Top College Football Betting Trends:
As we approach the opening of the 2024 season, I thought I’d dig through the VSiN database and share 40 of the top team situational trends that will be in play at numerous points throughout the season. Along with the trends, I’ve offered up my own explanation as to why the trend might be thriving, as well as the potential game(s) in which they could be in play.
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KANSAS STATE is 40-21-2 ATS since 2019
Steve’s thoughts: Head coach Chris Kleiman has a good pulse on his team, as it has performed consistently in his six-year tenure. This year could prove to be a challenge with QB Will Howard now at Ohio State, but until there is a reason otherwise, don’t feel bad about backing the Wildcats.
Potential 2024 spots: All games, starting 8/31 vs. UT-Martin
PITTSBURGH is 33-16 Over the total since 2020
Steve’s thoughts: Pittsburgh has been an underrated offensive program in recent years under head coach Pat Narduzzi, as well as a consistently below-average defensive team. Oddsmakers seemingly have not picked up on the lengthy trend either. With nine offensive starters and four defensive starters back for 2024, the trend of higher-scoring games figures to continue.
Potential 2024 spots: All games, starting 8/31 vs. Kent State
ALABAMA is on a 20-7 ATS surge at home
Steve’s thoughts: If you need any more evidence to convince yourself that Alabama boasts one of, if not the best home-field advantages in all of college football, this point spread record should prove it. The Tide are 26-1 outright in these games.
Potential 2024 spots: Seven home games, starting 8/31 vs. Western Kentucky
OREGON STATE is 25-5 ATS in home games over the last five seasons
Steve’s thoughts: The Pac-12 folded around Oregon State over the last year, leaving what looks to be a much less formidable home schedule in 2024. The Beavers are a team rebuilding under first-time head coach Trent Bray, but more success at home should keep the program in good shape.
Potential 2024 spots: Seven home games, starting 8/31 vs. Idaho State
UNLV is on a 17-4 ATS run in non-conference games and 12-4 ATS run following a straight-up win
Steve’s thoughts: The Runnin’ Rebels have become a trendy team in recent years, some very good, some very bad. Head coach Barry Odom’s team went 10-4 ATS for bettors last year and continued building on some angles that began even before he arrived.
Potential 2024 spots: Five non-conference games, starting 8/31 at Houston
LIBERTY is on a 12-3 ATS run as an underdog
Steve’s thoughts: Although this trend didn’t play out well for Liberty in last year’s Fiesta Bowl, the Flames have played well recently when underrated by oddsmakers. Unfortunately, as head coach Jamey Chadwell’s team has become the class of Conference USA and always plays one of the country’s easiest schedules, the angle doesn’t come up all that often.
Potential 2024 spots: Only one realistic underdog scenario on the schedule, 9/28 at Appalachian State
BOISE STATE has rebounded from its last 13 outright losses by going 11-2 ATS in the follow-up contest
Steve’s thoughts: One of the signs of a strong and well-coached college football program is the ability to bounce back immediately after losses. Boise State is always among the front runners in the Mountain West because it responds well after setbacks.
Potential 2024 spots: First realistic post-loss opportunity, 9/21 vs. Portland State
NEW MEXICO STATE has gone 26-14 ATS overall over the last three seasons, including 11-3 ATS as a favorite
Steve’s thoughts: If any trend to this point faces a challenge in continuing, it is this one. This will be a true rebuilding season in Las Cruces, as NMSU has just seven starters back and a brand-new coaching staff. My numbers call for the Aggies to be favored in five games.
Potential 2024 spots: First favorite opportunity, the 8/31 opener versus SE Missouri State
KANSAS has been on a huge totals run, going 32-15 Over the total since 2019
Steve’s thoughts: Kansas has thrilled college football fans and bettors recently with its explosive play and high-scoring, thrilling games. Last year, the Jayhawks averaged over 10 yards per pass attempt, second only to LSU. And that was even with QB Jalon Daniels missing much of the season. He’s back, and the explosiveness should be as well.
Potential 2024 spots: All games, starting 8/29 vs. Lindenwood
WEST VIRGINIA has enjoyed a strong home-field advantage over the last four seasons, going 16-6 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: Being the furthest program east in the Big 12 in recent years has not hurt West Virginia’s ability to perform well at home in games. WVU has a passionate fan base, and Mountaineer Field has a long history of being a tough place to play. Under head coach Neal Brown, that trend has continued.
Potential 2024 spots: Seven home games in all, and the first is a big one, 8/31 vs. Penn State
GEORGIA STATE has done its best work away from home in recent seasons, 19-6 ATS in the last 25 road/neutral contests
Steve’s thoughts: Georgia State is one of the top five performing point spread teams in the country over the last four years. The Panthers’ best success has come away from home, and this includes three straight convincing bowl victories.
