Toledo vs. Miami
Two days worth of MACtion. What could be better? After a couple of games on Tuesday to kick off Week 12, we have three games on Wednesday featuring six MAC teams. Unfortunately, the MAC decided to adopt an asinine schedule structure, as all three games kick off at 7 p.m. ET, which means ample overlap. Toledo vs. Miami is clearly the top game, followed by Buffalo vs. Central Michigan and Northern Illinois vs. UMass.
The weather has the chance to have a little bit of an impact if the wind doesn’t die down in Mount Pleasant or Amherst, but it shouldn’t be too bad for a bunch of mid-November games in the Great Lakes region.
Odds from Circa Sports as of November 11, 2:30 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 12 College Football Picks and Predictions.
Toledo (-4, 45.5) at Miami (OH)
7 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
The Rockets are one of the hardest teams in the country to figure out. There are a lot of positives with them. They’re second in the country in yards per play allowed. They’re top five in offensive plays of 10+ yards and top 40 in offensive plays of 20+ yards. But, the Rockets don’t fly as far as they’d like, as they’re well down the board in plays of 30+ and 40+ yards.
That’s still better than Miami’s offense, which ranks tied for 97th in plays of 10+ yards and tied for 81st in plays of 20+ yards. The RedHawks are staying on schedule for the most part, though, as they’ve failed to create a lot of explosives, but they are 56th in the nation with 5.9 yards per play. They’ve actually done worse on a per-play basis in MAC games.
Toledo is 31st in yards per play thanks to a lot of those explosives and they’ve racked up nearly 6.6 yards per play in conference action. And they’ve allowed just 3.6 YPP in conference games. So, they’re outgaining opponents by nearly three yards per play. Yet, they are 3-2 in MAC games, with losses to Western Michigan and rival Bowling Green.
From a metrics standpoint, Toledo is stellar. From a wins and losses standpoint, they’ve not lived up to the numbers. Head coach Jason Candle struggles badly with being the favorite. Candle has lost 18 times as a favorite including 11 as at least a touchdown favorite. He’s not that big of a favorite here, but it’s a role that he does not do well in.
Chuck Martin at Miami is a really strong head coach and he’s been able to make a lot out of relatively little with his teams. The RedHawks had something of a bad beat last week against Ohio for their first conference loss of the campaign. Their metrics are not nearly as good as Toledo’s, making this a tougher handicap.
Miami has only outgained MAC opponents by a little better than a half-yard per play. That is definitely not what you are looking for, especially with a team that has won four of its five games in conference, as it feels like regression is very possible. A +5 mark in TO margin in those games has been a contributing factor and Toledo takes great care of the ball.
Rather than trust Candle, though, I’ll look at the Under in this one. Miami has only allowed 3.7 yards per carry in league play and Toledo is even better than that. It may not be the best night for throwing the ball with cooler weather and both teams will be trying to avoid mistakes in a big game.
Pick: Under 45.5
Other Wednesday Games
Northern Illinois (-11.5, 43.5) at UMass: The Huskies play one of the two offenses worse than theirs in this one. The other, at least from a yards per play standpoint, is Wisconsin. UMass has picked up just 3.87 yards per play and was taken to the woodshed by both Akron and Kent State. The UMass defense has given up almost a yard per play more than the NIU defense as well. It would be Northern Illinois or nothing here, but laying 11.5 with a team averaging 12.2 points per game is a big ask.
Buffalo at Central Michigan (-1.5, 44.5): Buffalo is among the 4-1 teams in conference play, outgaining opponents by 1.1 yards per play. The Bulls are actually a top-15 team in yards per play allowed for the season. Central Michigan’s YPP disparity is even bigger than that in conference play. Buffalo lost to Akron and they’ve played arguably the weakest conference schedule. Central Michigan has played a weak one, too, but I think there’s some smoke and mirrors with the Bulls. I actually have Central Michigan -7 in my Week 12 College Football Power Ratings.
Pick: Central Michigan -1.5
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 12 games on our Pro Picks Page.
