line. In fact, that metric indicates that UConn should be favored by 19.5 points here, not just 10.5.
Rice has lost three in a row under new head coach Scott Abell, and comes off a game in which it allowed 61 points on 437 yards to UTSA. His new option attack is gaining just 4.78 effective yards per play offensively. That is the third worst in the country. It is not working on either side of the ball right now for the Owls.
College Football Week 9 Best Bet: Connecticut -10.5 at Rice is my play here
Syracuse at Georgia Tech
There are certain games on the college football schedule each week that scream “potential letdown” to me. This Syracuse-Georgia Tech one does just that, and I’m speaking, of course, of the Yellow Jackets. At 7-0 and coming off a gargantuan win at Duke, head coach Brent Key’s team must now find the motivation to beat a downtrodden and injury-riddled Syracuse team by at least 18 points to cover the Vegas number. As it is, Georgia Tech is just 11-23-1 ATS (32.4%) as a favorite since 2018.
Plus, the Orange, who are slowly getting used to life without former stud QB Steve Angeli, are showing signs of being a dangerous team down the stretch. They have played nearly even-level football in terms of yardage in the last two games, losses to Pitt and Duke, but have been done in by turnovers. Surely, head coach Fran Brown will be addressing that this week with his new QB, Rickie Collins.
It seems that bettors at DraftKings have a unique perspective on this game too, as only 34% of bets, but 61% of handle is on Syracuse as of Wednesday. The handle is generally considered the sharper of the two, and when a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 132-113 ATS (53.9%). It goes to show that being on the side of majority handle when it goes against the grain can pay off.
College Football Week 9 Best Bet: I’ll back Syracuse +17.5 at Georgia Tech on Saturday
Michigan at Michigan State
We have another installment of the Big Brother-Little Brother rivalry for bragging rights in the state of Michigan. Typically, I like to give the underdog the benefit of the doubt in such games, but to me, they have to have demonstrated the ability in recent weeks to at least be competitive. I don’t think the Spartans have done that, and I think there are valid reasons why oddsmakers seem to be baiting us into taking them as 2-TD dogs.
Look at MSU’s recent defensive performance, as they’ve allowed 38 points in each of the last three games and are yielding 39.8 PPG overall in Big Ten games. Now granted, the offenses they have faced have been a lot more prolific than Michigan’s, but they’ve also mustered over 21 PPG against defenses collectively much worse than that of the Wolverines.
My effective play-by-play numbers tell the story of two different-level teams right now, with that metric showing that head coach Sherrone Moore’s team should be favored by 25.7 here, making it the #6 biggest variance game off the actual line for this week. The trends also show that Michigan is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games vs. Big Ten foes when coming off a home win, and 20-9 (69%) ATS in road/neutral games overall in the last four seasons.
College Football Week 9 Best Bet: Michigan -14 gets it done after MSU competes for about a half
Virginia at North Carolina
It was a heartbreaking loss last Friday night for UNC and head coach Bill Belichick, as his team looked to be on its way to a huge road upset at Cal before fumbling away what would have been the go-ahead touchdown. It was the type of loss that a reeling program like this just couldn’t have. Who knows where it goes from here, as rumors swirl around Belichick’s future with the Tar Heels, despite what is being officially said by the program.
The bounce back opportunity comes against a Virginia team that has to be on the complete opposite side of the emotional spectrum, as the Cavaliers come off a close call win over Washington State in which they were favored by 16.5 in a 22-20 win. They have now won five straight games and are 6-1 overall with their sights still set on an ACC title game berth. They also have their mind on revenge this year, as UNC spanked them last year in Charlottesville, 41-14.
On that note, double-digit road favorites have been solid producers in the revenge role, going 52-43 ATS (54.7%) since 2016, and college football teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins on the season than their opponent have been very successful, going 106-20 SU and 82-39-5 ATS (67.8%) since 2016. I look for payback this week in Chapel Hill.