Potential 2024 spots: GSU plays six road games, including four straight in October/November. The first one is the opener at Georgia Tech on 8/31
RUTGERS has gone 11-3 ATS in its last 14 non-conference games
Steve’s thoughts: I’m not sure anyone could ever convince me that Rutgers’ move to the Big Ten ever made geographical or competitive sense for the program. That said, I’m not surprised to see a trend indicating that the Scarlet Knights’ best success in recent years has come in non-Big Ten games.
Potential 2024 spots: Rutgers plays three non-conference games , starting 8/29 vs. Howard
SAM HOUSTON STATE boasts a 14-3 ATS mark in its last 17 lined games as an underdog
Steve’s thoughts: It’s not surprising to see recently promoted FBS teams faring well as underdogs, as these programs have a natural built-in chip on their shoulder to prove they can compete at the highest level. However, this trend started prior to last year, so it’s pretty clear that head coach KC Keeler uses the underdog role to motivate his team to play well.
Potential 2024 spots: My numbers show SHSU as an underdog in seven games this season, starting first at Rice on 8/31
MICHIGAN is 29-13-1 ATS overall in the last three seasons, including 16-5 ATS in road/neutral games
Steve’s thoughts: With all of the change that has occurred at Michigan since the national title game win in January, there are a lot of analysts, including myself, who have written off the Wolverines’ chances for 2024. However, this is a team on a massive run of point-spread success, particularly on the road, and won’t go down without a fight.
Potential 2024 spots: Michigan doesn’t play a road game till an October 5th title game rematch at Washington
LOUISIANA TECH totals have gone 31-15-1 Over since 2019
Steve’s thoughts: Louisiana Tech has allowed over 33 PPG in four straight seasons. If you’re looking for any primary reasons why the Bulldogs tend to go Over on most totals, that would be the place to start. Only five starters are back on the defensive side of the ball for 2024, don’t expect a ton of improvement.
Potential 2024 spots: LTU’s opener is at home versus Nicholls State on 8/31, first FBS game is 9/14 at NC State
SOUTH CAROLINA owns an impressive 11-4 ATS mark as a favorite over the last four seasons
Steve’s thoughts: You have to give some credit to head coach Shane Beamer at South Carolina. His team generally wins the games it is supposed to win. The problem is that in the SEC, there aren’t many times per season that the Gamecocks are “supposed” to win.
Potential 2024 spots: I have South Carolina expected to be favored four times, starting 8/31 at home versus Old Dominion
TULSA is 22-8-1 ATS in road/neutral games over the last four seasons
Steve’s thoughts: Head coach Kevin Wilson’s first Tulsa team didn’t do a whole lot well last year. However, it did continue a long running trend of bringing back profits for backers in road games. The Golden Hurricane were 4-1-1 ATS on the road and are now a 73%+ cover in road games over the last five seasons.
Potential 2024 spots: Tulsa plays six road games, including 9/7 at Arkansas State
LSU is 20-7 Over the total in the two-year head coach Brian Kelly era
Steve’s thoughts: Points have been plenty in the two-year tenure of head coach Brian Kelly at LSU, so much so that oddsmakers seemingly can’t keep up. Last year, the Tigers led the country with 45.5 PPG. However, they also allowed 28 PPG. Even with Heisman Trophy-winning QB Jayden Daniels off to the NFL, I wouldn’t expect an overhaul in how they play.
Potential 2024 spots: LSU’s opener versus USC has fireworks written all over it
MARYLAND has gone 15-6 ATS in its last 21 non-Big Ten games
Steve’s thoughts: Like fellow East Coaster Rutgers, Maryland has also found the going much tougher in the Big Ten than out of conference. Head coach Mike Locksley’s team is rebuilding somewhat in 2024 but has three very winnable non-conference tilts to beef up the record.
Potential 2024 spots: Maryland hosts Connecticut in the season opener on 8/31
TENNESSEE has throttled non-conference opponents in the last three seasons, 11-1 ATS in the last 12
Steve’s thoughts: Like many SEC teams, Tennessee fattens its stats and builds confidence in non-league games against overmatched opponents. The Vols are in a current 11-1 ATS surge in non-SEC games and play four such opponents in 2024
Potential 2024 spots: Tennessee’s non-conference slate starts 8/31 vs. FCS Chattanooga
WASHINGTON is just 2-7 ATS in its last seven games coming off outright losses
Steve’s thoughts: Washington went undefeated through its first 14 games of 2023, so this trend never got tested. However, in 2024, with new head coach Jedd Fisch taking over a team with just five starters returning and playing in a new and tougher conference, there should be multiple chances to take advantage.
