Toledo vs. Louisville
There has been a lot going on in the lead-up to the Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl of Beans. The first of three bowl games on Tuesday features Toledo vs. Louisville and this game has become more about who is not in it than who is, at least until we get to kickoff. Toledo head coach Jason Candle was hired at UConn and QB Coach Robert Weiner will serve as the interim. A good program like Toledo has the chance to get poached in the transfer portal, and that’s the case here, with three key defensive opt-outs and possibly more to come. Oh, and Toledo’s starting QB is hurt and unlikely to play.
On the Louisville side, the coaching staff is mostly intact, but the player personnel is the worry. The Cardinals have two key defensive linemen out, star WR Chris Bell, and potentially star RB Isaac Brown. With all of those storylines and moving parts, this is a tough handicap and this has been a dancing line, but Toledo vs. Louisville predominantly sat -7 as of Saturday afternoon.
Odds from Circa Sports as of December 20, 11:00 a.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl: Toledo vs. Louisville (-7, 44.5)
Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2 p.m. ET
Alright, now that we’ve looked at and talked about some of the people that won’t be there, let’s talk about some of them that will. Louisville QB Miller Moss was questionable heading into this game with an injury, but he’s announced his intentions to play and it seems like he’ll be able to give it a go. It was an underwhelming season for Moss, the USC transfer who left to join the quarterback whisperer Jeff Brohm.
Seems like Brohm didn’t whisper enough, as Moss basically repeated his completion percentage and yardage totals from his last season at USC, but had just a 14/7 TD/INT ratio. To make matters worse in this game, Bell had 72 catches for 917 yards and six touchdowns. The next closest guy was Caullin Lacy with 54 catches for 547 yards. No other Louisville pass-catcher had more than two touchdowns.
Lacy will seemingly play, despite a Senior Bowl invite and some injuries over the course of the year. If either Brown can’t go at running back, Lacy should be even busier in this one. Isaac ran for 782 yards and 8.6 yards per carry, while Keyjuan ran for 592 yards and 7.3 yards per carry. Being severely limited on the skill position front against a Toledo defense that led the nation in yards per play allowed with 3.91 isn’t ideal.
However, along with Candle’s departure, legendary Mount Union head coach and former Toledo DC Vince Kehres has moved on to Syracuse, which is part of the reason why several Rockets defenders have either opted out already or are considering it. This won’t be the same defense that was one of three to hold opponents under four yards per play this season.
Toledo’s offense was 28th in yards per play, so they had a strong season as well, but that side of the ball is also up in the air. Veteran QB Tucker Gleason posted 2,515 passing yards and a 21/9 TD/INT ratio, but it looks unlikely that he will play. Freshman Kalieb Osborne is likely to get the start and he only had 24 pass attempts, but he did run for 205 yards on just 33 carries. He’ll use his legs even more if star WR Junior Vandeross opts out of the game. He led the team with 75 catches and 947 yards, both more than double the next closest guy.
Toledo vs. Louisville Boca Raton Bowl Prediction
This is one of those perplexing and difficult bowl season bets with opt-outs, coaching changes, a potentially unmotivated Power Four team against a MAC school. Lots and lots of moving parts to this game. With all the skill position questions and the likely QB change for Toledo, we’ve also seen this total tick down a point.
With Toledo’s strong defense taken down a few pegs thanks to opt-outs and the loss of a brilliant football mind in Kehres, Louisville should have the better athletes and the better talent, even with their injury problems.
Pick: Louisville -7
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