College Football Week 9 Best Bet: Let’s lay the 10.5 points with Virginia at UNC
SMU at Wake Forest
SMU has won back-to-back games against the spread to advance to 2-5 ATS for the season. By all rights, the Mustangs could be 0-7 ATS at this point, as they had no business covering against Stanford for several reasons, and in last week’s game, they beat a Clemson team that was without stud QB Cade Klubnik. Anyone confusing this SMU team with the 11-win one of a year ago is making a mistake. That one was somewhat dominant; this one can be better described as fortunate.
Here they face a Wake Forest team that seems to be getting better each week under new head coach Jake Dickert and has played its best football during a current 3-0 ATS streak. My effective play-by-play ratings really tell the story of how these teams have underperformed and overperformed this season. That metric actually shows that Wake Forest should be a 12.1 point favorite here, a difference of 15.6 points off the actual line.
I’m also very intrigued by the DK betting splits in this game, as they show SMU getting 71% of the bets, while Wake is getting 78% of the handle. In other words, the bigger and perhaps sharper bets are on the side of the Demon Deacons. I agree with that sentiment.
College Football Week 9 Best Bet: Give me Wake Forest +3.5 to cover and potentially upset SMU
Ball State at Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois seems to be going through the motions this season, having now lost six straight games since the opening week’s 19-17 win over Holy Cross. The Huskies are only averaging an effective 17.4 PPG, next to last in the country right now. We are supposed to believe they are deserving of being a 5.5-point favorite over Ball State here? Let’s not forget, Northern Illinois is 5-23-2 (17.9%) ATS in their last 30 home games.
The Cardinals are 3-4 after upsetting Akron last week, setting up a spot where they have won 11 of their last 12 games ATS in MAC play when coming off an upset win. There is also a bit of revenge attached to this game, with BSU having beaten NIU last year 25-23 as 12.5-point dogs. Well, this system says revenge will be tough for NIU: Teams looking to avenge outright losses where they were double-digit favorites have struggled, going just 112-125 ATS (47.3%) since 2016.
I think bettors are seeing through it, with 70% of the handle on the visitors. When a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 132-113 ATS (53.9%).
College Football Week 9 Best Bet: Ball State +5.5 is my play
Kansas State at Kansas
Has there been any team this season that has had it as tough as Kansas State? The Wildcats have lost four games by a combined 13 points. They’ve won their three games by 30 points. In other words, they are much closer to being 7-0 and in the thick of the CFP hunt than they are to the opposite. They’ve also sort of turned their season around in the last three weeks, going 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS.
To keep the momentum going, they will need to beat rival Kansas for a 17th straight time. Oh, but they’ll need to do it as an underdog, as it is the 4-3 Jayhawks that are favored by 3 points. I don’t think the smarter bettors at DraftKings are fooled, as 55% of the bets are on Kansas, but 67% of the handle is on KSU.
Don’t forget, when a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 132-113 ATS (53.9%). The Jayhawks’ recent history as favorites has to be given some consideration, as they are just 7-18 (28%) ATS as a favorite since 2018. With all of the KSU’s losses being close so far, it’s hard to see Kansas handling this game comfortably.
College Football Week 9 Best Bet: I’ll take Kansas State as the 3-point dog at Kansas
Utah State at New Mexico
The Bronco Mendenhall bowl comes Saturday in Albuquerque as he leads his new team, Utah State, against the team he pretty much abandoned after reviving the program last season. Will it be a payback game for the Lobos, or will the team he is reviving now continue its upswing? Well, if the Effective Play-by-Play Ratings I recently released mean anything, I would expect the visiting Aggies to keep ascending. That metric indicates that Utah State should be the team favored here, by 4.1 points, a full 7-point swing from the actual line.
This game also fits into the DK betting splits methodology that I’ve recited a few times already in this column, since 57% of the bets are on the Lobos, but 91% handle is on Utah State. It’s almost like the sharper bettors know that USU is just a better team, with a better coach. We can’t overlook the very obvious recent failure of New Mexico either, as the Lobos are 20-44 (31.3%) ATS in conference games since 2017, and 7-20 (25.9%) ATS as Favorites since 2018.
