Tennessee vs. Illinois
On Tuesday, December 30, the Tennessee Volunteers will take on the Illinois Fighting Illini in the Music City Bowl at Nissan Stadium. This should look a bit like a Vols home game, as this one will be played in Nashville. That’s only a three-hour drive from Knoxville. Also, as far as SEC teams go, Tennessee isn’t in the worst shape when it comes to opt-outs, transfers, and all the other postseason nonsense that has become normal in college football. The Fighting Illini won’t have to deal with as much of it, but the Volunteers could be looking a heck of a lot worse. With that in mind, keep reading for a Tennessee vs. Illinois betting preview.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of December 26, 9:30 pm ET; check out our DraftKings Betting Splits and Circa Betting Splits.
Music City Bowl: Tennessee (-2.5, 61.5) vs. Illinois
Tuesday, Dec. 30, 5:30 pm ET (ESPN)
Tennessee won’t have star wide receiver Chris Brazzell II for this game, as he’s getting a head start on his NFL Draft preparation. The team will also be without Joshua Josephs, Arion Carter, and Colton Hood, who are three of the best defensive players on the team. However, the Vols will seemingly have Lance Heard, Bryson Eason, Miles Kitselman, and Jalen McMurray, and they all could have decided to sit. And overall, Josh Heupel likes the group of players he’ll have active, and he said his team has gotten some good reps together.
Illinois hasn’t been left unscathed either. The Illini will be missing star tackle JC Davis. Also, Gabe Jacas, the Big Ten leader in sacks, opted out, and safety Matthew Bailey will miss the game with an injury.
Overall, it looks like the Volunteers will be missing a few more starters than the Illini, but Tennessee has more high-level producers playing. The Vols also have the more talented backups, as Heupel has done a good job of adding talent to his program.
Realistically, it’s hard not to view Tennessee as the right side here. The Vols have a slightly better EPA per play than the Illini (0.187 vs. 0.153), and they also happen to be playing very close to home. Also, with both of these teams missing some important pass rushers and secondary players, it’s big that Tennessee will have a slight edge at the quarterback spot. Joey Aguilar is a bit more dangerous than Luke Altmyer as a playmaker, so he’s more likely to make Illinois pay for any defensive absences.
However, the best play to make in this game might be the Over. While it might seem like backing Tennessee so close to home is the right move — especially in an SEC vs. Big Ten matchup — the offenses will be the best units on the field here. The Vols are 16th in the nation in EPA per play (0.151), while the Illini are 25th (0.112). Also, the offenses are much closer to full strength than the defenses. That said, why worry about who scores more? Just root for scoring.
The Over is also 4-1 when Tennessee plays games with lines of +3 to -3 under Heupel. There’s also a similar trend with Illinois, as the Over is 7-5 in the 12 game with lines of +3 to -3 that the Illini have played under Bret Bielema.
Tennessee vs. Illinois Music City Bowl Prediction
I have a really strong lean on Tennessee in this game, so I’d back the Vols if you came here looking specifically for a side. But I do think the Over is how you want to play this game. These were two explosive offenses during the regular season, so they should do some good things with extra time to prepare for beaten-up defenses.
Pick: Over 61 (-110)
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