Texas Tech Red Raiders:
Joey McGuire enters his third season in Lubbock with mounting pressure on his performance as head coach. The Red Raiders took a small step back with one fewer win than 2022, and while quarterback injuries tell part of the story, Texas Tech took some unquestionably bad losses last season. McGuire has most of his offense back this season, and many believe the Red Raiders are the dark horse to take the conference in 2024.
Offense
Quarterback has been a nightmare for McGuire in his time at Lubbock. In his first two seasons the Texas Tech head coach has had six different starting quarterbacks. Presumed starter Behren Morton missed spring with a shoulder injury, but swore to the media during Big 12 media days that he was “100% healthy” and ready to go.
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For Texas Tech to surpass market expectations, that needs to be true. Morton also needs to improve as a passer. The fourth-year signal caller is extremely volatile when on the field. In 526 career dropbacks he has a turnover-worthy play rate of 4.4%. For reference, that would place him 104th among qualified quarterbacks last season. If Morton can take care of the football, the Red Raiders have the pieces in place to be explosive on offense.
Tahj Brooks is one of the best running backs in the Big 12. He ran for 1,538 yards, averaged 5.3 yards per carry and forced the most missed tackles in the conference (91). Coy Eakin was the third-leading receiver in 2023, but finished just seven receptions behind the leader last season. Five-star wide receiver Micah Hudson comes in this season as well.
Defense
Texas Tech’s defense is the biggest question mark, as is usually the case with Big 12 programs. Only five starters are back from last season, but last season’s group was hardly reminiscent of 2011 Alabama.
The Red Raiders lose quite a bit of talent along the defensive line this season. Myles Cole was a seventh-round draft pick. Third-team Big 12 nose tackle Jaylon Hutchings and Tony Bradford are gone. McGuire supplemented the group with transfers from power programs, but it figures to be worse.
In even worse shape is the secondary. Three starters departed, and all three were extremely productive. In all, seven interceptions and 13 pass breakups are gone from last season’s group. This group finished 58th in opponent EPA per dropback in 2023, but it is certainly taking a step back this season after the losses it suffered in the offseason.
Outlook
Like many programs, the success of Texas Tech hinges upon the health and play of its quarterback. Morton is expected to start, but even when he was on the field, he was average at best. If he does not improve – or he misses time – what will the realistic expectation be for the Red Raiders? The market is shaded to the Over on the team’s win total, but seven or fewer wins seems like a safer expectation.
Pick: Under 7.5 Wins
