Notre Dame vs. Georgia

Lookahead lines for this quarterfinal meeting between Notre Dame and Georgia had the Irish as the favorite prior to their win over Indiana. Initial opening numbers did indeed favor Notre Dame, but in the minutes after the line opened, the market flipped in Georgia’s direction.

Georgia quarterback Carson Beck underwent surgery to repair his UCL, which means it is backup Gunner Stockton’s show in this round of the postseason, and moving forward should the Bulldogs advance.

 

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Let’s break it all down and see if there’s a good bet to be made.

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Sugar Bowl: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Georgia Bulldogs (-1, 44)

How To Watch The Sugar Bowl

When: Thursday, January 2nd, 4 p.m. ET, postponed from Wednesday because of the terrorist attack in New Orleans.

How: ESPN

Where: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA

Notre Dame largely dominated Indiana in its first round win over the Hoosiers in South Bend. The Irish outgained the Hoosiers by 116 yards and led 27-3 with less than five minutes left in the contest. On the surface, it was a comfortable victory, but digging in to the weeds of box score presents something which could hold Notre Dame back in the Sugar Bowl.

Notre Dame ran for 193 yards against Indiana in the first round, but 98 of those yards came via a touchdown run in the first quarter from Jeremiah Love. On the 34 other attempts the Irish totaled 95 yards, which equates to 2.8 yards per carry. They averaged just 5.6 yards per play in the game overall, and just 4.3 yards per play without the run from Love.

A stagnant offensive performance in one game does not define the Irish, but it is fair to wonder what this offense looks like on a neutral field setting against one of the best defenses in the country if that is all it could muster against a lesser opponent at home.

Georgia has allowed just 3.8 yards per carry and 129.3 yards per game on the ground this season. It ranks eighth in opponent EPA per rush and 24th in defensive success rate against the run. Notre Dame wants to establish the run. This season, 55.2% of the Irish’s plays have been a run and they averaged 35.6 attempts per game. If they cannot run the ball efficiently it not only takes away the biggest part of their gameplan, but it threatens to expose Riley Leonard as a passer.

Leonard was not asked to do much through the air this season. His 326 attempts had him tied for 59th among qualified passers. He ranked 52nd in the country in PFF passing grade and his 7.7 ADOT had him tied for 135th in the country. If the offense is forced to open up the passing attack it is fair to wonder whether Leonard can effectively attack the Bulldogs’ secondary.

Having said that, not much is known about Stockton for Georgia. Stockton has 62 dropbacks in his college career and 20 of those came against Texas in the SEC Championship. In that game he completed 12 passes for 4.4 yards per attempt and threw an interception that nearly cost the Bulldogs the game.

Georgia is not an efficient running attack by any stretch. The Bulldogs are 82nd in yards per carry (4.0) and 96th in rush yards per game (126.3). In terms of success rate on the ground, it ranks 36th in the country. It would seem unlikely that Georgia will be able to establish success on the ground against Notre Dame which does rank ninth in opponent EPA per rush. 

It should be mentioned that the Irish are extremely thin up front. Defensive tackle Rylie Mills is out for the rest of the season due to a knee injury suffered in the win over Indiana. The defensive line for Notre Dame is dealing with numerous injuries now, and that could raise the floor for this Georgia running game.

Still, it is hard to believe the Bulldogs will be able to move the ball effectively. Just as it is difficult to see Leonard leading the Irish to victory through the air. Which is why the play here seems to be the under. Both teams will want to run the ball. Both teams can be effective stopping the run. With a constant running clock, two good defenses and two limited signal-callers, this game seems destined to be a rock fight. 

Pick: UNDER 44

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