TCU Horned Frogs:

Only 10 starters returned for Sonny Dykes last season, and the stepback many expected came to fruition in 2023. TCU went 5-7 SU and ATS and regressed mightily on offense. The outlook is somewhat different this season with 16 returners back from 2023. Dykes and the Horned Frogs are looking to sneak up on some folks once more in the Big 12.

Offense

Redshirt sophomore Josh Hoover is the expected starter for TCU after he started six games last season. Hoover – thrust into action due to injury – completed 62.3% of attempts for 7.4 yards per attempts and 13 touchdowns as a starter. The sophomore will have to cut down on turnover-worthy plays (12) this season, but his 84.3 PFF passing grade when kept clean signified an ability to keep the offense on track when he was protected.

 

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Luckily, Hoover has plenty of returning production to work with. TCU’s top two receivers in 2023 – Savion Williams and JP Richardson – return this season. Williams was an explosive weapon who averaged 14 yards per reception and caught four touchdowns. Richardson lined up mostly in the slot where he averaged 6.4 yards after catch per reception.

If Hoover does not develop as expected, he could hold this group back. So could an offensive line that returns just two players who started multiple games for TCU last season. Multiple transfers come in—James Brocemeyers from Alabama is the big name—but the position should be weaker in 2024.

Defense

One of the sneaky surprises of last season for TCU was a defense that performed statistically better than the group that made it to the College Football Playoff. The Horned Frogs allowed just 4.0 yards per carry, 27.8 points per game and 5.6 yards per play. This season, nine starters return from that unit.

An expected weakness for TCU will likely be the secondary. Cornerback Josh Newton was a fifth-round draft pick, and safety Mark Perry departed in the offseason. With those two in the lineup, the Horned Frogs finished 83rd in opponent EPA per dropback. Despite the addition of some transfers, this group is likely to finish no better than that mark this season.

The 2023 unit would not be confused with any of the best defenses in college football, but it was a serviceable group. With a defensive line and linebacker group that returns mostly intact, they should be just as effective against the run this season. Should new DC Andy Avalos get more out of this group, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see TCU push for a top-50 run defense.

Outlook

Everything for TCU hinges on the play of Hoover. If he can take a legitimate step forward as a quarterback, this group could compete for a Big 12 title. The schedule is daunting, but they draw most of the big boys at home. Dykes has shown an ability to get the most out of an offense, and this group has more than last season. Don’t be shocked to see TCU floating around the top of the league near season’s end.

Pick: Over 7.5 Wins

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