Potential 2024 spots: Washington could and should go undefeated in September, but October/November will be a different animal
VANDERBILT is on a 2-10 ATS skid following a straight-up win
Steve’s thoughts: Vanderbilt has not been known for its ability to build lengthy winning streaks in college football in recent years. Much of that is due to this brutal trend showing the Commodores cover in just 16% of games following an outright victory.
Potential 2024 spots: I have Vandy as a double-digit favorite in two games this year. The follow-up games would be 9/14 at Georgia State and 10/26 versus Texas
TENNESSEE has struggled in the underdog role, going 4-12 ATS as such since 2020
Steve’s thoughts: I wrote earlier about Tennessee’s tremendous success in non-conference games in recent seasons. The Vols are almost always favored in such scenarios. The equal and opposite reaction occurs when Tennessee plays as an underdog. In that case, this program has struggled.
Potential 2024 spots: I have Tennessee as an underdog three times this season, starting 9/21 at Oklahoma
FLORIDA has gone just 5-15 ATS in non-conference action over the last five seasons
Steve’s thoughts: Florida has been an interesting Power 5 team in that it tends to underachieve when it plays non-SEC competition lately. If the Gators are to make a bowl game again in 2024, this can’t continue since they play what is the toughest schedule in the country, and the SEC portion is the majority of the reason for it.
Potential 2024 spots: Florida’s opener on 8/31 at home versus Miami will be a defining game for both programs
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 9-26 over the last five seasons in conference action
Steve’s thoughts: It’s never a good sign when you play in the worst conference in the country and still aren’t covering point spreads on a regular basis. FIU has been the worst team in the nation in terms of conference ATS record in recent years, contributing a ton to why it hasn’t played in a bowl game since 2019.
Potential 2024 spots: FIU’s first of eight conference tilts is 9/28 vs. Louisiana Tech
STANFORD is on a brutal 4-15 ATS skid in home games
Steve’s thoughts: To be quite honest, in my opinion, this is the first trend on this list that I feel strongly that has a chance to turn positively in 2024. Second-year head coach Troy Taylor has a very experienced team coming back, and for the first time in a while, Stanford will enjoy a regional edge over the teams it hosts, with four ACC teams and two non-conference foes making the trip out to Palo Alto. However, the Cardinal still have to prove they can play well at home before I would invest in them.
Potential 2024 spots: Stanford plays a Friday night home opener versus TCU on 8/30
NORTHERN ILLINOIS is just 4-16-1 ATS in its last 21 home games
Steve’s thoughts: Northern Illinois has been on an up-and-down roller coaster ride over its last six seasons of college football. The Huskies have gotten into a pattern of following their winning seasons with losing campaigns and vice versa. One thing that could help their consistency a lot is better performance in front of the home folks. Having covered the spread in just 20% of their last 20 games leaves a lot to be desired.
Potential 2024 spots: NIU hosts six games in 2024, starting 8/31 versus Western Illinois
IOWA is on a huge totals run of 42-20 Under
Steve’s thoughts: The trend of Iowa’s offense being woeful is no hidden secret amongst those following college football. However, despite miniscule totals posted by oddsmakers, this defensive-oriented team continues to go Under over 2/3 of the time. In my opinion, something has to radically change for me to start going against this angle.
Potential 2024 spots: Iowa’s first three games are at home, where opponents find the going tough against the Hawkeyes’ defense, starting 8/31 vs. Illinois State
KENT STATE has gone just 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games as an underdog
Steve’s thoughts: Even in the high-scoring days under former head coach Sean Lewis, Kent State struggled to perform well in the underdog role for bettors. I guess it’s hard to beat point spreads when you’re consistently allowing high 30s in points per game each season. KSU’s offense again looks to be the better unit in 2024, meaning I wouldn’t expect a change to their underdog performance.
Potential ’24 spots: Kent State opens as a heavy underdog at Pitt on 8/31
ARIZONA STATE is 2-8 ATS over the last three seasons in non-conference play
Steve’s thoughts: Arizona State has struggled in non-conference games over the last three seasons. How will that impact the 2024 season now that the Sun Devils are playing what would be 10 former non-conference foes? The Big 12 is unfamiliar territory for ASU. We’ll see what happens.
