Tennessee vs. Alabama
Alabama-Tennessee is set to deliver real fireworks in Tuscaloosa as two top-15 teams meet with plenty at stake on Saturday night. The Crimson Tide, riding a five-game win streak, haven’t lost to the Vols at home in over 20 years, but Tennessee’s high-powered offense — led by Joey Aguilar — has fans optimistic about breaking the streak. Expect plenty of momentum swings and betting intrigue in one of the weekend’s most interesting matchups — and keep reading for odds, tips, and the best ways to play this heavyweight tilt.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of October 17, 5:45 pm ET; check out our DraftKings Betting Splits and Circa Betting Splits.
Tennessee Volunteers at Alabama Crimson Tide (-8.5, 59.5)
Saturday, October 18 at 7:30 pm ET
It’s somewhat tempting to go with Alabama in this game, as Ty Simpson should be able to have his way with this Tennessee defense. Simpson has thrown for 1,678 yards with 16 touchdowns and only one pick this year, and the Vols are just barely inside the top-100 in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.12).
This is the type of glaring mismatch that offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb should be able to exploit. This is also a revenge spot with Josh Heupel’s team having won 24-17 in Knoxville last year. Speaking of Heupel, Tennessee is 0-6 against the spread when playing away from home against teams that average 8.0 or more yards per pass attempt. The Vols have lost those games by an average of 17.2 points per game.
However, it’s a little hard to accept laying more than a touchdown. At some point, Alabama could be in for a letdown performance. Kalen DeBoer’s team has faced Georgia, Vanderbilt, and Missouri over the last three games. That’s a relentless schedule. Also, Tennessee’s a damn good football team.
If I had to play something here, I’d simply go with the Over. While 58.5 is a very high number, these are two top-10 teams in both Adjusted EPA per play and Dropback EPA per play. The Volunteers have also gone Over in five of their six games, and the Tide are 3-2-1 to the Over. These teams both play at relatively fast tempos, and neither team has the most reliable defense. There should be no shortage of explosive plays in this one, with Aguilar and Simpson both hitting their big-time wideouts over the top.
The Over is also 5-2 in the seven games Tennessee has played as a road underdog under Heupel, and it’s also 6-1 when the Vols’ efficient rushing attack gets to go against a defense that allows at least 4.75 yards per carry.
We also have an estimated score of Alabama 35.9 to Tennessee 24.7 here, which is a slight edge to the Over.
Lean: Over 58.5 (-115)
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