TCU vs. North Carolina Odds and Picks
The Bill Belichick North Carolina era will begin on Monday, September 1st, when the North Carolina Tar Heels host the TCU Horned Frogs in a fun Week 1 matchup. We’re going to be diving into some of the biggest college football games of the week this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds and picks for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 1 College Football Betting Hub for a look at all of our college football betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How to Watch TCU vs. North Carolina
Where: Kenan Memorial Stadium in Chapel Hill, North Carolina
When: Monday, September 1st at 8:00 pm ET
Channel: ESPN
TCU vs. North Carolina Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of 7:45 pm ET on Friday, August 29th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: TCU -170, North Carolina +142
Spread: TCU -3.5 (-108), North Carolina +3.5 (-112)
Total: Over 56.5 (-110), Under 56.5 (-110)
TCU vs. North Carolina Analysis
When DraftKings Sportsbook first put lines out for this game, North Carolina was favored by 2.5. However, despite our VSiN betting splits page showing public interest in the Tar Heels, the Horned Frogs are now favored by more than a field goal in most spots. The total has also gone through a pretty big change since April, as it opened at 59.5 and it’s down a full three points in most places.
I don’t have a strong lean on the total, but it’s hard to argue with the Under being the better play. We don’t know much about what a Belichick-led college team will look like, but it’s hard to imagine this being anything but a run-first offense and a hard-nosed defense. After all, our old pal Mike Lombardi helped Belichick land some proven talent along the offensive line. That’ll allow the Heels to challenge teams between the tackles. And defensively, not only is Belichick one of the brightest minds in the history of the sport, but his son has proven to be a good defensive coach in his own right.
Belichick might also want to muck this game up. North Carolina likely can’t keep up with Sonny Dykes’ “Veer and Shoot” offense — especially with Josh Hoover, who was seventh in the nation in passing yards (3,949) last year, back to operate it.
As far as the side goes, there’s a lot to like about TCU. Last year, the Horned Frogs were tied for 25th in the nation in yards per play allowed (5.0). For a program that is now known for its high-scoring offense, that’s pretty damn good. And TCU will have eight players with starting experience back on defense this year. A lot of them will be in the secondary, which is why the Horned Frogs should like this matchup. North Carolina is very unproven when it comes to the offensive side of the ball, where Gio Lopez isn’t the most inspiring quarterback option and there’s no telling what his supporting cast will look like. Also, while Belichick might have felt he was doing the right thing in bringing Freddie Kitchens back as offensive coordinator, it’s hard not to feel like there were better options out there.
I also can’t see the Tar Heels defense completely keeping the Horned Frogs down. There’s a chance Dykes’ offense will look like child’s play to Belichick, but does the legendary coach have the talent he needs to stop it? Hoover is a damn good passer at this level, the offensive line looks like a strength and there’s a bunch of weapons for him to choose from. So, I’m not writing off a unit that was 17th in the nation in EPA per play (0.15) last year just because of the guy on the other sideline.
Dykes is also 12-1 straight-up and 8-4-1 against the spread as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points with TCU. He doesn’t lose games he’s supposed to win, and the team generally takes care of business in said spots.
TCU vs. North Carolina Prediction
The atmosphere in Chapel Hill is going to be electric in a Monday night debut for the GOAT, but there’s a lot of uncertainty with this team in Year 1. I wouldn’t put it past Belichick to find a way to put things together, but it’s unlikely it’ll happen right out the gate. And I tend to think it’ll take a year or two. So, I’m laying some points with TCU, but I’m making sure I can get a 2.5 — even at a juiced number.
Bet: TCU -2.5 (-141)