College Football Week 9 Best Bet: I’ll take Utah State as a very live 3-point underdog
San Diego State at Fresno State
San Diego State has put itself in a position to compete for a berth in the Mountain West title game this season by winning its last four games, both SU and ATS. Fresno State has lost three games in a row ATS and comes off a brutal 49-21 loss at Colorado State. So why does it feel so tough to back SDSU as a slim 3-point favorite on the road Saturday in their head-to-head matchup?
Well, it feels like we are being duped, but sharp bettors at DraftKings might be seeing through it. As of Wednesday, 63% of the bets at this highly public establishment were on red-hot SDSU, but 76% of the handle backed Fresno State. Do the big money players know what’s about to go down? Perhaps they are relying on the fact that FSU is on a perfect 9-0 ATS streak as a home underdog in Mountain West play. In any case, with underdogs on a 5-2 ATS run in the head-to-head series between these teams, this feels like it’s going to be a dogfight.
College Football Week 9 Best Bet: Give me Fresno State as the 3-point home dog to SDSU
Texas A&M at LSU
LSU has been a major disappointment this season, particularly offensively, where it is averaging just 25.6 PPG. Now granted, the Tigers have played some pretty tough defenses to put up that total against. Still, you have to feel that their best football lies ahead. Otherwise, the season will be looked at as a disaster. For a team ranked in the top 10 at the outset of the season, what we’ve seen so far can’t be all they have to offer.
At the same time, Texas A&M seems to be much better than anyone thought heading into the season, currently boasting a perfect 7-0 mark. Are there any reasons to be concerned for the Aggies? Absolutely. Head coach Mike Elko’s team is just 3-4 ATS, has allowed 40 or more points in two separate games, and all of their SEC wins have been over teams currently not ranked. Here they travel to one of the toughest environments in the country, Saturday night in Baton Rouge. We all know that in games featuring two ranked opponents,
Home teams are now 210-104 SU and 183-122-9 ATS (60%) since 2017. Plus, there are a number of recent team tendencies that either back LSU or go against A&M. Among them, LSU is 15-5 ATS in the last 20 SEC games when coming off a road loss (lost at Vandy last week). In addition, LSU is 17-7 SU and 15-7 ATS (68.2%) in revenge mode since 2016 (A&M beat LSU last year 38-23). And finally, Texas A&M is 5-12 SU and 4-12-2 ATS (25%) on the road since 2021.
College Football Week 9 Best Bet: I’ll back LSU +2.5 as the Saturday night home dog in Baton Rouge
Missouri at Vanderbilt
Followers of the VSiN College Football Analytics Report, or my best bets column for that matter, know that I love preaching the successes of home teams in games featuring two ranked opponents. I’ve been doing it seemingly every week for the last two seasons, and this past week it came up big, with hosts Vanderbilt, BYU, Notre Dame, and Alabama all posting big wins in such matchups. Well, there are only two such games for this week, and only one of them has the three-part trend sequence I back religiously, and those trends back Vanderbilt here.
1) In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 210-104 SU and 183-122-9 ATS (60%). 2) Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 121-28 SU and 90-55-4 ATS (62.1%). 3) Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 62-25 SU and 55-29-3 ATS (65.5%) since 2017. However, you might be asking, could Vandy be in over its head here, finally, being a home favorite over another ranked team? I think last week proved that to be invalid, plus, if anyone is in over its head, consider this trend: Missouri is 1-18 SU in the last 19 games vs top 10 SEC teams.
College Football Week 9 Best Bet: I’ll ride Vanderbilt (-2.5) and red-hot QB Diego Pavia
South Florida at Memphis
Could Memphis have been caught looking ahead to this game versus South Florida in its 31-24 loss at UAB? Well, if not, the Tigers’ effort clearly wasn’t focused, and now with starting QB Brendon Lewis potentially missing this week’s huge contest, you have to wonder how much head coach Ryan Silverfield’s team will have in the tank for the Bulls.
