Today we have one of the greatest and most patriotic sporting events on tap as Army faces Navy for the 126th time with the Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy up for grabs. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for this annual rivalry showdown using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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3 p.m. ET: Army vs Navy (-6.5, 38.5)
This neutral site grudge match will be played at M&T Bank Stadium, home of the Baltimore Ravens.
Army (6-5) has won three of their last four and just took down UTSA 27-24, winning outright as 8.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Navy (9-2, ranked 22nd) has won two straight and just upset Memphis 28-17, winning outright as 4-point road dogs.
This line opened with Navy listed as a 4.5-point neutral site favorite.
Sharps have laid the points with the Midshipmen, steaming Navy up from -4.5 to -6.5. Some books even touched as high as Navy -7, at which point some inflated dog buyback hit Army +7 and dropped the line back down to Navy -6.5 where it stands on gameday.
At DraftKings, Navy is receiving 73% of spread bets and 74% of spread dollars. At Circa, Navy is taking in 61% of spread bets and 62% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a one-way Pro and Joe bet discrepancy in favor of the Midshipmen.
Navy has the edge offensively, averaging 30.5 PPG compared to 22.6 PPG for Army.
Navy enjoys some de-facto home field advantage, as this game will be played in Maryland, not far from Annapolis. The Midshipmen also enjoy a 2-day rest advantage, having last played on November 27th compared to Army last playing on November 29th.
In terms of the total, it opened at 38.5, rose to 39.5 and has come back down to 38.5 where it stands now.
At DraftKings, the under is receiving 43% of bets and 54% of dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split indicating a line freeze in favor of the under, as the total hasn’t budged off the opener despite the pubic leaning over.
The under matches a favorite wiseguy betting system referred to “Military Academy Unders.”
Because Army and Navy run the ball so often, it leads to lower scoring games with fewer possessions because the clock keeps running. Also, both teams practice against the run, which makes both defenses better equipped to stop it.
Army ran the ball on 86% of their snaps this season, the most in College Football. Meanwhile, Navy ran the ball on 80% of their snaps, ranking the 3rd most.
From 2006 to 2021, the under went an astounding 16-0 in this run-heavy matchup. However, the over has gone 2-1 over the past three seasons. Last year, the over 39.5 cashed as Navy beat Army 31-13. That marked the highest scoring matchup since 2005.
In 2023, the under 38.5 cashed by the hook as Army beat Navy 17-11. In 2022, the over 32.5 won as Army beat Navy 20-17 but it took double overtime to get there. That game was tied 10-10 at the end of regulation before 17 additional points were scored in both combined overtimes.
The forecast calls for low 40s with cloudy skies and mild 5 MPH winds.