Potential 2024 spots: ASU’s slate starts with a non-league tilt versus Wyoming on 8/31
LOUISIANA TECH is 6-17 ATS in conference games over the last three seasons
Steve’s thoughts: Louisiana Tech has gone exactly 1-7 ATS in two of the last three seasons of Conference USA play. Mind you, CUSA is not exactly known for its superiority. This is a huge sign of underachieving and a big reason the Bulldogs are off back-to-back-to-back 3-9 campaigns.
Potential 2024 spots: Louisiana Tech’s league slate starts 9/28 at FIU
BALL STATE’s totals have gone 31-14 Under over the last four seasons
Steve’s thoughts: The games on this Ball State under trend have averaged about 48 PPG production combined for the teams. The average college football total during this span has been about 54. You do the math, but perhaps caution is in order for 2024, as head coach Mike Neu’s team has a lot more experience back on the offensive side of the ball than on defense.
Potential 2024 spots: Louisiana Tech’s league slate starts 9/28 at FIU
NEW MEXICO is on an extended 25-52-1 ATS skid overall since 2017
Steve’s thoughts: New head coach Bronco Mendenhall has a pretty strong resume in college football. His task here in Albuquerque is monumental, however, as his 2024 team has just nine starters back and is on a prolonged losing stretch. No wonder the Lobos’ season win total is set at just 2.
Potential 2024 spots: New Mexico’s season opens with a difficult FCS game on 8/24 versus Montana State
FLA ATLANTIC is on a 4-15 ATS skid in the last 19 games coming off a straight-up victory
Steve’s thoughts: Since Lane Kiffin left FAU for Ole Miss, the Owls have not only dropped off significantly overall, but they’ve proven to be very inconsistent as well. One of the major problems over those last four seasons has been the inability to string multiple wins together. As such, they haven’t seen a bowl game since 2020.
Potential 2024 spots: I wouldn’t expect this trend to arise for sure for FAU until at least Week 4 after hosting FIU
PITTSBURGH has gone 0-6 ATS in the last six games as a road underdog
Steve’s thoughts: Typically, I demand more than a six-game data sample when declaring a trend valuable, but the fact that so few of these six games were even competitive in terms of the line is eye-opening. For instance, in its game last year at Notre Dame, the Panthers were catching 20-1/2 and lost 58-7. None of the others were that bad, but were also not close.
Potential 2024 spots: I have Pitt as an underdog in all five road games, starting 9/7 at Cincinnati
TEMPLE has struggled on the road over the last three seasons, 4-12 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: Temple’s football program is going through a rough patch, 10-33 overall, dating back to 2020. Not a real surprise to see that the Owls have had a hard time covering point spreads on the road. College football bettors that back terrible teams on the road deserve to lose. Don’t be one of those bettors.
Potential 2024 spots: Temple’s first road test is a tough one at Oklahoma on 8/30
MIAMI (OH) is on a 28-15 UNDER the total run over the last four seasons
Steve’s thoughts: Miami (OH) vaulted to the top of the MAC last year with a record-setting defense that allowed just 15.9 PPG. That was a major reason why the Redhawks continued a recent trend under head coach Chuck Martin of totals going Under. It has been five straight years now that Miami has had more totals go Under than Over.
Potential 2024 spots: Their first game at Northwestern on 8/31 figures to be a dogfight where the first team to 20 wins
VIRGINIA TECH has gone just 4-19 ATS in its last 19 games following up an outright win
Steve’s thoughts: Prognosticators of college football, including myself, seem to be all-in on Virginia Tech for 2024, following up their 7-6 season and blowout of Tulane in the Military Bowl. However, if head coach Brett Pry’s team is to reach its goals, it will have to get a lot better in managing success. The Hokies have been downright awful in coming back after wins lately.
Potential 2024 spots: I could see this trend arising in any of the week 2-5 games, starting with a home tilt versus Marshall on 9/7
GEORGIA TECH is just 5-18 ATS as a favorite since 2018
Steve’s thoughts: This trend dates back to 2018, so for a Power 5 football team to only be favored 23 times in six full seasons says a lot about the strength of that program. When teams aren’t favored very often, they can struggle with that unfamiliarity.
Potential 2024 spots: According to my numbers, Georgia Tech will be favored three times, starting with an 8/31 matchup versus Georgia State
CHARLOTTE has struggled the last two seasons at home, 2-10 ATS
Steve’s thoughts: Head coach Biff Poggi was expected to bring the excitement to Charlotte. However, a 3-9 season in his first year and just 17.5 PPG offensively has squelched any of the positive feelings. With his 49ers coming off back-to-back 1-5 ATS seasons at home, things are going to have to change quickly for Poggi to stick around long-term.
Potential 2024 spots: Charlotte has a difficult home opener versus James Madison on 8/31