Systematically, it doesn’t look good for Memphis, since teams that lose in a college football game as favorites of 19.5 points or more have gone just 42-70 SU and 40-68-4 ATS (37%) in the follow-up contest since 2012. Plus, USF is scoring an effective 44.5 PPG this season, #2 among all Group of Five teams, making them a very viable road favorite. If you consider the recent history between these teams, it’s also advantage Bulls as road teams are on a 10-0-1 ATS run in the MEM-USF series.
College Football Week 9 Best Bet: I’ll side with USF laying 5.5 points at Memphis
Oklahoma State at Texas Tech
Seeing the total for the Oklahoma State-Texas Tech sitting at 56.5 as of Wednesday, it caught my attention as it seems that there are very few games in Lubbock with that low of a total. I had to do some digging to confirm my suspicions. I was correct. In its last 24 home games, Texas Tech has only had a lower total once, and that was a 56 versus Baylor in what turned out to be a 59-35 decision. For the record, in those 24 games, the average total has been 61.7, and the games have produced 70 PPG with the Red Raiders accounting for 42.3 of them.
Am I suggesting that we are to see a 70-point type of game on Saturday versus OSU? Well, with the Cowboys being down, perhaps not, but I still think the game is bound to go Over. After all, Big 12 home favorites of 21 points or more have seen totals go Over at a 24-10 (70.6%) rate since 2016. Is OSU bad to the point where it won’t be able to score? Absolutely not, as the Cowboys have put up 18.5 PPG in their conference contests. That is not an unreasonable amount to expect in a game versus a Texas Tech team that has allowed 16 PPG in league play. Plus, if you consider that TT has scored on average 22.1 PPG more than their opponents have allowed, head coach Joey McGuire’s team would hit 60 if the math plays out.
College Football Week 9 Best Bet: Give me OVER 56.5 in Texas Tech-Oklahoma State
Illinois at Washington
This is the one game of the week where I am going to buck my Effective Play-by-Play variance top games list and go the other way. For the record, the numbers on that metric say Washington should be favored by 11.6 here, not 4.5. So why do I not trust the numbers in this case? Well, I personally believe that the Huskies have beefed up their numbers significantly against the weaker opponents they’ve played.
In their four games against what I would consider weaker opponents, they have scored 51.3 PPG, while against the three opponents they have faced with a pulse, they have put up just 12.3 PPG. The inordinate figures can throw statistical measures off a lot. I would certainly put Illinois in the group of stronger opponents that the Huskies will have faced.
According to Illini head coach Bret Bielema, he still considers his team a CFP-level squad despite blowout losses to Ohio State and Indiana, perhaps the two top teams in the country right now. With that belief system behind them, and a 17-5 ATS (77.3%) record in Droadgames since 2021, Illinois has the goods to make a game of this one.
College Football Week 9 Best Bet: I’ll back Illinois +4.5 in the great Northwest on Saturday
Colorado State at Wyoming
I don’t think you can ever take one good performance into account and consider that the new norm for any team. That was sort of proven with Colorado State last weekend when they were beaten 31-19 as a road favorite at Hawaii after seemingly finally turning the corner the prior week in a 49-21 rout of Fresno State. In the end, the body of work for the Rams still shows that they have a ton of work left to do to regain competitiveness in the Mountain West.
Here, they face an underrated tough contest in Wyoming. Why do I say it’s underrated? Well, Wyoming is only 3-4, but they are usually tough at home, and its effective play-by-play rating shows that it could actually be much better than overall strength ratings suggest.
In fact, when comparing their EPBP rating to CSU’s, it shows that Wyoming should actually be favored by 13.6 points, a full 9.1-point difference from the actual line. If you look back at the recent history between these teams, you will also find that home teams have covered six straight ATS in the CSU-WYO set. Again, this is a much tougher spot for CSU than it appears by the line.
College Football Week 9 Best Bet: I’ll take Wyoming to cover the 4.5 points at home versus CSU
For more college football Week 9 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 9 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
