Week 6 College Football: Syracuse vs. UNLV

If the college football betting odds are telling us the truth, only one of Friday’s four games might be competitive. Syracuse and UNLV actually looks like a real doozy to take us into another college football Saturday. Betting lines technically make every game competitive, at least for those wagering on them, but Friday’s other three games feature lines of -16.5 or higher at time of writing.

So, let’s dig deeper into that Syracuse/UNLV clash and also touch on Jacksonville State/Kennesaw State, Houston/TCU, and Michigan State/Oregon in this preview of the Week 6 Friday games.

 

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For all of this week’s college football insights, refer to our College Football Week 6 Hub.

Syracuse Orange at UNLV Rebels (-6.5, 58.5)

9 p.m. ET (FS1)

The Matthew Sluka soap opera dominated a lot of headlines last week, but the true domination was what UNLV did to Fresno State. Campbell transfer Hajj-Malik Williams took over at QB when Sluka abruptly left the program after a NIL dispute and led the highly-motivated Rebels to a 59-14 demolition of Fresno State.

But, it’s a new week and a better opponent is in town. The Orange are hitting the road for the first time this season and have a shocking home loss to Syracuse on the ledger, but they’ve scored at least 31 points in each of their wins with a transfer QB of their own in Kyle McCord. McCord already has 14 TD passes to his name and LeQuint Allen has averaged better than five yards per carry.

The Orange offense does need to get TE Oronde Gadsden back into the mix, as he was the team’s leading receiver after two weeks, but hasn’t been seen much since. The Orange have thrown the ball 177 times against 118 runs, as the new coaching staff led by head coach Fran Brown is relying heavily on the former Buckeye.

To me, this feels like a step up in class for the UNLV defense. Perhaps the unit will be very strong under longtime DC Barry Odom, but Kansas and Houston both look awful this season and Fresno State lost Jeff Tedford less than a month before the season started. I think the Rebels defense gets tested here.

I certainly think UNLV can still get theirs, as Syracuse’s defense hasn’t stood out in any way and ranks below the national average in yards per carry allowed. Williams racked up over 300 all-purpose yards, with 182 through the air and 119 on the ground. He’s a tough player to defend against.

I just find this to be enough of a step up for the Rebels defense that Syracuse can cover the 6.5 here. I wouldn’t be shocked if this line gets to 7. For the purposes of lead time and getting the article out, it’s 6.5, but a 7 could be coming. The total is also likely to keep rising from 58.5 where it sits now.

Pick: Syracuse +6.5

Other Friday Games

Jacksonville State Gamecocks (-16.5, 49) at Kennesaw State Owls: The 7 p.m. kick on CBS Sports Network between Jacksonville State and Kennesaw State is a game to keep an eye on. Not because it will be a good one, but because Tuesday and Wednesday Conference USA games begin next week. That means it’s a good time to familiarize yourself with those teams.

The Owls are in the running with Kent State for the worst FBS team this season and just lost 24-13 to FCS UT Martin. They’re 0-3 in FBS games by a combined score of 93-36. But, Jacksonville State looks a few notches down from last season with an 0-3 start, including blowout losses at the hands of Coastal Carolina and Louisville. Kennesaw State is actually one of my biggest power ratings overlays of the week because of how disappointing the Gamecocks have been.

Southern Miss turned it over six times last game to help the Cocks to a 44-7 win. As long as Kennesaw State takes better care of the ball, they have a chance to keep it close.

Pick: Kennesaw State +16.5

Houston Cougars at TCU Horned Frogs (-16.5, 51.5): ESPN has this 7:30 p.m. ET contest in Fort Worth between a couple of disappointing teams. Houston has been awful on offense. They beat Rice 33-7, but have scored 7, 12, 0, and 0 points in their four games against good teams. I’m not sure TCU is a “good” team, but they are better than Rice.

The scores would suggest TCU’s defense has been trash, but they’ve only allowed 5.5 yards per play in four FBS games. Being -6 in TO margin doesn’t help, as they are tied for second in the nation with six lost fumbles. QB Josh Hoover has played well on the whole, but the running game is weak. No play from me here, as I do have TCU -13.5, but have no interest in taking the Cougs.

Michigan State Spartans at Oregon Ducks (-24, 52.5): The huge clash between Oregon and Ohio State is next week, but the Ducks need to focus and get past Michigan State first. Dan Lanning’s crew still doesn’t seem to be operating at full strength, as the blowout win in the Civil War game with Oregon State failed to carry over into the first quarter against UCLA. The Ducks looked a little hungover in their first Big Ten game and only led 7-3 after one, but eventually won 34-13 over the lowly Bruins.

Ohio State did the same with Michigan State last week and then pulled away, as Sparty trailed 3-0 after one and then the floodgates opened. We’ll see if Jonathan Smith’s team faces a similar face here, but he’s obviously very familiar with Lanning and the Ducks after coaching at Oregon State for six seasons, including two with Lanning at the helm in Eugene.

I’m not sure Sparty has the talent to hang for the full 60, but a slow start keeps them around and Oregon may start peaking towards the Buckeyes later in the game.

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