On Friday, December 27th, we’ll see the Texas Tech Red Raiders face the Arkansas Razorbacks in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl. This is the third of five games on the schedule for Friday, and it’ll be interesting to see how this one goes. Keep reading for odds, analysis and predictions for this showdown. But make sure you also check out our College Football Bowl Games Hub for all of our VSiN college football betting content.

AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Arkansas Razorbacks

How To Watch Texas Tech vs. Arkansas

Where: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee
When: 7:00 pm ET on Friday, December 27th
Channel: ESPN

 

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Texas Tech vs. Arkansas Odds

Moneyline: Arkansas -118, Texas Tech -108
Spread: Arkansas -1.5 (-112), Texas Tech +1.5 (-108)
Total: Over 52 (-112), Under 52 (-108)

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish. They can change. Shop around for the best prices!

Texas Tech vs. Arkansas Prediction

This game isn’t exactly the best endorsement for the current state of bowl season. Texas Tech offensive coordinator Zach Kittley is gone after having been hired to be the head coach at Florida Atlantic, and the Red Raiders had already fired defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter. So, Texas Tech will be without its coaches on both sides of the ball, and the team also lost starting tackle Ty Buchanan to the transfer portal. On top of that, Behren Morton is out for this game, leaving freshman Will Hammond as the starter. The team also has a few other players that are banged up and could miss this game, and star wide receiver Josh Kelly opted out to get ready for the draft.

The crazy thing is that all of that stuff is nothing compared to what Arkansas is dealing with. The Razorbacks have three starting offensive linemen leaving through the transfer portal, along with wide receiver Isaiah Sategna, tight end Luke Hasz and safety TJ Metcalf. Arkansas will also be without Andrew Armstrong, Ja’Quinden Jackson, Landon Jackson and Eric Gregory, who have all opted out of this game. There are also quite a few non-starters that played a good amount of snaps that are transferring. Arkansas is going to be left with very little protection up front, as there just aren’t a lot of scholarship linemen left on the roster. The Hogs also have nothing at the skill positions.

With all of Arkansas’ absences, it’s hard not to see Texas Tech as a good plus-money play. I know Taylen Green is one heck of a playmaker at the quarterback position, and his ability to run makes him very difficult to prepare for. But the Red Raiders can probably send pressure at him all game. They’ll get home with a bunch of sacks and tackles for loss, and they shouldn’t have to worry too much about Green making big plays over the top. He’s working with a receiver group that he hasn’t played with at all.

Texas Tech also happens to be 36th in the country in EPA per play allowed (-0.048), while Arkansas is 47th in the nation (-0.026). Meanwhile, the teams are pretty much identical in EPA per play, as the Red Raiders were 37th (0.045) and the Razorbacks were 38th (0.044). That said, even when these teams were at full strength, Texas Tech was as good as Arkansas, if not better, statistically.

The Red Raiders are also 2-0 both straight-up and against the spread in bowl games under Joey McGuire, and they’re 4-1 both SU and ATS when playing with two or more weeks of rest. So, they should be prepared for this one, even if it’s a different coaching staff than usual.

I also wouldn’t hate a play on the Under in this one. Texas Tech likely won’t feel great about its quarterback situation, so Arkansas isn’t alone in looking shaky offensively heading into this game. This game could be ugly on the eyes.

Pick: Texas Tech ML (+104 – 1.5 units)

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